Open 521: Jungle Republic (Alright. We'll call it a draw)

Alduskkel · Post Post #1125 (ISO) » Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:27 pm

You might be right, but what's to stop the Mafia from only claiming if they are run up for a lynch? You're suggesting they should just claim now if they're in the pool of possible wolves.

Alduskkel · Post Post #1126 (ISO) » Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:36 pm

If it's 4p lylo and...

1. I'm Town, I want to lynch a Werewolf and then a Mafioso to win.
2. I'm Mafia, I want to lynch a Werewolf and then a Townie to win. Alternatively, I want to lynch a Townie and then dodge the nightkill to win. I can potentially accomplish either of these things if I don't claim.
3. I'm Wolf, I want to lynch either a Townie or a Mafioso to win -- preferably the latter. If a Townie is lynched, I want to nightkill the Mafioso or lose.

If it's 4p and we no lynch, then the Werewolf is in the same situation as 4p lylo where they want to nightkill the Mafioso. In the 3p lylo afterwards, there should still be an unconfirmed townie left -- 50-50 win/lose.

Yggdra Union · Post Post #1127 (ISO) » Thu Oct 10, 2013 5:06 pm

Ooh.
Llama is actually town.
This is why I love replacement who actually do stuff.
-L

Yggdra Union · Post Post #1128 (ISO) » Thu Oct 10, 2013 5:09 pm

Actually wait a sec.

Llama if aldus is town and elle is not-wolf-like, who are the wolves?
Me and boom are confirmed not-wolf.

BOOMSHAKALAKA · Post Post #1129 (ISO) » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:26 pm

V/LA TIL sunday.

I am sick..

Lord Mhork · Post Post #1130 (ISO) » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:19 pm

Shattered Viewpoint replaces Om of the Nom effective immediately. Please thank him. Also the deadline will be reset to 8 days. Thank you for your patience.

Lord Mhork · Post Post #1131 (ISO) » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:21 pm

Vote Count 4.06

BOOMSHAKALAKA (1) LlamaFluff
Alduskkel (0)
elleheathen (1) BOOMSHAKALAKA
LlamaFluff (2) Shattered Viewpoint, Alduskkel
Yggdra Union (0)
Shattered Viewpoint (1) elleheathen

Not Voting:

Yggdra Union

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

V/LA-
BOOMSHAKALAKA 10/13

Night falls in (expired on 2013-10-19 01:19:00)

Shattered Viewpoint · Post Post #1132 (ISO) » Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:07 pm

What the holy hell.

Shattered Viewpoint · Post Post #1133 (ISO) » Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:10 pm

unvote

I have skimmed the last page or three. I need to read more in-depth.

elleheathen · Post Post #1134 (ISO) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:16 am

@mod - Gone for the weekend, V/LA until Sunday night

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1135 (ISO) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:06 pm

In post 1128, Yggdra Union wrote:Actually wait a sec.

Llama if aldus is town and elle is not-wolf-like, who are the wolves?
Me and boom are confirmed not-wolf.

I think its Ald and OOTN as wolves. I could somewhat call Ald town due to the N2 kill, if they weren't taking notes its one of those things that would be missed. I only saw it when doing an iso on Klick.

Also if you look at Ald-OOTN, they really don't show up on eachothers radar, but there is a lot of "OOTN is wolf with X" stuff coming from Ald, and remember all they would need is one mislynch here to win.

Mafia is probably Boom

@Ald - Incorrect interpretation of results isn't that strong of a town tell. I actually have seen strong scum basically make a "oh I must have been the cleared" in this exact setup off a breadcrumb which was really obviously not a result on them.

Alduskkel · Post Post #1136 (ISO) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:19 pm

In post 1135, LlamaFluff wrote:Mafia is probably Boom

How'd you arrive at that conclusion?

What do I gain by saying "Om is wolf with X" and preferring to lynch X rather than just going with "Om is town"? (Assuming I and OOTN are wolves together.)

In post 1135, LlamaFluff wrote:@Ald - Incorrect interpretation of results isn't that strong of a town tell. I actually have seen strong scum basically make a "oh I must have been the cleared" in this exact setup off a breadcrumb which was really obviously not a result on them.

What is this in response to?

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1137 (ISO) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:19 pm

In post 1136, Alduskkel wrote:
In post 1135, LlamaFluff wrote:Mafia is probably Boom
How'd you arrive at that conclusion?

Elimination of wolf reads + town reads

What do I gain by saying "Om is wolf with X" and preferring to lynch X rather than just going with "Om is town"? (Assuming I and OOTN are wolves together.)

Showing suspicion if the wagons shift there (which Boom already voted) seems like a way to be able to jump that direction if ever actually pressed to. Also it would keep the other non-wolf more on your side just due to basic association of trying to pair off.

In post 1135, LlamaFluff wrote:@Ald - Incorrect interpretation of results isn't that strong of a town tell. I actually have seen strong scum basically make a "oh I must have been the cleared" in this exact setup off a breadcrumb which was really obviously not a result on them.
What is this in response to?

Where you were saying that OOTN didn't realize that the seer claimed.

Misinterpret (intentional or accidental) is more likely to come from scum than ignorance of the claim. That post is why im a little hesitant to actually vote him though. It seems almost like the too bad of play for scum, but I can see scum trying to either put doubt on a result or interpret it to their gain.

That aside, why is being only on "town wagons" not a scumtell but a wolftell to you? As far as I can see its a complete null tell on the wolf side, mafia tell at best.

Alduskkel · Post Post #1138 (ISO) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:40 pm

1. Interesting. Haven't taken the time to analyze Boom, probably won't until it's important -- if it ever is (e.g. Boom might get NK'd).

2. I guess? It wouldn't look very good though. Also by "other non-wolf" do you mean elle? Because I don't think elle is on my side. Nor are you, if you meant yourself.

3. I feel similarly to you, actually. Om's play there seems downright insane.

4. I have never said that being only on town wagons was a wolf tell.

Shattered Viewpoint · Post Post #1139 (ISO) » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:05 am

So, here's the deal: Even though I've run this setup at least twice, I still don't get all the endgame ramifications.

Let's assume I'm town (for lack of a more believable assumption):

What's my best course of action?

Alduskkel · Post Post #1140 (ISO) » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:35 am

Lynch both Wolves in a row, then lynch the Mafia if necessary (i.e. if they don't get NK'd).

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1141 (ISO) » Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:07 am

In post 1090, Alduskkel wrote:Think I've said most of this before, but, TK just rode on three town wagons, and both TK and Aeronaut were lurkers who definitely didn't do anything town.

In post 1092, Alduskkel wrote:
elleheathen wrote:Okay. But how does being on 3 town wagons differentiate between wolf and mafia?

Especially considering that he's not on
either
of the mafia lynches?
Are you arguing to me that you're a wolf with Om? Seems pretty silly of you to not go through with the Aeronaut lynch, then.

Sure seems like you are saying "was only on town wagons" is a tell here and then dodging the response from elle correctly calling it as scummy to me. Granted elle isn't entirely right in her response but its the right path.

"Being on town wagons" really shouldn't account for someone being wolf or not here, mafia or not it can be used as a tell but wolf really would be in the same dark that town is for trying to kill mafia. A non-wolf flip is a non-wolf flip, it would be hard to really be able to make the case that they were intentionally trying to get a town lynch instead of a not-wolf lynch. Using voting records in this way is scummy.

@SV - If you are mafia you should claim it as its a forced draw.

Alduskkel · Post Post #1142 (ISO) » Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:10 am

LlamaFluff wrote:"Being on town wagons" really shouldn't account for someone being wolf or not here, mafia or not it can be used as a tell but wolf really would be in the same dark that town is for trying to kill mafia. A non-wolf flip is a non-wolf flip, it would be hard to really be able to make the case that they were intentionally trying to get a town lynch instead of a not-wolf lynch.

...I hadn't thought of that, actually. CURSE YOU MULTIBALL

(That said, those quotes don't demonstrate me saying being on 3 town wagons is a wolf tell. I was saying it was a scum tell.)

LlamaFluff wrote:@SV - If you are mafia you should claim it as its a forced draw.

No, it isn't.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1143 (ISO) » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:02 pm

In post 1142, Alduskkel wrote:
LlamaFluff wrote:"Being on town wagons" really shouldn't account for someone being wolf or not here, mafia or not it can be used as a tell but wolf really would be in the same dark that town is for trying to kill mafia. A non-wolf flip is a non-wolf flip, it would be hard to really be able to make the case that they were intentionally trying to get a town lynch instead of a not-wolf lynch.
...I hadn't thought of that, actually. CURSE YOU MULTIBALL

(That said, those quotes don't demonstrate me saying being on 3 town wagons is a wolf tell. I was saying it was a scum tell.)

Why is it a scumtell even in that case? That argument can be equally applied to just about the entire thread since no one has a voting record with a wolf flip attached to it.

"Has been on town wagons" would be like doing that in a mountainous in a 2:3 endgame and saying that's a solid tell.

Yggdra Union · Post Post #1144 (ISO) » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:04 pm

All right. Screw this.
We're maf.

I did the calculation over and over again and this is actually gonna end with a draw.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1145 (ISO) » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:07 pm

If there is a counter now is the time to throw it out there.

Yggdra Union · Post Post #1146 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 1:34 pm

VOTE: SV
Let's get dat wagon rolling now

Shattered Viewpoint · Post Post #1147 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:38 pm

Yggdra, are you following Ald's plan? If so, why do you think I'm a wolf?

unvote

Vote: Yggdra

Yggdra Union · Post Post #1148 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:43 pm

I love how ppl are keep forgetting that I can't be wolf.

Why? Because PoE.

Yggdra Union · Post Post #1149 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:47 pm

Srsly I'm so done with this now.
If SV is not wolf then gg wp wolf.