A uPick of Ice & Fire - Day 12 - #REKT?


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Post Post #2325 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:16 am

Post by ooba »

@Stupendos:
Took a look at your original case:

Nacho has made opportunistic votes more than once. He voted me when his reasoning was "resorting" which is BS.

- Can't argue that there was no logic to back up this vote here. But the vote was not opportunistic. This would have been the third vote on you & both votes by Tammy and Messiah weren't fresh i.e. not a rising wagon.

Then he voted Thor without reasoning.

- He does present reasoning later when asked about it about Syryana. (i.e. he preferred a Thor lynch to mine - "ooba wagon sucks because ooba is town.")

Then he jumped on the SD wagon. Then he went back to Thor without saying anything.

- Deadline voting is neutral. SD vote and Thor vote were both very close to the deadline.

I feel like his attempts at scumhunting this game have been weak. There are a lot of simple questions like "Why?" that don't seem to be truly scumhunting.

- Cannot comment on the questioning style of scum hunting.
- For me, his D1 play was solid town. Currently, the most disconcerting part about Nat is that his posting levels have really tanked. So your 'lurking' argument has merit. (And I haven't read Walking Dead but backing off posting levels seems a bit silly). While I still feel confident enough to label as "weak town" read - I wish the earlier Nautilius would come back.

So yes - I won't be backing that lynch. However, if you do decide to pursue other wagons, I promise good things with a SpyreX lynch.
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Post Post #2326 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:56 am

Post by The Alchemist »

Getting to this tomorrow.
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Post Post #2327 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:52 am

Post by kanyeknowsbest »

In post 2320, Zdenek wrote:Kanye's cageyness is annoying - he's refusing to give meta references to Spyrex's quickhammering as town.
????

im not going tow aste my time digging that shit up.
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Post Post #2328 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:58 am

Post by kanyeknowsbest »

2 elaborate, if the possibility of evidence of my statement changes your alignment readon spyrex, maybe you should be inquiring w. him about it. if my bringing up the counterargument to his wagon affects your read on me, and it is clear that i will not be assed to find examples, what does that tell you about my alignment? does the truth of the statement (and therefore the existence of that evidence) affect that read then? if so do you plan on taking a look to verify whether it is true or not yourself?
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Post Post #2329 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:01 am

Post by kanyeknowsbest »

i think i want to lynch zed. all game it feels like he has been grasping at things that could potentially be "scum tells" for the sake of hitting on them but making zero attempt at discerning intent behind things. i dont feel like any of this displayed thought processes are genuine or town in nature at all.
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Post Post #2330 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:09 pm

Post by Cephrir »

In post 2329, kanyeknowsbest wrote:i think i want to lynch zed. all game it feels like he has been grasping at things that could potentially be "scum tells" for the sake of hitting on them but making zero attempt at discerning intent behind things. i dont feel like any of this displayed thought processes are genuine or town in nature at all.
I can kinda see this. He hasn't felt as present and aggressive as he did in my past experience with him. It's certainly better than the AGar wagon and probably the SpyreX wagon as well. Messiah and Garruk remain the best votes from my perspective though. It's worth noting that I don't especially buy Tierce (I think)'s argument for "if he was scum Garruk wouldn't have done XYZ things with regards to his softclaim dealio" 'cause that argument is both crappy and opaque as fuck so I can't actually judge it on its merits if it has any.
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Post Post #2331 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:19 pm

Post by Zdenek »

In post 2321, Benmage wrote:Zdenek bullet the spyrex's case please.
PeaceBringer got called scum and replaced out. My experience is that do this disproportionately more often than town. Aside from that despite posting quite a lot, there's nothing alignment indicative coming from PB.
Displaced did nothing.
Spyrex hammered Amrun. There's nothing town motived in that.
Plus his read on me looks contrived, since he's not scum reading you over your Thor interactions, but I'll admit that I'm biased there.
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Post Post #2332 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:21 pm

Post by Cephrir »

Oh, and the zero vote Benmage wagon is still great too.
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Post Post #2333 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:23 pm

Post by Zdenek »

In post 2328, kanyeknowsbest wrote:2 elaborate, if the possibility of evidence of my statement changes your alignment readon spyrex, maybe you should be inquiring w. him about it. if my bringing up the counterargument to his wagon affects your read on me, and it is clear that i will not be assed to find examples, what does that tell you about my alignment? does the truth of the statement (and therefore the existence of that evidence) affect that read then? if so do you plan on taking a look to verify whether it is true or not yourself?
Kanye, you're defending him over a pretty terrible move. You being unwilling to back that up does affect my read of you. Spyrex has a lot of games and going through them to look for quickhammers will take a long time. If you have a examples in mind, you should just post references to the games.
In post 2329, kanyeknowsbest wrote:i think i want to lynch zed. all game it feels like he has been grasping at things that could potentially be "scum tells" for the sake of hitting on them but making zero attempt at discerning intent behind things. i dont feel like any of this displayed thought processes are genuine or town in nature at all.
Oh dear lord. Tell me the town intent that you think there is in Spyrex's quickhammer.
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Post Post #2334 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:25 pm

Post by Tierce »

In post 2331, Zdenek wrote:PeaceBringer got called scum and replaced out. My experience is that do this disproportionately more often than town.
Wrong.
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Post Post #2335 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:25 pm

Post by Zdenek »

In post 2334, Tierce wrote:
In post 2331, Zdenek wrote:PeaceBringer got called scum and replaced out. My experience is that do this disproportionately more often than town.
Wrong.
I'm pretty sure that it's not.
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Post Post #2336 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:56 pm

Post by Tierce »

In post 2335, Zdenek wrote:
In post 2334, Tierce wrote:
In post 2331, Zdenek wrote:PeaceBringer got called scum and replaced out. My experience is that do this disproportionately more often than town.
Wrong.
I'm pretty sure that it's not.
And I'm pretty sure that it is. Not only do you have to take into account PeaceBringer's recent history on the site, but also that Town will often not react to being called scum as you think they should. Everyone is different. And with Town:scum proportions and the fact that replacement ratios are frankly as null as can be as seen on several attempts at analyzing replacement ratios in the post, the burden is on you to prove how are scum more likely to replace out when being called scum than Town. Everyone is always being called scum all the time, you can't pick and choose and say that your experience shows that it is scum who primarily replace out under those circumstances.
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Post Post #2337 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 1:41 pm

Post by Alfred Borden »

Other head here, just got caught up and want to address a couple of things right now:
In post 2300, SpyreX wrote:The thor lynch hurts my head, but I will say this: its the right brand of hurt that I bet that is a way heavy town wagon. When VCA time comes, remember that.
Erm, ok, how are you arriving at any sort of conclusion w.r.t. that wagon given that the wagon formed basically out of deadline rush?

@Alchemist:
What do you think of Andrius' posts before the replace out? (This is something me and my other head have been discussing but I want your thoughts here.)
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Post Post #2338 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 4:04 pm

Post by Nautilius »

In post 2302, kanyeknowsbest wrote:agree w your towns but im starting to slip on pbj
Elli told me that chesskid is working on his senior thesis.
We both like the fact that he didn't announce it.
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Post Post #2339 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 4:05 pm

Post by PrideandJoy »

I on the other hand am not doing shit, but you get a rock-solid townread on Shadoweh out of me *meta-approved* so there you go.
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Post Post #2340 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 4:20 pm

Post by Tierce »

AGar--when you get back, less anger, less frustration, less pointless aggression, please. Need you to be as objective as possible. Hope everything is well.
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Post Post #2341 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 4:32 pm

Post by Nautilius »

In post 2300, SpyreX wrote:Benmage
Cephrir
Garruk Relentless
Messiah Complex
quadz08
Shadoweh
Tammy
Tierce
Tierce is town.
Shadoweh is town.
Messiah
feels
very, very town but I need to finish a reread to be sure.
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Post Post #2342 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 4:44 pm

Post by Tammy »

In post 2341, Nautilius wrote:
In post 2300, SpyreX wrote:Benmage
Cephrir
Garruk Relentless
Messiah Complex
quadz08
Shadoweh
Tammy
Tierce
Tierce is town.
Shadoweh is town.
Messiah
feels
very, very town but I need to finish a reread to be sure.
AHEM.
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Post Post #2343 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 4:59 pm

Post by Tammy »

I'm considering mcs case on Elle, though I still think spyrex is a good vote, his post was kinda mehsville but I did like some of his points on Elle.

Bordempire did you guys ever get a chance to look at Elle's scum game. I want to check out a town game to see if what I'm thinking I'm seeing is really a thing or not. Hopefully I'll have time to do that tomorrow.
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Post Post #2344 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:03 pm

Post by Alfred Borden »

In post 2343, Tammy wrote:Bordempire did you guys ever get a chance to look at Elle's scum game. I want to check out a town game to see if what I'm thinking I'm seeing is really a thing or not. Hopefully I'll have time to do that tomorrow.
I did! Basically I thought there was a hell of a lot more posturing in her game but I need to check out that one town game she has that just finished (will do it tomorrow since I'm about to head to bed).
Aside from that, her play still read pretty town for me the last time I checked.
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Post Post #2345 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:37 pm

Post by Nautilius »

and tammy's town too.
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Post Post #2346 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:40 pm

Post by Tierce »

In post 2345, Nautilius wrote:and tammy's town too.
Wow. Pushover.
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Post Post #2347 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:56 pm

Post by SpyreX »

quadz wrote:Spy that's a decent post with some stuff in it, and the ponits on Elle are good. However, I don't understand your point on AGar (that case on SD was perfectly valid, and he was far from the only person to make it; why is he the only one that gets called out on it?), and possibly more importantly, you're now justifying your hammer with "well now that I have read the whole game, I still would have done it." That's not a reason to do it in the first place, and I don't think there's town motivation to do so without having read the whole game.

My vote stays for now. (I am not jumping on a growing Ooba wagon, guys, this is how bad I think Spy's hammer was.)
In what universe is that case on SD 'perfectly valid'? There are some who were on him that were more legit than others, but parroting the volume of scum reads as some kind of magic tell sarcasm font isn't it. I didn't even blink an eye at it catching up.

I'm not 'justifying' it. I had reasons but even if I didn't I probably would have taken it - I'm just sayin after the fact I dont feel bad about it. If it was some kind of really bad wagon I shot through I'd have felt bad, at least. It is what it is. Replace into a hammer early? I'm takin it almost every time. This time it was just even more perfect.
ooba wrote:@SpyreX: Why the scum read on Syryana\The Alchemist?
A better question for everyone else apparently - why not?
I have to assume there's some secret ~meta~ or something because that iso is a lot of nothing. The ONE post that really seems to be doing anything is a discussion about Cephrir being scum because ~~sweet meta~~.
That slot is "that guy" who is always around at the parties but manages to duck out before the bill shows up.
LOL.

You should probably just self-vote.

I'm really confused about why so many people are saying thinks like Spyrex is bad, but LOL we can forgive him, vote someone else.

It's making me nervous.
LOL FORCED LOL LOLOL

I seriously would love to see this turn into vapor before the sun sets. With furious vengeance.

In other news kkb is nostradamus per 2329 vs 2331
Alfred Borden wrote:Erm, ok, how are you arriving at any sort of conclusion w.r.t. that wagon given that the wagon formed basically out of deadline rush?
Because the end of Day 1 is the kind of thing the scum-sandman sends to good baby scums each night when they deserve extra happy dreams.

Assuming you're not under heat as scum the only thing better than a bad lynch is no lynch at all. Given their druthers, scum would have left that claim alive forever. That end-of-day mad push was very town feeling most of the way through.
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I always lynch scum... sometimes they're just not mafia. :P

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Post Post #2348 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 6:34 pm

Post by Cephrir »

In post 2342, Tammy wrote:
In post 2341, Nautilius wrote:
In post 2300, SpyreX wrote:Benmage
Cephrir
Garruk Relentless
Messiah Complex
quadz08
Shadoweh
Tammy
Tierce
Tierce is town.
Shadoweh is town.
Messiah
feels
very, very town but I need to finish a reread to be sure.
AHEM.
This.

If you're doubting me Nacho we're going to need to have words and they will be words about you being scum.
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Post Post #2349 (ISO) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 7:06 pm

Post by Tierce »

In post 2348, Cephrir wrote:If you're doubting me Nacho we're going to need to have words and they will be words about you being scum.
Oi. Excuse me? How the hell are you treating someone who, to all appearances, is a Townread of yours, with a
threat
? You'd better call me Town or I'll call you scum! ...what is this crap? You're not interested in the nature of the Townread, you're interested in having it? Color me bothered.
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