A uPick of Ice & Fire - Day 12 - #REKT?

[PrideandJoy]

im willing to vote cephrir

(chesskid)

[Cephrir]

Nacho has only ever read me incorrectly when he was scum

[SpyreX]

Ohh meta.

Tierce remind me after this game there's a few things I want to soapbox about.

[Tierce]

You'll find no meta-hating support here, Ur-Quan. But support for

poorly

done meta analysis, sign me up~

Nacho has only ever read me incorrectly when he was scum

So what? That's no excuse to threaten him, and that's piss-poor threatening technique, even. Instead of laying back and seeing if he actually scumreads you so you can nail him to the wall with "hey guys this is Nacho scum and this is why", you're laying down a bullshit justification for trying to repress his read. Does everyone always manage to read everyone correctly? No. Does Nacho always manage to read everyone correctly? Ahahaha

no

. You're not interested in knowing why Nacho apparently doesn't have a full-blown Townread on you, or at least one he wants to bring up v. SpyreX. You're just trying to cow him.

And that, my friend, means I get to do this--
VOTE: Cephrir

Mew.

[Cephrir]

Psh. My opinion doesn't carry any weight. I'm not capable of cowing anything. I'm one guy in a game full of better players than himself. I don't make threats. That doesn't even mean anything to me.

I didn't say he always reads everyone correctly. I said he always reads me correctly. I am transparently easy to read on a meta basis, and Nacho is 100% effective at doing so. If you're looking for me to recant a binary read on him based almost entirely on this prepare to be disappointed.

[quadz08]

What case on SD, AGar was voting ooba and said SD's list was a null-tell

Looked back and you are correct. If so, then why did Spyrex present it like AGar was using that as a case? Or did Spyrex mean that AGar presenting it as null was, in fact, scummy?

Spyrex also just claimed his role interacts with hammers. He probably saw L-1, saw 'IF HAMMER = USE POWER' and thought 'I'M GOING TO VEGAS'.

This reasoning can go jump off a goddamned bridge. Unless his power is "hammer a dude or two and WIN GAME," it's not worth hammering

someone you cannot possibly have a read on

.

I'm really confused about why so many people are saying thinks like Spyrex is bad, but LOL we can forgive him, vote someone else.

It's making me nervous.

this post is so awful. I agree with the first sentence in theory, but I don't think there are actually many people saying that in practice, so it's basically "this sounds good I'll say it." The second sentence is just fucking terrible. Are the "so many people" saying that all scum? Bad bad bad. (Benmage puts it nicely when he says it's disingenuous.)

Kanye continues to be holy-shit levels of town, and his 2329 point is quite good.

AH AH AH NAUTILIUS WHAT THE FUCK IS YOUR POSTING GOD AGH GET IT OFF GET IT OFF. (Seriously, you come into the thread with "x and y are town, oh and z wants to be town? sure she's town too" and

nothing else

? no fuck that
VOTE: Naut

In what universe is that case on SD 'perfectly valid'? There are some who were on him that were more legit than others, but parroting the volume of scum reads as some kind of magic tell sarcasm font isn't it. I didn't even blink an eye at it catching up.

I'm not 'justifying' it. I had reasons but even if I didn't I probably would have taken it - I'm just sayin after the fact I dont feel bad about it. If it was some kind of really bad wagon I shot through I'd have felt bad, at least. It is what it is. Replace into a hammer early? I'm takin it almost every time. This time it was just even more perfect.

Clarify for me if you thought AGar was calling SD scum or null with what you quoted, please.
Also, show me examples of you taking that opportunity in the past, or expressing willingness to do so. Forgive me if I don't just take your word for it.

oh christ Cephrir's 2348 is just fucking awful. I will be watching that one with interest.

[ooba]

I can kinda see this. He hasn't felt as present and aggressive as he did in my past experience with him.

Specific game names please?

---

And I'm pretty sure that it is. Not only do you have to take into account PeaceBringer's recent history on the site, but also that Town will often not react to being called scum as you think they should. Everyone is different. And with Town:scum proportions and the fact that replacement ratios are frankly as null as can be as seen on several attempts at analyzing replacement ratios in the post,

the burden is on you to prove how are scum more likely to replace out when being called scum than Town

. Everyone is always being called scum all the time, you can't pick and choose and say that your experience shows that it is scum who primarily replace out under those circumstances.

The point to prove is not in general but specifically how PeaceBringer replaces out when pressured as scum (and) whether replacing out when questioned is alignment relevant for him.

Spoiler: Mollie's thoughts

Ok so here are all the finished games PeaceBringer's had since his return to the site: Wingate Mansion, La Isla de la Muerte, Antihero Mafia (cut very short due to thread implosion), Chef Mafia.

He was scum in two of them -- unfortunately, Antihero Mafia imploded way too quickly for the tell to be reliable. One thing I noticed is that he had an obscene amount of posts in Chef Mafia and I vaguely remember him being run up in that game as town + eventually being nightkilled (meaning he didn't replace out). Might be worth going back to his past to see if this was a problem then but I'm about to head to lunch and this might turn into a full on meta report so I want to do this when I'm more attentive.

so he was scum in 2, town in 2, replaced out both times as scum

that isn't why I originally said his replace was weird ohso long ago tho

Antihero Mafia [Game stopped, was scum]
La Ilsa de la Muerte [Town - Killed N2]
Chef Mafia [Town - Killed N3]
Wingate Mansion [Scum - Replaced out]
- TheGarantula was a dick to kuribo. PB said he cannot play with TG anymore and for him to replace out. TG offered to replace out but PB replaced out.
- Also got to mention that TG asked him about his Purple shoe vote and was hounding him about "Why?". This is similar to Thor pressuring him on the StupendosMan vote.

Not sure where mollie got the 2+2 figure since Antihero mafia does not count.

Nothing there to prove that is alignment irrelevant but too few instances to prove that it is his scum MO too.

@Alfred:

Meta seems to be your department - Did you get time to do the peace old games meta?

---

@SpyreX: Why the scum read on Syryana\The Alchemist?

A better question for everyone else apparently - why not?
I have to assume there's some secret ~meta~ or something because that iso is a lot of nothing. The ONE post that really seems to be doing anything is a discussion about Cephrir being scum because ~~sweet meta~~.
That slot is "that guy" who is always around at the parties but manages to duck out before the bill shows up.

Ok. Noted.

[Cephrir]

quadz: Context and history are things, but whatever.

ooba: I will link it when it ends.

[ooba]

I didn't get a chance to finish re-reading pages from 50 onwards yesterday. Here are my current reads based on the first re-read + end of D2 + D3 play. I've tried to verbalise my thoughts wherever possible.

- Three people who I remember being really townie early in the game - kanye, PnJ, Naut. Their posting levels sort of dropped down and I didn't feel as sure as I did when re-reading those parts. kanye still is a decent town read, Naut's a weaker one and PnJ is no longer town.
- Both Alfred and Naut put in a lot of effort into the game. The effort didn't look like scum's "effort for the sake of looking town" but felt genuine.
- Tammy's early D1 play was someone happy that they got their role and having fun with it. You cannot fake that.
- Cephrir\Zednek strike me as townies who speak their mind and sometimes make statements that are easily refutable\argued against\scummy. There's no "image management" on their side. Since my style is similar - I can relate and they feel town.
- AGar gets a temporary pass because their predecessor did good stuff. (for Andrius)
- I really didnt like that Stupdendos got a pass early on for his posts from a lot of people. However, one statement in particular comes to mind where he says he's trying better at his town game (or something to that effect) and his effort in scumhunting does seem genuine in it's own way.
- Sometime during my read - I placed Shadoweh in the weak town pile. I can't figure out why now.
- Quadz, even with all his ooba hate gives me a slight town vibe. Also for Quadz and AGar, I felt they pushed the ooba angle at times when scum would have backed off because sentiment of the majority had moved elsewhere.
- A lot of people called Benmage town because of meta reasons. And his play neither had town nor scum vibes for me. And there were times when I thought "Those many people can't be wrong. Weak town pile?". Every single time I came close to doing that, it didn't feel right so kept him in neutral.
- Sryana's initial few posts felt really good when I was actually playing the game. On the more methodical re-read, it was just neutral.
- Goat's 6 people claim really didn't do much for me. But I ISO'd them and "we held back the double vote to use the census" looks good.
- I hated Garruk during play. A lot of their posting was town during re-read. I've mentioned this before but I liked their defence of Tierce on D2.
- Similar to Shadoweh, I felt Tierce was town someone during the read and unlike other weak reads, this read got stronger.

Town

Tammy
Cephrir
elleheathen

Moderate Town

Tierce
Alfred Borden (Empire/Llamarble)
kanyeknowsbest
Zdenek

Weaker Town

Nautilius
Garruk Relentless
StupendousMan
AGar
~~~~~~~
SafetyDance
quadz08
Shadoweh

Neutral

Syryana\The Alchemist
Benmage
Prideandjoy
Goat on a Raft

Scum

Messiah Complex
PeaceBringer displaced SpyreX

So there they are. If Goat's 6 bad guys claim is right, I've obviously got someone people as town where they shouldn't be. But I like those town reads and would really *hate* to see a lynch of anyone above the "~~~~~~~~" line today.
I'm going back to re-read pages 50-80. I thought now's a good time to post this incase day ends early again.

[elleheathen]

Not just stupid - intentional.

VOTE: Spyrex

Is enough.

It takes a particularly ticklish brand of stones to call out the hammer even if it was fast.

Really? You thought you'd come into today without being called out for quickhammering without slot content or claim time? ...Really?

And 'fast' is an understatement. There's not even two hours (and only two posts) between the L-1 and your hammer - and what, you didn't expect someone to 'have the stones' to call you out for it?

I'm not buying into that whole PB replaces out as scum supposed meta tells or the lurking bit of displaced - this is solely because of that hammer. And

that

is enough.

[Tammy]

mod: I'll be v/la until Friday

I have an extremely important/busy week this week. I'll be able to follow along but probably not brain about anything.

[Alfred Borden]

I'm considering mcs case on Elle, though I still think spyrex is a good vote, his post was kinda mehsville but I did like some of his points on Elle.

Bordempire did you guys ever get a chance to look at Elle's scum game. I want to check out a town game to see if what I'm thinking I'm seeing is really a thing or not. Hopefully I'll have time to do that tomorrow.

Wow, she has a strong scumgame. I am impressed by her level of bubbly cuteness while scum.
Maybe I was completely wrong

Also I still think the scumodds on Agar are good. I'm not seeing much evidence of the matter of the thing explaining stuff.

[Alfred Borden]

No, Elleheathen is still probably town.

[Alfred Borden]

Benmage isn't doing much, which isn't a bad sign for him. And what he is doing isn't particularly objectionable.

Zdenek and Cephrir are the next two stale townreads to revisit.

[Eddard Stark]

Day 3, Vc 6

SpyreX (5) -

Tammy, ooba, Zdenek, elleheathen, Goat on a Raft

AGar (5) -

Goat on a Raft, Benmage, Garruk Relentless, The Alchemist, Alfred Borden

Garruk Relentless (2) -

AGar, kanyeknowsbest

Nautilius (2) -

StupendousMan, quadz08

ooba (2) -

Shadoweh, PrideandJoy

elleheathen (1) -

Messiah Complex

Cephrir (1) -

Tierce

Not voting (4)

:Cephrir, Nautilius, SpyreX, SafetyDance

With 21 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch

• Deadline Date: 25th of October at 16:05 EDT
  
• Deadline Countdown: (expired on 2013-10-25 04:30:01)
  
• elleheathen is V/la. Sd and AGar are V/la

Prodding Garruk Relentless, Messiah Complex, SafetyDance and Goat on a Raft.

[Garruk Relentless]

We dun get prodded. Shameful!

[Messiah Complex]

Is enough. It takes a particularly ticklish brand of stones to call out the hammer even if it was fast. Someone with more time: I'd love to see if there was activity from anyone on the wagon after Garruk posted and BEFORE I hammered.

And as for yesterdays hammer. Yea, I was only on 12. Now that I'm all caught up the only thing that would have given me pause is that there is no flips.

And I say pause. Because I would have still done it. Amrun was in my notes (which if someone reaaaaaaly wants to see and laugh at I guess I can post) from post 1 and that never changed. Riding the lurking dragon doesn't change that.

More importantly though: I have role-reasons for wanting that hammer. I also want this one.

I am struggling to find the words to describe how I feel about your comment on someone having the "balls" to call out your hammer. I guess the best way to put it is that you must have a brass set yourself to try and make someone out to be the reactionary one when your action was questionable at best and a pure scum move at worst. You admit that you were 12 pages deep when you flipped over to the last page to see Amrun at L-1 and, lucky day, hammered.

I also like the fact that you ask someone with more time to investigate what activity happened in thread after Garruk gave intent to hammer and your hammer, like there was so much activity that it would be impossible for you to wade through. Two posts were made in between his intent and your hammer. Two. One of them was a vote count update from the Mod, the other was a quick question from Cephrir. Then you pop in and hammer. And what excuse do you have for this action? A Monday Morning QB read on Amrun that you made postmortem and a vague reference to hammers relating to your role. We think that the reason that you are unable to adequately explain yourself is because there was no town motivation behind what you did. You cut short a townies ability to post when they had said they were going to, and someone else had already called them out and put a deadline on their activity. Hell, if you wanted to hammer you still could have after giving Amrun some time to complete the post she said she was doing. Does your role say anything about not being able to declare intent, or preventing them from claiming. The only reason we can figure you hammering the way you did was to prevent Amrun from being able to reveal any information that could be beneficial to the rest of us.

We believe that there is credence to the theory that Peace replaces out as scum where he wouldn't as town, and see his reason for replacing out to be suspect. Adding that to the absolute void that was displaced, and the abomination of a hammer and subsequently shitty response to town reactions from Spy there is no dissidence when we

Unvote

Vote: Spy

[Messiah Complex]

-Fishy

[kanyeknowsbest]

vote zed

[Benmage]

I'll check back tomorrow...

[SpyreX]

I am struggling to find the words to describe how I feel about your comment on someone having the "balls" to call out your hammer. I guess the best way to put it is that you must have a brass set yourself to try and make someone out to be the reactionary one when your action was questionable at best and a pure scum move at worst. You admit that you were 12 pages deep when you flipped over to the last page to see Amrun at L-1 and, lucky day, hammered.

I also like the fact that you ask someone with more time to investigate what activity happened in thread after Garruk gave intent to hammer and your hammer, like there was so much activity that it would be impossible for you to wade through. Two posts were made in between his intent and your hammer. Two. One of them was a vote count update from the Mod, the other was a quick question from Cephrir. Then you pop in and hammer. And what excuse do you have for this action? A Monday Morning QB read on Amrun that you made postmortem and a vague reference to hammers relating to your role. We think that the reason that you are unable to adequately explain yourself is because there was no town motivation behind what you did. You cut short a townies ability to post when they had said they were going to, and someone else had already called them out and put a deadline on their activity. Hell, if you wanted to hammer you still could have after giving Amrun some time to complete the post she said she was doing. Does your role say anything about not being able to declare intent, or preventing them from claiming. The only reason we can figure you hammering the way you did was to prevent Amrun from being able to reveal any information that could be beneficial to the rest of us.

We believe that there is credence to the theory that Peace replaces out as scum where he wouldn't as town, and see his reason for replacing out to be suspect. Adding that to the absolute void that was displaced, and the abomination of a hammer and subsequently shitty response to town reactions from Spy there is no dissidence when we

Unvote
Vote: Spy

I'll quote this even though its to both of you.

Yea, I expect 'heat' or fake /emo or what have you but

being on the wagon

and coming out takes stones. If you're gonna late vote, you want it dead.

And lets not forget the fact that she was active and posting on site after Garruk said 12 hours to hammer. If there was time for squemishness then would have been when to slide off.

You dont get to be on it and tsk, tsk when things dont work out.

[elleheathen]

I'll quote this even though its to both of you.

Yea, I expect 'heat' or fake /emo or what have you but

being on the wagon

and coming out takes stones. If you're gonna late vote, you want it dead.

And lets not forget the fact that she was active and posting on site after Garruk said 12 hours to hammer. If there was time for squemishness then would have been when to slide off.

You dont get to be on it and tsk, tsk when things dont work out.

Actually, I do get to be on it and 'tsk, tsk' at you because:

While I believe the L-1 was overkill, it still gave us the option to opt out.

So did Garruk's 12 hour warning.

Your hammer in the interim of two posts did not - especially when it was made abundantly clear by many that that wagon was up there to pressure Amrun for a response or a claim. Something your hammer prevented.

12:43 - AGar's L-1 on Amrun
12:52 - Garruk states intent to hammer in 12 hours
2:31 - Your hammer

^You think that is giving people sufficient time to 'slide off'?

You say you had reasons for wanting to see that lynch. Reasons that couldn't have waited until you'd either formed an actual opinion on Amrun or got a response or a claim from them - when it was blatantly obvious that that's what the wagons intent was?

And before misreping the dead, why not take a look at Amrun's post history for the time of all this - because you're saying they posted while all this was going on - and they hadn't posted on site anywhere during this time. Their last post on site was here, in this thread, before my L-2. And their next post on site was well after your hammer. So, come again?

Also, I thought you were just hammering because 'lolreasons' yet now you're trying to justify the hammer beyond that because of lurking - when you even state that you were in the midst of only reading up to page 12 - turned back and hammered - but somehow found time in there with no reason whatsoever to check in on Amrun's posting activity?

[SpyreX]

Not they.

You. YOU posted after garruk said 12 hours. You were on, saw it at L-1 and went "swelp, this is fine".

Nah I hammered because it helps the sweet sweet candy. I just dont feel bad after actually catching up.

[SpyreX]

Actually. How did you EVER think I was talking about Amrun from what I said?

Even more important, in a game where the role has nothing to do with the alignment, why were you pushing for a

claim

?

[elleheathen]

Not they.

You. YOU posted after garruk said 12 hours. You were on, saw it at L-1 and went "swelp, this is fine".

No, I did not. My last post in this thread is at 12:08 - 35 minutes before the L-1. Cephrir is the only person to post (besides a VC) in between the L-1, Garruk's 12 hour warning, and your hammer.

Because it'd take a 'particularly ticklish brand of stones' to insinuate that because I was posting in other games that that somehow means that I was lurking here instead of just

posting in my other games

. Maybe you should take a look at the content of those posts in those games to which you think I'm lurking with instead of

involved

in those games.

You know, besides the fact even if I had seen it - there was still 12 hours hence from a stated intent.
You say it was because of 'reasons' - yet the only reason I see to hammer something that already has intent on it, is to prevent us from getting the information we were waiting on from Amrun. Did you get what you wanted from your 'reasons'?