Marketplace Mafia III - Game Over

[Garuda]

Was thinking that Sean might be a decent lynch 'cause I think scum DO like to complain about the size of said thread (but town do as well so its pretty null).

I have no idea why Seanald was zeroed out here.

not scum, Tammy. Go away.

Show me.

I can't until Harakiri flips scum or they try and argue with me but no, they are avoiding me like the plague 'cause they know that arguing with me will only bring attention to themselves.

I thought this response was actually pretty good.

I can't find it but this "I'm going to blindly sheep Nacho" is just so grrrrrr!!!

If we aren't lynching that can you guys atleast send me money so I can buy a nightkill?

This sounded a bit fake, but the bolded is just too ballsy to be coming from scumNero, I think.

I could buy a Hana/Voided team.

This seemed opportunistic, as did

vote:Hermy

This. Easiest move for scum to pull when they're getting a free lynch is to quietly shuffle on the wagon which is pretty much exactly what Nero did here.

I'll advertise FRC

I liked this! I think scumNero would be more likely to keep his mouth shut and not advertise anything.

Frustration with Muffin almost certainly feels genuine, but I'm not sure if it's alignment-relevant.

Says Muffin's been "bleeding town" but doesn't notice Muffin defending him?

If Muffin is scum its not with Mhork.

This was a pretty good observation.

Leaning town here.

[Garuda]

Not relevant with the pace of this game, you know that mhork. And maybe I shoulda been like the others and simply not posted anything. I'm in it to win it, but I ain't fucking reading the whole thread when it's generating 3 pages an hour. Like I said at that point go fuck selves.

Lol and this pathetic attempt to find a last minute easy lurker lynch isn't scummy? Are you kidding me here? There is plenty of information to settle on an informable valuable lynch rather than my useless ass. Now your just playing bad.

Empire and I both thought that there was absolutely no attempt to posture, look helpful or town at all and we both liked that quite a bit.

After deadline activation, lost butterfly threw out 3 posts in a row. Now I like your play butterfly but I've noticed scum like to be active right after they've made a play in an attempt to try to control the game, what's your thoughts on that?

I liked this quite a bit, and I like how Seanald encouraged everyone to talk about it, pushed his theory along.

controlling the money controls the game dude. why wouldn't i get that ability.

This seemed good mainly because the thought behind it is misguided, but still has pretty decent town motivation. I also don't think any scumteam would let him claim that he had something like this since they aren't able to activate the ability anymore or Seanald is pretty much speedlynched.

I think this is probably the best townread I've had on Seanald in a while.

[Magua]

Vote Count 2.13

With 20 alive, it takes 11 to lynch.

Klick (5): Garuda, Seanald, pieguyn, Harakiri, Klick
VoidedMafia (5): morph the cat, BBmolla, uʍop ǝpısdn, PeregrineV, 1baldeagle1
Nero Cain (3): Lord Mhork, zMuffinMan, VoidedMafia
Lord Mhork (2): Nero Cain, Zdenek
morph the cat (1): Pyrotechnics
uʍop ǝpısdn (1): ProHawk
Lost Butterfly (1): Lost Butterfly

Not Voting (2): Banakai, DoctorPepper

Deadline for Day 2 is Friday, November 1st, at 2:00pm EST (site time).
Countdown to deadline:

(expired on 2013-11-01 13:00:00)

[Garuda]

fluff. not alignment indicative, but I'm interested in seeing if upside down attacks her for "fluff" given he's doing the same for baldeagle

up to 319, I haven't seen uwop yell at anyone else for "fluff". it seems suspicious since it's not consistent

I liked the followup here; felt genuine and not the type of thing scum would think to fake in a catchup post.

hold on a second. in 147 Harakiri went "all in" on getting Neighborizer but only spent 90. uwop and zmuffin criticized LB for only putting 80 in order to win investigation immunity, but they weren't criticizing Harakiri for doing the same thing? I don't get this at all

I thought this was a good thing to pick up on.

oh my god this <3 uwop jumped to near the top of my townlist with this. even though I disagree with some of those scumreads, I totally agree there's a good chance there's a few scum being really active just to fuck with everyone. this makes me think about Mhork/Voided/zmuffin even more. incidentally, I'm kind of surprised he didn't point out Mhork in this post. Pyro/LB just reads like yet another argument where they're so convinced each other are scum that they don't bother with anything else.

This seemed incredibly genuine.

points out 2 people who aren't really posting and the main wagon. seems pretty hazardous for me

Good observation.

As a whole, the catchup post mostly felt town. I got the sense that he was actually reading over everything (a lot of those responses were quotes midwall), and a lot of the points that he does make are good/feel genuine. I don't think it was as town as I felt it was when I first looked at it, though. Subsequent push against Klick feels genuine.

[Lost Butterfly]

What are you doing?

[Lost Butterfly]

Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt the robotic Facebook "I LIKE THIS" type posts that seem to going into excruciatingly unnecessary detail at times but I am curious!

[Lost Butterfly]

Actually I hate myself and am going to go cry never mind.

[Pyrotechnics]

That's part of the crux of his argument against you guys, and I thought he got that part across pretty clear that night? He says that it doesn't make sense for that to come from ffery. He said that from that post and the ones afterwards, you guys are treating us like we're town, but then not actually trying to figure out why our reads are what they are. It's just not what he would expect from ffery!town.

Why wouldn't ffery understand that type of thing though? In hard boiled, I made a post and ffery asked me who made the post. When I told her I did and asked why, she said she'd be scum reading us if Mala had made the post. (Or it was GiF, I suppose) The idea being I guess that you expect certain things from one person that you wouldn't expect from another.

I'm not going to start this argument again though as I think if you read Syry's posts from that night, you'll see what problem he had with it and what he expected from ffery if town.

As part of your personal conversation with me, I'd like Tammy's scumreads as they stand right now.

Still think morph is scum. Changed my mind on Nero and n being scum though. Nero started yelling at people, which I like for his alignment. Last time I saw him as scum he was much more apologetic to me about being disengaged and kept promising me a yelling post he never made. I originally didn't like the whiny tone, but he started looking better. The only pause I have is that this is multiball, and I'll have to check back. I think I remember him being scum in dn does Star Wars and he was capable of doing his yelling thing there. And n had a few posts I think are less likely to come from scum. The klick replace out when wagoned is something I've seen him do as town in mylo before, so it was null, but the replace back in looked town. Still suspicious of lost butterfly (they've had a couple posts I liked but overall meh). Baldeagle feels off on tone. He's doing all the right protown things, but either he's severely grown as a player in the past month or he's scum. I'm a little worried about seanald, but it could just be because its seanald.

[Garuda]

Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt the robotic Facebook "I LIKE THIS" type posts that seem to going into excruciatingly unnecessary detail at times but I am curious!

I can't be as smooth and sensual as you, so I'm going through the playerlist and walling for most of them so I can get decently developed reads. Then, Empire is going to check my work.

[zMuffinMan]

I Love your muffin scum read. Where'd you get it?

nero has a tendency to call almost everyone who calls him scum, scum. it shouldn't be surprising.

The fact that he's saying that you DID imply I was lurking scum but fence sitting on the issue and saying that you were also just pointing it out [that I posted after you voted me.]

i honestly don't even think mhork realises that was what he was implying (i think he was just making an observation), but it doesn't change that nothing he said was factually incorrect, so you overreacting and calling him lying scum makes no sense.

PV also made some good points about him.

PV's just coming off a game where i did something similar as scum to protect a scum buddy. what he doesn't realise is that the thing i was doing was because the gamestate called for it; i needed to discredit PV in a situation where he was lynchbait and lynching him that day would basically ensure a win, i didn't want to waste time bussing a buddy unnecessarily and i could get away with it because PV's argument was shaky at best and he was suspected by a lot of people. he's paranoid about me here because he thinks this is something indicative of my scum game but doesn't realise it's something i also do as town when i see a shaky argument. so i can't

really

fault PV for being really wrong here, even though i don't think i'd be dumb enough to do the exact same thing with the exact same player twice in a row as scum...

all that said, i'm interested in which "good points" PV made you agree with. do you agree that seanald is scum purely for advertising austerity measures? because me disagreeing with that is the foundation for PV thinking i'm scum.

the bolded is just too ballsy to be coming from scumNero

how so? like... what was ballsy about it and what risk could that have posed to nero-scum?

I think scumNero would be more likely to keep his mouth shut and not advertise anything.

btw, it's nice and all that you're going through the entire player list and calling them town (including klick, who you're still voting), but who do you guys actually think is scum?

Nero started yelling at people, which I like for his alignment.

eh, this is wrong. if nero is

known

for yelling as town, of course he's going to adapt this to his scum game. you even mentioned another game in which you remember him doing it as scum, so...

[Garuda]

how so? like... what was ballsy about it and what risk could that have posed to nero-scum?

It's ballsy because he's being overconfident about his towniness. The risk it poses to Nero-scum is the risk any scumbag has when they say anything; that they'll find it scummy. This in particular appeals to people that can read him well, so if they're reading him as scum at that point, sucks for him.

Under a day left to deadline, Hermy is obviously getting lynched... why would Nero offer to advertise anything as scum?

btw, it's nice and all that you're going through the entire player list and calling them town (including klick, who you're still voting), but who do you guys actually think is scum?

Working on it.

[Lord Mhork]

By that logic isn't anyone who says anything being ballsy?

[pieguyn]

so what's stopping us from quicklynching Klick

[Garuda]

It's ballsy because he's being overconfident about his towniness.

This is the ballsy part. I find it more difficult to parade around and call myself obvtown when I'm clearly not as opposed to when I have my town role PM + my usual awesome town play to back it up.

[Lost Butterfly]

Okay. Advertisements.

Originally, I wanted people to keep the amount they'd advertised hidden so that scum couldn't work out who had how much money left. As I was writing this, I realized we'd have got even more information by asking everyone to claim the exact amount they'd spent (and potentially could have caught someone in a lie). Banakai's claim in particular was really useful.

The main reason I'm just posting my conclusions now is because I don't want to stall this out. It took long enough to get most of the game to claim their advertisements. Even now, I'm

assuming

DoctorPepper and Hermy advertised nothing--Hermy in particular I don't see caring enough about the game mechanics to advertise. (But then again, I wasn't expecting Banakai to have been such a prolific advertiser.)

Here were the abilities auctioned on N0:

Austerity Measures --> claimed advertisement by Seanald
Cop --> claimed advertisement by Banakai ($2) and upside down
Deadline --> no claimed advertisement
Extra Vote --> claimed advertisement by Voidedmafia
Gravedigger --> claimed advertisement by Banakai ($3) and ProHawk
Hitman --> no claimed advertisement (but according to Magua, advertisements on counter-abilities stack, so Banakai's claimed $3 on Doctor and $2 on Commuter mean $5 on Hitman)
Investigative Immunity --> counter to cop (proxy-advertised by Banakai and upside down)
Medium --> claimed advertisement by Zdenek and upside down
Neighbourizer --> claimed advertisement by Banakai ($1), Garuda, and morph
Vote Freezer --> claimed advertisement by Nero Cain ($3) and baldeagle

Now, here were the abilities available on N2:
Commuter --> claimed advertisement by Banakai ($2)
Doctor --> claimed advertisement by Banakai ($3) and morph (after confirmation)
Governor --> no claimed advertisement
Love Potion --> claimed advertisement by Nero ($3)
Ninja --> counter to Watcher (proxy-advertised by morph)
Roleblocker --> no claimed advertisement
Tailor --> no claimed advertisement
Vote Nullifier --> no claimed advertisement
Watcher --> claimed advertisement by morph (after confirmation)

What can we conclude?

1) Banakai is confirmed to have advertised commuter, at least, since it showed up on N2 and no one else claimed it. He's likely telling the truth about doctor unless the scum advertised Hitman.

2) Although doctor might have shown up solely because of Banakai, morph must have been telling the truth about advertising watcher on N0. Without him, the ability wouldn't (unless you think scum would deliberately want watcher in the game).

3) Now, assuming Banakai is telling the truth about all his advertisements...look at the

amounts

he spent. He put $3 on Doctor, but it didn't show up until N1. He put $2 on Cop and $1 on Gravedigger,

and both showed up on N0.

The only people to have claimed these were upside down and ProHawk, respectively, so they're telling the truth. (If Banakai is lying, then upside down and ProHawk are obviously telling the truth anyway. But point 1 makes me believe Banakai was telling the truth.)

4) Seanald, Nero, and Voidedmafia are the only players to have advertised Austerity Measure, Love Potion, and Extra Vote, respectively. All three abilities showed up. Furthermore, baldeagle's advertisement claim (Vote Freezer) is consistent with Nero's claim of $3 on Love Potion and $3 on Vote Freezer. Remember, we've already established that $3 isn't enough for an ability to appear on N0 (unless it was randomly chosen over Doctor). Vote Freezer showed up on N0, but Love Potion didn't appear until N1. However, they could conceivably be scum claiming their real actions.

5) Since no one claimed to advertise Wage Freeze, someone must have advertised Deadline during confirmation. That someone is scum.

6) Since every ability that was advertised showed up by at least N1 (morph even described what they'd put on Watcher as "chump change"), it's conceivable that Governor, Tailor, Vote Nullifier, and Roleblocker were just selected randomly from the list of $0 abilities. But given how mediocre the non-claimed abilities in last night's auction were, there's a high chance that scum advertised at least some of these.

7) We don't have enough information to confirm who really advertised Medium or Neighbourizer. upside down/Zdenek/Garuda/morph, I don't suppose you could claim how much you spent, could you?

8) If DoctorPepper comes in and goes, "Hey, guys! I forgot to tell you, but I really advertised cop AND watcher AND gravedigger," then I'm dayvigging him.

The main thing I'm taking away from this is that morph, Banakai, upside down, and to a lesser extent ProHawk (since Gravedigger isn't as unambiguously protown as some of the other abilities) come out looking really good. Given that the advertisement totals are hidden, I don't see scum dropping money on advertising protown abilities on N0. The only way it pays off is if you happen to be the one player in the game who advertises that ability. And morph going the extra mile of advertising abilities that were in danger of being eliminated last night is a major towntell.

Thoughts?

[morph the cat]

7) We don't have enough information to confirm who really advertised Medium or Neighbourizer. upside down/Zdenek/Garuda/morph, I don't suppose you could claim how much you spent, could you?

Re neighborizer, we don't want to say today. More than we needed to in retrospect, though.

[Garuda]

I think we put $7 down on Neighborizer.

[Garuda]

Yep, we did.

[Garuda]

Banakai ... come out looking really good.

This is the most useful conclusion, and I see how you got there. I already believed him when he said he advertised what he advertised, and it seemed like a townie spread of abilities.

[1baldeagle1]

LB, I didn't advertise Vote Freezer, I won it.

[Lost Butterfly]

EBWOP (I can't go a wall without one of these):

-The second set of abilities is on N1, not N2.
-

Without him, the ability wouldn't (unless you think scum would deliberately want watcher in the game).

Without their advertisement, the ability wouldn't show up.

Upon reflection, it's not

impossible

that Banakai fakeclaimed--Commuter might have been a $0 ability chosen randomly on N1 (in which case scum advertised Hitman or another protective role on N0), or even a role scum were gunning for to avoid night actions. But given that he was barely following the thread, I don't think he'd be capable of perfectly crafting such a complex advertisement claim to fit with what had been revealed in the thread.

I guess there's one way to answer that: upside down and ProHawk, how much did you advertise Cop and Gravedigger for?

EBWOP: morph, if you bid less than $3 on neighbourizer, you can confirm that Garuda is telling the truth. (Granted, neighbourizer has utility for scum in this game, so I understand if you don't think it's worth it.)

[1baldeagle1]

@ Bald, you really think Morph would imply that I'm lurking scum then say that he didn't...as town?

Lurking isn't a scumtell for me.

Atm, I'm not sure what to make of you. Some posts I don't like, and some I do.

[morph the cat]

EBWOP: morph, if you bid less than $3 on neighbourizer, you can confirm that Garuda is telling the truth. (Granted, neighbourizer has utility for scum in this game, so I understand if you don't think it's worth it.)

I'll confirm that I did not bid on it at all. Advertisment wise, let's just say it's VERY much so larger than three dollars. Short of some crazy gambit, I'm comfortable saying that neighborizer was the highest paid advertisement N0.

[Lost Butterfly]

LB, I didn't advertise Vote Freezer, I won it.

...well, never mind. .___.

Then either 1) scum placed an additional advertisement on Vote Freezer along with Nero's, or 2) Vote Freezer was randomly selected over Doctor because $3 was the minimum cut-off. (Or 3) Nero is scum and lied for no apparent reason about the amount he bid.)

[morph the cat]

EBWOP (I can't go a wall without one of these):

-The second set of abilities is on N1, not N2.
-

Without him, the ability wouldn't (unless you think scum would deliberately want watcher in the game).

Without their advertisement, the ability wouldn't show up.

Upon reflection, it's not

impossible

that Banakai fakeclaimed--Commuter might have been a $0 ability chosen randomly on N1 (in which case scum advertised Hitman or another protective role on N0), or even a role scum were gunning for to avoid night actions. But given that he was barely following the thread, I don't think he'd be capable of perfectly crafting such a complex advertisement claim to fit with what had been revealed in the thread.

I guess there's one way to answer that: upside down and ProHawk, how much did you advertise Cop and Gravedigger for?

EBWOP: morph, if you bid less than $3 on neighbourizer, you can confirm that Garuda is telling the truth. (Granted, neighbourizer has utility for scum in this game, so I understand if you don't think it's worth it.)

We bid more than $3.