Mini 1501: We're On A Boat! (END?! results inside)

[fferyllt]

Looking back I think CDB was most likely to be scum. He stayed well clear of the empire wagon and didn't really talk about it and when some asked him in post 455 I believe it was fence sitting. I know I know I thought empire was town as well but i was to busy tunneling

kaze and peabody jumping to the conclusion they were a scum team

. CDB seemed to push hard on the Brian wagon I believe this wagon was to stop any empire wagon from building up.

It's the same slot. The can't be a team. Was there someone else you thought was scum with Kaze/Peabody?

[Peabody]

I'm confused on how that is a scum slip, Garmr. Can you spell it out for me, please.

[CrashTextDummie]

Can you suggest some games where you feel CDB's play was similar to this one and he was town?

Not one I've personally played in. Most of our shared games are ancient history and not very memorable. We both used to flake a lot and replaced each other a couple of times. I did follow along this game partly to check if I can still read him, and had him quickly figured out as town. I can suggest a game where his play was different from this one where he was scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

It might not be the most helpful thing to say but my ego demands that I point out that my scum game has improved since Oldy Mafia.

[ChannelDelibird]

Wasn't supposed to link to that post in particular but just go with it.

[Grimgroove]

On my phone so can't post much but, Grimgroove, ffery, what do you think was the scum motivation for presenting my thoughts on ffery as I did?

You asking this question points to possible scum motivation.
Like I said, at first I thought you were tiown for swimming against the stream by picking on fferyllt, an obvscum read for many. And I think this is the reaction you wanted to go for, because in essence there is indeed no scum motivation for doing so. But that in itself is scum motivation enough. The fact you're confident we can't find any scum motivation ehind your push (which is evident since you asked the question) further points in this direction.

The nature of the push doesn't sound sincere, and combined with this question, I think you only did it to instill the reaction that you clearly wanted: us thinking you're town for doing something that has no discernable scum motivation behind it.

[ChannelDelibird]

That doesn't really sound like me. I should be able to find meta examples of me asking things like #1072 as town; I'll have a look.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB, as town, talking after the fact about things he did not having scum motivations:

SpyParty Mafia
Balto the Invitational
Gorilla Munch

I could go back further but I can't really be arsed; I think you can get the point that the behaviour is not out of character with my town game.

[ChannelDelibird]

He stayed well clear of the empire wagon and didn't really talk about it and when some asked him in post 455 I believe it was fence sitting. I know I know I thought empire was town as well but i was to busy tunneling kaze and peabody jumping to the conclusion they were a scum team.

How much of it was "not really talking about the Empire wagon" and how much of it was "I simply wasn't there to talk about anything"? I did pop in when I could, of course, but I don't think this is a particularly fair characterisation of my play. I'm also not going to accept "but I was too busy tunneling Kaze to have a scumread on Empire" as a way for it to be OK for you to think he was town but not for me to think he was "promising". You are allowed to have more than one scumread at a time and, as someone pointed out, Kaze & Peabody are the same slot you could hardly think they were an exclusive two-man scumteam. I thought Empire was well-spoken and fairly persuasive, which he was and is, and while I was around that was pretty much enough because I had a strong scumread in Brian. You know that this is a reasonable behaviour because you just said that you did the same.

As I had Brian as a null at the time I wanted to lynch my scum over the miller and let the Vig deal with it latter which I thought would happen around night 2 since I think most people viewed brian as a null read just like me.

As I told you then, waiting for a hypothetical vig to do dirty work is silly because said vig is hypothetical. From my experience of mini normals, the role is far from common enough for us to simply expect a vig to do stuff for us. That may be the case here after all but we had no reason to assume that we could leave it for that.

This was obviously a

empire scum slip

which Everyone seemed to miss except CDB he corrected empire on it in a way that covers it up. Empire responds with this.

What? WHAT? Just because we now know Empire was scum doesn't make everything he said a slip. I'm not some mythical Sherlock scum who notices his partner's slips even when nobody else does it and then subtly cleans it up. Have you seen the kind of players who are sharing this game with us? It just isn't a slip. It just isn't. It's just us talking.

This is the post empire acknowledges CDB responce to his scum slip up. Then he tries to cover it up even more and with the last paragraph he leaves hints for CBD to not go for Peabody and NS but to keep focused on Brian.

Why is "Empire hints to scumbuddy CDB to keep focused on Brian" more likely than "Empire subtly encourages town CDB to keep pushing for a mislynch on Briantown"?

[ChannelDelibird]

I seem to know him well? As I indicated, I've played one game with him.

I may have missed/forgotten you explicitly saying you'd played one game with him. I assumed more because your interactions seemed to imply a longer history than that.

I have no idea where this model of how I'd play as scum comes from, but it's not based on available data about how I play as scum at this point in my development as a player.

As I've previously indicated, I'm not coming into this game with a vast meta catalogue of you prepared. I can't even remember if we have a completed game together; I know you more by what seems to be a pretty good reputation. My model for you is not much more developed than "probably pretty good". When reading your posts, I'm usually thinking "could I see, generally, scum being more likely to do this than town" rather than "based on available data, is this more likely to be fferyscum than fferytown"? I don't know you well enough to get there yet, though I agree that that would be the better question.

[SleepyKrew]

blah blah my brain hurts I'll try to do this soon blah

[fferyllt]

I seem to know him well? As I indicated, I've played one game with him.

I may have missed/forgotten you explicitly saying you'd played one game with him. I assumed more because your interactions seemed to imply a longer history than that.

It was a memorable game.

I have no idea where this model of how I'd play as scum comes from, but it's not based on available data about how I play as scum at this point in my development as a player.

As I've previously indicated, I'm not coming into this game with a vast meta catalogue of you prepared. I can't even remember if we have a completed game together; I know you more by what seems to be a pretty good reputation. My model for you is not much more developed than "probably pretty good". When reading your posts, I'm usually thinking "could I see, generally, scum being more likely to do this than town" rather than "based on available data, is this more likely to be fferyscum than fferytown"? I don't know you well enough to get there yet, though I agree that that would be the better question.

Ok.

Then, you're making assumptions about my play more or less sight unseen based on what some hypothetical average MS player might do. My play style wasn't grown on MS for the most part. My ingrained likely reactions to some situations (including millers among other roles, and pretty much anything to do with bandwagon development that gets past the tipping point) are shaped by off-site meta, plurality lynch rules, short game days, etc., and sometimes don't appear natural to players who learned mafia in this or similar environments.

My self assessment is that I mostly played a solid day 1, and now know that I locked on to at least one scum. But, in a mostly unknown player list I didn't have the gravitas or the confidence to argue effectively for the lynch I thought was optimal.

[ChannelDelibird]

Then, you're making assumptions about my play more or less sight unseen based on what some hypothetical average MS player might do.

As a baseline, yes, and I appreciate the reminder about you playing a bunch off-site, which I think I knew but of which perhaps could be more mindful sometimes.

My self assessment is that I mostly played a solid day 1, and now know that I locked on to at least one scum. But, in a mostly unknown player list I didn't have the gravitas or the confidence to argue effectively for the lynch I thought was optimal.

In the end, I pretty much agree with you. That's more or less the point I made in the original rambly post to which you reacted. I wanted to convey that I agonised over the read because I think it's important to share how much I ummed and ahhed on my readthrough - because it's a thing that happened, which you'd have known from my literal umms and ahhs if we were playing this face-to-face - in order to be as honest and readable as possible. The need to be open about my thoughts is enhanced by my not having been around at all times.

[Peabody]

I'm feeling pretty lazy in this game. Probably all the walls, hehe. I'll give this game the attention it deserves in my next post. Sorry.

[Grimgroove]

Same here. I think the only way to approach this reasonably is to go for interactions. My scumreads on SleepyKrew and CDB feel pretty solid though, I don't see what I could add more to the fferyllt-CDB discussion other than say CDB hasn't convinced me. SleepyKrew is in prod-mode and still hasn't addressed anything I said about/to him making further participation from my side difficult at this point.

[fferyllt]

Same here. I think the only way to approach this reasonably is to go for interactions. My scumreads on SleepyKrew and CDB feel pretty solid though, I don't see what I could add more to the fferyllt-CDB discussion other than say CDB hasn't convinced me. SleepyKrew is in prod-mode and still hasn't addressed anything I said about/to him making further participation from my side difficult at this point.

CDB hasn't convinced you of what?

[Grimgroove]

That he's town and that his reads are more than windowdressing.

[fferyllt]

We've probably over-discussed his read of my day 1. But, his vote is on Plum. Thoughts about that case?

[fferyllt]

Plum, then. Around this time, she seems to be largely ignoring Maestro but includes him in a pretty passive list of basically 'people who can die, I guess', which I think is more likely to come from a buddy than not. I find her vote on Grimgroove a bit weird, as he looks fairly solidly town due to sheer volume of input and heart, and there are also a couple of other posts which I noted down though are mostly seen through confirmation bias, I suspect.

Of everything, she seems like the vote I can least argue with at the moment.

VOTE: Plum

If anyone wants to ask me stuff/point me to anything I missed, this is a good time. I've got my head further into the game than I have before and would like to capitalise it in a slightly less rambling way than this large post. Hit me.

All his posts have had a hedgy feel to them. This paragraph leading up to his vote is similar. The bolded in particular. It sounds like something you might say about joining a bandwagon you feel half-hearted about but don't have a better lead. But, it's the first and so far only vote on Plum today. So what's to argue?

[Grimgroove]

Plum, then. Around this time, she seems to be largely ignoring Maestro but includes him in a pretty passive list of basically 'people who can die, I guess', which I think is more likely to come from a buddy than not. I find her vote on Grimgroove a bit weird, as he looks fairly solidly town due to sheer volume of input and heart, and there are also a couple of other posts which I noted down though are mostly seen through confirmation bias, I suspect. Of everything, she seems like the vote I can least argue with at the moment.

I just went to get the case so everyone knows what we're talking about.

I don't want to be making Plum's defense here, but:

This case fits with the idea of windowdressing.
The first argument is about including Maestro into a passive list. This should hardly be considered an argument considering Maestro was a passive player. It is not unreasonable at all to have him in such a list.
Then he jumps from the beginning of the game right to the end, where Plum voted me. However right CDB is in his townread on me, and however wrong Plum is in her scumread on me, the arguments are the other way around. Plum made an actual case of me being scum, through interactions between my slot and Empire. Quite in detail. I can actually see them being considered arguments.
All CDB has to offer as an argument for me being town is that I produced a lot of volume and showed heart.
He concludes his case with a blanket statement of some "other notes" on some "other posts by Plum" he has, but proceeds to invalidate that himself by mentioning a confbias (probably in order not to have to come up with those unexisting notes). A confbias? After those two measly arguments, one of which relates to the beginning of the topic and one to the end? How does that explain a confirmation bias on anything Plum posted in between those instances?

[Grimgroove]

And this mentioning of the confbias explains the concern you have with the thing you bolded fferyllt. Despite him proclaiming him possibly having a confbias, he has to put down a vote. He needs a ridge between the confbias and the vote. That bridge is the hedging thing you have noticed. A bit of one side, a bit of the other.

[ChannelDelibird]

(probably in order not to have to come up with those unexisting notes).

You think I couldn't have throwaway-linked a couple of posts as I had just done with more than one player further above that same post? I don't see how that makes sense.

The other two noted posts were this (I wondered if it came across like Plum knew Brian was town, but decided there was a good chance I was only seeing it that way because I already had Plum down as likely scum due to POE and the Maestro thing already by hat point) and this (Empire's reads list does nothing to dissuade a hypothesis of Plumscum).

A confbias? After those two measly arguments, one of which relates to the beginning of the topic and one to the end? How does that explain a confirmation bias on anything Plum posted in between those instances?

Take into account the number of townreads I had and any sign of scumminess is magnified in importance.

[ChannelDelibird]

On your continued grievance about the perceived throwaway nature of my townread on you: Sometimes you just have to say that 'dude looks town'. That's what I got, strong enough that I don't feel the need to analyse deeper. Strong immediate reaction, which remains.

[Garmr]

zipty do da zippyty prod dodge.

[Garmr]

1. I meant kaze and ns I wrote peabody by mistake.
2. I believe it was a slip but as my suspect pointed out there's players more experienced at catching things so I am going to ask them do you agree with my thinking.
3. The slip was Empire knowing that scum had pregame chat.