Micro 242: Les Miserables Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #750 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 6:51 am

Post by penguin_alien »

I know this game, I tell you, there's scum to lynch, that's true.
Just consider what I say, ere we lynch someone today!


With seven alive, it takes four to lynch!

Vote Count 2.07

Lord Mhork (L-3): shos
Malakittens (L-4):
mastin2 (L-1): Lord Mhork, Ghostlin, Grimgroove
bv310 (L-4):
Ghostlin (L-4):
shos (L-4):
Grimgroove (L-3): mastin2

Not voting: bv310, Malakittens

V/LA:

Deadline is in (expired on 2013-11-04 00:21:24)
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Post Post #751 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:49 am

Post by mastin2 »

In post 726, Grimgroove wrote:You downplay your former townread on me now, but the cases you've made for me town, setup specs included, were far more convincing and logical than anything you've presented on Maemuki or Malakittens.
My townread on you, aside from setup spec, was basically nothing. I can't even remember the reasons I had it, anymore.

Know what that is?

BIG FREAKIN
RED FLAG
.

If I can't remember why I was townreading a slot, there's generally a DAMN good reason to NOT have a townread, there. I had no reason for you to be town. I don't know why I didn't see it before. I don't know why I wrote you off as town. (Okay. So I probably do--confirmation bias on Mhork. :P) But that was a mistake. You're scum.

And know what the thing about setup spec is? It's speculation. It's impossible to know what the mind of the mod works like. And actually, I'm finding it slightly difficult to believe that you are a follower. Shos, a tracker, has an extreme limitation on his role, weakening it even further. You, a claimed follower, have no weakness in your ability, despite it being just as strong if not STRONGER than shos's ability.
In post 729, Lord Mhork wrote:I don't trust him to follow any set guidelines and role blocking can fuck everything up hard.
If the plan's not stupid? If the plan will work, taking all the variables into account? Of course I'm going to follow it; it'd be against my wincon to NOT follow it. But if the plan's stupid and/or looks smart but has a fatal flaw? Damn right I'm not going to follow the guidelines. :P

Grim's plan falls into the latter category, and I think it's scum-motivated to try and get him closer to endgame.
In post 731, Lord Mhork wrote:What if mastin just doesn't care? So far I've seen little that indicates he's willing to step off his pedestal and work with people that aren't him.
What am I, a reckless vig that shoots regardless of town's input? >_<

I'm willing to work with people who I think to be town. :P For instance? I think you might actually be town, Mhork. It's certainly possible. So I'm willing to listen to your ideas. I'll ultimately be the judge of whether those ideas are actually valid, of course, but I'm willing to try. :P And I'm also listening to Malakittens, shos, and Ghostlin.
In post 739, Malakittens wrote:I really don't know if its Mastin. Going by posts and everything I don't think he's scum, but his claim really felt similar to the claim back in a micro when he replaced a scum slot. /:
Presumably, she's talking about Vs. Mafia, run by Voidedmafia. (I'm too lazy to track down the link.) My claim there was Doctor, and I made it fit with the scum's accidental no-kill one night, along with my predecessor's reads. (I agonized over that for a good five, ten minutes. It's one of the main factors which delayed my roleclaim, in fact: checking for consistency. I needed to make sure whoever I claimed to be a protection was someone my predecessor townread D1, and continued to townread all through their part of D2.) I wanted to confirm mollie, but I couldn't because she screwed her claim up and was confscum as a result, so I...improvised. :P

That's the thing about my scum claims. Think of it as the quote about Jack Sparrow--"Do you think he plans it all out, or just makes it up as he goes along?", AKA, Xanatos Speed Chess. My scum fakeclaims are always improvised on the spot. But they're always well-thought-out fakeclaims that I make sure don't have a fatal flaw. There's another trend that my fakeclaims have: they're incredibly traditional. JOAT with three abilities. Doctor. Cop. With logical targets that make sense, and don't need elaborate explanations to justify. They're self-evident, self-contained. As scum, I can make my fakeclaim be less than a single paragraph, and nobody will ask any further questions, because it fits, they see it fits, they recognize it fits, understand it, and think that it is a good, solid claim. It's there in Vs. Mafia, it's also there in Oversoul's mini normal. (Again, you'd have to track down the link.) And probably others as well.

If you think that my play here is similar to that description, you're going to need one hell of an explanation as to why. :P I am not fakeclaiming. This is not my style of fakeclaiming at all. It's elaborate. It's convoluted. It is something people can easily think via occam's razor to be a lie. Which is precisely why it's true. :P
In post 744, shos wrote:Anyone considered 3rd party existence?
Someone did.
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Post Post #752 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:23 am

Post by Ghostlin »

In post 744, shos wrote:Anyone considered 3rd party existence?

That plan doesnt really do anything.

Mhorks role imo is useless and can belong to scum even uf he isnt lying.

Mala, please claim, itll truly truly help.

Ghostlin is conf by mastin.
I am conf by mala and mala is conf by me.

We need malas claim to plan the night.
No. It seems unlikely at this point in a role madness game and the lack of NKs last night points to it not existing.

Guys, it's very likely Grimgroove/Mastin. Either Grim is lying about his role OR Mastin is lying about who he targetted.
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Post Post #753 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:25 am

Post by Ghostlin »

Also, there's a lot of hand wringing over this decision, even if a fucking third party (Survivor or Even Night SK) existed. I'm not advocating that we should chain either one of those fucks, but if we mislynch, those two will need fucking us anyway to help them lynch the last scum (in fact, with Town winning, it's a Survivor's best interest to sit down, shut up and scumhunt with us.)
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Post Post #754 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:26 am

Post by Ghostlin »

Never mind. Can't contain a survivor. When did survivor become fucking bastard?
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Post Post #755 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:29 am

Post by Grimgroove »

The 180 in on both me and Mhork confirm mastin as scum really. The plan for the night is good enough as a fallback, but considering the circumstances, it doesn't need to be perfect (meaning we probably won't need it anyway).

Hammer away please.
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Post Post #756 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:47 am

Post by mastin2 »

In post 752, Ghostlin wrote:Guys, it's very likely Grimgroove/Mastin.
It's not me, and I really think at this point it's Grimgroove.
In post 755, Grimgroove wrote:The 180 in on both me and Mhork confirm mastin as scum really.
You began to scumread me this heavily after I reversed my opinion on you and called you scum. While you had voted me before then, you were not pushing me as hard as you are now. You're displaying OMGUS survivalistic tendencies, painting me as confirmed scum because you know that you need me mislynched in order to stand a chance at victory. This makes no sense from a town-GG perspective, anyway. Shos was supporting an Mhork lynch. Why would a scum-Mastin abandon a wagon that's
just beginning to gain traction
in favor of switching to a wagon on someone that could very well condemn him the next day?

I wouldn't. If I were scum, I'd still be on Mhork. I could continue to tunnel him all day, and be townread for having done so. But no. I'm not scum, wanting to survive. I'm not scum, trying to look good. I'm not scum, trying to mislynch. I'm town, trying to get scum lynched, and I think the scum is
YOU
.

It's the weekend, so I don't have much time to explain, but I'll run through Grimgroove's plan, assuming he's a mafia roleblocker, and show why it's beneficial to a scum wincon come Monday.
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Post Post #757 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 9:15 am

Post by Grimgroove »

I'm getting the feeling mastin is going for a badge of honour here, trying to get a mislynch before he goes down.

First thing I want to say before getting into replying to him: look at his reason for suddenly suspecting me, and even worse, making me his prime suspect (over Mhork).

The argument is that I am scum for contemplating the idea of a Ninja Roleblocker. That is it. Ever sinc ehe has turned 180 degrees and decided to paint everything else I do (the plan) as scummy.

It's fairly obvious what mastin is doing, at least to me. He has taken note of Malakittens' paranoia when it comes to me, stemming from a previous game and thought he could use it to his advantage. and as evident from his last explanation, he also seems to think that this switch will make him look like paranoid-town (like the rest of us), earning him townpoints.

But he was careless. He cannot explain such a 180-turn. He can't. He was CONVINCED Mhork was scum. Now he's CONVINCED I am scum, and wants to work together with Mhork, who he suddenly wants to consider possible town. And all over the one, single argument that I think a Ninja Roleblocker could be a possibility.

(As a side-note about this possibilty: I've given it some more thought, and actually don't think there will be a ninja, and if there is, it will be an X-shot (probably 1). Why? Because in case it wouldn't be, both my role and shos' role would be a complete liability to town. It wouldn't balance things, it would just make our roles anti-town. So X-shot ninja at the most, and given shos has to keep following Malakittens due to his compulsive nature (talking about the role) and Ghostlin will protect shos, this matter will clear out itself if necessar)

And that's why I got convinced mastin is scum. His argmuent for Mhork-scum had Always been a stretch, but this really takes the cake. The fact he abandons his Mhork-scum arguments so easily means he never really felt so strongly about them in the first place. Yet he certainly gave off the impression that he did. Why? Scum going for a mislynch.

I guess in his mind this plan came with a bonus. That bonus being my mislynch. He finds a supposed "slip" from my part, tries to power through a lynch on me over that, and can get back to his Mhork-business tomorrow. All the while saying "I was convinced it was a slip".

If I get mislynched you simply cannot let mastin get away with it. CANNOT.
In post 756, mastin2 wrote:
In post 755, Grimgroove wrote:The 180 in on both me and Mhork confirm mastin as scum really.
You began to scumread me this heavily after I reversed my opinion on you and called you scum. While you had voted me before then, you were not pushing me as hard as you are now.
Town uncertainty caused me not to push you as heavily. But I did push you. I scrutinized your cases. I've ISO'd your and your predecessor's past. I openly voiced my doubts surrounding your claim.

My problem was: too many alternatives. Partially due to paranoia, partially due to a great set-up (seriously, it is), and partially to some townies having come off scummy regardles sof my paranoia.

Now, I am pushing you hard because your mask has fallen. That 180 makes absolutely no sense.
You're displaying OMGUS survivalistic tendencies, painting me as confirmed scum because you know that you need me mislynched in order to stand a chance at victory. This makes no sense from a town-GG perspective, anyway.
Of course it makes sense. I see someone trying to lynch me over bullshit. That's what it is. Bullshit, and some circumstancial arguments as a sider. Absolutely nothing tangible.
Shos was supporting an Mhork lynch. Why would a scum-Mastin abandon a wagon that's
just beginning to gain traction
in favor of switching to a wagon on someone that could very well condemn him the next day?
You can always go back to the MHork-wagon tomorrow and hope it gains traction again. By the way, it wasn't gaining traction. It did at some point, but it lost it again before you started calling me out.
I wouldn't. If I were scum, I'd still be on Mhork. I could continue to tunnel him all day, and be townread for having done so. But no. I'm not scum, wanting to survive. I'm not scum, trying to look good. I'm not scum, trying to mislynch. I'm town, trying to get scum lynched, and I think the scum is
YOU
.
Even though I don't know what you look like, I can picture your face when typing that up perfectly :lol: Liking the theatrics, but content of that line = zero. It boils down to "I wouldn't do this as scum. I'm not scum. you are.". Not so convincing without the theatrics, hm?
It's the weekend, so I don't have much time to explain, but I'll run through Grimgroove's plan, assuming he's a mafia roleblocker, and show why it's beneficial to a scum wincon come Monday.
Nobody has to agree with the plan. At least I'm suggesting a plan, everyone is welcome to propose adjustments according to their concerns, and we talk it over. All that has happened to my plan so far is that it has been largely ignored.

Assuming I'm the mafia roleblocker while reading my plan is not town-beahvior mastin. Whenr eading the plan, you need to vkeep those options open before reading it. What you're planning to do come Monday is read what I say with a pre-assumption (I'm a roleblocker) you'll want to prove. This is not an honest exercise. It's deciding that the sky is blue before even having looked up.
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Post Post #758 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 9:22 am

Post by Grimgroove »

In post 757, Grimgroove wrote:It's fairly obvious what mastin is doing, at least to me. He has taken note of Malakittens' paranoia when it comes to me, stemming from a previous game and thought he could use it to his advantage. and as evident from his last explanation, he also seems to think that this switch will make him look like paranoid-town (like the rest of us), earning him townpoints.
I should clarify this bit further, because the argument he's using against me as supposedly crucial (I take into the account the possibility of MAlakittens being aninja) will especially sound true to Malakittens, who (I am now convinced) knowing herself not to be a ninja, will naturally feel inclined to see mastin's side of the story.

mastin's argument is not intellecutally valid. It's an appeal to Malakittens' emotions. He's trying to use town paranoia against us, but he did it so blatantly he got caught with his hand in the cookie jar.
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Post Post #759 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 10:12 am

Post by shos »

*I almost hammered here*

The reason I am hammering now is that practically, this day has gone waaaay beyond anything needed. by now, it's all of you speculating needless specs.


List of people alive, along with their claim.
Nameclaim
Shos
Obsessive tracker on Mala
Mala
non-VTAlthough shos saw that she didn't move tonight
MastinJKtargetted Ghostlin
Ghostlin
Bodyguardtargetted uh...someone, don't remember
GGFollowertargetted BV, "no result"
MhorkMailmanCan be(or has been?) confirmed by ???
BVNeighbourizerconfirmed by mhork


damn you mhork, I dunno why I can't get you in the table correctly. if someone can fix that for me I'd be glad

conftowns are in green.
I confirm mala hasn't done the kill, and hasn't visited nobody, mala confirms me with the fact that she indeed didn't visit anyone.
Ghostlin was jhailkept by mastin, so he is confirmed.

in total, we have FOUR people to be wary about. one, is mastin; he claims to be a jailkeeper. this is EASILY confirmed - he should jail ME tonight; if I get a result - he is lying, and if not - he is not. if I die, he is lying. ghostlin can target him to make sure he doesn't die, so tomorrow we have him as confirmed as well. Mala will do his magic...or something...but only within the BV-mhork-GG circle. GG can target mala, and if they both live, he can say what mala did, and mala will confirm or deny.

in other words: GG and mastin are not going to be lynched today, because it's easy to make the call if they are scum or town. at LEAST one of them will be confirmed tomorrow, and so, we will have enough conftowns to just lynch through all others to the win.

So then. lynch BV we can do, but we're really not thinking he is scum, right? right. so let's lynch mhork and work with the plan above.

fix me if I'm wrong, of course.
In post 836, Lucky2u said:

Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.
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Post Post #760 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 10:12 am

Post by shos »

THIS GAME DAMMIT
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Post Post #761 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 10:32 am

Post by Grimgroove »

There is absolutely no way to confirm jailkeepers as town through night actions.

mastin as a scum roleblocker could easily work around your plan by indeed blocking you, and killing someone else. You survive and have been blocked, just as in the case where mastin would be speaking the truth. How would you tell them apart?

Mhork on the other hand can be confirmed through nightactions. Even if only for that, mastin is a better lynch than Mhork.

Lynching bv now would be silly. A policy lynch at this stage is no good. And like you said, nobody really believes he's scum.

And look at the arguments pointing to mastin-scum. There's enough of them.
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Post Post #762 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:03 am

Post by shos »

how can mhork be confirmed? sending messages?
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Post Post #763 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:05 am

Post by shos »

ye know what, ok, I get it.

so I hammer mastin.
then what

ghostlin...protects me? you follow mhork, mhork messages me?
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Post Post #764 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:18 am

Post by Grimgroove »

In post 743, Grimgroove wrote:
Ghostlin protects shos.
Mhork sends letter to shos or Ghostlin.
shos tracks Malakittens (is a given)
Malakittens does what she does to whoever she wants, but she needs to do it.
Grimgroove follows Mhork.
^
This.

I made one slight adjustment. Mhork shouldn't say who he will send the letter to, but he has to send it to one of both conftown: you or Ghostlin.
That way that plan has a lesser chance of being ruined in case scum blocks Ghostlin and kills you. There's a chance Ghostlin got the letter and can still confirm Mhork as town. So the scum has to think: maybe I should kill Ghostlin then, instead of blocking him? But then there's still the chance Mhork sent the letter to you after all.

It makes it a wee bit more difficult for scum. We have two conftown so we have to make use of them.

And now, yes, you should hammer mastin, because all this talk about a plan very probably isn't even necessary.
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Post Post #765 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:23 am

Post by shos »

if ghostlin protects me then there's no reason to not send it to me. ghostlin will be dead in double chances.

he can also send the letter to mala, but if I'm protected, I am a better choice, I think.

if you don't count mala as confftown, may as well not count me as conftown, you know :/

VOTE: mastin

good luck, us.
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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:27 am

Post by mastin2 »

In post 757, Grimgroove wrote:I'm getting the feeling mastin is going for a badge of honour here, trying to get a mislynch before he goes down.
Hell no. As scum, I go for a win. Not to get some petty mislynch to stain a town's record.

No, I'm town,
aiming for that perfect record
.
The argument is that I am scum for contemplating the idea of a Ninja Roleblocker. That is it.
It might have started as that, yes. But saying that's all there is against you is a massive strawman. Your comment set off a red flag. Your reaction to it set off another. And your continued stances on things, and me stepping back from things to re-evaluate them, made me realize I had missed another. (That I had no actual reason to be townreading you aside from some half-assed setup spec.)
He has taken note of Malakittens' paranoia when it comes to me, stemming from a previous game and thought he could use it to his advantage.
Serious question:
what
paranoia? I haven't seen any from Malakittens. Or if I did, I certainly didn't remember it.
and as evident from his last explanation, he also seems to think that this switch will make him look like paranoid-town (like the rest of us), earning him townpoints.
Except I explicitly said that I wasn't. I'm not aiming for towncred. I'm
aiming for lynching scum
. I thought it was Mhork before. But now I'm growing increasingly convinced that it's YOU. I pointed out why a town-you was nearly-impossible for the scummy-as-hell immediate assumption that I'm scum, when a far more reasonable town reaction is to think that I am that paranoid town. That's not me expecting to get towncred and be seen as paranoid town. That's me pointing out that if you were town, you'd be THINKING it was paranoid town.
He cannot explain such a 180-turn. He can't. He was CONVINCED Mhork was scum. Now he's CONVINCED I am scum, and wants to work together with Mhork, who he suddenly wants to consider possible town.
I've pulled 180s, 360s, 720s, 90s, and just about every possible degree of rotation of reads over my career. Mostly as town, very rarely ever as scum. As scum, my play IS to be consistent. It's to tunnel. It's to be unmoving as I possibly can, to stubbornly hold onto reads that have long-since passed their expiration date.

I do this as scum because it works wonders for getting me towncred, and is something that I unfortunately also do as town. Your comment triggered something in me. It literally was like a switch. As if something had just clicked into place. Like things were wrong before, but now suddenly felt oh SO right. Because it was exactly that--I had been tunneling. And when I realized that, I did a quick mental reassessment of things.

Yes. It started with the single argument about thinking a ninja roleblocker could be possible. But sometimes, that's all it takes. Sometimes, it's a single comment by scum, seemingly-harmless, that can alert me to their presence, to their plan. And that, my friend, is exactly what just happened.
The fact he abandons his Mhork-scum arguments so easily means he never really felt so strongly about them in the first place. Yet he certainly gave off the impression that he did. Why? Scum going for a mislynch.
Actually, I always make my arguments look more confident than they really are. Know why? Because the real Mastin is a wreck. Plagued by self-doubt, by an utter lack of confidence, always waffling, always letting his overreactive (not overactive; overREactive!) imagination take him to the never-ending cycle of self-inflicted WIFOM. It's alignment-null, because I do it as both town and scum, buuuuuuuut, that doesn't mean every single push I do is off of a lie. Quite the opposite, I typically don't push something unless I feel really strongly about it. To put it another way--I may say something is 95%, but behind the mask of confidence, that's probably closer to 75 or maybe 85%. So if I said Mhork was 95% scum, it's actually more like one of those numbers. In that it IS something I feel strongly about. It's NOT a weak push. But it's also not as strong as I pretend it to be. So in a sense, you can say that I don't lie, but I DO exaggerate. (After all, I'm a writer, and writers' job isn't to create fiction--it's to exaggerate the truth. :P)

Buuuuuut, that's a side-note about general Mastin meta, irrelevant to the game. The simple fact is that I
was
confident Mhork was scum. I'm
not
convinced he is town now. You're conveniently ignoring how I said "willing to work with" and am "assuming" he's town and the like, in that I'm NOT sure he's town, but with thinking you're scum, I'm automatically thinking that he could be town.
If I get mislynched you simply cannot let mastin get away with it. CANNOT.
Oh, agreed. So let's make it official.
We lynch Grimgroove. If the game isn't over, mislynch me, and then Mhork.
But that won't happen, because the game should end with Grimgroove's scum flip.
Bullshit, and some circumstancial arguments as a sider. Absolutely nothing tangible.
Circumstancial arguments are my forte. :P They're seriously how I get the majority of my scumhunting done. See, I'm overall not a very refined scumhunter. Typically, my job in a town is to stir up things, off of circumstancial pieces of evidence, and let other town players I trust analyze them to see if I've got something that could be valid.
By the way, it wasn't gaining traction. It did at some point, but it lost it again before you started calling me out.
No, it was gaining traction before my callout of you, with people like shos expressing interest, you expressing interest, and probably at least one other player that I can't remember doing the same, if not more.
Nobody has to agree with the plan.
If nobody agrees with the plan, there's typically a damn-good reason--it being a scum-oriented one.
My academy.
"...You have a blog?!?" (Yes, I do. Click.)
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:28 am

Post by mastin2 »

Shos, the problem is, if there's a mafia roleblocker, that whole plan falls apart.
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:32 am

Post by shos »

...well I already hammered :o
are you scum?
In post 836, Lucky2u said:

Rule # 5h05: players should not attempt to use or manipulate the mod for any purpose.
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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:35 am

Post by mastin2 »

No.
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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:47 am

Post by Grimgroove »

I pray this game is over.
"What truffles are to pigs so are these charlatans and pettifoggers to my mental acuity." - Frasier
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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:47 am

Post by penguin_alien »

I believe that's a lynch; flip to come in a few hours after I make dinner/bake apple pies
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:52 am

Post by mastin2 »

In post 770, Grimgroove wrote:I pray this game is over.
It's not, and you damn-well know it.
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Sun Oct 27, 2013 3:04 am

Post by penguin_alien »

One post more, another post, another argument
This never-ending trial, then one lynch spent.
These players who don't know my face, will surely let things go apace,
One post more!


With seven alive, it takes four to lynch!

Vote Count 2.08--Final Vote Count of Day Two

Lord Mhork (L-4):
Malakittens (L-4):
mastin2 (L-0): Lord Mhork, Ghostlin, Grimgroove, shos
bv310 (L-4):
Ghostlin (L-4):
shos (L-4):
Grimgroove (L-3): mastin2

Not voting: bv310, Malakittens

V/LA:

Deadline is in (expired on 2013-11-04 00:21:24)
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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Sun Oct 27, 2013 3:04 am

Post by penguin_alien »

Day Two Lynch Flavor:

I know that you’ve found me suspect, and you’ll string me up, you may.
And when you lynch me today, well hey, I’m Madame Thenardier!


mastin2 has been lynched! He was
Madame Thenardier,
Mafia Jailkeeper!


Image

The town has won the game! They are:

Ghostlin,
Jean Valjean,
Town Bodyguard

shos,
Inspector Javert,
Town Obsessive Tracker

Malakittens,
Fantine,
Town Restless Spirit

Lord Mhork,
Eponine,
Town Mailman

bv310,
Enjolras,
Town One-Shot Neighborizer

elleheathen,
Grantaire,
Town Day Drink Vendor

Grimgroove,
Gavroche,
Town Follower
Locked