Big Brother: HoH Mafia (We have a winner at last)

[Minions]

Spoiler: Evicted from the house
Jake from Rainbow Dash, Vanilla Townie, forcibly evicted D1.
Gnomeo, Mafia Goon, evicted N1.
IceGuy, Mafia Goon, evicted N2.
Imperium, Vanilla Townie,, Forcibly evicted D3
Toastytoast,

Vanilla Townie,, evicted N3.
RachMarie,

Vanilla Townie,, evicted N4.
Bulbazak,

Mafia Goon, evicted N5.
Keybladewielder, Vanilla Townie, evicted N6.
Desperado, Vanilla Townie, evicted N7.

Three goons. Shit, toog could be a scum PR.

[Titus]

The fact you don't get your results (meaning mafia can lie), you have only two shots, and you don't have a full range of targets seems to be a pretty big counter.

[Minions]

Good point Titus.

That makes me feel better, but it still doesn't address who the top two are to find scum.

I'm gonna reread bbmolla tonight, both f16 and Titus have specific moments that read town (both ironically to do with the bulba investigation), I need to see if there is a moment in bbmollas game.

[Voidedmafia]

Votecount 8.02:

Not Voting - BBmolla, Minions, Toog, Titus, f-16

With 5 alive it takes 3 to elect an HoH.

Deadline is in (expired on 2013-11-09 11:48:57) or by 10:50 AM on November 9th, 2013.

[Titus]

The longer this game goes on, the less I like anyone. Everyone could theoretically be scum. If we cannot be certain who scum is, the next best play is to make conftowns. If we can confirm three of us, the scum cannot win even with a day kill. We put up an HoH, vote out one target. Then vote out the other.

[Titus]

Does anyone have the claimed votes on the eviction results day 1 and 2? I'm grabbing Imperium's last reads.

[Titus]

Nacho's problems with Minions-claim:

1) Balance - Scum has not showed any indication of killing power yet, and after we nominated two scumlynches in a row, I figure we would be dead right now if scum have the ability. L-1 HoH killer is a possibility, but limiting their killing power suggests that it's put in place as a scum power bonus and not as a necessity to preventing a broken game, and the game WOULD be broken if scum only has a one-shot killing power. Minions investigates one townie; confirms himself as town. Minions investigates another townie; also confirmed as town. Three confirmed town can vote one of themselves as HoH and kill nonthem indefinitely and thus pretty much autowin as long as town trusts all three. If they don't, they can lynch the cop, reveal his result as true, and still pretty much autowin (they can win even when mafia outnumber them!!!).

2) Mod Meta - Voidedmafia's mod meta to this day does not include any roles with unique powers. And while this game had an unexpected twist (nightless + HoH mechanic), I'm not sure that Voided would put anything close to Minions's claimed role in the game. It would not have a clean flip (Two-Shot HoH-specific Amnesiac Cop) and Voided hasn't modded a game with anything but clean flips (even in his weird game!), so I don't think he would post this role.

3) General Setup Speculation - I'm guessing this is an all-vanilla game. The general wave of agreement to Molla's speculation and lack of anyone responding in a weird way sort of confirms this. It is also the reason I want a massclaim; Minions confirmed as town would be incredible if they are actually town, but there's a much higher chance that they are scum and can be confirmed as scum by no other power roles showing up. Scum have demonstrated a distinct lack of killing power other than the JRBD kill so I'm not really too concerned about them dying.

4) Play issues - I don't buy that Minions didn't use cop powers on the first two days because it was "obvious" who was scummy; the first day it was fucking obvious Gnomeo was probably going to get lynched and Desperado wasn't on their radar so he would have been a fucking fantastic investigation. I know that one of the heads of Minions has a tendency to claim confirmable power roles as scum to buy more time, so the claim fits his scum playstyle completely and the chances of him rolling this specific role are slim slim slim.

This is something I find interesting out of Imperium's reads and it mirrors my own. A scum oracle hasn't been unheard of either. All "gifts" mentioned in the first post were given to scum. Why would any of us be different?

Toog is town according to Imperium, so working from the other direction, Toog is town.

[Toogeloo]

On a reread and reevaluation...

When I (jokingly) offered to nominate F-16 because we were afraid the scum team would shoot the HoH right when day started, I also stated we should evict Rach and Investigate Bulba. IMMEDIATELY following my post, Bulba votes for F-16, and later affirms his vote for F-16 when the plan was going full motion.

He never once argued someone else to be put up or a different course of action.

We also have never had an HoH other than F-16 since that point, and as such, never had another kill either.



So here's where my paranoid brain has led me in the last 30 minutes or so...

F-16 IS the last scum, and Bulba figured he was going to be claimed Inno after being investigated and went headlong into the plan. Sometime afterwards, F-16 and Bulba decided bussing him would be a better option for long term play and decided to use the arguments that F-16 has constantly mentioned to further reinforce it. Minions and I both got roped in pretty easily since it did make more sense from a Town perspective than Scum one. So F-16 gets nominated again, Bulba is evicted, and we continue to nominate F-16, more or less preventing him from using the Day kill, because it seems like it can only be used on the player with the most votes to be HoH.


Thoughts?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I was wary of Bulba not arguing as well and thought he could potentially be town for it. But when the investigation came back, I knew he was guilty so was a little taken aback at the lack of argument. I think he wanted to show that he had no fear in being investigated and that if he argued about it, it might lead to him being FOSsed more than Rach.

Bussing Bulba would never be a better option than clearing him considering the setup. Clearing a player who flips scum means that Minions could be FOSsed, you (Toog) could be FOSsed, not to mention that we wouldn't even be likely to lynch a cleared player. If I was lynched, there was no telling whether I cleared a townie or a buddy so Bulba wouldn't come under any specific threat. Not to mention that having 2 scum in a nightless game is much, much better than leaving it to the last scum, ESPECIALLY with a town cop and a confirmed town left which bus credit cannot surpass.

I really don't think the day kill is limited such that it can only be used on the HoH. What if we never put a HoH at L-1? What if we just place 1 vote on our choice and let the deadline expire? That would mean no kills for the scum at all.

[Toogeloo]

I figure it's the HoH nominee with the most votes, not just L-1. Imperium was killed with an hour remaining, and I don't believe he was L-1.

If I was lynched, there was no telling whether I cleared a townie or a buddy so Bulba wouldn't come under any specific threat.

Actually, you are wrong. If you cleared Bulba and were lynched later, he would probably have the highest chance of following you out the door. Considering we were hitting PoE at that point, you clearing Bulba would put you in a position to potentially be evicted.

Claiming a guilty on Bulba means you buy yourself several days due to the WIFOM of whether you would have bussed a buddy or not in this situation.

[Toogeloo]

I'd like molla back in the HoH chair. I'd prefer if I weren't there simply because I have a suspicion either myself or Minions being put in that spot is just asking to be shot.

Vote: BBmolla

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I think it is a stretch to believe that the votes matter. The scum already seem to be underpowered. It doesn't make any sense to limit the kills to players with the most votes.

Buying myself "several days" wasn't going to be enough. If I were scum bussing Bulba, I'd have to be sure that I could outlive Molla, you, and Minions none of which are likely.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Rereading the game, I feel most sure that Minions are town. Even if we completely ignore the cop claim, the way BUlba was tying Minions to Gnomeo makes it really, really obvious that he was trying to tie a townie with busted scum. His consistent comments that Minions and Gnomeo are buddies prove this. I am 100% sure on this read. That leaves Molla, Titus, and Toog. I'll re-read again to make sure.

[Titus]

Toog, convince me Molla is town and you'll have my vote.

[BBmolla]

I'm gonna reread tonight hopefully

Really wanna hear who F-16 thinks it is though

Minions actually makes a legit point. A scum Godfather would balance it out.

FUuuuuuck.

I hate this game, we're so close yet so far

[BBmolla]

Titus how good do you think I am at this game?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I still cannot believe BBMolla can be scum. I am re-reading as well.

Something to think about BBMolla: Just because scum likely have a GF doesn't mean Toog has to be that GF. Titus could be as well. The possibility of scum-GF would simply put Toog on the same level as you, me, and Titus.

[Titus]

Titus how good do you think I am at this game?

I have never played with you before and your moves seem to be well reasoned. I'm supposing you are smart and well experienced until you demonstrate otherwise.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Looking at page 8, Titus's reads list, Gnomeo's reads list and Titus's argument with BBMolla and Desperado all point towards Titus as scum: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=175

[BBmolla]

I still cannot believe BBMolla can be scum. I am re-reading as well.

Something to think about BBMolla: Just because scum likely have a GF doesn't mean Toog has to be that GF. Titus could be as well. The possibility of scum-GF would simply put Toog on the same level as you, me, and Titus.

Well if I had to put up a lynch atm it'd definitely be Titus. So he goes before Toog imo.

[BBmolla]

Looking at page 8, Titus's reads list, Gnomeo's reads list and Titus's argument with BBMolla and Desperado all point towards Titus as scum: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=175

And yeah I can agree with that

[BBmolla]

Titus how good do you think I am at this game?

I have never played with you before and your moves seem to be well reasoned. I'm supposing you are smart and well experienced until you demonstrate otherwise.

Fair enough.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I voted for Togeloo. I was actually surprised and thought those might be the wrong nominations given that BBMolla had said he'd never put up Togelloo.

Minions, BBMolla, any results from the "cop"?

Pretty much completely ignores the plan and votes Toog. I don't get this at all. But what is the scum motivation to grab a ton of attention? Toog wasn't getting evicted anyways.

[Titus]

1. Imperium (Nacho/Tammy hydra): Town. I very much liked his reads list. Especially the "Town+" part, which includes my strongest reads as well.
2. keybladewielder: Very bad enrance. Not much else. Leaning Scum
3. Titus: Scum. Made some questionable posts earlier and then his comments on KBW look a bit off. The difference in reads also worries me.
4. Minions (Hydra): Leaning town. I like his push on Titus.
6. Bulbazak: Leaning scum. I don't like the direction he tried to lead us to(the HoH choosing by himself)
7. BBmolla: Leaning town. Gut read.
8. peacebringer: null. I did not get a proper read from his posts.
9. blackberry: Leaning town because of his first post.
10. Jake from Rainbow Dash (Hydra of Jake From State Farm and RainbowDash): Town since #47.
11.ToastyToast: Slightly leaning scum. Gut read
12.RachMarie: Null.
13. Toogeloo: Town: His entrance was pretty good and the rest of his posts were fine too. I am fine with his suggestions for elimination.
14. Desperado: Leaning town since #189

Sorry the end of that page should make it clear I am town. Look this is Gnoemo's reads. KBW, Titus, Toasty and Bulba were all scum reads. Bulba was a token scum reads. KBW and Toasty were town and they were slight scums. The hardest scum read (which is what Gnomeo would have pushed for) makes little sense as scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Except Gnomeo always scumreads his buddies and never townreads them. It is a recurring pattern. See 1204