Marketplace Mafia III - Game Over

[Harakiri]

Well, the paranoia version IMO is that you're the scum, so let's go with the grip of sanity version.

[Magua]

Vote Count 3.9

With 18 alive, it takes 10 to lynch.

Nero Cain (5): Lost Butterfly, zMuffinMan, VoidedMafia, Lord Mhork, Harakiri
Seanald (2): ProHawk, pieguyn
KingdomAces (2): Garuda, BBmolla
BBmolla (1): 1baldeagle1

Not Voting (8): PeregrineV, Nero Cain, Seanald, morph the cat, Ghostly Penguin, uʍop ǝpısdn, KingdomAces, JacobSavage

Deadline for Day 3 is Tuesday, November 12th, at 3:00pm EST (site time).
Countdown to deadline:

(expired on 2013-11-12 15:00:00)

Ghostly Penguin has been prodded.

[morph the cat]

Well, the paranoia version IMO is that you're the scum, so let's go with the grip of sanity version.

This is the list. These are ffery thoughts, though I don't think Cabd's thoughts differ much at this point based on our weekend discussions. We haven't formally gone through our reads, though, so there could be a surprise lurking somewhere.

Lost Butterfly - it's kinda freaked me out that faraday has been so absent, but based on reading along with the game he's modding, his availability really is this limited. I have no experience playing with Mina and I hear her scum game is very good. So, despite some amazingly insightful and useful analysis of the bids and advertisements, I worry.

Pie - When he entered the game, my experience with his play was precisely zip. He seems to play a really transparent game, with a fair amount of aggressive questioning. His catch up post read town as fuck. Still think he's town.

Peregrine - I'm basically going with Shaheed's law. if he's scum, town has already lost, so I'm assuming he's town and the efforts we're putting into the game aren't wasted on a foregone conclusion. I probably won't back off this position, but, Cabd and I plan to do some meta analysis well before this game day ends.

upside down - The town read has gotten stale. I haven't played with Quilford before, and my game with N, he was scum. This is another read I don't feel all that qualified to call definitive.

I'm semi-lumping Garuda into this list because even though they aren't in the group that's having funds funneled their direction, they've had a disproportionate impact on my reads and votes. Which is par for the course, even when I have trouble keeping my nacho-read in sharp focus all game day. And that's where I'm at. When he's posting, I follow his logic and observations, and even if I disagree, I can clearly see how he arrives at his reads. I really hate the Hermy lynch though, looking back on it. I asked an open-ended question about her first game, hoping to draw out the lylo self-vote and to at least have a sense if there was a meta basis for the read, or if it was entirely due to her posts in this game. I didn't really get an answer from Nacho. But, time was way short by then and we wound up voting her too. With left hand and right hand scum subteams, the fact that he was a strong and early proponent of the Dr Pepper lynch isn't as strong a town point as it otherwise would be.

Basically, the level of activity on the part of a lot of players since day 3 started, including the five above, has turned some of my reads into mush. I'm glad that we're not in a mad rush like the previous 2 Days, though. I want some time for thought, review, and research.

[Harakiri]

This is the list. These are ffery thoughts, though I don't think Cabd's thoughts differ much at this point based on our weekend discussions. We haven't formally gone through our reads, though, so there could be a surprise lurking somewhere.

Good, I find your thoughts more credible than Cabd's.

Lost Butterfly - it's kinda freaked me out that faraday has been so absent, but based on reading along with the game he's modding, his availability really is this limited. I have no experience playing with Mina and I hear her scum game is very good. So, despite some amazingly insightful and useful analysis of the bids and advertisements, I worry.

I agree with this wholesale.

Pie - When he entered the game, my experience with his play was precisely zip. He seems to play a really transparent game, with a fair amount of aggressive questioning. His catch up post read town as fuck. Still think he's town.

There was one post that gave me pause--I'll have to go find it. Pie's better than I think we're giving credit for.

Peregrine - I'm basically going with Shaheed's law. if he's scum, town has already lost, so I'm assuming he's town and the efforts we're putting into the game aren't wasted on a foregone conclusion. I probably won't back off this position, but, Cabd and I plan to do some meta analysis well before this game day ends.

Yupyup.

upside down - The town read has gotten stale. I haven't played with Quilford before, and my game with N, he was scum. This is another read I don't feel all that qualified to call definitive.

I award you...a Gold Star. I actually want to lynch him kinda today.

I'm semi-lumping Garuda into this list because even though they aren't in the group that's having funds funneled their direction, they've had a disproportionate impact on my reads and votes. Which is par for the course, even when I have trouble keeping my nacho-read in sharp focus all game day. And that's where I'm at. When he's posting, I follow his logic and observations, and even if I disagree, I can clearly see how he arrives at his reads. I really hate the Hermy lynch though, looking back on it. I asked an open-ended question about her first game, hoping to draw out the lylo self-vote and to at least have a sense if there was a meta basis for the read, or if it was entirely due to her posts in this game. I didn't really get an answer from Nacho. But, time was way short by then and we wound up voting her too. With left hand and right hand scum subteams, the fact that he was a strong and early proponent of the Dr Pepper lynch isn't as strong a town point as it otherwise would be..

Yeah I dunno why Nford got the slot over him. The Hermy lynch is something I'm fine with--I did something similar back in Castle when deadline was coming up by forcing through a lynch on a lurker(flipped SK, but that's unimportant). I think Garuda's pretty town, although if I was scum, he chose the target I would have--a mostly-VLA lurker who is likely to be town & no one has ties to. I think it's safe to say he's right hand scum if he is.

For the record, I'm like 90% positive there is scum in the five townreads(part of the reason I didn't follow the plan last night--Sakura's been on complete autopilot for the record), so, um, yeah.

[morph the cat]

What's your reasoning for scum upside down?

[Harakiri]

I got a cop guilty.

In reality, I think he's flooding the thread in unnecessary bullshit & POE & gut.

[Seanald]

^ agreed on that as well

[PeregrineV]

Not to worry, I'm town.

Still have work to do but just wondering where the hell is every one?

[morph the cat]

I got a cop guilty.

In reality, I think he's flooding the thread in

unnecessary bullshit

& POE & gut.

We have more posts than they do. :/

I think most of them aren't unnecessary bullshit. This one could be an exception!

[Lost Butterfly]

You know, given all the bitching over the plan and the people who were chosen, I'm surprised that no one has suggested we reshuffle the six town reads today. Or just come up with a

new

plan involving forcing only four or five people to transfer money. Be proactive, people!

The best aspect of the current plan is that since bids are public, the people in the circle are accountable for what they can do with the money. I'm kind of on the fence to whether this makes it worth it, given that scum can pool their money and we don't know their wage or how much, but still, it makes it easier for us to catch people. For example, if the NK goes for something like $700, but there's a NK on the following night...

morph, is your logic for us treating Pere like confirmed town really that he was sent lots and lots of money, so we lose if he's scum? (There are many, many problems with this argument.) Or is there something in particular he's said?

To be honest, I'm not as sure Peregrine is town as the "late" Faraday was, so concrete reasons would be useful.

[Lost Butterfly]

EBWOP: given that scum can pool their money and we don't know their wage or how much

they have saved

.

[morph the cat]

You know, given all the bitching over the plan and the people who were chosen, I'm surprised that no one has suggested we reshuffle the six town reads today. Or just come up with a

new

plan involving forcing only four or five people to transfer money. Be proactive, people!

The best aspect of the current plan is that since bids are public, the people in the circle are accountable for what they can do with the money. I'm kind of on the fence to whether this makes it worth it, given that scum can pool their money and we don't know their wage or how much, but still, it makes it easier for us to catch people. For example, if the NK goes for something like $700, but there's a NK on the following night...

morph, is your logic for us treating Pere like confirmed town really that he was sent lots and lots of money, so we lose if he's scum? (There are many, many problems with this argument.) Or is there something in particular he's said?

To be honest, I'm not as sure Peregrine is town as the "late" Faraday was, so concrete reasons would be useful.

Tons of money plus the neighborizer. If he's scum, he's probably already stitched together the left and right hand teams. In other words, pure freefloating paranoia. If his posts didn't strike me as ubertown on day 2 there's no way I would have voted to put him in the send-money pile given he had neighborizer.

[Lost Butterfly]

The whole "omg u r sew stupid [if you thing Mhork was implying you were lurking scum] for thinking that">>"ok well yeah, he implied that and didn't know what he was saying." seemed rather forced to me.

ok. is that it? your argument with mhork is not why i thought you were scum (the only reason it's become a conversation point is because

you

made a big deal out of it as a sticking point). the main reasons i think you're scum are that your contributions to the game, when you actually make contributions, are weak as shit. D1 your arguments for thinking harakiri was scum were bad (and i broke these down towards the end of D1) and apart from the harakiri read, i don't remember any contributions from you D1 worth noting. D2 was much of the same, except now you're either calling everyone attacking you scum or you've downgraded them to null reads. even if it's you we're talking about here, the fact you have no scum reads outside the people wagoning you is hilarious.

Eh...I find the latter part of this pretty disingenuous. (The part about Harakiri is dead-on.) 1) OMGUS-ing is not and will never be a scumtell, and 2) Nero has been attacking you, Voided, and Mhork for a really long time. Never mind that I don't think we've ever been a town read of his (at the very least, I remember we weren't in his list of six yesterday).

Muffin, on a scale from 1 to 10, how much of the confidence you project in the thread that Nero is scum is completely genuine?

[Lost Butterfly]

For the record, I hate hate hate hate HATE the argument that "if someone is scum, they've already won, so let's treat them as confirmed town." The absolute worst thing that happens if scum link up and control all the money is...the game becomes mountainous aside from the occasional shortened deadline, and we play against one big scumteam instead of two small ones.

Had stuff I wanted to say about Voided, but it'll come after work (as will stuff about the D2 wagon that I'm being too lazy to write).

[PeregrineV]

@PV:

Fuck off I've said it twice already.

She was in the top 6 and I figured enough people were calling her town for her to be a serious night kill target.

Just because I'd like to actually type this as a real post, my reasoning was fairly simple. I wanted to pick one of the Big Six because that's where the money was headed. Concentrated money was a more likely target for scum to shoot at, so it seemed fairly straightforward to medium one of them. Then I factored in general mood and I recalled a lot of people proclaiming obvtown Pyro more than obv town anyone else, so I figured if that stuck in my mind, it probably would have been stuck in other peoples' mind. Plus I generally think more highly of Pyro's opinion since Pyro was really, really town >.>

In addition Tammy refused to confirm any thing with regard to abilities owned or money possessed until she sees what other people did.

Town:

Voidedmafia
zmuffinman
Lost Butterfly
Pyromaniacs
morph the cat
1baldeagle1

Abilities:

Cop
Doctor
Auction Detective
Watcher
Neighborizer

I did miss this reason (2299), but Pyro was drawing criticism from some of the other "town reads", so not sure how you picked up her "obvtownness" from other people.

Will investigate.

[morph the cat]

I did miss this reason (2299), but Pyro was drawing criticism from some of the other "town reads", so not sure how you picked up her "obvtownness" from other people.

Will investigate.

I'm pretty sure she wound up with the most votes in the 6-town-reads lists.

[Lost Butterfly]

Nope, that was us! I'm arrogant enough to pay attention to stuff like that.

</off for real>

[Lost Butterfly]

(Not that that actually matters, anyway. I just wanted to brag.)

[Lord Mhork]

Not my big six. The Big Six. The people getting the money. I remember her being declared as obv town from a few people.

Also the fact that you were surprised about the night kill means nothing in relation to me guessing correctly on Pyro.

Tammy Updates:
They know nothing about the amount of money they received last night until they actually die. However they like Prohawk for town for stating an amount of money while not knowing that they wouldn't know the correct answer. In addition baldeagle is likely town.

They didn't bid on night kill or win any of their auctions.

Tammy wants empire and molla to talk more, as well as Lost Butterfly.

She doesn't like Nero having said he sent her money when he didn't have her as a town read. BBmolla is probably town, morph is probably town, and Lost Butterfly is still probably scum, according to her.

[KingdomAces]

I literally just sat around trying to figure out what it meant for like ten minutes.

Well, what exactly confused you about it?

On one hand, everything about the explanation makes sense and explains the problems I had with it. On the other hand, the way it was phrased made it seem like you were completely disavowing any ownership of what you said after I showed a possible negative light it could be portrayed in. Really, it's probably just null all around anyway and I just had already done enough that I wanted to try to force myself to get at least

something

out of it. Separating the rest of the response and not quoting it, so people don't go "Oh look, quote strips." and then just skip them completely.

---

To be honest, I've been purposely avoiding Nero. While I can't say I know much about him, everything I do know just makes me even less confident that I can actually get anything from him. I will try to figure him out though.

I think it's pretty clear that he has had a bad experience with White Knighting in the past, and when he saw the possibility that it could happen again, he went on a crusade strongly believing that his conclusion was right, so everything else only looks like more proof. (I'm not criticizing him for it though, I did the exact same thing in Survivor: Arkham Asylum, if anyone here actually pays attention to those.) While this does mean that I really don't trust his VCA, this really does increase my townread on him, since I don't think scum's righteousness sensors would get triggered like that, since they would know your alignment in the first place, so subconsciously he would be unable to believe his conviction as strongly as it appears he does.

And I lost track of time. I'll get to the rest of the questions later when I have time to actually give thorough answers that solely comprised of the words "null" or "gut", because that's what you'd get if I tried to answer them now.

PEDIT: I've apparently been on this reply screen for 40 minutes. Yes, I'm that slow. No, I'm not going to take the time now to read the pedits.

[1baldeagle1]

VOTE: VoidedMafia

Changed my mind, not gonna do a meta check.

[1baldeagle1]

Are we doing the Plan thing again tonight?

[Ghostly Penguin]

*Picks up the prod*

*Drops it*.

Seriously, I'm trying to get my head back into this fucking thing. The thread has gained a life of it's own and it's strangling the shit out of me.

[BBmolla]

Faramina have you decided I'm town yet

[Nero Cain]

I really don't believe he was making an observation like at all. For the life of me I can't see how you, muffin and Voided think that.

That's just how I read it, really.

ok and I read it another way so why is it scummy that I've read it differently?

look! An attempt to derail the DP lynch.

That's a rather small (and weak) attempt at doing so, though. Why does this ping you as wagon derailment?

DP flipped scum, I know I'm town, I know I'm an easy mislynch target. Do you really think that scum wouldn't try to stop the DP scum lynch? If you think they did then who was trying to derail the DP wagon?

Why would scum medium dead scum?

Scum medium-ing dead scum isn't a bad idea, so long as the scum in question is someone who would be very conducive to scum planning and efforts. As I said when the question was first brought up, I don't think DP is that kind of person.

ok but I'm asking PV not you so why are you interjecting yourself here?

I also agree that that Sean-Voided is the most likely bussin' area.

Why Sean-me?

I think its a nice cushy area when the wagon is serious but being at the tail end of a wagon is usually considered p scummy. Can you quote the post where you asked PIE why he felt the DP bussers were Harakiri/you.

I also think scum are a lil' less likely to start a bandwagon and I've explained Harakiri so w/e.

Wouldn't this run a little contrary to your scumread on me, since I kinda started the wagon on you?

Well not today unless you are like a LB alt. Can you quote the VC where you are te leader of my wagon?