NY 167: COMPLETELY NORMAL Mafia (GAME OVER)

[Guyett]

Also I'd love to hear what seperates me from the likes of Caled who has actually done nothing and apparently has no interest in contributing to the game.
I'm sure every single fucking oost of mine is terribad -_-

[Guyett]

And its a bit rich of you coming at me for 'bad play'. You've buddied your way through the start of the day and then started tunnelling on ms without saying anything other than "bad play... lynch" and "lol hypocrisy". Get of your high horse and stop pushing a bullshit policy lynch that will do town NO GOOD FFS

[goodmorning]

SRSLY GUYS

POSTS EVERYWHERE

Votecount 1.28

Guyett [L-5] - PeregrineV, Sakura Hana, TheIrishPope, Angry Frat BROs

JacobSavage [L-5] - sangres, MC Maraca, orcinus_theoriginal, Doctor Jekyll

Angry Frat BROs [L-7] - likeabauss, yessiree

Sakura Hana [L-8] - Hermy

Hermy [L-8] - RadiantCowbells

sangres [L-8] - Guyett

orcinus_theoriginal [L-8] - MVP

Not Voting [4] - JacobSavage, caledfwitch, Toomai

With 17 alive, it takes

9

to lynch. The day will end in (expired on 2013-11-20 09:39:00)

[RadiantCowbells]

I really need time to catch up.

[MVP]

Mara, I know Rank like you know TIP.

likeabauss

, I know you can read Rank like a book. What is he?

Rank

, I know you can read likeabauss like a book. What is he?

Too soon to be certain, but Rank is most likely town.

So, when asked about Rank early, you say he's most likely town.

I never left. The guy you replaced, Rank, is my brother from another mother. We've been playing mafia together for like 10 years. Him replacing out means he was scum. Means you are scum. You should tread carefully, because between you and FratBoys, I've got two mafia and its still early on D1

But you change your read on him solely based on his replacement? If not, what changed? It feels like you're trying not to back-track on your earlier discussion with AFB. I don't see any alignment indicative reason for Rank to replace out because there wasn't even any pressure directed towards him.

~Pete

[Cephrir]

Hi. I'm gonna stop being Jekyll now. It's not working and it's not worth the effort. /egopost

[likeabauss]

Pistol Pete Maravich? I hope.

FWIW, this read is a bit bullshit and I feel bad for it, but I can't ignore it. That said, here's the deal with the Rank read:

As a player, Rank doesn't like being scum. But he loves being town. His scum game isn't that good, and it's less exciting for him. But, the best part of the game for Rank as town? D1. He loves it. I love it. We thrive on it. D1 reads and lynching is what separates the men from the boys in our opinions/world. We have probably hundreds of hours bullshitting and talking about D1 reads, psychology, sociology, profiles, maneuvers, etc etc. It's LITERALLY the highlight of the game for us as players. And the source of much bragging or shit talking in post game chats.

So, Rank's early play seemed townish to me. There wasn't much to go on, but it seemed typical. He stays light until stuff develops (much like I do), dropping the occasional potshot or poking the bear when he sees a chance. But him replacing out? 100% scum move. As town, he'd have lingered, read, contributed when he could and stuck around through D1 at least. Bought some time. As scum? He wouldn't want to gimp his team, he'd bail quickly and early to give them the best chance at victory. Which he did here. Town play doesn't require as much activity as scum play to be successful. You read, you think, you post, and come and go as you can. Example: Rank just recently detail read a 100 page D1 of a game in under a 24 hour period and started slinging reads and opinions instantly. Why? How? It was D1. SuperBowl Sunday. Bases loaded, 2 outs, full count, down by 3 in the bottom of the 9th.

Rank's slot is scum. But, I picked up on the FratBoys scum slot before Rank's, hence why my vote is on him and why I want to lynch FratBoys first then Rank's slot second. Some details on my FratBoys read coming up...

[MC Maraca]

Okay so at first I thought you were just floating the theory to see who bites. But obviously you're serious about this.
Let me grab my checklist.

[MC Maraca]

Your theory about this slot advocates a(n)

( ) insightful

(X) interesting

( ) uncommon ( ) crazy

approach to reading it. Your method will not work. Here is why it won't work. (One or more of the following may apply to your particular idea, and it may have other flaws which vary from player to player)

( ) Scum can use it as a blank check to hide.

(X) It is just as likely to get false positives.
(X) It does not account for other potential reasons to replace out
(X) Your solution speculates as to motives not apparent to everyone
(X) Your theory requires us to treat you as confirmed town
(X) My read disagrees with the slot being "obvscum"
(X) WIFOM says the player would have known you'd do this if it was scum
(X) Anyone could fake the result they want since it's only your word

Specifically, your plan fails to account for

( ) Lack of confirmed townies
( ) Timezones
( ) The claim from that slot
( ) Ease of planning a response in advance assuming scum daychat
( ) Asshats
( ) Nobody trusts you
( ) Unpopularity of new gambits

(X) The existence of already successful scumhunting tactics

( ) Susceptibility of newbtown to fall for it as well
( ) Willingness of players to give you a chance
( ) People who hate your play
( ) Scum safeclaims given by mod

and the following philosophical objections may also apply:

(X) It could just as easily be WIFOM
(X) Ideas similar to yours are easy to come up with, yet none have ever
been shown reliable

( ) Any scheme based on opt-out is unacceptable
( ) Flavor Gambits suck

(X) Why should we have to trust you and your methods?

( ) Incompatibility with the current player base
( ) Feel-good measures do nothing to solve the problem
( ) Revealing info does nothing but assist scum
( ) Killing them that way is not slow and painful enough

Furthermore, this is what I think about you:

(X) Sorry dude, but I don't think it's a viable tell.

( ) This is a stupid idea, and you're a stupid person for suggesting it.
( ) Nice try, assh0le! I'm going to find out where you live and burn your
house down!

[Sakura Hana]

Hey Cabd can i steal that checklist?

[MC Maraca]

Hey Cabd can i steal that checklist?

http://craphound.com/spamsolutions.txt

[Sakura Hana]

Thanks

[MC Maraca]

Thanks

Since you're here, updated reads from the past few pages?

[likeabauss]

POST

I find this post very interesting. It's a major deviation from what I expect from your slot.

Riddle me this Batman... why would you actively/instantly discredit a observation like the one I've made? Why not give Orcinus a chance to respond? Or perhaps somebody else that may have played a game where Rank and I played together and saw the dynamic. Why not ask some questions or dig a bit instead of funny checklist? Seems strange. Elaborate please.

I'm guessing that was not the Mara head? Please advise.

[MC Maraca]

It's one of the signature posts I make when I think somebody is spouting a theory that is shit/baseless/unconfirmable. I can link you past instances of its use if you wish. I've stalked you and rank playing together, I've read your TV hydrae games.

[Cephrir]

I've stalked everyone all the time always

ftfy

[Sakura Hana]

Thanks

Since you're here, updated reads from the past few pages?

You seem oddly interested on my reads this game considering you know that I can lie about my reads as town to set up for gambits.

But sure if anything AFB is moving from town to null-town, and TIP is more town, Guyett is more scum, and I still got a null read on you because idk when the heck Mara is posting, so im treating everything as Cabd.

bauss' comments on orc are interesting yes, but i dont think either of them is scum yet. (Inb4 fence sitting).

Idk how the heck to read Cephrir either, at times he looked town and at times scum so that's another null.

MVP is a collection of people whom i dont know the identity, so idk how to read them and im treating them as a single entity instead, null leaning scum.

caledf is being super lurky and is bothering me.

RC is being RC, null.

and the others I haven't formed a decent opinion on yet...

[likeabauss]

On FratBros:
I'm semi reluctant to go in depth and share all my reads lately, because people on this board have been reluctant to acknowledge the usefulness or validity of them. I play pretty differently it seems than most here, and it's a lot of work to make these elaborate cases, clearly explain them, and get people to follow me.

I'm also fighting a losing battle because it's becoming more and more clear to me that the scum in this game are the cool kids, and I'm not going to be able to lynch any of them if they just stick together and refuse to bus or break ranks.

A lot of what I do is based on profiling, and psychobabble bullshit. It's often nuance, but it's found in almost all human communication and it's fun/exciting for me. So, I keep my eyes open for it, and when I see clues I begin to apply pressure without revealing everything I saw. And then I look for patterns that ping. There's a couple with FratBros.

1) Do you have any empirical evidence backing that claim, because it looks like a load of bullshit.

2) Sorry not sorry that we're excited to play with a bunch of players that we like.

3) You missed the part where I said that I'm townreading all the active players other than RC (active being players with more posts than the mod at that time).

This hydra head here made some mistakes, unknowingly. I call this the burden of guilt. I've touched on this in other games, and I'll hit it again here. AngryFratBros knows he's scum, and is trying to hide it/mask it/refute it. The nuance of this comes across a couple times.

See line 1. He's challenging the basis of the argument, the means if you will, not the end. His phrasing and word choice is not saying "I'm town, you're retarded" it's saying, "Your argument is retarded/baseless, therefore I'm town." This is a window into what's going on inside his brain. Proof or GTFO is a common response from scum when called out. As if anybody ever really PROVES that somebody is scum on D1, without night info, or hard line evidence. But the psychology that manifest from a perspective of town or scum in this situation it is dramatically different. That word choice was confirmation for me that he is scum. After the clues I picked up on previously that made me suspect him. I've pegged other players on this site with methods like this before.

(In bussing Mara once, I used a similar tell to create my own original case against her. I took the town cred and went on to victory, where she called me a sweet mutha fucker and said she loved me. Now, no love. Why? Likely because Mara is scum too. But I digress, more later...) P-edit: Sakura onto it too.

But lets look at item 3) in the quote above. It's in response to:

I saw some town cheer leading "Scummers, get in here and post." which loosely translates to "I'm a posting machine, so obviously not scum. The scum just aren't posting."

He was hell bent on DEFENDING the accusation. So he defended the piece of it that he could, the "town cheerleading" as I called it (which, let's face it... was pretty bullshit and easy to refute.) But he didn't even see what I was really getting at and affirmed it on his own shortly after. I asked more to clarify and dig. Quick recap:

He showed up and started posting a storm. Shortly after, this gem:

There's a lot of people here who need to so something.

Especially the scum. Other than RC, none of the posters more prolific than the mod have pinged.

This is another window inside his brain. He's openly insinuating/stating that the scum aren't posting, as he's only got 1 scumread from the active player base. But this is two fold bad:
1) It's easier to setup a lynch on the less active, less vocal players. Derp Derp. Scum.
2) He's directly and indirectly demonstrating/validating/supporting a behavior that he's using to mask his scummy taint. He's not afraid to post a lot, be vocal. He's behaving that way. And he's also stating that the scum in this game are NOT posting a lot and being vocal. It's a complimentary maneuver. (this is the psychobabble)

After I asked a followup question to develop what I was onto a bit, he responded:

3) You called my comments to the lurkers "town cheerleading," when I made it plenty clear that I was townreading the vast majority of the active players. There are very few players (read: one) that I feel comfortable reading after only a few posts. That you're trying to spin that as "town cheerleading" is bad and you should feel bad.

Again, he's defending that cheerleading... not what I was really looking at. The behavior of posting a lot, saying scum aren't posting, and setting up an easy mislynch (town that isn't posting much.)

Easier to analyze behaviors:

Let's face it.... we have a pretty open vouch that something is up with RadiantCowbells. Along with enough of a breadcrumb that we can wait and see what shakes out. Why push that?

I laid out the momentum swing onto Guyett in a previous post. Scummy. As. Fuck. Why did he do that?

He actively defended Orcinus from me. I'm sure Orcinus is scum, and FratBros is scum. He knee jerked and defended him when I got on him. WHY WOULD YOU DEFEND SOMEBODY THAT JUST REPLACED INTO A GAME FROM ANOTHER PLAYER THAT'S HEATING HIM UP? It's anti-town behavior. Let me flame and fry and develop content. Don't stop me and defend somebody. Townies don't know alignment, so are reluctant to actively defend somebody else in the absence of a good solid read. He literally stepped right up and laid into defending his scum teammate from the big bad Bauss. Fail.

I have more, but time is short for me and I don't think FratBoys will hang today given my mapping of who's who. If you're town, you should just sheep me and we'll lynch two scum back to back.

Scum list:
FratBoys - high certainty
Orcinus (Rank) - high certainty
Mara - medium certainty

[Hermy]

I'm not a fan of how quickly the votes for Guyett built up. Too many, too quickly. And some of the people voting for him aren't all that town-y to me. I didn't like Guyett's self-vote, but it could just be irritated/panicked town.

RC has decided to go lurky for a few days, and waited for suspicion to be drawn to other people.

I'm liking orincus as town right now.

Hermy will post a nice and detailed reads list whenever she motivates herself to go check this website on her computer, as she does not have the willpower to do so on her iPod.

I'm not a fan of JS's ISO, and I'm townreading near enough the entire wagon.

VOTE: JS

[Cephrir]

Oh boy, I finally got one townread I am reasonably confident in! I was actually thinking about drawing up a reads list before post 842 happened with likeabauss on top of it, mostly due to my overall lack of conviction this game, but damn that moonlogic (there's a better word for this I know) is so town. And this is not the same as towndrugs, because his reasons are not ludicrous. town, town, town, town, town.

[Cephrir]

(by "with likeabauss on top of it" I mean as my towniest read)

(I might still do this but I'm pretty sure everyone but likeabauss would be in one 'leaning' section or the other at this point)

[likeabauss]

I've stalked you and rank playing together, I've read your TV hydrae games.

This is you subtly suggesting that you understand and know me. And it positions you as informed about my play and style. What is the real purpose of this statement? I know that you have read me.

This statement was made entirely to convince other players that they should trust your opinion on me. You slid it in at the end of a completely unrelated point (your checklist usage.) You're actively setting up to discredit me rather than explore my lines of thinking. This is highly anti-town and likely scum.

I can't see another scenario. Especially from you.

[likeabauss]

Townies, please no full reads lists. We are up against a very smart and aggressive scum team. They will leverage your reads list against you. Chase your scum suspects, keep your town reads close for a game day or two.

[Hermy]

Townies, please no full reads lists. We are up against a very smart and aggressive scum team. They will leverage your reads list against you. Chase your scum suspects, keep your town reads close for a game day or two.

M'kay. Many pages ago I was asked for townreads but eeh, good point.

[Sakura Hana]

Townies, please no full reads lists. We are up against a very smart and aggressive scum team. They will leverage your reads list against you. Chase your scum suspects, keep your town reads close for a game day or two.

Excuse me but I was asked a question (And i put most of them in null anyway)