Micro 252: There Is No Doctor - END

[The Purple Rose]

You just spelled out why TIP is a good compromise lynch. However, if you have a better suggestion, let me know. I only have a few that I will not lynch under any circumstances.

Would it help if I asked really nicely and said "please"?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I'm not dying today, TPR.

[The Purple Rose]

I hope you are right. Do you want to vote pitoli with me?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I want to lynch TBone.

But you made a really good point about the cop comment. I missed that.

I'm looking at her ISO right now.

[The Purple Rose]

to be fair, it was chaosomega who caught it, I just said he was right about it and continued the push.

Chaosomega, who happened to be the same slot you want to lynch *cough*

[sangres]

I'm not dying today, TPR.

This pings.

[Lastsurvivor]

You just spelled out why TIP is a good compromise lynch. However, if you have a better suggestion, let me know. I only have a few that I will not lynch under any circumstances.

I think we interpret what makes a good compromise lynch differently.

Regardless, I'd rather we have some information to look back upon with whoever we lynch if they flip town, and TiP has provided little to none. That said, he's honestly not the worst compromise lynch...I'm just skeptical of your motivations!

Looking at the most recent vote count...

Bulbazak - 2 - sangres Lastsurvivor
TheIrishPope - 2 - pitoli, Bulbazak
pitoli - 1 - The Purple Rose
T-Bone - 1 - EspeciallyTheLies,
The Purple Rose - 1 - TheIrishPope
EspeciallyTheLies - 1 - T-Bone

I don't think I'd vote ETL or Pit. I'd be skeptical about a TPR lynch, since it just screams "compromise mislynch."

No real reservations about T-B. Granted I've only played with T-B once or twice (and he was town in all games), but in those games he came off more...mellow? Might do a meta comparison!

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

LastSurvivor, why is Purple Rose town?

[Lastsurvivor]

She's my weakest town read (null, if you will), but her freak out to ETL earlier on in the day resonated town to me, and she hasn't done anything that has screamed scum.

That said, I haven't been paying much attention to her, so I might re-ISO her in this scramble.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I'm not dying today, TPR.

This pings.

She was saying she wanted me lynched. Then asked Bulb if he would lynch people in his "no lynch pool" if she said "pretty please". It was comment that I wasn't going to let her push a fabricated case on me to get me lynched.

[T-Bone]

@LS lol meta

[The Purple Rose]

I did not do such a thing. I wanted to ask bulba nicely to join the wagon on pitoli. I am a bit confused how you could mistake my intentions since I've been solely pushing for pitoli for a week now.

@lastsurvivor, same goes for you I guess. Would you kindly read my posts, the last page is as good as any, and join the wagon on pitoli? Thank you in advance.

[T-Bone]

TPR is about my strongest townread. I intend to vote pitoli since the ETL lynch isn't happening today. Pitoli of course, needs to come back to us.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I did not do such a thing. I wanted to ask bulba nicely to join the wagon on pitoli. I am a bit confused how you could mistake my intentions since I've been solely pushing for pitoli for a week now.

@lastsurvivor, same goes for you I guess. Would you kindly read my posts, the last page is as good as any, and join the wagon on pitoli? Thank you in advance.

You mentioned just a page or two ago that you still think I'm scum. It is a reasonable assumption to make that I am included in your list of preferred lynches.

[Lastsurvivor]

@LS lol meta

To be fair, it seems that meta has taken over the mafia metagame if this game is any indication.

@TPR: I've read your most recent post, haven't convinced me. I was convinced in Pit-town when I reread her argument with TiP calling him out for voting F16. I think she noticed a good point there, since it convinced me of the possibility of TiPscum.

I'm not buying the GF tell. I'm just not.

[T-Bone]

Re: Theory for a moment....I roll my eyes because I've never seen it effectively used so...

[BBmolla]

@Mod, you did make a mistake, I'm voting BBMolla.

um... <_<?

[sangres]

Donner Party game

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=27049

Bulbazak was the SK in this set up and replaced in on night 1.

531 - Catch-up/reads post. Comparing this to the reads lists from ny165 there's a significant stylistic difference. This list is breezy and comparatively shallow. He votes goodmorning (who was scum).

571 He moves to Svenskt, who did look pretty scummy.

714 - declares svenskt town and goes back to the GM wagon. In 721 he says that he's "going back to my strongest scum read" with his GM vote. Sort of a binary read, based on a very towny post by Svenskt that did turn his wagon around for a while.

He stayed here (absent from the site?) while Svenskt was lynched on what looked like a counterclaim from another player, but wasn't.

852 is his first post of day 3 and he puts his GM vote back down while FoSing Syryana.

869 Day 3 reads list. His play on day 3 had me pretty much convinced he was town. I wanted to see my town reads aligned in votes that day because it was potentially 3-2-1 (as it turned out it was exactly 3-2-1 and basically town's best chance to pull out a win). He argued for a GM lynch continually through this game day until post 1026 when he flips to Syryana. I think he was genuinely scumhunting, and he's told me in other games where I've brought this game up that he did think GM was scum, and thought that Syr was the 2nd scum. I wouldn't vote Syr, but Otolia (who I thought was the SK) did vote him, and Bulbazak hammered. His read on GM didn't change, but based on the unwillingness of other players to hammer her at that time, he switched to his other scum read.

Day 4 was 1-1-1 LYLO. He had the final scum figured out. I wound up in the unfortunate position of kingmaker and hammered scum rather than SK.

------

So this is another game where his vote changes mostly weren't based on a binary read-flip from scum to town, but rather on changing opinions about who looked scummiest of his scum reads, and perhaps who he thought was a viable lynch candidate at various points during the game. The read flip on Svenskt has a binary feel, though as he said after his vote change he was going back to his strongest scum read in re-voting GM. Still I think this game does provide at least some support for the binary read theory.

@F16

, what did you find in your metadives?

[T-Bone]

Okay so what's your take away from that?

[sangres]

My takeaway is that binary flips aren't definitively town-bulba behaviors.

[pitoli]

Hey guys, sorry for neglecting the game these past few days. My internet is slightly better and so I'm planning to catch up tonight/tomorrow.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Micro 241: Chain of Command (Most recent completed towngame)

He was lynched Day 1. The scumteam were Elyse and Mastin2.

40 Starts off with suspicion of Elyse.

49 Wisdom (town) suspects him for pushing on Elyse and he starts responding and justifying his push on Elyse.

75 Expresses suspicion of 50 Shades of Purple for "playing it safe" while continuing to make the Elyse push.

76 Accuses Flammus of lurking; doesn't say anything about his alignment.

87

A vote switch to 50 Shades.

He refutes Elyse's arguments, points out that both Elyse and 50 Shades have done scummy things, refutes 50 shades and changes his vote.

Comments: There is a one post indication that he finds 50 Shades scummy before he switches his vote which was on 75. So, the suspicion here was building up and 50 Shades seems to have overtaken Elyse as the most scummy. The suspicion on Elyse still remains.

97 He calls Wisdom "dense" which is ambiguous but I interpret it as him having at least a null/townread on Wisdom. He is pushing both 50 Shades and Elyse at this point so I assume he didn't think Wisdom was scum. He is also willing at this point to compromise between both 50 Shades and Elyse.

110 Attempts to persuade Wisdom that Elyse and 50 Shades are scum while attacking 50 Shades's response to him. He explains the compromise saying that no one is buying his Elyse push so is going after a different target with the intention to come back to Elyse at a different time.

217 His suspicion of Wisdom starts here. As you can see, it is very mildly worded and shows that he wants to understand Wisdom's thought process. I am not even entirely sure if this is "suspicion" or not - rather something that seemed to ping Bulbazak.

142 Explains that Wisdom's actions could come from either alignment and that he will sort Wisdom later. Bulbazack as town seems to put aside people that he doesn't understand to sort later. This actually seems remarkably similar to him putting me aside to sort later while going after Pitoli. In this game, he had Pitoli as a strong scumread and me as potentially scum but unlikely to be scum with Pitoli. So, he puts me as null/town to sort me later. In the Chain of Command game, he already had two strong scumreads (50 and Elyse), so puts Wisdom aside to sort later. The common theme is that he thinks actions from me/Wisdom may be scummy but they didn't actually make sense with his other scumreads. 162 shows more of the same sentiment.

Bulbazak's back and forth exchange with Wisdom looks like Bulbazak is trying to sort out Wisdom by asking him who the scum are and telling him to scumhunt. The suspicion seems to be there but it is very restrained and suppressed considering Bulbazak was pushing a 50/Elyse scumteam.

Something I noticed in this game which made sense with the N is for Newbie game is that he is always hunting pairs and has around two people that he consistently pushes on (assuming a 9P game). That is one thing that worries me - the majority of the time here, he has less than two suspects. I am not sure if this has anything to do with affiliation though until I check completed scumgames.

210 Says that he hasn't got townvibes from Nacho and that Nacho is null at best. I can see the underlying motivation for this read (other people are being way too scummy, so Bulbazak second guesses his read on 50 Shades.

304 Considers the possibility of Wisdom being scum. Seems to be opening up to 50 Shades/Nacho especially. Says he will vote Wisdom if 50 Shades tells him how it is different from town-Wisdom. It seems like he wants to vote for Wisdom and that his scumread on 50 Shades is going away. An interesting note is that Bulbazak offers rarely any indication or explicit statements that his scumread has gone.

50 Shades persuades him into voting Wisdom explaining the reasoning for their scumread on him.

311

Switches vote to Wisdom.

It is unclear at this point what his reads are on Elyse and 50 Shades.

333 The post says it all (

DING DING DING!!! Elyse-scum confirmed!

)
So, at this point, Bulbazak is looking at Wisdom and Elyse as the scumteam. The scumread on 50 Shades of Purple seems to have gone. Regarding Binary reads, I could see the read on 50 Shades dropping from scum to null and then disappearing possibly at the time of the vote switch. I certainly see it as somewhat gradual.

364 Says he is worried that Nacho hasn't been obvtown yet and that it is making him nervous about that slot. But he doesn't persue 50 Sahdes/Nacho at that time preferring to stay on Wisdom.

390

Switches vote to Elyse

based on a post that he seemed to find scummy. Wisdom still seems to be a scumread. 50 Shades possibly Null/Scum/Making him uncomfortable pile.

477

Switches vote to Wisdom

Doesn't say anything about reads on Elyse or 50.

527 Strong appeal to the town, says that Wisdom is scum along with Elyse. Does not mention that the drop in 50 Shades read at all. Bulbazak as town does not overexplain his read switches at all. It comes naturally and effortlessly and he rarely if ever mentions dropping a scumread - he simply moves on unless someone grills him on it - in this game, it was LastSurvivor. This was part of the reason that gave me a townread on him. It is something I'll keep in mind when evaluating his scum games to see if it is any different or if it is anything worth persuing.

Most of page 22 involves a back-and-forth with Wisdom.

680 Explains the townread on 50 Shades as due to paranoia.

692 Explain to ETL that he started thinking 50 Shades were town a while ago. He even said he stated something to that effect earlier and points out a quote of his from 527.

---

He drops his 50 Shades vote and moves onto Wisdom because Wisdom becomes a stronger scumread. But 50 Shades paranoia is still there. That situation mirrors his vote on me while keeping Pitoli as his second scumread although there is no analogy to the drop in Pitoli suspicion. I agree that there isn't much evidence of it in towngames. I'll have to check scumgames to verify if it is a pattern or if it is just something anomalous to this game. One interesting thing I noticed though is that Bulbazak doesn't often explain it when he drops a scumread. He just moves on unless someone asks about it. That is common here and in the Chain of Command game.

Binary reads: I actually think I found some good stuff but I am not sure if I am interpreting this correctly: Look closely at his 698. He says "

ETL, I started townreading Shades after Mollie came in and went full paranoid on me. That was the towntell I had been waiting for. All of the posts you quoted are from before that point, and they really weren't in the thread much after that.

" So, just like in this game, there was a trigger (paranoia in the case of Chain of Command). When that happened, the read changed. So, I look back at his ISO to see where he mentioned 50 Shades read. He claimed in 692 that 527 was the time when he stated a change in read. So, I look to see what hapenned before 527. ISO them together:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
After Bulbazak's 393, it was mostly 50 Shades/Mollie posting. She votes Bulbazak and makes a series of paranoia posts. Much later Bulbazak has his computer fixed and returns to the thread. in 477. He never mentions going back on the scumread but he that seems to be the point where he starts townreading 50 Shades. Whether or not, it is Binary is debatable. There were certainly indicators that he was relaxing on his scumread, for instance where he starts reading them as null. It is not a full flop from strong town to strong scum. But then again, there were minor indicators that he was relaxing his read on Pitoli too, especially at the point where he says that I could be scum without her. As for the Binary read switches, it seems inconclusive until I get a chance to review his scumgames. Another note I wanted to make was that his scumreads here were absolute. No "leaning" or "null." He believed he caught both scum and that they were the scumteam. I wonder if it is different in scumgames.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Bulbazak, what you think about voting The Purple Rose over TIP? I had a strong scumread on TIP but The Purple Rose's push on Pitoli just seems unreasonable at this point. Pitoli had explained her reasoning for wanting to be investigated which convinced even you. The majority of the Purple Rose's posts have been tunneling Pitoli and in his case, I don't find it very genuine.

@ ffery, LastSuvivor, you have your votes on Bulbazak. I am not sure about him either way but even if I were to vote him, you should realize that you would still need two more votes to get a lynch which seems unlikely to happen before deadline. What do you think about lynching TPR instead? Currently, he's my strongest scumread and I'd prefer to vote him over anyone else. But he also seems like a viable lynch. The last few pages of push on Pitoli based on the "GF tell" struck me as a huge stretch to the point where I doubt TPR even believes what he is saying.

[Bulbazak]

F-16, I'm just not as convinced about a Rose lynch as you are. Maybe it's because what she says resonates on some level, but I'm just not feeling it.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Bulbazak, you are not okay with lynching someone who you are divided on. Why is TIP who you read as town a better option?