Newbie 1437 - Chocolate Fondue Mafia (Over)

[jmo16mla]

I'm not convinced you aren't scum.. I'm also not convinced you're not flays partner. I'm not convince that partners are going to vote seperately.

[geraintm]

Oh, if me and flay are scum partners and we are pulling off this mega play, then town is upper the creek already. Town has had no success so far in this game and is in back to back lynch or lose, so if scum had planned this then town is doomed.
But, scum were so far ahead in this game - and if scum don't win this they will be kicking themselves - they had no need to run one pushing the other. And there could have been a guilty cop verdict hidden to ruin it too.
Jmo, if you are considering me and flay as partners, then go through what would have had to happen for this to have worked for us.
It involved one of us calling for a mass claim, then his partner disagreeing, then one of them voting for the other and asking if there was a cop out there to come forward if he shouldn't vote, all the while if the cop had a guilty verdict on one of them the whole thing falls apart.
Am rambling. Just jmo ( and everyone else) please discount me and flay as partners. One of us is scum, I know who it is, you all just need to see the posts and agree with me.

[DeasVail]

Vote Count 3.04

Mr. Flay (1)- geraintm

Not Voting: The-Duck, Number_0ne, jmo16mla, Mr. Flay

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline

19th November 4pm AEDT. This is in (expired on 2013-11-19 01:00:00)

[Mr. Flay]

I mean, damn. You like, share site control.. But this isn't an argue about that.

Flay, have you ever played in a newbie game where scum had day talk?

Administrative status has zero to do with this game. All of that is left at the door. And while yes, I could have looked at the first page, I was on my phone when I posted earlier. My last Newbie Game was marred by some unorthodox role interactions (RB-JK priority was jacked up), so I don't take anything for granted without asking the mod. Now it's answered, so fine. It's not part of the official Newbie Game that that they don't have daytalk, though it *would* be very unorthodox. I've also seen Newbie Games over the last 9 years where the Doctor could self-protect, or the Townies got individual role names, so forgive me for being a little skeptical...

I will agree with 501; scum had no need for an elaborate bussing gambit today. Paranoia leaves open the possibility, but me and geraintm/FB being scumbuddies doesn't really make any sense given the antagonism and attacks. Me+jmo would make more, or even me+Duck I suppose.

geraintm, try to keep up. Number_0ne claimed VT in 496, so jmo is confirmed as his role (unless he's . I'd like to see if he has any further results on live players, but for tonight I can safely VOTE: geraintm - I'll examine the other two tomorrow to see who a likely buddy is. First pass leans toward The-Duck because I don't see 188 from Number_0ne coming as a bus after the D1 mislynch. The-Duck is also the one who came out of the gate after me for the D1 mislynch (while voting for jmo, no less). 211 is a sideways defense of Fart Bane, and 288 would REALLY prefer notsci be the lynch over FB. But when push comes to shove, in 406 The-Duck lists geraintm(FB) top on his suspicious list. I don't like it. Number_0ne does too, but he's been more active about suspecting FB and not deflecting... and really, we can worry about that tomorrow. Today is either going to be me or geraintm.

[geraintm]

Flay's post

1st paragraph is attempts at confusion. I repeat from earlier, only scum would be thinking about scum day takk

2nd meh

3rd - disappointed he hasnt tried to make any case against me and is instead tryingy to confuse people about the next day. Amd as he is scum, all his thoughtsare worthless.

[The-Duck]

I find this really hard, I've been waffling about FB's alignment.. Some things look like genuine newbie mistakes, while a few posts later he can make a post that reads quite scummy. As for Geraintm, his case on flay feels forced/tunneled, almost as if he feels they need to make a big play because he and his scumbuddy (which would be Number in this scenario) are the two people that are called most scummy. On top of that in his read of the game he gave Number some townie points, but doesn't address him at all after that. For some reason he wants my opinion before voting flay, and not Numbers. Could be because he already knows Numbers opinion and just needs a third person to vote, and I've had my doubts about flay a couple of times.

Flay has had some scummy moments this game, mostly the blunder day1. He misrepresented me in 201, but other then that, his D2 play is good. The only connection I can find with flay is Jmo, which is a confirmed townie. As for day3, the mass claim still sounds logical to me, especially if we would have done it the way he proposed to do it (in order of most scummy to most town) to get a possible fake claim and in that way, increase our odds to 50/50 instead of 2/5. I don't like his calling me out because of inaction, while I've away every week form Friday to Sunday, with very sporadic posting.

What I don't like the most out of this whole situation is that you both are quick to dismiss the possibility of you two bussing eachother. When you started the bus, you knew there was no cop, only a tracker. If either of you got caught making a NK, the other still would get town points for trying to get scum lynched, and since the tracker gets killed after that, you are in 3player Lylo with one scum who is getting quite a lot of townpoints for the correct lynch. Seems like a sure way to victory. this gambit also removes the risks involved in building a case on a townie and trying to get another townie to vote with you. Seems like enough upsides to no downsides (except for the possibility of a flawless victory as scum) to try it..

All in all, I'm more sure of Geraintm being scum, because there are good reasons to believe he's scum with Number, or with Flay, while I can only see flay being scum with Geraintm.
VOTE: Geraintm

[geraintm]

If duck is town then the game is over.
Quick post

Sorry dismissing us both being scum. Priblem is I know I am not.scum so I know I am not bussing him

When I started my case against flay, I had no idea of the role, if it was tracker or cop.

Sorry for not looking at anyone elae besides flay right now. Finsing the second scum waits till tomorrow.

In my read of the game, I spotted flay as scum and said I thought jmo was likwly his partner. Jmo was too close. That has turned our to be because jmo half cleaeed flay.

[geraintm]

Duck, I would say you need to present evidence I am scum partner with number 1, but either you are town and we are about to lose, or you are scum and wont be able to find the evidence

[geraintm]

I hope number 1 turns up now before jmo. If he does and he is town, then he knows duck making him scum means he has to vote flay.
If jmo is the next to arrive, he has to think if he believes a number 1 me team as scum is more likely than one involving flay

And I cant type for toffee on my phone with a 3 year old on my lap

[geraintm]

Oh, by the way all, duck was also, like flay, in favourdof the mass claim

[The-Duck]

If you are not scum with Number, why would you only want my opinion on flay before voting him?
I say that has to be because you needed another townie on your wagon of flay, and Jmo already stated that his "lynching the fuck out of flay tomorrow" was to keep them both alive.

After you asked for my opinion before flay, I responded with stating that I wanted you to not vote and expand on your case. You did the opposite, you voted and ignored my request. My best guess is, that you have no real case, only flay's cautiousness after D1.
If you find that so scummy, please go find some (recent) scumgames from flay in which he exhibits this same behaviour, and if possible, some recent towngames where he doesn't.

[geraintm]

Quick post. Jmo and numbrr 1.

Please done vote till the other one also posts in the thread. If it ends up nunber 1 is town, tehn you ahould both wait rill the other posts and doesnt vote.
If you both dont hammer, then you are both confirmed townies and you 2 have to work out which out of me duck and flay is the other town.

[jmo16mla]

Hey duck, unvote.

[jmo16mla]

THIS IS ME TELLING YOU TO VOTING, LIKE YOU ASKED ME TO DO AT DAY BREAK.

You didn't even let number 1 post his thoughts. After he said he would. Wtf.

[The-Duck]

just because you ask nicely
UNVOTE: Geraintm

By the way Geraintm, it wouldn't have confirmed Number to be town if I had let my vote stay and he didn't hammer.All that would indicate is that you and him are of the same alignment, he becomes confirmed town for you, not for Jmo, Flay or me.

[Number_0ne]

Sorry I haven't been participating much. I might even end up replacing out, but hopefully not.

I don't think that scum would go and try to bus each other to start. However, scum does get lynched, I'd find it likely that the hammer could be scum bussing.

As for scum day talk, the sample role PMs specifically state that it's night chat only. I think it was just more of town not thinking things through. Scum couldn't be unsure about daytalk, and even if they were, why would they wait until day 3 to ask about it?

@the duck

I can't see Geraintm being scum with Flay. If that was the case, why would they need to make a big play today? Flay was most town on both of our lists.

And my not hammering means nothing about my alignment.

@Geraintm

Present evidence? This is mafia. Unless you're a PR you won't get evidence. Him not having evidence isn't indicative of his alignment.

And what was wrong with a mass claim? It increases our odds of getting through today. Hiding the PR isn't any useful if it doesn't get to the night.

Massclaiming in that case only hurts scum.

@jmo

Do you believe that Geraintm is scum?

[The-Duck]

I said it was probable that this was a try to make a big play if you are scum with Geraintm, not when he is scumbuddies with flay.
As for the situation in which Flay and Geraintm are scumbuddies, lets assume we lynch Geraintm today and he flips scum, would you even consider voting flay over me?
If they didn't bus and we lynch scum today, its just going to be 3 unconfirmed townies, of which 1 is considered slightly more townie, instead of A LOT more town..
I really don't see why scum wouldn't want to run this gambit, as it seemed likely that we were going to lynch Geraintm.

[Mr. Flay]

What I don't like the most out of this whole situation is that you both are quick to dismiss the possibility of you two bussing eachother.

I hate this current attitude about bussing. Why would we (as a hypothetical scumteam) set up a gambit that is almost guaranteed to lose ONE of us, so that TOMORROW the other might survive a 3p lylo? If we (as a hypothetical scumteam) could just get someone else lynched today, bam, game over. So yes, while it's possible, it's a very miniscule chance and requires a ton of things to go right for a very small gain, if any. AND that plan would have required us (as a hypothetical scumteam) to already know that Mindgamer was the Doctor and that we were in Column C. A two-Goon team without a flipped PR only knows they're not in Row 2 or Column A. We might have been facing a Cop, which would blow things straight to hell.

On top of that in his read of the game he gave Number some townie points, but doesn't address him at all after that. For some reason he wants my opinion before voting flay, and not Numbers. Could be because he already knows Numbers opinion and just needs a third person to vote, and I've had my doubts about flay a couple of times.

This is a good post.

If you are not scum with Number, why would you only want my opinion on flay before voting him?
I say that has to be because you needed another townie on your wagon of flay, and Jmo already stated that his "lynching the fuck out of flay tomorrow" was to keep them both alive.

This is a better one, and indeed makes me reconsider my scumpair, though not 100% (it could also be Duck-Number, but we're already pretty screwed if that's true). I fully believe scumgeraintm could come out of the gate with a vote against Flay, believing he could count on jmo's vote to quickly follow it up for the needed Townie component. 447 in particular is instructive. The claim backfired on him, but now he's committed to trying to lynch the person that came out Condorcet champion.

Spoiler: Showing my work

Code: Select all

Duck > Flay > jmo > Number > geraintm #Duck's ballot
Number > Flay > Duck > jmo > geraintm #Number's ballot
Flay > jmo > Duck > geraintm = Number #Flay's ballot
jmo > Flay > Duck = geraintm = Number #jmo's ballot
geraintm > jmo = Flay > Number = Duck #geraintm's ballot

http://www.cs.wustl.edu/~legrand/rbvote/calc.html

The candidates’ Dodgson scores:

• Flay = 0
  
• jmo = 2
  
• The-Duck = 4
  
• Number_0ne = 7
  
• geraintm = 9

It's not like it was CLOSE. You didn't win a single pairing. I didn't lose a single pairing. You didn't want the Town PR to come to light. Your predecessor was a scummy lurker. You came in and posted a page full of crap that ONLY really addressed me, as if you had already chosen who your lynch candidate for the day was going to be. You thought you had a lock on the game, and you guessed wrong, especially since your built 'case' paired me with jmo who is not conftown. So who is my buddy now, geraintm?

The rest of my case, in bullet points, since you asked SO nicely.

1. FB came in buttering me up with his awe and wonder.
   
2. FB specifically didn't want to lynch lurkers. Also his "In the last (first) game I played as, I played as town. As for this I cannot give away my role so I'll just have to see." in that post is hilarious if he is scum.
   
3. FB was nervous about a 'plan' coming out of notsci and zakk, both of whom we now know were town. Worried about PRs, maybe?
   
4. "Perhaps I could post some reads if you guys like." I'll just leave this here.
   
5. Was silent for three days and came back about an HOUR after the accidental hammer. I believe he was watching the thread.
   
6. This one's weak, but I find it telling that he calls out Mindgamer and Duck for replacement for lurking, but not Number_0ne who hadn't posted almost as long (about 6 hours after the other two). Obviously this only works if I'm right about Number being his partner.
   
7. "So as scummy as this looks I'm going to have to replace out." This just as the dying notsci fingered FB as part of a scumteam, and Number_0ne had just unvoted FB when his wagon started to draw steam compared to the notsci wagon.
   Scummy. As. Fuck.
   
   
8. geraintm arrives with a scum suspect in hand (me, presumably), but a) doesn't name them and b) doesn't post a case focused on any one person.
   
9. Horrible logic about "the PR shouldn't come out today, they'll be more useful tomorrow!" Bonus points for "I hope people don’t think of me as scum." and then goes on to explain why scum would never replace out when they are in a winning position, which is a) wrong and b) WIFOM.
   
10. Coaching his partner not to fakeclaim? I think yes.
    
11. A lot of casebuilding of a jmo/Flay scumteam.... somebody didn't read for content if they thought THIS was going to be the easy lynch.
    
12. Again, geraintm doesn't like the way jmo interacts with me, but now in retrospect I hope even he can admit that it makes sense for a Tracker with a clear to act that way.
    
13. 447, already mentioned. I think he expected jmo to go with him on a Flay lynch....yet he thinks the scumteam is jmo and I? That makes ZERO sense unless geraintm already knows that jmo/Flay aren't scum!
    
14. geraintm votes after Duck posts. As mentioned before by others, why not wait for Number_0ne too?
    
15. After jmo's claim and clear, his case starts to fall apart, so he switches to a straight tunnel on me. If he gets a mislynch, he can still win this gamble.
    
16. "If Duck is Town then game is over" - this after Duck's second vote. Whee distraction!

Vote stands. If you're Town, your behavior today has lost the game. But I firmly believe you are scum.

[geraintm]

If you are not scum with Number, why would you only want my opinion on flay before voting him?
I say that has to be because you needed another townie on your wagon of flay, and Jmo already stated that his "lynching the fuck out of flay tomorrow" was to keep them both alive.

After you asked for my opinion before flay, I responded with stating that I wanted you to not vote and expand on your case. You did the opposite, you voted and ignored my request. My best guess is, that you have no real case, only flay's cautiousness after D1.
If you find that so scummy, please go find some (recent) scumgames from flay in which he exhibits this same behaviour, and if possible, some recent towngames where he doesn't.

Do you mean post 452, where I am waiting for your opinion on flay? I was no longer waiting for number 1 as he had posted in 449.

I had already made my case, I specifically sat there and asked everyone to post and tell me if there was a good reason I should not vote for flay. This was me very bluntly saying I have no power role and wanted a cop to come forward if they had an innocent on flay. As all of jmo, number 1 and yourself had posted and not claimed an innocent hit on fly, this was my permission to go ahead.

[geraintm]

just because you ask nicely
UNVOTE: Geraintm

By the way Geraintm, it wouldn't have confirmed Number to be town if I had let my vote stay and he didn't hammer.All that would indicate is that you and him are of the same alignment, he becomes confirmed town for you, not for Jmo, Flay or me.

You forget I know I am town, so if he is the same as me, that makes him town too

[geraintm]

Sorry I haven't been participating much. I might even end up replacing out, but hopefully not.

I don't think that scum would go and try to bus each other to start. However, scum does get lynched, I'd find it likely that the hammer could be scum bussing.

As for scum day talk, the sample role PMs specifically state that it's night chat only. I think it was just more of town not thinking things through. Scum couldn't be unsure about daytalk, and even if they were, why would they wait until day 3 to ask about it?

@the duck

I can't see Geraintm being scum with Flay. If that was the case, why would they need to make a big play today? Flay was most town on both of our lists.

And my not hammering means nothing about my alignment.

@Geraintm

Present evidence? This is mafia. Unless you're a PR you won't get evidence. Him not having evidence isn't indicative of his alignment.

And what was wrong with a mass claim? It increases our odds of getting through today. Hiding the PR isn't any useful if it doesn't get to the night.

Massclaiming in that case only hurts scum.

@jmo

Do you believe that Geraintm is scum?

Glad you agree that me and flay being buddies is by far the most unlikely scenario going.

Evidence- I don't have any evidence. I am not a power role.
What I did was replace into this game and spend a long night reading and rereading. I got a massive scummy vibe from flay. Like the most serious one in a game I've been in, and if you go read my summaries from my other games you'll see me admit I am normally bad at scum hunting.
I also picked up that jmo had strong links to flay. I am quiet proud I picked this up, I thought it was scum buddies but instead it was a tracker getting a null result.

Why I said I didn't want a mass claim.
Because all it takes is a counterclaim and town has to try and pick which is right, so that is a 50/50 and I thought, considering how bad town has been in this game at spotting scum, we weren't going to get that right.
What I hoped would happen was that there was a hidden power role who would know some people being innocent. Then, if a wagon formed on someone they knew to be innocent, they could claim at a better time. But best of all, we would vote mafia today without the role having to come forward and they could use their role again tonight.
With the mass claim, I would like to point out to people that it was flay who brought it up. People who think I am scum need to think why I as scum would be so against everyone claiming.

[jmo16mla]

So, number one and the duck arent scum together. cool.

[Mr. Flay]

People who think I am scum need to think why I as scum would be so against everyone claiming.

You're not reading - it's to avoid what happened with clearing people!

[jmo16mla]

possible scum teams.

Flay-Ger
Flay-number 0ne
Flay-theduck

Ger-number0ne
Ger-theduck
Ger-flay

Number0ne-Flay
Number0ne-Ger

Theduck-flay
Theduck-Ger

WOO

[geraintm]

So, number one and the duck arent scum together. cool.

No, they werent . Only One of me or flay is scum (discounting the highly, highly improbable me and flay are both scum). There is no way neither of us are both town. If that was the case, whilst I was voting for flay and flay voting for me, they just both vote for one of us and win.

Jmo, you are going to have to work out which one of me and flay is scum, and then tomorrow the three people left are going to have to decide who out of duck and number 1 is scum.

( I put that scenario forward btw, because if we get to the next day and flay is dead, they will nightkill you and leave me duck and number 1 alive)