Micro 252: There Is No Doctor - END

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Will read after work. Skimmed quickly and surprised some people didnt test their ability on LS. Anyone who didnt is suspect in my book.

Sangres, who the heck is jacob??

[The Purple Rose]

it looks very much like tpr and tbone are scum together, doens't it? i think i disagree.

she is liking him because he's pandering to her preferred lynch.

when bulb was doing it, she did the same thing. i don't think it's as associative as you think.

i would much prefer to lynch tbone. besides, tpr seems to have really good cognitive skills and if she is town she is useful.

p-edit: i'm not planning on voting bulb today.

It's the other way around. I followed his predecessor. Chaosomega caught the tell, disappeared later. I think it was really good scumhunting (which is why I pushed that point when he left) and I think I posted then that I thought chaosomega was town. I haven't had a good reason to doubt that read with his replacement, t-bone.

As for bulb, he was a bit the guy that caught me when I fell, I admit. If he's clever scum, he could have abused my situation there and I'm probably not very immune to buddying. But the case as it's presented now is not a good one.

Did his push on etl not freak you out a bit? You certainly seem to be town reading her based on how you're talking to her at the moment.

People can be mistaken. Only etl can claim at this point that she was right about her push after those last two deaths. I see no problems reading both of them as town.

@ Purple Rose, you went after Pitoli with a bunk tell that was a huge stretch. I defend townreads pretty strongly and I am doing it even more so in this game. Your speculation on TIP's result only makes sense if you assume that once a cop claims a guilty, the guiltied player won't cc leading to a whole bunch of cc's. TIP could potentially be insane or paranoid.

I already explained why I seriously doubt there to be an insane or a paranoid cop. It's unnecessarily complicating a spiced up setup that is rather balanced. It's also a complication that's hard to justify in a micro setup, from a mod which I trust to make games that work. The proposed setup works very well. It takes rather weird assumptions (the mod allowing town to get to lylo after a day one lynch and a fake guilty d2, basically without a good game having been played) to make TIP anywhere close to believable. I think TIP simply blundered with a silly fakeclaim.

There's a difference between strongly defending and explaining people's actions. The last implies you know the person is town. I don't like it very much.

Also, I read your question last time and chose to ignore it. I don't feel like it should make any difference to you what gender I am, and I don't know if I enjoy your interest in it.

[The Purple Rose]

Will read after work. Skimmed quickly and surprised some people didnt test their ability on LS. Anyone who didnt is suspect in my book.

Sangres, who the heck is jacob??

Suspect me then, please. I threw an investigation at sangres (for the form, I posted in the pm to bbmolla). I don't think it's a clear choice to test it in a game that is as short as this one. Suppose in a game with sanities, with a investigation on someone you don't know, you get information, you don't know how to interpret it yet. That might happen in lylo, comparable to the logic puzzle that dethy is. Basically, it's the difference between one absolute result and two half results.

But that's all theory, and I don't know how useful that is to the current discussion.

With the flip of pitoli, do you agree with the setup discussion I posted? I'm rather happy with it, esspecially as some of it originated before the flip actually happened.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I already explained why I seriously doubt there to be an insane or a paranoid cop. It's unnecessarily complicating a spiced up setup that is rather balanced. It's also a complication that's hard to justify in a micro setup, from a mod which I trust to make games that work. The proposed setup works very well. It takes rather weird assumptions (the mod allowing town to get to lylo after a day one lynch and a fake guilty d2, basically without a good game having been played) to make TIP anywhere close to believable. I think TIP simply blundered with a silly fakeclaim.

But a fake guilty won't lead to a mislynch in the setup at all.

There's a difference between strongly defending and explaining people's actions. The last implies you know the person is town. I don't like it very much.

If I think that a person is town, and unable to defend themselves, I will explain their actions. It is actually your attack that I am concerned about. While town can be wrong, it takes a very stubborn individual to claim that the people who were right were only right because they knew that someone was town.

Also, I read your question last time and chose to ignore it. I don't feel like it should make any difference to you what gender I am, and I don't know if I enjoy your interest in it.

I don't want to keep referring to you as he/she.

[The Purple Rose]

I already explained why I seriously doubt there to be an insane or a paranoid cop. It's unnecessarily complicating a spiced up setup that is rather balanced. It's also a complication that's hard to justify in a micro setup, from a mod which I trust to make games that work. The proposed setup works very well. It takes rather weird assumptions (the mod allowing town to get to lylo after a day one lynch and a fake guilty d2, basically without a good game having been played) to make TIP anywhere close to believable. I think TIP simply blundered with a silly fakeclaim.

But a fake guilty won't lead to a mislynch in the setup at all.

Because we massclaimed so early. We figured out more things early on then the mod might have forseen. Regardless, there's no good reason to put insane investigations into this game.

Also, suppose he did. Would he put only one in? It really takes a lot of assumptions that the mod is specifically trying to mess with us (and I think he's a nice guy, so why be so mean to him?), to make tip's investigation believable here.

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p5461512]

Also, I read your question last time and chose to ignore it. I don't feel like it should make any difference to you what gender I am, and I don't know if I enjoy your interest in it.

I don't want to keep referring to you as he/she.

Pick your favorite. I promise I won't be offended

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Because we massclaimed so early. We figured out more things early on then the mod might have forseen. Regardless, there's no good reason to put insane investigations into this game.

Also, suppose he did. Would he put only one in? It really takes a lot of assumptions that the mod is specifically trying to mess with us (and I think he's a nice guy, so why be so mean to him?), to make tip's investigation believable here.

Think about what happens if we did not massclaim and a paranoid/insane cop outs a guilty on another player: The tareted player will cc. The other players who know that they too are cops will realize what the setup is and out themselves as well. I can't see a likely scenario where an investigation would lead to a mislynch. Give me one.

Pick your favorite. I promise I won't be offended

Fair enough.

[TheIrishPope]

I didn't vote F-16 because I don't know my sanity
I don't understand why I'm scum
ETL, Nacho and ffery call me Jacob

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Nobody fucking lynch anyone based on cop investigations yet, please.

I am working on a table with the claims and results and other notes. Will post it later today so we can discuss things logically.

Regarding my comment earlier this morning, I thought about it, and it makes no sense one way or the other, to suspect anyone for investigating the IC or not investigating the IC. Just a bunch of WIFOM and TPR is right about a shor game here. I didnt take that into account and now I'm mad I didnt look at someone else.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I re-read TPR's entire post carefully and some of it actually makes sense. I get why you are saying that none of the cops are going to be useful - you have a theory that there are two werewolves in the game and that they have to contend with a seer, IC, and 5 named townies. I don't discount this. In fact it is quite plausible. I am just not convinced that it is necessarily the case because the alternative (flavored cops) is just as likely. I disagree that it gives a free mislynch as I said above and I'd like you to elaborate on that. You keep mentioning that we claimed earlier than the mod could have forseen but the latest time that the claims would out is upon a guilty result. Unless you are saying that a cop would claim a guilty on a town player, the town player doesn't cc/the other cops don't cc and mislynch anyways. Why would they do that?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

that they have to contend with a seer,

This is the only reason I believe Pitoli was killed over LS. (Sorry if someone else already said this) Pitoli's death leads me to believe there

are

in fact werewolves in this game.

However, the cops are NOT completely useless, because a Town-aligned person is still town-aligned, and will give Not Guilty results to the cops. The only thing that would make them useless is if they also get Not Guilty results on werewolves. Someone should look at the wiki for this because I'm lazy and can't right now (work).

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

that they have to contend with a seer,

This is the only reason I believe Pitoli was killed over LS. (Sorry if someone else already said this) Pitoli's death leads me to believe there

are

in fact werewolves in this game.

However, the cops are NOT completely useless, because a Town-aligned person is still town-aligned, and will give Not Guilty results to the cops.

The only thing that would make them useless is if they also get Not Guilty results on werewolves.

Someone should look at the wiki for this because I'm lazy and can't right now (work).

If the theory is true, that is pretty much how I believe it will work. What is the point of having a "seer" if the cops are just as useful as the seer?

[TheIrishPope]

Regarding the pitoli death, soooo much WIFOM. Maybe they wanted us to think we're useless as cops (if they aren't werewolves)
And regarding cops, that's why the Seer was invented; cops can only know if someone's mafia or not mafia, and werewolves are not mafia.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Regarding the pitoli death, soooo much WIFOM.

No. It's not. Pitoli was the only one who claimed to have "Seer" as her role.

We were expecting the IC to die. That makes sense. Why bother with the one person we all thought was useless? Unless they were the only person who

wasn't

useless.

It most certainly is not WIFOM when it makes fucking sense.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Claims and stuff

Player	Claim	Investigations	Results	Notes
Bulbazak	Town Cop	None	None	Lynched D1, Town Cop, Breadcrumb Suspected:
Pitoli	Town Seer	None	None	Died N1, Town Seer, no breadcrumb? Suspected:
ETL	Town Cop	N1: LS	N1: Not Guilty	Breadcrumb
LS	Mod-confirmed IC	N/A	N/A	None.
TPR	Town Cop	N1: Sangres	N1: ?? (Presumed Not Guilty based on conclusions in 1096.)	Breadcrumb?
TIP	Town Cop	N1: F16	N1: Guilty	Supposed breadcrumbs. Likely false result or fake.
F16	Town Cop	N1: LS	N1: Not Guilty	Breadcrumb
TBone	Town Cop	N1: Sangres	N1: Not Guilty	No breadcrumbs. Claims he ignored F16's CC, hammered Bulb D1. Slot pushed Pitoli all day long.
Sangres	Town Cop	N1: TIP	N1: Not Guilty	No Breadcrumb

Ok so this is what I have so far. There are some holes and other questions that could be filled in, such as Bulb and pitoli's list of suspects. Those should definitely be looked at and compare notes with LS. Uhmm.. can't think of anything else right at the moment. Saw TPR's response to TIP's "guilty". Damning indeed, TIP. I don't see scumTPR handling this the way she did. I need to think on this a bit and see if I can come up with any other scenarios, but my first gut reaction is definitely to vote TIP.

Also, other thoughts: F16's immediate CC and vote makes him town in my mind. There is the possibility that scum (or WWs, I guess), knowing the setup, would immediately CC the cop in an attempt to push the lynch through. However, I find that especially risky if they did not know everyone was a cop. If they did, then the CC is null. Gut tells me it was genuine. TBone's reaction, however, still gives me horrible vibes. I was happy to believe he was a town cop after that whole shenanigans, but the more I think about his excuse to not have read the p-edit posts before hammering a claimed cop who had been CC'd, since he claims he is also a cop and hammered

because

of that fact. Something wrong there.

Anyway I spent far too much time on this on the clock. Going back to work now.

[TheIrishPope]

Wow that bias.
OF COURSE PITOLI KILL IS WIFOMY

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Wow that bias.
OF COURSE PITOLI KILL IS WIFOMY

I'm not going to bother asking you to support your statement, because it will be bullshit, I'm pretty sure.

For others, why the pitoli kill is not WIFOM, again:

1) Pitoli was the only one to claim a werewolf-flavored investigative ability (Seer).

2) TPR's points on the setup and balance: 5 cops, 1 seer, 1 IC, 2 anti-town. Pretty clearly suggests these 2 anti-town are werewolves, with the cops being glorified VTs.

3) Options for NK: 7 options to choose from, 1 being mod-confirmed town, 5 cops who can detect mafia or not mafia, and 1 seer who can detect werewolf or not werewolf. Of these 7 options, if the anti-town roles were mafia-aligned, anyone BUT pitoli is a good choice. However, NONE of the other SIX were chosen, suggesting that 2 is correct.

4) This is more a case against TIP, but follows that his claim of "THIS IS ALL WIFOM" is an attempt to discredit any NK analysis, which has its place, and is certainly viable here.

TIP opens the day by claiming a guilty on F16, one of the more questioned reads on everyone's list.

Now, let's assume that 2 is false, and we actually have 2 scum.

Looking at N1 Cop investigations with results:

Not Guilty
LS x2 (ETL, F16)
Sangres x2 (TPR, TBone)
TIP x1 (Sangres)

Guilty
F16 x1 (TIP)

(Note: There can only be 4 cops - 5 cops with 1 confirmed cop dead - but we have 6 investigations)

If TPR is town or TBone is town:

Sangres is town, TIP is town.
F16 is scum.

So, 4 cops, with 2 scum, can basically ferret out the rest of the scum team tonight by Sangres, TIP, and me looking at TPR or TB, who, by this PoE, one of them MUST be scum, and it's game over. I don't think so.

So TIP is a werewolf. And he's our lynch for today.

VOTE: TIP

[T-Bone]

I really like #1096 from TPR. I hadn't thought of any of that, but it makes sense in retrospect. I didn't read too much into the set-up. ETL said at one point "the title should have been obvious there were multiple cops" but I was expecting something like a jailkeeper instead of a doctor or something. So again, being in my mind the only cop, Bulba claiming cop meant he had to be lynched. When Pitoli claimed Seer at the end of Day 1, I thought 'damn, he's actually scum then', but that was a true claim. In light of that choice of night kill I can agree with TPR that Werwolves are the scum faction, and the Cops are glorified VTs. Otherwise LS would have been killed and we'd be wondering about our sanities today.

that they have to contend with a seer,

This is the only reason I believe Pitoli was killed over LS. (Sorry if someone else already said this) Pitoli's death leads me to believe there

are

in fact werewolves in this game.

However, the cops are NOT completely useless, because a Town-aligned person is still town-aligned, and will give Not Guilty results to the cops. The only thing that would make them useless is if they also get Not Guilty results on werewolves. Someone should look at the wiki for this because I'm lazy and can't right now (work).

The existence of the Seer pretty much confirms that if there are werewolves, they will be Not Guilty to Cops. Cops are investigating whether another player is guilty of being mafia or not.

If we subscribe that the existence of the Seer points to Werewolves, then TIP's claim is lie, unless the mafia also having a Framer running amok, or some other shenanigans we don't know about.

This just occurred to me, but TIP faking a guilty result is weird to me. If the scum faction is Werewolves, and they know everyone is a cop who can't get gulties on them, why does scumTIP claim to have a guilty?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Doesnt matter. The evidence points to TIP being a werewolf more than F16 being mafia.

[Lastsurvivor]

Oh I'm not dead (probably because I was dead wrong yesterday).

Reading.

[T-Bone]

Oh no, I'm not suggesting that F-16 is mafia because of it, I'm suggesting it's a really weird scumplay, and we don't have enough players to just go with it with minimal discussion. I'd vote TIP if he didn't already have two votes on him, I don't want to bring him to L-1 when the day just started.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

That's fine. I dont expect you to do that. I'm just curious why you would bring that up when it neither clarifies or counters the case against TIP or F16.

[Lastsurvivor]

Or because Pitoli claimed seer and it's all werewolves. I support that theory.

But why are we discounting the idea of paranoid/insane cops (in terms of the TiP fakeclaim)? Just because it'd complicate the setup? That's something I support, but then I'm wondering why there's an IC (unless I'm just a red herring???)

[T-Bone]

Because I have a concern about it and that's why I bring it up.

Preedit: Basically what LS said

[The Purple Rose]

Oh no, I'm not suggesting that F-16 is mafia because of it, I'm suggesting it's a really weird scumplay, and we don't have enough players to just go with it with minimal discussion. I'd vote TIP if he didn't already have two votes on him, I don't want to bring him to L-1 when the day just started.

I agree. I also don't mind if I get a little time today anyway, I feel like rereading what happened yesterday. We are in the cool position that we know both competing wagons for the lynch day one, and it might be an idea to take a second look at the first wagon on TIP with recent events in mind.

The thing with the strategy behind TIP's claim is indeed hard to figure out. The only thing I can think of is that he didn't think how everybody would respond if he posted a guilty. That it's a quirky fakeclaim in the way of "lets see how long we can fool around". What tips me in favor of this is his discussion without ETL just now. Pointing to wifom around the pitoli lynch has nothing to do with it. It feels like cop-out panic defense if nothing else. I don't like it a bit.

The other reason could be that scum indeed have a framer. A werewolf framer is a curious idea, I admit. They'd target F-16. You (or etl, I'm making a quick post here), already mentioned that it's a bit typical that F-16 is the person that is the guilty result. On the other hand, for me at least it's also typical it has to be TIP that gets the guilty. Say it would've been sangres, I wouldn't have given it a thought that it would have been a fakeclaim. It doesn't fit with their playstyle that could very well be considered cautious.

tl;dr: I don't mind if this day gets drawn out.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Say it would've been sangres, I wouldn't have given it a thought that it would have been a fakeclaim.

I would have. Meta can be used pretty effectively but only to support a case, not to make one, imo. Though, given their meta, I agree it's not something they would do, so speculating what would be done if they did.. is odd. Not on you, odd thought for me. I'm not sure. I still think I'd have been like "wtf..."

tl;dr: I don't mind if this day gets drawn out.

Agreed.