Micro 252: There Is No Doctor - END

[T-Bone]

So again. If TIP is scum who knows the set-up (as TPR proposes it), why does he make this play?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

A few reasons, I would think:

1) He didn't know the entire setup; only parts, allowing him to believe he could fake claim safely. (very likely)
2) He didn't think we'd figure out why Pitoli was killed (hence the WIFOM argument coming from him). (very likely)
3) He's not playing very intelligently. (possible if he's not paying attention to the game too much)
4) My scenario from the end of my vote post, where F16 is actually scum. (very unlikely)

There is actually another option, that I had proposed yesterday, which is that there is 1 scum and 1 werewolf, but given the setup and number of cops, this also seems unlikely.

[The Purple Rose]

So again. If TIP is scum who knows the set-up (as TPR proposes it), why does he make this play?

I tried to make a guess that it was TIP fooling around as scum.

On the other hand, if tip is a townie who gets accused like this, would he point to pitoli's nightkill and scream WIFOM!? It feels very survivalist, it feels like someone caught rather then someone pissed people don't believe he's honest.

And hey, it's not as if I would mind he was right. I've been annoyed by f-16 for little over a day and he's been pinging my scumdar throughout the entire late part of day one.

A few reasons, I would think:

1) He didn't know the entire setup; only parts, allowing him to believe he could fake claim safely. (very likely)
2) He didn't think we'd figure out why Pitoli was killed (hence the WIFOM argument coming from him). (very likely)
3) He's not playing very intelligently. (possible if he's not paying attention to the game too much)
4) My scenario from the end of my vote post, where F16 is actually scum. (very unlikely)

There is actually another option, that I had proposed yesterday, which is that there is 1 scum and 1 werewolf, but given the setup and number of cops, this also seems unlikely.

1's given to be wrong by the mod.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Are they aware of the entire setup though?

[The Purple Rose]

Good point. It wasn't stated as such in the mods post. Just a general thing that they have info about the setup. Given what we know now, that means they needed to know that the default role isn't VT, but cop.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

That still doesn't account for why we can rule out flavor cops.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

What do you mean, F16? Flavor cops?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I re-read TPR's entire post carefully and some of it actually makes sense. I get why you are saying that none of the cops are going to be useful - you have a theory that there are two werewolves in the game and that they have to contend with a seer, IC, and 5 named townies. I don't discount this. In fact it is quite plausible. I am just not convinced that it is necessarily the case because the alternative (flavored cops) is just as likely. I disagree that it gives a free mislynch as I said above and I'd like you to elaborate on that. You keep mentioning that we claimed earlier than the mod could have forseen but the latest time that the claims would out is upon a guilty result. Unless you are saying that a cop would claim a guilty on a town player, the town player doesn't cc/the other cops don't cc and mislynch anyways. Why would they do that?

Or because Pitoli claimed seer and it's all werewolves. I support that theory.

But why are we discounting the idea of paranoid/insane cops

(in terms of the TiP fakeclaim)? Just because it'd complicate the setup? That's something I support, but then I'm wondering why there's an IC (unless I'm just a red herring???)

[T-Bone]

I think he means multiple sanities. Which I agree, just because werewolves do or don't exist doesn't mean we all can't have different sanities in addition to fuck with us.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

It makes no sense in the setup when, if there are werewolves, we are already useless anyway.

[T-Bone]

Just going to throw this out there.

Player - Role - Sanities Possible

Bubla - Cop - All
Pitoli - Seer - N/A
LS - IC - N/A
ETL - Cop - Naive, Sane
TPR - Cop - Sane, Insane, Naive
TIP - Cop - Sane, Insane, Paranoid
F16 - Cop - Naive, Sane
Sangres - Cop - Sane, Insane, Naive
Bone - Cop - Sane, Insane, Naive

It only makes sense if the Mod wants to fuck with us some more I guess. But I think it's unlikely.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

That's true. The alternative is there could be two mafia and a lone werewolf with a kill (and flavored cops), or there could be just mafia and the "seer" is a red herring. The second one is inelegant though.

I think TIP is probably scum based on meta but I am not sure. I know I am town and LS is town. I have a strong townread on you. That leaves two scum among {TPR, T-Bone, Sangres, TIP}
I am really not sure who it could be. I could see scenarios where any of them are scum. TPR's self-righteousness after Pitoli's flip also rubs me the wrong way. I'd expect town to be more apologetic/admit they were wrong after such a strong push. But then, some of TPR's posts also look townish, especially the pro-activeness. Sangres could go either way. I don't like the "the hell you are" reaction to Bulb's claim and some of Bulb's points against them, yet I could see them being town as well. T-Bone, I don't like him hammering a cc'd cop, yet again there are things that make me believe town. TIP is the one who I think is scum based on meta anyways so I am thinking it is him - I don't agree with the logic by which he is being lynched though.

[T-Bone]

'....I don't agree with the logic by which he is being lynched though"

You don't think he's faking a guilty result on you? Does that make you guilty then in a scenario that he's telling the truth?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

No, that would make him paranoid or insane in the scenario that he is telling the truth.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

The alternative is there could be two mafia and a lone werewolf with a kill (and flavored cops),

If there was scum, someone else would have died. No way they would both target pitoli.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

The alternative is there could be two mafia and a lone werewolf with a kill (and flavored cops),

If there was scum, someone else would have died. No way they would both target pitoli.

Assuming that the two mafia don't have a kill and only the lone werewolf does. It is only fair that the larger faction don't have a nightkill. I think someone mentioned that such a setup existed - or at least, it is plausible.

[T-Bone]

Sometimes the simplest solution is the correct one. Cops being glorified VTs with a Seer and Werewolves makes the most sense. It's certainly the assumption I'm going to run under.

So F-16. ScumTIP claims a guilty on you knowing all this. Why do you think?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Sometimes the simplest solution is the correct one. Cops being glorified VTs with a Seer and Werewolves makes the most sense. It's certainly the assumption I'm going to run under.

While it is a reasonable assumption, it is not the only possibility or even necessarily the most likely possibility.

So F-16. ScumTIP claims a guilty on you knowing all this. Why do you think?

There was a lot of talk about flavor cops in twilight. He could have thought that a) Most likely I won't be lynched because people might assume he has a flavor b) In the event that I am lynched, awesome for scum - he gets to 5P LYLO and can argue that he is a flavor cop which might get him lynched but is not a guarantee. It is possible for one townie to suspect another more and vote them which gets him a win. Even if he does get lynched, that's 3P LYLO.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I want to hear ffery's opinion about it.

[The Purple Rose]

That still doesn't account for why we can rule out flavor cops.

Why do you keep asking the same question without reacting to why the answer bothers you. I've given a couple of arguments now.

As for apologizing to pitoli, I planned to do that post game. She can't reply now, so it would be a bit empty. And I want her to know I do mean it, I was perhaps a bit persistent and I know it wouldn't be fun to be in her position.


And you keep being amazingly annoying. Post 1142 really gets me. That's such a destructive post and it's hardly the first example. "while it is a reasonable assumption, it is not the only possibility or even necessarily the most likely possibility", while bringing no other possibility or showing why such a possibility would be equally or more likely. All you attempt to do is argue against a possibility without showing how or why. It's an empty "NJET". Purely destructive playing, purely aimed at being against a theory without actually participating in a discussion. It's beyond useless. How is saying: "no", while providing no way to discuss your stance ever going to help any scumhunting?

[The Purple Rose]

I'm sorry, I think I'm letting annoyance get the better of me and I don't know if it was worth three lines. The example is just not playing the game and I wished you did.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I just made an angry post telling you your annoyance is rubbish but I saw you Pedit. Let's do this calmly.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you perhaps missed 1105 and 1108 which addresses your point and quote it for you again:

Because we massclaimed so early. We figured out more things early on then the mod might have forseen. Regardless, there's no good reason to put insane investigations into this game.

Also, suppose he did. Would he put only one in? It really takes a lot of assumptions that the mod is specifically trying to mess with us (and I think he's a nice guy, so why be so mean to him?), to make tip's investigation believable here.

Think about what happens if we did not massclaim and a paranoid/insane cop outs a guilty on another player: The tareted player will cc. The other players who know that they too are cops will realize what the setup is and out themselves as well. I can't see a likely scenario where an investigation would lead to a mislynch. Give me one.

I re-read TPR's entire post carefully and some of it actually makes sense. I get why you are saying that none of the cops are going to be useful - you have a theory that there are two werewolves in the game and that they have to contend with a seer, IC, and 5 named townies. I don't discount this. In fact it is quite plausible. I am just not convinced that it is necessarily the case because the alternative (flavored cops) is just as likely. I disagree that it gives a free mislynch as I said above and I'd like you to elaborate on that.

You keep mentioning that we claimed earlier than the mod could have forseen but the latest time that the claims would out is upon a guilty result. Unless you are saying that a cop would claim a guilty on a town player, the town player doesn't cc/the other cops don't cc and mislynch anyways. Why would they do that?

The bolded parts address your point. I am not sure why you never responded to them but I'll assume you missed them. Yes, I said nothing about any other possibilities in 1142 but that's because I had already mentioned them to no response from you.

[BBmolla]

Votecount 2.01

TheIrishPope - 2 - The Purple Rose, EspeciallyTheLies,

Not Voting: sangres, TheIrishPope, T-Bone, Lastsurvivor, F-16_Fighting_Falcon

Deadline: (expired on 2013-11-29 11:00:00)

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[T-Bone]

Wooo! I've been replaced out! SEE YA SUCKERS

[BBmolla]

Fixed, that's what I get for copying old votecounts.