A uPick of Ice & Fire - Day 12 - #REKT?

[Nautilius]

The mod did roles, then alignments.

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[Nautilius]

Naut, your theory violates Occam's Razor and assumes what you describe as horribly inoptimal play. When scum go off the reservation, the usual play is to bus and then keep the nightkill right?

not when they lost 2 scum members in 2 days and got approximately 0 kills off

[Titus]

I'm not understanding here. Occam's Razor is still Occum's Razor no. How is it different?

[Titus]

To me, it sounds like you think I'm scum for something OTHER than the role scenario and you're trying to make everything fit rather than looking at the obvious information in front of you.

[Nautilius]

I'm not understanding here. Occam's Razor is still Occum's Razor no. How is it different?

"When scum go off the reservation, scum bus."
Not when they lost a bunch of partners and nightkills already.

To me, it sounds like you think I'm scum for something OTHER than the role scenario and you're trying to make everything fit rather than looking at the obvious information in front of you.

I think you're scum for many reasons. The role scenario doesn't confirm you to me as town.

[Eddard Stark]

Day 5, Vc 10

PrideandJoy (7) -

kanyeknowsbest, Tammy, Cephrir, Benmage, The Alchemist, elleheathen, AGar

Garruk Relentless (3) -

Messiah Complex, SafetyDance, Titus

Titus (3) -

Goat on a Raft, Garuk Relentless, Nautilius

The Alchemist (1) -

ooba

Cephrir (1) -

PrideandJoy

Not voting (3) -

Alfred Borden, Shadoweh, Tierce

With 18 alive it takes 10 votes to lynch

• Deadline Date: 25th of Novemberat 10:00 EDT
  
• Deadline Countdown: (expired on 2013-11-25 10:00:00)
  

Prodding Goat on a Raft

[kanyeknowsbest]

i just cant wrap my mind around scum realclaiming that role and shredding their nk with this gamestate. it assumes such awful play and incompetence..

[Titus]

If scum have lost a lot of partners, all the more reason to bus a wild and crazy partner. There wouldn't be many opportunities to gain towncred left. Then, scums could lay low for awhile and let town lead mislynches.

Compare me with GR. He's coming up with "theories" that make no coherent sense as compared to you, who is just completely misapplying Occam's Razor and suffering from confirmation bias. Look at the soundness of people pushing for your particular lynch target. If their arguments are bad, the lynch itself may be bad. That is precisely why I post a lot and want people to pick apart my arguments with a fine tooth comb. He's acting in a manner designed to hammer home a mislynch.

You mentioned confirmed knowledge of my role being accurate. Skipping around the obvious, do you have anything solid along those lines to believe that PnJ or GR is town?

[ooba]

PnJ is town - stop voting him.

Vote: Garruk

- let's just say Messiah's conviction convinced me.

Spoiler: If Garruk flips scum

C: {SpyreX, Quadz, Garruk}
E: 2 of {Messiah Complex, SafetyDance, Titus}?

And even if I'm wrong about E\C and it's just C- Garruk still decent bet for SpyreX,Quadz scumbuddy

[kanyeknowsbest]

ooba whys pnj town?

[ooba]

ooba whys pnj town?

Vibe - his reactions\posting. The quadz thing yesterday didnt seem like scum-scum - I esp. don't see quadz scum acting like that.
Garruk's response to that interaction and calling it bussing also helps both current reads. (PnJ - town, Garruk - maybe scum)

[Goat on a Raft]

I don't understand why Titus isn't dead. KKB pls explain bb. I think he claimed that bullshit role and is now living on the apathy of town to not get lynched today~

[Goat on a Raft]

Lemme go see what CDB thinks of pnj

[Garruk Relentless]

Bah, fine. I see our wagon is avtually getting started. I'm out doing errands right now.

I'll explain why you won't lynch me when I get home.

SSK if you're online please just full claim for me.

[kanyeknowsbest]

I don't understand why Titus isn't dead. KKB pls explain bb. I think he claimed that bullshit role and is now living on the apathy of town to not get lynched today~

the amount scum have to willingly give up for titus to be scum

talk to me about this

scum lynch, no kill, possible scum lynch -> purposefully giving up their nightkill. that sequence of events leading up to them throwing away a nightkill is pretty far fetched imo. the biggest problem is that they are throwing away a nightkill to ~maaaybe~ save titus. why do that when he could fakeclaim something else, still maybe save himself, and keep their nightkill? you have to remember that weve been harping all game that role came before alignment and people have been treating even confirmable claims w. some trepidation (ie safedtydanzo), so theres zero guarantee that throwing away their nk saves titus.

[Goat on a Raft]

So um. Could Titus not have fakeclaimed his role, and then scum were like "Lol we're not giving up our kill cya later bro" then just not voted him today amongst all the apathy?

[Goat on a Raft]

We er both had pnj as "town?" so ehh?

[Cephrir]

So um. Could Titus not have fakeclaimed his role, and then scum were like "Lol we're not giving up our kill cya later bro" then just not voted him today amongst all the apathy?

Several players, including myself, have confirmed this didn't happen.

[kanyeknowsbest]

why are you assuming the town is filled w. apathy right now?

[Goat on a Raft]

Because I'm filled with apathy...:'(

Vote: PnJ

[kanyeknowsbest]

why? things are going pretty dang well for town?

[Garruk Relentless]

Unlike Nat, I'm not actually afraid of anything at this point seeing as all the votes on us are bullshit.

MC-They've had it out for us the

entire game

. Literally, all they've done is tunnel on us for one reason or another. No surprise that their vote is still on us.
SafetyDance- He was basically sheeping MC, if i recall correctly.
Titus- He for some reason thinks that we made up the theory in some act of anxious scumminess? Which makes no sense at all? Let alone is not enough for a serious vote on page 172 of a game.
Ooba- Ooba's also had it out for us a lot of the game. But he keeps flip-flopping. Like in his previous post he thought we were town. Now we're scum again. Why? Because MC. MC who has been tunneling us the entire time.

[Garruk Relentless]

-SSK

[Alfred Borden]

Forgive me if I'm retreading but:
Can we use the split doublevote to hammer 2 wagons at the same time?

[kanyeknowsbest]

Unlike Nat, I'm not actually afraid of anything at this point seeing as all the votes on us are bullshit.

MC-They've had it out for us the

entire game

. Literally, all they've done is tunnel on us for one reason or another. No surprise that their vote is still on us.
SafetyDance- He was basically sheeping MC, if i recall correctly.
Titus- He for some reason thinks that we made up the theory in some act of anxious scumminess? Which makes no sense at all? Let alone is not enough for a serious vote on page 172 of a game.
Ooba- Ooba's also had it out for us a lot of the game. But he keeps flip-flopping. Like in his previous post he thought we were town. Now we're scum again. Why? Because MC. MC who has been tunneling us the entire time.

why are you terrified of 3 votes?