Mini 1515: Touhou Imperishable Night (Game Over)

[ArcAngel9]

there is definite scum between Penguin and MAC or both can be scum too..
hang for my opinion these too.. And I need ZMuffin to speak more...

[Ghostly Penguin]

...so that day was annoyingly quick. Went to read the thread the next morning, got two pages in and figured BRO was the better lynch over AA9 if only because his power was claimed as used, noticed the thread was locked and checked the lynch.

Looking at your VCA, I tend to think zMuffin is more likely scum than Psychlone just because he sticks with the BRO wagon when there's more town credit to be gained in hindsight. Would Psychlone move from a scum buddy to hammer a townie like that?

I do think there's a scum off the wagon as well, rather than both of them being scum. That wagon just moved so fast, I expect minimum one scum dithered about it. I need to read over how the voting went down, but Mac looks like scum who tried to start something different and couldn't get momentum for it while being unable to jump back to bus his partner. The TNE-as-town arguments seem all right; I'm not 100% sold, but I need to calibrate with Ghostlin before voting anyways.

--PA

[zMuffinMan]

we should mass claim today

I'm assuming AA9 is town for now, even though she hasn't flipped

meh. i'm sorta paranoid about AA9 because the only thing she's really done so far is argue with BRO.

i was reading through yesterday and my first thought was that BRO doing what he did with AA9 was a really odd move if AA9 is town, unless he was hoping for a mislynch to happen. and if that's the case, then where was his backup? unless scum were absent during the day (e.g. GP, TNE and kinda mac since he didn't really post after the very beginning of the day), what do you think the point of BRO's 1v1 with AA9 was?

i wanna go back and do some reading but i noticed one wagon you left out is the varsoon wagon that happened (probably because bork wasn't around the time and it wasn't included in the votecounts)

[zMuffinMan]

@AA9,

did you do

any

reading last night?

[zMuffinMan]

[5] MafiaSSK (zMuffinMan, BROseidon, Psychlone, thezmon221, Morph the Cat)

if AA9 is town here, it wouldn't surprise me if there's no other scum on this wagon. i was kind of in agreement with mastin's analysis here that it's far more likely scum wanted to avoid this wagon like the plague and not dirty their hands.

[7] waynegg (pieguyn, Morph the Cat, Ghostly Penguin, thenewearth, BROseidon, Varsoon, Psychlone)

no way in hell this was a town-driven counter-wagon. if there's only one more scum here, it's likely one of GP and TNE. i really disliked the way both of them hopped onto this wagon.

who do you think bussed BRO? if no one, why do you think that's the case?

if AA9 is scum, then that answers this question. if she's town, then i dunno. the day went pretty quick. if 2 of {mac, GP, TNE} are scum, then they didn't really have the opportunity to bus

why would TNE-scum neighborize Mac who's been on him pretty much the whole game?

why would TNE-town do that?

[zMuffinMan]

[4] Varsoon (Mac, pieguyn, Morph the Cat, waynegg)
[3] BROseidon (zMuffinMan, mastin2, thenewearth)
[2] mastin2 (Psychlone, BROseidon)
[1] Mac (Varsoon)

[2] Not Voting (Ghostly Penguin, thezmon221)

the height of the varsoon wagon prior to him claiming (somewhere around p51)

[pieguyn]

unless scum were absent during the day (e.g. GP, TNE and kinda mac since he didn't really post after the very beginning of the day), what do you think the point of BRO's 1v1 with AA9 was?

probably to score a mislynch on his way out, since if he succeeds it'd be 5-3 MyLo, and then 4-2 MyLo once we lynch him. I get the feeling scum was certain he'd be lynched anyway, and so he did something ridiculous just to at least have a chance to do something.

[4]

Varsoon

(Mac,

pieguyn

,

morph the cat

,

waynegg

)
[3]

BROseidon

(zMuffinMan,

mastin2

, thenewearth)
[2]

mastin2

(Psychlone,

BROseidon

)
[1] Mac (

Varsoon

)

[2] Not Voting (Ghostly Penguin,

thezmon221

)

not much to see there. varsoon wagon was pretty damn town. then whether mac is town or not is equivalent to whether varsoon's wagon was completely town driven.

[5] MafiaSSK (zMuffinMan, BROseidon, Psychlone, thezmon221, Morph the Cat)

if AA9 is town here, it wouldn't surprise me if there's no other scum on this wagon. i was kind of in agreement with mastin's analysis here that it's far more likely scum wanted to avoid this wagon like the plague and not dirty their hands.

[7] waynegg (pieguyn, Morph the Cat, Ghostly Penguin, thenewearth, BROseidon, Varsoon, Psychlone)

no way in hell this was a town-driven counter-wagon. if there's only one more scum here, it's likely one of GP and TNE. i really disliked the way both of them hopped onto this wagon.

who do you think bussed BRO? if no one, why do you think that's the case?

if AA9 is scum, then that answers this question. if she's town, then i dunno. the day went pretty quick. if 2 of {mac, GP, TNE} are scum, then they didn't really have the opportunity to bus

why didn't you mention giffycho at all here?

why would TNE-scum neighborize Mac who's been on him pretty much the whole game?

why would TNE-town do that?

I have an answer, but rather than outing it I prefer to wait for TNE.

[zMuffinMan]

why didn't you mention giffycho at all here?

i think i explained it

they could be scum, i guess, but they wouldn't be my first choice

[zMuffinMan]

probably to score a mislynch on his way out

the thing is, that was likely not happening without support from his partners, so where do you think his partners were in all this?

I get the feeling scum was certain he'd be lynched anyway, and so he did something ridiculous just to at least have a chance to do something.

the smart thing to do there would have been to shut the fuck up and say nothing and maybe try to score some town cred for one or both of his partners on the way done.

that's the main reason i'm paranoid about AA9 at the moment

[zMuffinMan]

here's another question: do you think what BRO did yesterday was off the cuff or planned?

i think it was planned

[pieguyn]

now that I look, you've never explained your townread on giffycho anywhere

explain plz

also, why do you think we should massclaim today?

the thing is, that was likely not happening without support from his partners, so where do you think his partners were in all this?

probably at least one was playing wait-and-see, or they weren't even here. either that or they all bussed him just to fk with us. regardless it was a gambit that wasn't guaranteed to work and even despite all this AA9's reaction read town as fuck

not to mention you had mentioned thez's reaction to my fake shot was town. was it really just paranoia on AA9 that changed your opinion on the slot?

here's another question: do you think what BRO did yesterday was off the cuff or planned?

i think it was planned

planned for sure. I can't see shit like that not being planned in some way o.o

[zMuffinMan]

you've never explained your townread on giffycho anywhere

it initially came from the tone of their early posts, but i also think the way they've approached this game in general is town trying to figure shit out. there's various points throughout the game where i remember thinking i didn't see any scum motivation in the way they've approached things. as a quick example without ISOing, the exchange i had with them at the end of D1 (particularly what they said about their read on me) made me think town

i may go through their ISO again tonight and pull up other examples

what don't you like about them?

why do you think we should massclaim today?

because i want all the claims on the table sooner rather than later

and if we mislynch today, i don't want a mass claim happening at lylo

not to mention you had mentioned thez's reaction to my fake shot was town. was it really just paranoia on AA9 that changed your opinion on the slot?

pretty much

[zMuffinMan]

like it's not even really that i'm scum reading AA9 right now. it's more a gut ping than anything because BRO's actions yesterday were strange

especially if that was something pre-planned

[pieguyn]

what don't you like about them?

they've been commenting on stuff, but they haven't actually been pushing people trying to obtain new information. also, they've been on almost every major wagon (every single one besides varsoon, and the mastin wagon was a major thing at that time too)

the timing of their jump onto BRO also matches the theory that one of the partners was playing wait-and-see o-o

[pieguyn]

why did you decide on D1 that wayne should be left till D2?

I couldn't find it, but I might have missed it >_<

[zMuffinMan]

i think a lot of them not "pushing" people comes from their lack of activity

you're approaching wagon analysis incorrectly if you're looking at how much someone was on major wagons (in general, scum want to avoid major wagons if they can)

and meh. i'm not going to rule out the possibility that they're scum and their jump onto BRO was a bus but i'm not as wary of them as i am of others atm

why did you decide on D1 that wayne should be left till D2?

is this referring to when i tried to derail the wayne wagon after BRO claimed flavour cop?

[pieguyn]

i think a lot of them not "pushing" people comes from their lack of activity

yeah that's the other thing. both are active elsewhere, so I don't understand their inactivity here. for me it'd make a lot of sense if the inactivity was due to them rolling scum 0.0

is this referring to when i tried to derail the wayne wagon after BRO claimed flavour cop?

no, I mean around the time of your massive interaction with wayne you said somewhere you didn't want to deal with him on that day, after being completely all in on lynching him. tho you trying to derail the wayne wagon was what made me think about this in the first place, since when the opportunity to lynch him did come up you didn't take it.

[zMuffinMan]

i was under the impression their inactivity was site-wide. at least that's what i remember morph saying at some point

as for wayne, that's mostly theory. i don't lynch claimed PRs D1 unless i have good reason to think they're lying or the alternative wagons are just shit and i really think they're scum *shrug*

[zMuffinMan]

The problem with nachogif is lack of content, but they both have reasons they can't post much atm and it's a site-wide thing. GiF just replaced out of a ton of games a couple days ago, and Nacho's laptop was stolen.

[pieguyn]

I know for a fact both GIF and Nacho are active elsewhere though.

btw

what is your read on tne? and would you be willing to switch to the tne wagon?

thing is, if i wasn't reading BRO as scum, i'd probably be reading TNE as scum.

the initial like i had for TNE's play has long since faded and if BRO actually is town then TNE's contributions to the game so far amount to nothing but tunneling BRO and... nothing else i can really remember. but i don't think TNE is scum with BRO, and my read on BRO is stronger than my read on TNE.

@mastin,

where does your read on morph come from?

where'd the flip flop on TNE come from?

[zMuffinMan]

his jump onto the wayne wagon

[zMuffinMan]

even apart from not liking the way he jumped onto the wayne wagon, i don't understand how TNE goes from being all over BRO for the entirety of D1 to being like, "sup, wayne lynch? yeah i'm down with that!"

[zMuffinMan]

(TNE this doesn't mean you're off the hook)

The feeling is mutual

also i thought this was odd

[pieguyn]

TNE and I know each other, so probably his jump on wayne had smth to do with me saying he broke my heart </3

until then he seemed to be all in on riding the BRO wagon, and the only other vote until he jumped on wayne was that of GP.

anyway, I'm too tired to think straight right now. night ww

[zMuffinMan]

until then he seemed to be all in on riding the BRO wagon

exactly my point