A uPick of Ice & Fire - Day 12 - #REKT?


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Post Post #4650 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 4:23 am

Post by ooba »

Here's a list of coloured selected VCs - I really didn't find staring at it that useful - those of you who are better at this can use it.

Spoiler: Coloured VC
In post 427, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 1, Vc 14
PrideandJoy
(1) -
Amrun

Cephrir (1) -
Goat on a Raft

kanyeknowsbest (3) -
Andrius
,
ooba
,
PeaceBringer

elleheathen (5) -
PrideandJoy
, Cephrir, Garruk Relentless, kanyeknowsbest,
Thor665

quadz08
(4) -
Shadoweh,
StupendousMan
, Natilius, Benmage
Amrun
(2) -
Tierce, macmollie
ooba
(1) -
Alfred Borden
StupendousMan
(1)-
Tammy
Thor665
(1) -
Zdenek

Not voting (5)
- Messiah Complex, SafetyDance, Syryana,
quadz08
, elleheathen

With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch
In post 503, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 1, Vc 17
PrideandJoy
(1) -
Amrun

kanyeknowsbest (3) -
Andrius
,
ooba
,
PeaceBringer

elleheathen (3) -
Garruk Relentless, kanyeknowsbest,
Thor665

quadz08
(6) -
Shadoweh,
StupendousMan
, Benmage,
macmollie
, Cephrir, Nautilius
Amrun
(1) -
Tierce
ooba
(4) -
Alfred Borden,
quadz08
,
Goat on a Raft
,
PrideandJoy

StupendousMan
(1)-
Tammy
Thor665
(1) -
Zdenek

Not voting (4)
- Messiah Complex, SafetyDance, Syryana, elleheathen

With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch
In post 1423, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 1, Vc 38
PrideandJoy
(1) -
Amrun

ooba
(11) -
Alfred Borden,
quadz08
,
PrideandJoy
,
AGar
, Shadoweh, Tierce, Tammy,
StupendousMan
,
Goat on a Raft
, Syryana, Garruk Relentless
StupendousMan
(1)-
Nautilius
Thor665
(5) -
elleheathen, kanyeknowsbest,
macmollie
, Benmage, Cephrir
Goat on a Raft
(1) -
displaced

Zdenek (1) -
Messiah Complex
Garruk Relentless (2) -
SafetyDance,
ooba

Amrun
(2) -
Thor665
, Zdenek

Not voting (0)-
NO ONE
With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch
In post 1654, Eddard Stark wrote:

Day 1, Vc 48
PrideandJoy
(1) -
Amrun

ooba
(4) -
PrideandJoy
,
AGar
,
StupendousMan
,
Goat on a Raft

Thor665
(5) -
elleheathen, kanyeknowsbest, Benmage, SafetyDance, Zdenek
Amrun
(1) -
Thor665

SafetyDance (12) -
Alfred Borden, Syryana, Garruk Relentless, Cephrir, Tammy, Shadoweh,
displaced
, Tierce, Nautilius,
ooba
, Messiah Complex,
quadz08


Not voting (1)-
macmollie


With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch]
In post 1810, Eddard Stark wrote:

Day 1, Vc 54
ooba
(3) -
AGar
,
StupendousMan
, Syryana
Thor665
(13) -
elleheathen, Benmage, SafetyDance, Zdenek, Alfred Borden, Garruk Relentless, Tierce, Shadoweh,
Goat on a Raft
,
quadz08
, Nautilius, Cephrir,
PrideandJoy

SafetyDance (1) -
displaced

Garruk Relentless (6) -
kanyeknowsbest,
Amrun
,
Thor665
,
ooba
,
macmollie
, Messiah Complex

Not voting (1)-
Tammy

With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch
In post 2186, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 2, Vc 14
Amrun
(12) -
Zdenek, Alfred Borden, Nautilius, Shadoweh, Tammy, SafetyDance, Benmage,
macmollie
,
PrideandJoy
, elleheathen,
AGar
,
SpyreX

Nautilius (3) -
StupendousMan
,
Amrun
,
quadz08

Messiah Complex (2) -
Cephrir,
ooba

elleheathen (1) -
Goat on a Raft

AGar
(1) -
The Alchemist
SpyreX
(1) -
Messiah Complex

Not voting (3)
: Garuk Relentless, Tierce, kanyeknowsbest

With 23 alive it takes 12 votes to lynch
In post 2685, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 3, Vc 17
SpyreX
(6) -
Tammy,
ooba
, Zdenek, elleheathen, Messiah Complex, Nautilius
AGar
(3) -
Goat on a Raft
, The Alchemist, Alfred Borden
Zdenek (5) -
kanyeknowsbest,
StupendousMan
, Shadoweh,
SpyreX
,
AGar

elleheathen (1) -
Goat on a Raft

Benmage (1) -
PrideandJoy

The Alchemist (4) -
Tierce,
quadz08
, Benmage, Garruk Relentless

Not voting (2)
:Cephrir, SafetyDance

With 21 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch
In post 3005, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 3, Vc 27
SpyreX
(10) -
Tammy,
ooba
, elleheathen, Nautilius, The Alchemist, Messiah Complex,
Katsuki
,
Goat on a Raft
, Shadoweh, Garruk Relentless, Tierce
Zdenek (3) -
SpyreX
,
AGar
, SafetyDance
elleheathen (1) -
Goat on a Raft

Benmage (1) -
PrideandJoy

The Alchemist (4) -
quadz08
, Benmage, kanyeknowsbest, Zdenek

Not voting (2) -
Cephrir, Alfred Borden
With 21 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch
In post 3328, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 4, Vc 10
The Alchemist (1) -
Benmage
Titus (3) -
Nautilius, SafetyDance, kanyeknowsbest
elleheathen (2) -
Goat on a Raft
,
PrideandJoy

SafetyDance (8) -
Titus,
quadz08
, Garruk Relentless, Cephrir, Tammy, The Alchemist,
Katsuki
,
AGar

quadz08
(2) -
ooba
, Shadoweh

Not voting (4)
:Alfred Borden, elleheathen, Messiah Complex, Tierce

With 20 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch
In post 3576, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 4, Vc 17
The Alchemist (1) -
Benmage
Titus (5) -
Nautilius, kanyeknowsbest, The Alchemist, SafetyDance,
Goat on a Raft

SafetyDance (1) -
quadz08

quadz08
(9) -
ooba
, Shadoweh, Messiah Complex, Cephrir, Titus,
Goat on a Raft
, Garruk Relentless, Tierce,
AGar

Tierce (1) -
Katsuki


Not voting (4)
- Alfred Borden, elleheathen,
PrideandJoy
, Tammy

With 20 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch
In post 3755, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 4, Vc 20
The Alchemist (1) -
Benmage
Titus (4) -
kanyeknowsbest, SafetyDance,
Goat on a Raft
, elleheathen
SafetyDance (8) -
quadz08
, Nautilius,
AGar
,
ooba
, The Alchemist, Cephrir, Garruk Relentless, Titus
quadz08
(2) -
Shadoweh,
Goat on a Raft

Tierce (1) -
Katsuki

Garruk Relentless (1) -
Messiah Complex
No lynch (1) -
PrideandJoy


Not voting (3)
- Alfred Borden, Tammy, Tierce

With 20 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch
In post 3949, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 4, Vc 27
The Alchemist (3) -
Benmage, Titus, SafetyDance
Titus (1) -
elleheathen
SafetyDance (2) -
AGar
, Garruk Relentless
quadz08
(11) -
Shadoweh, kanyesknowsbest, Nautilius, The Alchemist, Cephrir,
Katsuki
, Tammy,
ooba
, Tierce,
PrideandJoy
,
Goat on a Raft

Garruk Relentless (1) -
Messiah Complex
Messiah Complex (1)-
Goat on a Raft


Not voting (2)
- Alfred Borden,
quadz08


With 20 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch
In post 4180, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 5, Vc 8
PrideandJoy
(2) -
kanyeknowsbest, Nautilius
Garruk Relentless (3) -
Messiah Complex, SafetyDance, Titus
Cephrir (1) -
PrideandJoy

The Alchemist (1) -
Benmage
Titus (6) -
AGar
, The Alchemist,
Goat on a Raft
, Cephrir, elleheathen, Garuk Relentless

Not voting (5) -
Alfred Borden,
ooba
, Shadoweh, Tammy, Tierce

With 18 alive it takes 10 votes to lynch
In post 4456, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 5, Vc 13
PrideandJoy
(10) -
kanyeknowsbest, Tammy, Cephrir, Benmage, The Alchemist, elleheathen,
AGar
,
Goat on a Raft
, Titus, Alfred Borden
Titus (3) -
Goat on a Raft
, Garuk Relentless, Nautilius
Cephrir (1) -
PrideandJoy

Goat on a Raft
(1) -
Messiah Complex
The Alchemist (2) -
SafetyDance,
ooba


Not voting (2) -
Shadoweh, Tierce

With 18 alive it takes 10 votes to lynch
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Post Post #4651 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 4:41 am

Post by Messiah Complex »

In post 4580, Nautilius wrote:-Empire's scumgame is very inconsistent; he can make one big post, but his consistency is absolute shit. During Day 1, Empire was around, he was posting, he was doing a lot of good things. Compare his D1 here with his D1 in that Mini Normal and you'll see a hell of a difference.
-Empire hates scum. Llamarble does not hate scum, and is competent at it. If that hydra drew scum, Llamarble would be the driving head and Empire would be in the background (see any morph the cat scum completed game for an example of that), but Empire was the primary driver the entire game and he's uncomfortable as fuck.
-See Empire's confidence in the mini normal scumgame, where his biggest meta threat was ffery versus his confidence here, where his biggest meta threats were Tammy/Tierce as part of the TET masonry. There's no way in hell he goes from awkward as hell as scum in a Mini Normal to god-tier town D1 here when there are more things he has to worry about here.
I don't think any of these points are valid at this juncture.

1. It's D7. Has Borden looked town at ALL since D1? Neither you nor Tammy can point to anything Empire's done in the last 6 days to justify the townread he gave you D1. How is that anything but inconsistency?
2. OK. a) They are obviously aware of this and are certainly capable of playing on your expectations, and b) Llamarble is also a fucking awesome town player and so is Empire, and as a team they have accomplished exactly jack and shit despite being a universal townread since D1. How is that not ringing alarm bells for you???
3. There's no way in hell? Get real, Nacho. It's called effort. He gave it D1 and he towned it up. In Wingate his town energy never let up despite that game descending into total madness--here he's in an uber powerful D1 townblock with all of his best friends and he tapers off into total nothingness.

Vote: Alfred Borden


- Des
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Post Post #4652 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 4:53 am

Post by ooba »

In post 4651, Messiah Complex wrote:Has Borden looked town at ALL since D1?
Has TheAlchemist ever looked town?

Borden is town.
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Post Post #4653 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 4:57 am

Post by Messiah Complex »

When he was Syry, yeah. And during the Tierce/coin thing.

Why are they town?

- Des
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Post Post #4654 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:05 am

Post by ooba »

In post 4653, Messiah Complex wrote:When he was Syry, yeah. And during the Tierce/coin thing.

Why are they town?

- Des
Because some of their posting was very genuine - I do not see scum faking that. The only thing I didnt like about their play was not voting SpyreX.

Let's take yesterday's hammer - you say "he's in an uber powerful D1 townblock with all of his best friends and he tapers off into total nothingness" - and his play as scum is to come back and hammer goat? What's the payoff? Compare it with SpyreX's hammer - SpyreX got a mislynch which he otherwise wouldn't have (Amrun). Alfred's hammer just drew attention to himself for no payoff since Goat was going to be lynched anyway.
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Post Post #4655 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:09 am

Post by Messiah Complex »

We've been thinking a lot about the lack of NKs and Spyrex claiming that he had a role that required him to hammer.

We think there is a very clear payoff for scum-Borden to have hammered the last two days.

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Post Post #4656 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:19 am

Post by The Alchemist »

In post 4619, kanyeknowsbest wrote:can i ask why alchemist hasnt killed ne1 yet
Coin's long gone, man.

Tierce, Tammy, watchu thinkin rite now?
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Post Post #4657 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:24 am

Post by Messiah Complex »

D1 - Thor hammered by PNJ
N1 - No kill
D2 - Amrun hammered by Spyrex
N2 - Macmollie killed
D3 - Spyrex hammered by Tierce
N3 - No kill
D4 - Quadz hammered by Goat on a Raft
N4 - Katsuki killed by Shadoweh
D5 - PNJ hammered by Borden
N5 - No kill
D6 - Goat on a Raft hammered by Borden
N6 - AGar killed

Guess who never got a chance to check in D6 to say who he blocked N5 and then got murdered the next night even though he wasn't in town block?

Borden is scum.

- Des
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Post Post #4658 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:32 am

Post by ooba »

In post 4655, Messiah Complex wrote:We've been thinking a lot about the lack of NKs and Spyrex claiming that he had a role that required him to hammer.

We think there is a very clear payoff for scum-Borden to have hammered the last two days.

- Des
I like the theory & can see how you got there. However I think SpyreX was lying about the entire "I needed to hammer" thing.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p5396132
N5 - No kill
D6 - Goat on a Raft hammered by Borden
N6 - AGar killed

Guess who never got a chance to check in D6 to say who he blocked N5 and then got murdered the next night even though he wasn't in town block?
This is a much stronger reason for the hammer on D6 than above. Gut still says Bowden town but I'll think about it.
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Post Post #4659 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:34 am

Post by Messiah Complex »

In post 4654, ooba wrote:The only thing I didnt like about their play was not voting SpyreX.
How about them completely avoiding Quadz too? After being present on virtually every major town wagon D1 and D2 (ooba, Thor, SafetyDance, Amrun), Borden was nowhere to be found on either of the two flipped scum.

Not only were they not lynching scum, they weren't doing anything at all. On D3, Borden's name appears under "Not Voting" in 10 of the 27 VCs--when they were voting, it was either AGar (the first Spyrex counterwagon) or Alchemist (the 2nd).

D4 is more of the same.
Borden didn't vote the entire fucking day four. Not once. How is that even possible?!?!


D5--12/13 Not voting! Only showed up to hammer PNJ.

D6 - Quickhammer.

I cannot emphasize enough how scummy Borden is.

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Post Post #4660 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:36 am

Post by Messiah Complex »

@ Ooba: We think Spyrex was lying about it being his role specifically. We think he just claimed it because that would seem like a realistic fakeclaim.

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Post Post #4661 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:40 am

Post by Cephrir »

In post 4657, Messiah Complex wrote:D1 - Thor hammered by PNJ
N1 - No kill
D2 - Amrun hammered by Spyrex
N2 - Macmollie killed
D3 - Spyrex hammered by Tierce
N3 - No kill
D4 - Quadz hammered by Goat on a Raft
N4 - Katsuki killed by Shadoweh
D5 - PNJ hammered by Borden
N5 - No kill
D6 - Goat on a Raft hammered by Borden
N6 - AGar killed

Guess who never got a chance to check in D6 to say who he blocked N5 and then got murdered the next night even though he wasn't in town block?

Borden is scum.

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Post Post #4662 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 6:18 am

Post by Shadoweh »

In post 4653, Messiah Complex wrote:When he was Syry, yeah. And during the Tierce/coin thing.
Why are they town?
- Des
But Alchemist is still Syry >.>
Oh I get it, I guess I'm the mysterious third party. When I am an SK I especially like to tell everyone about my killing ability and let people know my nightly whoreabouts. I'm waiting for Empire to do something besides hammer and leave I guess? I really didn't think that'd be an issue. :/
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Post Post #4663 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 7:37 am

Post by Titus »

Ooba, why is Borden town? Desp's case looks fucking flawless. All you've said is you think Borden is town, or you'll think about it.
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Post Post #4664 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 8:20 am

Post by ooba »

In post 4663, Titus wrote:Ooba, why is Borden town? Desp's case looks fucking flawless. All you've said is you think Borden is town, or you'll think about it.
I'm a intuitive player (see spoiler) - I go by what feels right.
Spoiler: My Playstyle
In post 4492, ooba wrote:If I had known that's what you were going to do, I would have suggested someone better :(
I have a feeling this is T vs T
In post 4270, ooba wrote:PnJ is flailing yes - but this is town flailing, not scum flailing ... I'll be happy if I'm proved wrong but I just don't feel it.

Also, the entire game state just doesn't feel like one big scum team anymore - far too many town reads and unless all rest Chaos scum are in {elle, TheAlch, PnJ, AGar, GR} (and even that seems unlikely given voting patterns) - I just can't see it. Let me take a look at VCs again.
In post 4283, ooba wrote:PnJ is town - stop voting him.

That said I'll try and highlight my reasons. Overall: Alfred's posting comes from a town mindset. A lot of his posts seem to echo my thoughts and to a certain extent, my reads. (D3-D4)
Alfred wrote:
In post 2102, Eddard Stark wrote:
SpyreX replaces displaced! Welcome him to the game
Man, I really want to be super amped here but the truth is I just feel like this game got way harder.
- This is EXACTLY what I thought after SpyreX replaced in to the displaced slot

- His analysis posts were bang on. His meta analysis of me was so good that whenever I was neutral on someone in the game, I'd go back and read his meta analysis on that player.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p5398193
Now effort is not town - but this is genuine town hunting.

- We've agreed on all most all town reads. (Except probably Benmage - I still have him as neutral)

What I don't like about him:
- He disappeared for the most part when we had lynches on SpyreX+Quadz.
- The lack of activity
Where my read stands right now: The same one I had on Nacho on D3 - a town read who's posting level has gone down and makes me uneasy. I hope they'd come back and make uber posts like Nacho did so that we can go back to lynching scum.
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Post Post #4665 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:09 am

Post by Titus »

Ooba, I am not a gut player for the most part. For me to back off AB, I would need an explanation fr how the dual hammers came from a town mindset and a hole in Desp's case. Your play from the gut is wholly unpersuasive.
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Post Post #4666 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:46 am

Post by SafetyDance »

Titus in going with the flavor of the month shocker.

I like MC's case but it's more flawless irt why Agar was killed than why AB is scum. That said, I had an early scum read on the slot before it was fashionable, but did choose to focus on Other Targets more recently. Going back to re-read and see if reasons still apply.

That was the worst attempt at a vote before, kinda missed an important part to it, sorry.

Vote: TheAlchemist
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Post Post #4667 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:48 am

Post by SafetyDance »

Day 1 and Syry was in spam party mode early on and then went with the crowd later in the day.

Was. not. Town.
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Post Post #4668 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 10:01 am

Post by Garruk Relentless »

Heh, me and Messiah are on the same wavelength for once.
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Alfred Borden
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Post Post #4669 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 10:38 am

Post by Alfred Borden »

Empire's gone (permanently) at this point.
I am not hammer-powered.
I saw we'd reached the foregone conclusion point, didn't disagree, and decided to proceed.
Twice.
Didn't notice Agar hadn't posted yesterday.
I'll see you guys in Massachusetts.
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Eddard Stark
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Eddard Stark
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Post Post #4670 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 7:07 pm

Post by Eddard Stark »

Day 7, Vc 2

Alfred Borden (3) -
Garruk Relentless, Titus, Messiah Complex
elleheathen (2) -
Nautilius, Benmage
Titus (1) -
kanyeknowsbest
The Alchemist (3) -
ooba, Cephrir, SafetyDance

Not voting (6)
: Alfred Borden, elleheathen, Shadoweh, The Alchemist, Tammy, Tierce

With 15 alive it takes 8 votes to lynch
  • Deadline Date: 5th of December 20:15 EST
  • Deadline Countdown: (expired on 2013-12-08 19:30:00)
  • No oneis V/la
War has arrived!

PM me for Dead QT access!
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Shadoweh
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Shadoweh
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Post Post #4671 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:27 pm

Post by Shadoweh »

Nautcho: If Alfred is scum then Llamarble would be the one doing the posting!
Llamarble: Empire is gone. Forever. I locked him in the basement and ate him.
Marble hurry up and make a real god damn post. :V
I HATE YOU SO MUCH PLEASE GO JUMP INTO A FREEZING LAKE - Mr. Freeze
And this was like me realizing that you were a serial killer. - Hathor
"but I must declare my love to Edelgard here, i offer you the treasure I stole from Raphael, an idol LOL" - Shamir
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Garruk Relentless
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Garruk Relentless
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Post Post #4672 (ISO) » Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:35 pm

Post by Garruk Relentless »

Nat-head VLA from Tuesday-Sunday
Hydra of MafiaSSK and Natirasha
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Nautilius
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Nautilius
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Post Post #4673 (ISO) » Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:24 am

Post by Nautilius »

In post 4613, Titus wrote:Lynching town was superawesome Naut?

Two hammers that end the day while stuff was happening.

VOTE: Alfred Borden
Yes it was super awesome because the game doesn't seem to be lagging anymore.
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Nautilius
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Post Post #4674 (ISO) » Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:26 am

Post by Nautilius »

In post 4638, kanyeknowsbest wrote:
In post 4636, Benmage wrote:
In post 4634, kanyeknowsbest wrote:
vote titus
Stop wasting time.
otoh lynch titus.
How about tomorrow?
Locked