A uPick of Ice & Fire - Day 12 - #REKT?

[Shadoweh]

Ugh, it's not like I'm not here you know, there's just nothing to say, especially considering who you're prodding me with. >_> And the super main wagon being V/LA.
Also Kayne probably isn't scum? So there's that.

[Garruk Relentless]

So, um, does anyone actually wanna do anything?

[Cephrir]

Yes, I want to lynch The Alchemist. But for unknown reasons it seems I'm going to have to wait five days for that to happen because people want to sit on unrealistic wagons. It's okay, I get it, I've been there and will probably be there again before this game is over.

[Nautilius]

VOTE: elleheathen yeah I am way supercomfy with that wagon. the wight comment reads too much like a slip to ignore this early in the game.

mmmmm the point brought up about roles-before-alignment pretty much invalidates that theory yeah

UNVOTE:

Tammy, is this what you were talking about?
Because this attack was just the extremely weak weak shit that I would expect to function as distancing.

[Tammy]

yeah that's what I meant.

presently I'm battling between my scum read on her, your scum read on her and marble and tierce's town read on her.

[Eddard Stark]

Day 7, Vc 10

Alfred Borden (2) -

Benmage, Shadoweh

elleheathen (1) -

Nautilius

Titus (1) -

kanyeknowsbest

The Alchemist (6) -

ooba, Cephrir, SafetyDance, Titus, Messiah Complex, elleheathen

Benmage (1) -

Alfred Borden

kanyeknowsbest (2) -

Tierce, Garruk Relentless

Not voting (2)

:The Alchemist, Tammy

With 15 alive it takes 8 votes to lynch

• Deadline Date: 5th of December 20:15 EST
  
• Deadline Countdown: (expired on 2013-12-08 19:30:00)
  
• Titus is V/la (or will be!)

[

[Nautilius]

yeah that's what I meant.

presently I'm battling between my scum read on her, your scum read on her and marble and tierce's town read on her.

Who do you trust more? Lazy marble, lazy tierce, or me and you who are clearly kicking ass?

[Nautilius]

hint: follow your heart
and my heart

[Nautilius]

Although, thought: What if Shadoweh's vig shot had a restriction on when she could shoot, hence holding onto it for so long?

[Garruk Relentless]

Although, thought: What if Shadoweh's vig shot had a restriction on when she could shoot, hence holding onto it for so long?

I'm interested in hearing where you're going with this.

[Nautilius]

Down a rabbit hole, probably.

[Garruk Relentless]

Down a rabbit hole, probably.

I mean, the answer is pretty obvious by the context clues she's left in the thread.

[Garruk Relentless]

Down a rabbit hole, probably.

I mean, the answer is pretty obvious by the context clues she's left in the thread.

At least, I see a very obvious restriction on her vig power.

[Nautilius]

Then tell me the restriction.

[Nautilius]

The marriage thing? Because if that's it I don't care much.

[Garruk Relentless]

Then tell me the restriction.

But, that's no fun.

[Garruk Relentless]

The marriage thing? Because if that's it I don't care much.

That's what I was thinking yeah.

[Nautilius]

Honestly I'm still not really sure what you expected me to do there, but I also don't really care.

This was the first townping from Cephrir's posts; seemed unlikely to be coming from scum-him, which tends to predict where he expects people to move and then moves there.

2. You could be - let's see if anyone even blinks an eye at me doing so.
But what is your experience with me as a man who reads everything? I know we've played together before, but which games?

It's not "I know Thor reads everything so much as "I know Thor tries pretty hard at this game so I would think he'd want all the available information". But if you say you don't always read everything, I believe you. If you want me to refer to past games anyhow- I thought I'd played with you prior to my first departure from the site, but I don't think that's possible due to your join date, so I must just be thinking of Open 326, which I briefly returned for and then re-disappeared.

This was also very honest/an unncecessary backtrack for Cephrir scum. This is pretty much the first person he's pushing in the game; there's no need for him to pad that case with "oh I thought that I played with you way waaaay back in the day"; it's also a sensible enough comparison since Thor doesn't reek of new style play, so I can buy it.

UNVOTE:

I think that summarizes my thoughts on recent events.

Wanna join me on Goat? I still don't like quadz, but I can leave him alone for a second since there's some back and forth in his ISO.

Vote: Goat on a Raft

They're probably second on my list of mild concerns. Perhaps down the line.

VOTE: quadz

This is the easiest vote on a townie Cephrir could possibly take (and builds camaraderie with yours truly!), and instead Cephrir votes scum? ++ townpoints.

Messiah's entrance is kinda scummy for me, don't care for the note formatting as they don't feel like how a townie would keep their notes,

I thought this was a very town Cephrir way to attack someone, this is where my read on Cephrir solidified to strong town.

I'll believe Syr is town when I get a decent reason to believe it.

Syr had been getting enough townreads D1 where I figure scumCephrir would go with the flow on it. TownCeph probably wouldn't have a townread on Syr at this point because there were no real reasons that Cephrir would like to call him town, so this response was pretty good.

I'm not really sure. I'd love it if someone more familiar could tell me how Thor plays scum.

I loved how Cephrir fully engaged Thor with his fight with elleheathen, but didn't fuel that into a scumread. I find myself getting into more fights as town to untangle things, which doesn't necessarily help with my read on either side; cephrir-scum has that same tendency and usually uses those early game conflicts as fuel for early scumreads. Here, there's no reason not to leverage elleheathen townread into Thor scumread for Cephrir-scum.

Is she? I wouldn't have guessed, I can hardly remember her doing much of anything useful. This is kinda similar to how I see ffery- "why aren't you obvtown for me yet". I don't really get why she's being townread.

I liked this as well. Cephrir usually holds mollie/ffery to an unbelievably high standard; I see why they weren't clicking so awesomely for him here.

I think he could easily be voting for an obscure target not to get on my good side specifically but to look townie by not jumping on any of the available wagons in the name of self preservation
I also mentioned earlier that I agreed with the thrust of Messiah's case on SM.
The case just isn't very persuasive or strong, nor does it look like it could plausibly convince anyone.

:/ See, I'm not even sure if I like SM myself and you couldn't convince me with this here. Not persuasive or strong still sounds like you're voting him for being bad at mafia. Yet at the same time you're arguing he's craftily doing a voting reach-around by voting someone who isn't popular in order to look townie? He honestly doesn't seem that level-headed.

Nor do I think it's terribly likely he honestly thinks said case is correct. I'd give him enough credit to be doing that to look townie, no one's going to change their mind and start townreading him if he just goes with the flow.

But I'm not incredibly confident and I'm trying that hard to sell anyone on my suspicion. If you had as shitty a scumhunting record as I do you'd feel the same way.

Very genuine, points here.

Syr-

This game got serious a lot faster than the other one did. I've already established that I believe I'm allowed to agree with people without thinking the argument I'm agreeing with is town.

I don't need to interact with people a ton to get a townread on them. Did you see me interacting with Bert a lot in that game beforehand? Not really, I thought the slot was scum until he switched accounts and then I decided he was mega absurdly town. The only difference is that Nacho isn't surprised by this.

It's kind of a relief to hear you actually have solid reasons, but as Nacho said in that game, I was playing atypically in some regards. I don't expect any of that to convince you though ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

"Bleh that game is weird and this is closer to the usual game I play, but I realize that isn't all that convincing" seemed pretty genuine and much more likely to be coming from his town game, where he feels he has less power than he does in his scumgames.

Sorry I couldn't see that before.

This is also crazy town. He'll also say something along the lines of "this is why ooba is town, mostly for myself than others" which is along the same lines of a tell like this and will convince some but not others. Cutting it because I'm feeling this wall is going to get long even though I haven't even found my favorite Cephrir towntell yet.

VOTE: Garruk

This is probably a better vote actually, I've wanted to lynch this the whole game

It's hard for me to picture Cephrir not having a vote, bussing his buddy with a non vote, and then totally not bussing his buddy. It's extremely extremely hard for me to imagine that.

Benmage
Cephrir
Garruk Relentless
Messiah Complex
quadz08
Shadoweh
Tammy
Tierce

Tierce is town.
Shadoweh is town.
Messiah

feels

very, very town but I need to finish a reread to be sure.

AHEM.

This.

If you're doubting me Nacho we're going to need to have words and they will be words about you being scum.

The 180 on me was immediate and comes the moment he's not incredibly town in my eyes. I found this genuine as hell and is sort of the series of posts I would point to if asked to sum up my read on Cephrir in as few words as possible.

and yeah i stopped reading because Cephrir is fucking town as fuck

[Nautilius]

Titus: Strongest evidence for Titus-town is confirmation of her ability whenever she used it, and the fact that she used that ability with two buddies down and a lot of missed nightkills. I give zero credence to multiball theories, which seem like half-assed ways to excuse not having the scumteam pegged by now, thanks to all the strong town hanging around. I also think the notes thing strikes me as an extraordinarily weird scum gambit; original note stances are viable enough and seem fine. Would be interested in what Cephrir picked up from them, though. I thought the flavorname thing (obviously obviously extraordinarily easy to figure out) was too Titus-y to be a planned scumgambit to clear quadz after SD's townflip; it became clear to me that the strategy was SD dies, quadz dies the next day OR blame it on the derp. Can't see a competent (or moderately incompetent) scumteam signing off on that gambit. I find her flashes of paranoa (especially the ones on me, where she gets suspicious of me being a third party) to be pretty fucking town, and I don't think kanye's observation of "oh she's careful but she missed something" is good at all. There's the PnJ counterclaim, a bunch of Titus conspiracy theories, and she's probably strongly and definitively town.

[Nautilius]

ooba and SD also amazingly strongly town, but I'll probably get into that again later.
I feel more comfortable with Titus. I feel less comfortable with kanye in townblock.

[Nautilius]

I feel less comfortable with kanye in townblock.

although I still don't think he's scum, don't get excited Tierce

[Nautilius]

I'm willing to vote The Alchemist as soon as someone tells me why Syryana wouldn't give his coin to a buddy and just stay quiet about it. Do you think Faraday told him he couldn't give the coin to buddies? Because that just sounds stupid.

He could have given it to me, who wouldn't have shot one of his buddies. Why wouldn't he have done that?

[Nautilius]

Although, to be fair, I don't understand why Shadoweh/Titus/Syryana held onto these things for so long.

[Nautilius]

Alchemist objectively looks the sketchiest based on play though.

I'm assuming Shadoweh kills would be strongmanned, based on Alchemist's role.
Titus play/usage is all pretty solid.
Alchemist is likeliest to be blocked by AGar, and is duh going to make the kills because ninja.

[Nautilius]

I guess The Alchemist/elleheathen/kanye/Garruk would be my guess for a scumteam currently, although it's weird because Garruk/kanye interactions and because elle/Garruk business with Tierce.

:/