Marketplace Mafia III - Game Over

[Harakiri]

zmuffin why'd you govern Nero?

Oh, pray do tell the class! This is not the time for shitty reaction tests.

[pieguyn]

I just explained it man. That goverened townie framed to look scum will get mis-lynched the next day when he isn't protected. I haven't actually ran the numbers but mis-lynching today, night kill and mis-lynch tomorrow is game over right?

either way we still get 1 more mislynch

framing him and leaving his lynch to tomorrow is equivalent to just lynching him today and going for a mislynch tomorrow. except the latter has less risk so why wouldn't they go for it

[ProHawk]

Because they know they can setup a flash-wagon on an easy town-lynch. Just look at the string of LB's posts.

I am letting you know now that if Nero flips scum, I'm policy lynching you tomorrow!

An hour later governor was activated.

;_;

I outed myself for that slimy bastard.

<3

Garuda, when you're finished gloating, please tell us who we should be lynching today.

what the fuck is going on
I don't even

Unless someone wants to fess up to governing Nero, there are two possible explanations, one of which is far more likely than the other.

Setting the stage, all of the three posts are implying that Nero is scum, the logical process that should follow is my "policy lynch". My guess is he is now asleep which is why he hasn't hit my wagon yet.

[ProHawk]

Flash wagons require a lot less debate/thinking which make it for an ideal scum-push because town follow suit to avoid a no-lynch-scenario.

[Lord Mhork]

Fuck I don't know anything anymore. I maintain my ProHawk town read though.

[Harakiri]

I actually find that a likely theory, ProHawk.

Assuming both you and I are town(please indulge me this thought, ProHawk), where do we go today? Espeonage is hitting me hard with that wagon hop.

[pieguyn]

hm

unvote

do you think scum thinks they wouldn't get another mislynch with a nero townflip today?

also, if you think this is a scum gambit by LB, then why the hell did you vote for Harakiri over her? 0.0

[zMuffinMan]

zmuffin why'd you govern Nero?

don't insult me

Because they know they can setup a flash-wagon on an easy town-lynch

i don't think that makes a lot of sense. nero being scum is the much simpler answer.

governing nero-town sounds like a stupid short-term plan that gives scum nothing unless they secure a mislynch today, and even then it may backfire if enough people thought scum hatched a plan to govern nero-town. on the other hand, if nero-town were lynched today and a kill went through tonight, in a worst-case scenario of scum getting the kill each night, we'd have to lynch correctly 5 times in a row to win.

but if you really think this is the case:

(1) why wouldn't the same options for an "easy town-lynch" be on the table tomorrow if nero is town and was lynched today?
(2) shouldn't you be more suspicious of me when i'm the one who started your wagon?

[pieguyn]

I actually find that a likely theory, ProHawk.

Assuming both you and I are town(please indulge me this thought, ProHawk), where do we go today? Espeonage is hitting me hard with that wagon hop.

I thought you said Esp was a lynchbait

what happened

[zMuffinMan]

ebwop:

and we'd have to avoid scum using the govern to save one of their own tomorrow while lynching correctly 5 times

[Voidedmafia]

Might as well flash me since Nero is scum am-i-rite?

VOTE: Harakiri

This should be done today.

This vote feels out of place, considering how condescending you're being towards the others for wanting to flashwagon you and hara isn't voting you at the time of this post.

Town reads currently reside with Nero

I cannot possibly believe this.

inb4 prohawk, nero, baldeagle scumteam of the year

That would be funny, though. And a good call if that's even 2/3rds true.

looking back at his interactions with people on D2 wherever right after I caught up, a lot of them felt really odd and it's been bugging me the whole game. just was too lazy to look at them again. but again, fuck it

including or excluding his interaction with me?

So kill me and find out. Like I said, I honestly just don't have time to get stuff done here sorry.

Sounds a lot like you're trying to cop out of explaining.

And if you think I would put Nero in my town-reads as scum given everything that happened, you should think-again.

Agreed with Pie below, this is WIFOM town.

I don't see scum-motivation in his posts. I have played with Nero-town and this has the same feel and I have agreed with a lot of his reads and rationale. Its a quick summary.

So you both A.) Disagree with muffin's claim that his reads are static back on D2-ish onward, and B.) Agree with his "VM is scum cuz resistance" argument (which, I might add, you cannot POSSIBLY use against me now.)

I just explained it man. That goverened townie framed to look scum will get mis-lynched the next day when he isn't protected. I haven't actually ran the numbers but mis-lynching today, night kill and mis-lynch tomorrow is game over right?

So scum are trying to set up Nero-town to be lynched tomorrow and get another lynch today?

...But, if Nero is town, with 14 alive and 5 scum remaining (so 9 town left), if we assume that LB and Pie are indeed town, they just gave themselves barely more than a 50% chance that we could him them tonight. If there was one more generally-agreed townread, that puts it at an even 50% (5 scum vs. 5 possibly mislynch targets, 5v6 without the extra townread).I don't know about you, but that doesn't really feel like odds that scum with that many numbers would want to take, unless they're really daring or whatnot.

The Governing in and of itself IS very confusing, I can agree there, but I feel like Occam's Razor cuts toward Nero being scum. As for why, well, I could give an argument or two for town and scum to do it.

zmuffin why'd you govern Nero?

what.

I actually find that a likely theory, ProHawk.

I see the theory, but disagree with the conclusion.

also, if you think this is a scum gambit by LB, then why the hell did you vote for Harakiri over her? 0.0

Very good question.

[pieguyn]

zmuffin plz don't make me get all paranoid of you again >_<//

[ProHawk]

Not really, your trajectory on me feels the most natural IMO. If tomorrow ends up being MYLO/LYLO, you will have a lot more scrutiny on the lynch target and whole lot of time to get it done. If you could force people to choose a lynch within two days by freezing the lead wagon, you setup the next days lynch, all while exerting scum-influence for pushing a quick-wagon.

Like I said, I havent ran any numbers, but if it would be MYLO/LYLO tomorrow, this plan is a victory-plan.

Take a look at all that scum has accomplished. Does it look like the scum-team is playing simply?

Pie, Harakiri has been on my scum-radar for a long time and I feel like they have a higher chance of flipping scum. I didn't put the pieces together on LB until MuffinMan criticized me play and you all pushed me against the fire and I felt bad for slacking when clearly we are being walked all-over.

I don't like Espeonage's votes... but I kinda liked his predecessors for town. I would go for upside down or LB honestly, but I seem to be the only conspiracy theorist in the room.

[ProHawk]

Voided, I am just going to say this because its been bugging me this whole game. If you want me to answer anything in your post, address me without the wall of edited quotes.

[pieguyn]

so you think this whole thing was planned? do you think both Harakiri and LB are scum and do you think there's more scum pushing you atm?

So kill me and find out. Like I said, I honestly just don't have time to get stuff done here sorry.

if you knew this was the day before MYLO, this seems like a really odd attitude to have, especially with one of your townreads also being on the end of the rope. cause then a loss would be really imminent 0.0

[pieguyn]

ugh all the logic points to prohawk scum

but my gut is leaning prohawk town

zmuffin what should I do

[zMuffinMan]

Like I said, I havent ran any numbers, but if it would be MYLO/LYLO tomorrow, this plan is a victory-plan.

yeah, if nero is town and scum were able to secure a mislynch today and we lynched him tomorrow and no night kills were blocked, then it would be a victory-plan, but that's a lot of ifs when the much simpler solution seems to be letting the lynch on nero go through if he's town.

your conspiracy theory seems overly complicated and there are so many things that could go wrong.

let's say i give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you're town, or at least change my mind about wanting to lynch you today. i don't think nero is town, but that can be discussed tomorrow regardless of what happens today. your main suspects are people i think are town. who else would you be willing to lynch? or when are you going to have time to explain why i'm wrong about LB/UD/harakiri?

[zMuffinMan]

zmuffin what should I do

who would you want to lynch today if nobody had any votes on them right now?

[pieguyn]

if I could hazard a guess, baldeagle

[pieguyn]

or mb uwop
I don't even know

[Voidedmafia]

Voided, I am just going to say this because its been bugging me this whole game. If you want me to answer anything in your post, address me without the wall of edited quotes.

Tough. I don't always get the luxury of being able to post replies directly to people, and I'm not going to pander to one person. Unless you're just as time-tied as me, it doesn't take that much work to search for your name in my post and work from there.

[zMuffinMan]

actually one thing that worries me about quilford is him going afk til wednesday when the deadline is like 60 hours from now but i still don't think he's scum

i could probably get behind a baldy wagon

Unvote

i've gotta go for dinner. i'll think about what i want to do today when i get back.

[Voidedmafia]

If you could force people to choose a lynch within two days by freezing the lead wagon, you setup the next days lynch, all while exerting scum-influence for pushing a quick-wagon.

This does make sense, though. I'm just not sold on it coming from LB.

[Quilford]

Wednesday is today here, zMuff. It's 6:51 pm and I intend to post as soon as I can get to a desktop.

[Quilford]

Oh right, you knew that.