While I was indeed pushing hard for Kid A's lynch yesterday, I wasn't expecting the day to end
quite
so fast. I realize I partially share blame for Reg not being able to put down his last post, but that hammer was pretty sketchy.
I wasn't particularly expecting penguin to die last night. I guess scum caught some mason tell, I was guessing either ffery or Reg would have died should fitz have lived.
Now this brings me to an interesting point: why did scum shoot the probably mason instead of the claimed vig who will shoot tomorrow?
Here is what we do know:
-Fitz almost certainly made the shot on Herself night 1. Regardless if it was mafia shooting or vig shooting, we can be almost certain fitz was the one who shot.
-If fitz is a town vig, we very likely have one of [doctor, roleblocker, jailkeeper] within town's remaining ranks. Being that last night's kill for scum was certainly successful and night 1's scum kill looks dubious (depends on fitz's alignment) I'm guessing that town doesn't have a role blocker. We're probably looking at a doctor.
-Fitz gave his reads in
this post. Scum could have used those reads to decide if they wanted to keep him around another day. If a vig is town or even null reading all the scum, it is actually in their best interest to keep him alive for one more bullet. 2 townies dying tonight would be disastrous, even if we lynch scum today.
-Fitz's role SHOULD be confirmable tonight but he is, at the moment, unconfirmed.
What I gather from this information is that fitz is slightly more likely to be scum having lived the night than he was day 1 FMPoV, however if he is indeed town then his scum reads are probably also town. If fitz dies tonight and flips town (he virtually has to die tonight if he is a vig, as his kill tonight will clear him beyond doubt in everyone's mind) then I'll more or less clear TvK and Wake based on that alone. There's no way in hell scum would have let fitz lived if they felt like he would probably shoot one of them tonight.
We can't lynch fitz today, though, as if he is town he's going to pull the bullet away from more useful players (or leave confirmed town alive, I'm cool with either honestly), and if he's scum we'll know more or less certainly by tomorrow and can happily speedlynch him.
Then, whoa. Wake's claim. 2 masons, an odd night vig, and one shot cop feels like a reasonable town strength, maybe a tad on the strong side (but could easily be balanced by day talk) so that seems to check. The wording, though, claiming "scope" is weird to me. I've never heard a cop called a scope here before, only cop and investigator. This leads me to believe that he doesn't actually have a role PM that says scope. Also, I've been pretty hardcore townreading Ffery and would find it hard to believe she's scum at this point. I've been wrong before, but even so. It is indeed very concerning, because Ffery scum implies that my reads all game have been wrong. I'll need to think more about this.
Wake if you are fake claiming, retract your claim
immediately
or I will go through lengths to ensure I never play with you again. I've never even once seen a VT claiming power role help town at all, and I've seen it cause unnecessary mislynches on no fewer than 2 (and probably more than that) occasions.
I probably fucked this post up, I'm tired as hell and didn't want to wait until the morning to catch up. As a result I don't have the energy to go through and review it for errors and idiocy like I normally do. I apologize if it isn't up to my usual standards of posting.