Mini 1516: Mafia in Space (Game Over)

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Day 3, Votecount 2

fferyllt [1]

Wake88

TvK [0]

My Milked Eek [0]

Regfan [0]

ICEninja [0]

Garmr [1]

TvK

Squirrel Girl [0]

Wake88 [2]

Regfan, fferyllt

havingfitz [0]

Not Voting [5]

- ICEninja, Squirrel Girl, Garmr, havingfitz, My Milked Eek

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is on December 18th at 7:00 PM PST or in (expired on 2013-12-18 19:00:00)

---

V/LA:
Wake88 - Until 12/5/2013 (More LA than V)
My Milked Eek - 12/6 - 12/8

[havingfitz]

@Fitz - why no comment about the Vengeful claim?

I missed it. Who claimed that?

[ICEninja]

OK so there is a fake claim going on here somewhere.

We've got 2 dead and flipped masons. Probably no 3rd mason.
We've got a hard claimed cop with a claimed guilty. He isn't retracting it as a gambit and is willing to see the lynch through, so I'm starting to believe it.
We've got a hard claimed vig with some evidence to support him being a vig and some evidence to support that he isn't.
If fitz is a vig, town probably has a protective role of some kind AND scum probably has a role blocker.

I'm almost positive there is a fake claim here somewhere. IF fitz is telling the truth, that means we have 2 masons + vig + doctor + anything else that may be true. Yikes.

From all of this, I believe that fitz is PROBABLY lying scum. At this point the setup just doesn't make sense if he is telling the truth. I also believe that Wake is PROBABLY telling the truth, despite the fact that I had a scum read on Wake and town read on ffery. It seems virtually impossible that both of them are town UNLESS ffery flips some kind of weird miller.

I thought about this for a little, and we should probably lynch ffery today. If she is indeed scum, we've eliminated a

huge

threat, cleared a scummy town player, and will almost certainly prove that fitz was lying about his vig claim. This is a

lot

to gain. If ffery flips VT, then we have a virtually 100% scum flip on Wake tomorrow (and a virtually 100% confirmable way to prove if fitz is vig or not). Furthermore, having more information about our setup will help us determine Garmr's honesty or lack thereof.

At best we have 2 scum IN THE BAG back to back, and at worst (barring scumbag mod weird miller) we've got 1 scum and forcing scum's NK away from our remaining town threats.

If fitz is telling the truth, we have a LOT less to gain from mislynching him today compared to what we gain from mislynching ffery. Furthermore, lynching Wake isn't a good idea because if he does indeed flip cop and ffery is a weird mason then town autoloses, and I'm not really comfortable risking that.

I'll refrain from voting at the moment until everyone is caught up and given their opinions, but this just makes way too much sense.

Consider this an

unofficial

vote for ffery.

[fferyllt]

If fitz is telling the truth, we have a LOT less to gain from mislynching him today compared to what we gain from mislynching ffery. Furthermore, lynching Wake isn't a good idea because if he does indeed flip cop and ffery is a weird mason then town autoloses, and I'm not really comfortable risking that.

This my cold light of day conclusion as well. Town gets better information from my flip than from Wake's and if I'm a miller then Wake doesn't get lynched tomorrow. I won't self vote about it, though. I can at least provide a full bandwagon for analysis.

In the meanwhile I want to poke through this stuff as thoroughly as possible. So, assume that I am either miller or scum for now. What do you think is going on with fitz/garmr's claims?

In the last mini normal I played I was 1-shot bulletproof town and we had a full doctor. Despite playing a very solid town game I wound up lynched on day 4 mostly because of setup speculation. I'm not totally discounting the possibility of both, but whereas doc/1-shot bulletproof can potentially lengthen a game by fouling up night kills, a nerfed vig and a vengeful both potentially decrease the number of mislynches town gets and that feels wrong to me in this size game.

[ICEninja]

Having both a cop and a vengeful makes more sense than having both a vig and a vengeful. If Wake is lying scum and fitz is telling the truth, I'm going to be inclined to lynch Garmr. If Wake is telling the truth, then fitz is almost certainly lying scum and Garmr will be taken at face value.

It is weird because gut tells me fitz has a higher chance of flipping scum than you, but like I said, running through all the possible scenarios, lynching you today is just the best option. One way or another if fitz is scum he

will

be lynched, then we can derive associative tells from that.

I feel like I just need one dead scum and I can blow this whole game open, and lynching ffery more or less guarantees that we'll have one either today or tomorrow.

Ffery, in case you are town, it would be helpful if you could do a run down of both your reads and to let us know of any associative tells you can pick up on that will help us in finding scum buddies assuming Wake is scum, and then again for fitz.

I have to say, if you're scum you and Empire played brilliantly and its unfortunate for you to have been investigated. I had you two pegged as town by post 62 when you downplayed your own towniness. That last paragraph looked to me like town wanting to avoid a night 1 bullet, and was that townslip I was talking about all of day 1.

If anybody finds fault in my logic or something i missed PLEASE PLEASE point it out to me. I've thought through it several times though and this is the right choice. Speak up if you feel otherwise, but "I think [insert player here] is more likely to be scum" isn't enough. As far as I can see it my plan is close to failproof in getting at least 1 scum lynched over the next 2 days

.

[fferyllt]

@ICEninja Your read was good and it's been a pleasure playing this first game with you.

I hate being mislynched on set-up spec when my actual play doesn't support the setup conclusion.

But, if that's what's going on here I'll flip miller and write this one up to random numbers having it in for me.

But, if I'm VT as my role PM tells me I am, then Wake is either lying town or lying scum.

If Wake is town there is virtually no way that he's an insane or paranoid cop. Not in a normal game. Not as a one-shot. He either isn't a cop or he got an inno on me and doesn't believe the results. If I don't flip miller then he has to die because there's no way to tell lying town from lying scum. Make it happen and I'll spend the rest of the game yelling at him in the dead QT.

I personally value my reads over most of what night actions can tell me because I'm arrogant and I have a probably too-high opinion of my ability to read players. I more often live to regret not following a good read than I do following a bad one. So, if Wake has that kind of track record to back up the decision to claim a false guilty I can at least grasp the sentiment. But, he won't get an opportunity to do this in future games I play. I'll avoid him or lynch him on sight.

If he's scum, then hat's off. It's not that different from the guilty gambit that Angry Pidgeon recently ran to get Thor lynched in the midgame. It set up a scum win even though the next day he was autolynched.

[My Milked Eek]

First off, we need garm to come here and confirm his vengeful claim. We all read that post. We all think it. It needs to be out in the open to make sure that our setup speculation wasn't for nothing. If he was hinting at something else, and I don't mean a role by that but more like a secret action plan, he needs to say so immediately.

There's something bothering me about garm's claim:
The fact that he chose to "out" himself today instead of on his Day 1 wagon. I remember him being all "ok lynch me, go ahead" during Day 1, but he wasn't really concerned with who would hammer him. Again, I'm going from memory, but I don't even remember the slightest hint or provocation to get a hammer from a suspect of his during the peak of his wagon. This doesn't make any sense.

Going over the last few pages one last time before I go in V/LA.

[Garmr]

Nah i'm not really vengeful I just wanted to see TvK reaction I have a history of fake claiming uncommon roles as town.

[Regfan]

I didn't make much of Garmr's vengeful claim, thought it was merely a random joke claim, rightly so it seems.

MME, re; your Post 1465 1) Again it's a case of

I flat out can not see Ffyert being scum here, ever

which means that it's either Wake fakeclaiming or Wake being scum despite there being little scum motivation to fake claim in this position. 2) As for "Why Ffyert" I think he said something like "Garmr, Ffyer is sizing you up" and then the start of D3 interactions is why I'd imagine he would pick her to fake claim on rather than anyone else. 3) Yes, I have seen Empire in hydra's, I've played in hydra's with him too, I know how his mind works and I've reread his ISO a few times throughout the game just to confirm to reaffirm it and his posts here (While quantity wise there isn't a massive amount) are very far away from his scum play. If he's scum here then yes, I've been duped big time and will admit as much if the flip goes that way but I do not think it will.

[Squirrel Girl]

Who do you feel is more likely to be telling the truth? fitz or garmr?

Dunno. I wanna see them dance a bit. Gut says Fitz scum, logic implies Garmr. If I had brilliance I'd probably have claimed a conclusion already.

[Squirrel Girl]

Nah i'm not really vengeful I just wanted to see TvK reaction I have a history of fake claiming uncommon roles as town.

I demand examples.

[Garmr]

example one

where I threaten to kill fferylt in the night phase pretending to be a vig

[Garmr]

the secound one is example two by the way but harder to see

[Garmr]

I demand you follow up SG

[fferyllt]

why did you link to the games instead of to the posts where you made the claims? Are you trying to discourage people from bothering to confirm?

[Squirrel Girl]

example one

where I threaten to kill fferylt in the night phase pretending to be a vig

I don't feel either of these are really that similar.

[Garmr]

@fferylt the opposite I am to lazy

@Squirrel girl if you don't feel there that similar that's fine

[Squirrel Girl]

What did you learn from your gambit?

[Squirrel Girl]

I mean, *other* than that I'm the only player really reading the game.

[ICEninja]

If he's scum, then hat's off. It's not that different from the guilty gambit that Angry Pidgeon recently ran to get Thor lynched in the midgame. It set up a scum win even though the next day he was autolynched.

My gut tells me this is exactly what is going on, and that there are only 2 town threats remaining to prevent them from closing this game out, and feel like Wake was going to be lynched

anyway

so they may as well do their very best to bring one of the two scary town players left (then nightkill the other who at this point is probably either Reg or myself).

Logic says scum this game aren't brilliant enough to come up with an endgame plan that clean, especially if it involves sacrificing one of their own, and that you're scum who did a

really really

good job of being town, and either made specific moves to convince Reg that you're town or that you two are scum buddies.

Actually as a matter of fact I recall being super paranoid about both Street and Reg being scum together, so if Wake is telling the truth then I feel like the entire team is probably ffery, fitz, and Regfan. If Wake is scum, I have no clue really. I'll have to read through shit to decide. Memo to self, do this before today's lynch in case I'm the night kill.

Garmr, you're retarded. Stop that shit. At least now I feel a bit better between exactly one of Wake and fitz being scum. 2 masons + weak vig + doc vs. scum team with day talk and role blocker is

slightly

town heavy but within reason, to my understanding. It is also entirely possible that we have a weak doctor as well. 2 masons + weak cop vs. 3 goons with day talk also tracks. 2 masons + weak cop + weak vig is a pretty damn strong town, and scum would need both day talk and MULTIPLE roles to counterbalance that, or some stupid shit like unaware miller (which I honestly hope isn't the case, but even if it is I'll forgive our mod because he's been absolutely fantastic in every other way).

Logic says ffery, Reg, fitz scum team. If Wake is scum I'll throw out something like...Wake, TvK, MME or something like that (though something is nagging me that it can't be that combo, I'll look through it more thoroughly later this week).

[Garmr]

Garmr, you're retarded. Stop that shit.

Ok I will stop trolling but only because it's you.

[Squirrel Girl]

What did you learn from your gambit?

[Garmr]

@SG
That regefan didn't believe it and still reads me as town.

You jump on to it and you seem to be going nuts.

Eek is being overly aggressive over this situation and the wake situation it looks like his trying to take charge of both.

Fferylt believed my fake claim was more real than fitzs odd night vig.

Fitz is not paying attention to the game state as long as he isn't the main concern

Ice is on the ball still and considering things from all angles.

[Garmr]

Those are the 6 things. Pick one for to go indepth about.

[Squirrel Girl]

What reads did you get out of the info you have?