Mini 1516: Mafia in Space (Game Over)

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Day 3, Votecount 3

fferyllt [1]

Wake88

TvK [0]

My Milked Eek [0]

Regfan [0]

ICEninja [0]

Garmr [1]

TvK

Squirrel Girl [0]

Wake88 [2]

Regfan, fferyllt

havingfitz [0]

Not Voting [5]

- ICEninja, Squirrel Girl, Garmr, havingfitz, My Milked Eek

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is on December 18th at 7:00 PM PST or in (expired on 2013-12-18 19:00:00)

---

V/LA:
Wake88 - Until 12/5/2013 (More LA than V)
My Milked Eek - 12/6 - 12/8

[fferyllt]

Garmr interactions with living players

DAY 1

39 First post, first vote. Claims

SG

is setting up future sheeping. Noting this because scum sometimes tend to vote other scum first during the RVS phase. This interaction continues through 53, 55, 58, 63 - where he unvotes her and votes

Orestes/Silverbard.

49 - defends banksys from

ICeninja

,

Street/fferyllt

. characterizes both heads as "powerhouses".
63 - after Empire asks for reasoning he claims to have meta'd both. 139 - revisits, expresses suspicion of Street for not following up further

162 - defends

Street/fferyllt

to

SG

for not saying more about their banksys read/vote.

183 - cordial invitation to share views, discounts the FoSes/cases on RVS votes on

fitz'

231 - willing to vote

fitz

or

orestes

(fitz willingness based on herself case)

weak trajectory - no interaction with fitz between 183 and this

271 - townread of

regfan

373 - some reads.

SG

good.

ICEninja

good.

MME

willing to wagon day 1, mentions

TSO/PA

wagon doesn't want to go there because similar to another game.

Herself, Street

willing to vote day 2.
376 - Lynch willingness order:

Orestes/Silverbard, MME, TSO/PA

379 - Moves vote to

MME

(

decent trajectory

391 -

TVK

case actively seeking town cred. 393 denies this case is a reach.
418 - reacts to

lolwagon's/PA's

concerns
428 - to

SG

, he planned to get rid of lurkers and then go after

fitz

on day 2.
448 - "When I am scum I take great pride in my ability to distance myself from others and the ability to survive" - check for who he doesn't interact with much. So far...TVK.
487 - gives [post=Wake]Wake[/post] a townspot for posts 473 and 479
492 - defends against Wake.
511 agrees with

TvK

that Silver Bard's Herself read looks weird
536 Denies

MME's

accusation that he's buddying

SG

. MME's accusation revolves around the nickname. He claims that he's trying to work to get consensus on a lynch.

The quoted post doesn't really support his defense

.
560 - first formal reads list (was prompted by Silver Bard)
565 - questions

TvK

about read, points out they have similar reads on other players, why is TvK null/scumming him?
568 - points out to

fitz

that all his scum reads have scum reads on him. In 573 he responds to fitz accusation he's following a crap case. 593 continues the argument.
620 - more argument with

fitz

and

Wake

- this shows that he's wading into nearly every hot spot on day 1.
626 - more argument with

fitz

, and shows first signs of making a move to

MME

.
628 - pushes

MME

wagon.
661 - catches

fitz

in a contradiction (suggests not scum with fitz)
665 -

MME

case (first real case he built himself really) 667, 676, 683 He's run up along with Fitz and MME. Seems ok with his lynch, which feels town to me.
724 - Answers a

Wake

wall of questions
752 - votes fitz
755 - scumhunts his wagon. continues in his ISO through 798 where he unvotes fitz.
801 - with fitz scum he scumpiles

Silverbard

and

TvK

. Votes

TvK

810 - takes closer look at SilverBard.
816 - switches vote to SilverBard

DAY 2

889 - posts a case for SG being herself's mason buddy.

This is literally one of the worst posts in this game thread. STOP THIS SHIT.

900 - TvK strongest scum read.

WHY DIDN'T THIS HAPPEN???

919 - quotewalls - notables are TvK and MME.
925 - reads list. scum were in TvK, KidA (with associatives for MME and Reg - Reg scum if KidA flips scum, MME scum if KidA flips town).
972 - post to Wake
995 - two top town reads are now at each others throats (Wake, SG)
1008 - Kid A noticed an assumed herself breadcrumb, Garmr jumps on him.

This is another why the fuck are people pointing this shit out post You were wrong, but WHAT IF YOU HAD BEEN RIGHT?

1140 - sudden reversal on Wake for (snerk) rolefishing. Hypocrisy thy name is Garmr.
1218 - TvK back on the scum list.
1309 - moves back to Kid A
1323 - jokes about hammering

Day 3

This is so fresh I'm not going to review it. He's gone back, like a dog to its vomit to MME and will pick up right back here most likely on day 4.

This was a town ISO. A horrible, fucked up town ISO. It's like he is distracted by any shiny object. He posts totally irrelevant crap about other games, pokemon, etc., and he can't hold a case in his head for any length of time before he goes chasing after TOWN again - Kid A and MME.

This is my message to you, Garmr. You are town. And you are playing terribly this game. TERRIBLY. Your choices tomorrow are fitz, Wake and TvK. If you touch Eek or Reg I will rise up from the grave, find where you live and leave a flaming paper bag full of ectoplasmic dogshit on your front doorstep. So don't fuck up again. Make my mislynch count. If I flip miller, fitz has ONE acceptable target on night 3 -

TvK

. If I don't flip miller then there are TWO acceptable vig kills. TvK and Wake. Nobody else. Hold him accountable.

Comprende?

[fferyllt]

I'm sure my next analysis will descend to diatribe as well. Don't feel singled out.

[Garmr]

If you are miller like you posted then i will go for tvk if you are scum straight back to mme because you told me not to.

[fferyllt]

I don't know if I'm miller. I know for a fact that I'm town.

[Garmr]

well I promise anyway.

[fferyllt]

I'm going to try and treat this game as a puzzle to solve. I'm on my own. I won't be here for the next moves on the board, but I can do my best to predict what happens next. I can't do it in a vacuum though, I'll need interactions and I'll need people to tell me when I've ventured too far into tinfoil hat territory.

I'm going to start with possible scumteams.

These are the scenarios I can envision.

- fitz is vig, wake is town cop with a genuine guilty results (I'm miller)
- fitz is vig, wake is town cop with an inno result he doesnt believe (thinks I'm godfather)
- fitz is vig, wake is vanilla town
- fitz is vig, wake is scum
- fitz is scum, wake is town cop with a genuine guilty results (I'm miller)
- fitz is scum, wake is town cop with an inno result he doesnt believe (thinks I'm godfather)
- fitz is scum, wake is vanilla town
- fitz is scum, wake is scum

Excluding fitz and wake:

My town reads: Reg, ICE, SG, MME, Garmer

My my scum read: TvK

That's right. One scum read outside of fitz and wake. So, either fitz and wake are both scum, or I have scum in my town reads. I'm going to start by assuming the former.

I'm mislynched. Fitz (or somebody on the scum team) shoots town.

Right now we are probably 6-3.

Two town down means tomorrow we are at 4-3 and it's LYLO with fitz-scum, wake-scum, Scum x and 4 town.

What if Wake is town and fitz is scum?

Wake will be alive tomorrow most likely and a "universal" town read will be dead instead. And we are at 4-3 with fitz-scum, Scum x, Scum y, wake-town, and 3 town.

What if fitz is town and wake is scum?

town-fitz knows I'm miller. What should he do? Hold fire? shoot into the non-wake players trying to hit scum? (If yes - TVK PLEASE). If he shoots then there could be 2 kills unless he shoots the same player scum go for or we have a protective role that gets lucky. Worst case if he shoots is 3-3 and game over. Best case is 4-2. Worst case if he holds fire is 4-3. Best case, protective role if it exist gets lucky and tomorrow is 5-3.


Remaining scenarios:

I flip vanilla town. Should town-fitz assume that wake is scum, or that wake is town? He could be either.

Based purely on combinations, fitz comes up scum in 3 out of 4 and wake comes up scum in 1 out of 4. This actually matches the strength of my reads on both of them at the end of day 2 pretty well.

If fitz is scum there is a zero chance that he will hold his fire tonight. And a 100% chance he will hit town.

If he's town, then those percentages are indeterminate and it depends on what he thinks town's chances of a win are if he shoots and hits town vs not shooting at all.

So:

I flip VT
fitz is town
Wake is unknown

What should fitz do on night 3?

Let's talk about this.

If fitz is scum then he's gonna do what he's gonna do and that is out of town's hands but worst case tomorrow starts at 4-3, not 3-3.

[fferyllt]

Based purely on combinations, fitz comes up scum in 3 out of 4 and wake comes up scum in 1 out of 4.

The above is wrong. It's fitz 1 out of 2 and wake 1 out of 4 combinations where they are scum.

[ICEninja]

If ffery is a miller, Wake is town and setup speculation says fitz is scum. Should Wake be telling the truth

and

two people die tonight, that means fitz is town and scum EITHER shot Herself n1 (overlap of shooting) or didn't shoot anyone n1 (to frame fitz or because of severe derpage, I've seen scum derpage happen before).

I simply do not buy that town has 2 masons, a weak cop, a weak vig, and any role that would have prevented a death n1.

If ffery flips VT then I'm fairly confident fitz is a vig and needs to shoot Wake. The doctor (assuming we have one) should protect him and claim day 4, giving us two confirmed town and a dead scum, giving us a very real chance at taking this home.

[ICEninja]

I'll look more at ffery's analysis when I'm a bit less bleary-eyed and see how well it tracks.

[fferyllt]

If I am a miller and fitz is town then it comes down to who outside of fitz/wake to shoot. And my recommendation is TvK.

If I am VT, and Wake is town AND fitz is town then Wake has basically boned his own team and town will lose if fitz shoots Wake OR assumes Wake is an idiot and shoots someone else who happens to be town.

Assume fitz is town. Is it better for him to assume Wake is scum or that Wake is town and an idiot?

Which scenario doesn't leave a chance of a town losing before Day 4 starts?

[ICEninja]

I suppose. I'll come back fresher tomorrow. Also, I'm pretty sure you mean outside of TvK/Wake to shoot.

[fferyllt]

I guess the other piece of the puzzle is who else is scum if Wake or fitz is town.

And that means looking at my townpile:

If I were going to separate them in to tiers it would look something like this:

"Inviolate town" - Reg, ICE, SG.

"Other town" - MME, Garmr

But, if I listen to my gut and think...who has played the closest to cool, flawless games with no missteps and no crazy stuff?

I had Reg in that group, but I have to wonder about his vote on Wake. I mean, I KNOW I'm town.

But, if this game had come down to Wake claiming a guilty on Herself I'd tear my hair out for a while and then say no fucking way, Wake is lying or they are miller. And I'd take the third path and put my vote on my top pick for scum.

ICEninja has played really well. He doesn't know me. He doesn't know Empire as far as I know. He probably can't have that level of conviction about a town read. And he is trying to solve the game - and working on the knotty part.

SG has played a strong, defensive and offensive game. Any hint of a raised eyebrow in her direction and she comes out with all guns blazing. That may be a personal style. She has also worked the various edges of this issue today, particularly the Garmr/Fitz bit. And she hasn't really opined on the knotty part. She sat back with popcorn to watch how it unfolds. Which is also kinda how she approached the kid a/TvK wagons. Kid A is the stronger looking wagon. Sit on it and "Convince me".

If fitz or Wake are town, then SG is my pick for "hider" scum. With a secondary concern about Reg preferring a potential Wake mislynch to my mislynch rather than going for where his conviction lies.

[fferyllt]

I suppose. I'll come back fresher tomorrow. Also, I'm pretty sure you mean outside of TvK/Wake to shoot.

Actually I meant who outside of Wake.

[fferyllt]

I'm not afraid, Regfan, given that you provided Ffery the knowledge about my fake Doc claim in KA's C9++ game. I have about 1500 posts total on MS. Ffery never played in my C9++ game, yet so quickly she found that one post in over a thousand. Guess who's here who played in that game with me and was there and knew all about it vividly? You. Scum have Daytalk. Ffery is Scum. You are her Scum partner who informed her so quickly through Daytalk of that one past event, which allowed her to try and mount a very fast defense.

I get links all the particularly notable games from MS players who meta ALL the games: mostly Empire and Cabd. I read parts of your C9++ before the game started. It took me a short while to find it because I had forgotten that Kingdom Aces was the mod, but a quick search through your completed games looking for Matias in the player list turned it up. Because I did remember the smackdown Matias laid on you.

You kind of gave me chills on day 2 with your back and forth questions - first suspicious and then appealing to me for help and advice - and then telling Garmr I was coming for him on day 3. I expected you to attack me today. I didn't expect you to lie about a guilty, though.

A part of me really hopes that I flip miller. It won't change the fact that I'll probably avoid playing with you in the future. But it will change the lengths to which I will go to avoid playing with you.

[fferyllt]

I linked your ISO to that game in the thread already in Post 1010? I'm not the only person who's read it. SG has and given Ffyerts attention to meta I'd say she'd have from that too but if you really want to keep this up then you can enjoi rope.

You better be scum here because if you're not I don't want to see you around this site again,

ever.

Unvote, Vote: Wake

If the votes started to flow Wake's way, would you really be willing to potentially throw the game on the distinct possibility that he's

town

and faked a guilty?

When all is said and done, I am not. I doubt that town can pull this out, but I always play to my win condition to the best of my ability. Though my wincon sometimes has a few personal modifiers not in my role PM.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: TvK

[Garmr]

I don't want a repeat of of mini 1499 where scum managed to hammer the joat. Your going to be the lynch today fferylt unless wake admits it's a gambit. This could cost the game if we misplay now.

[fferyllt]

If I were trying to shake the lynch your comment might have relevance.

I'm trying to explore the game's scenarios, and leave town in better shape than I was able to leave the on a boat town. And I'm putting my vote where I feel certain scum is.

[Garmr]

I just don't want to make the same mistake there that i did here. Anyway I am going to treat every game after this like a scum game. I seem much more useful when i have a scum mindset and i pick up things better. So expect a meta shift.

[fferyllt]

No you're going to make a totally different mistake in this game.

TBH your town game hasn't impressed me so far. This will be the second time you're in on the lynch of obvtown-me. And I don't think I can help salvage this game though I'll continue to do my best. In all likelihood I'll flip VT, not miller, and then you have Wake's idiocy to deal with if he's town.

Why don't you stop making excuses for lynching me and look over my scenarios. If fitz is town, what should he do on night 3?

[Garmr]

Shoot you oh i get what your saying. I actually came up with a guarented way to win on the boat as well but that sheep has sailed.

[Garmr]

ship*

[fferyllt]

If you don't have something to say about post 1531 or 1537 then go find some other game to screw up.

[Garmr]

Ok it's your show then.

[TvK]

What if this one scenario you didn't seem to take into account happened, ffery? That one where I am actually town?