Mini 1537: ATTACK ON TITAN (Game Over!)

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why did it take you this long to come up with your reasoning?

[BROseidon]

I think I see what you're driving at, muffin.

You aren't be the only player in this game that knows that I'm easy to push, you're just the only one who can't deny it.

Gonna correct myself, Tammy also can't reasonably deny it.

Anyone else could spend 5 minutes counting shit on my wiki and seeing that I have a scummy town game.

[ActionDan]

Why did it take you this long to come up with your reasoning?

I 'came up' with it immediately that's why I voted you. I could have explained it as I quoted you. But I didn't feel like it. reactions point towards town not being a particularly discerning bunch or else not interested in details that don't immediately concern them. However you happen to be discerning. I can tell. and that's why I was interested in seeing if you could identify your own error. I might have believed your explanation had you done so immediately but instead you could not do better than to vote me even though I pinpointed the exact location of the egress.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Your case is predicated on me making an "error." There was no "error" to identify. Your argument is mispremised.

[ActionDan]

there certainly was an inconsistency that you should have been self-conscious of that could be construed as an "error".

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I dropped a line of questioning when I didn't see a reason to continue moving onto another one which I believed would be more productive. That is not an "inconsistency."

Explain the town-motivation in being self-conscious.

[pitoli]

VOTECOUNT 1.3

Kazekirimaru (1)

: Brian Skies

ActionDan (1)

: F-16

Pieguyn (1)

: BROseidon

Kagami (1)

: Paschendale

F-16_Fighting_Falcon (3)

: Mykonian, ActionDan, Kazekirimaru

Paschendale (3)

: Plum, Kagami, Tammy

BROseidon (3)

: Pieguyn, Bert, zMuffinMan

Not Voting (0)

:

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2014-01-16 00:00:00)

Mod Comments: Let me know of any errors in the count.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

BRO, thoughts on ActionDan based on his recent posts?

[Tammy]

Why did it take you this long to come up with your reasoning?

I 'came up' with it immediately that's why I voted you. I could have explained it as I quoted you. But I didn't feel like it. reactions point towards town not being a particularly discerning bunch or else not interested in details that don't immediately concern them. However you happen to be discerning. I can tell. and that's why I was interested in seeing if you could identify your own error. I might have believed your explanation had you done so immediately but instead you could not do better than to vote me even though I pinpointed the exact location of the egress.

Have you ever played with falcon? He asks a lot of questions at the start of the game. In empires last mini normal he drew heat for exactly what you're calling him scum for. People can drop a line of questioning if something else comes up. I think you're reaching and blowing this out of proportion.

[Tammy]

Okay well Dan's scum read on falcon feels more like he's chastising him for improper question procedure, but his read on kaze feels town oriented. Particularly the part about him being a mislynch not happening on his watch. Reminds me of how he talked about shadoweh in the wire.

The broseidon / pie clash feels like a big misunderstanding that got blown out of proportion. I just looked through his posts in the fast and furious game, so I'm gonna follow falcons town read there. I started to read ny165, but I'm tired, so maybe tomorrow.

[Tammy]

Apparently the phrase of the evening is blown out of proportion, and I'm gonna sleep with the temporary peace of just being happy it's not me this time :p

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Tammy, so far I am thinking Plum, Kagami, Bert, and Pie are town. What do you think of Brian Skies so far?

[mykonian]

Myko - Could you just speak clearly and out with it? Your prolonging this thing about the falcon scum read and acting all secretive about it isn't helping. And I can't tell if I find you suspicious because I really think you're suspicious or because you're just irritating the hell out of me.

Hey, now you know how that feels as well I know we simply don't mesh well, Tammy.

Anyway, it's a basic early game play. It helps to see if some people see what you see without giving them the whole argument. On the other hand, it's awkward to defend against, and that helps giving a read. This is what we see here. F-16 lashes out, basically. To dan and I, who both approach the same way. See F-16's responses. First "you don't know me, we haven't played, you are wrong" till the last post I got till now that says "I never made a post like this as scum or town, show me one". This one is key.

F-16 never made a post like that because it's a weird one. Already said it, it doesn't fit, and if f-16 had been town he'd rather make a different post. Since this is basically a catch up post which don't get read, I'll get to it in the next one.

idk, it was late, and I wanted to have a post out but couldn't actually get my mind going. So I wrote up what I thought of the playerlist. Get acquainted, I guess. Also, I'm aware I might not always be the most easy person, and some of the people playing were in recent games... might help to tell them what I think without playing the game yet. Avoid the worst about it this game, I guess.

So there wasn't any intention off of it; nothing you were trying to gauge or push?

Oh, it's a post so there might be responses. Or not. At least you knew I was in the game and of who of you I still had a memory. I wasn't really in any state to do more than that at that moment, but it was a post and it had something to do with the game, so why not make it.

[mykonian]

Here we go. Anyway, want to remind you again, last piece of defense F-16 made was "I never made a post like that, you say it's scum, find me a scumgame where I made such a post". This is key, because it's indeed a post that doesn't get made by people unless something is going on. It took 12 pages now and only kaze comes with a vague "welll maybe I know what you are talking about but idk", so this is going to be hella exciting. Tammy's response was "I've seen f-16 make such analysis before". I suspected that, although I didn't know.

flavor doesn't determine alignment, which means that especially given annie's alignment in series was left unresolved annie's alignment in game could be just about anything

however roles should come from flavor and I'd expect smth like miller would

@F-16:

what made you sure on Bert-town? especially considering you said you don't trust early miller claims especially from someone like him. I still don't get the "weak" and there's still a chance annie as a character could be outright mafia based on the statement about flavor. did I miss smth 0.0

My "

I don't trust early miller claims

" was bait for Brian to see what he would do. In another game, Brian claimed miller and got lynched. Scum were both pushing on him. I felt that if Brian was town, he would sympathize with Bert and defend him. His 43 fits that theory although it is matched with a good amount of paranoia as shown in 64.

Bert is a weaker townread based on his claim. I know Bert quite well now and he doesn't strike me as the gambiting scum type. He is very good at faking his town meta and paranoia as scum, and as such wouldn't want to risk being exposed. Also, Pitoli had a miller in her previous game so I wouldn't find it an odd role coming from Pitoli. I still need more interaction with Bert and for him to clarify what "weak" is supposed to mean in order to solidify that read.

Okay, so I read through Pitoli's last game and saw that Brian Skies immediately claimed miller upon entering the game.

I thought it would be interesting to analyze the reactions there to here.

Mini 1501: We're on a Boat

1) Grimgroove

YYR

- Doesn't vote the miller but picks up on a different scummy player (Aeronaut) and votes him instead.

2) notscience - Says that miller claims are absolutely null and WIFOM but is convinced enough to vote Brian upon CDB's request.

3) Yates

ChannelDelibird

- CDB asks in post 17 why Brian is acting as if claiming miller will allow him to live for a while. The motivation is a push for a information and potentially a lynch that day. In hindsight this appears to be a town motivation.

4) fferyllt - fferyllt picks up on something that Brian said about dying anyways and then inquires about it. The notable point is that she wants to know why Brian is thinking the way he does and tries to understand his thought process.

5) Albert B. Rampage

SleepyKrew

Aeronaut

- Says nothing about the miller claim but votes Brian.

6) CrashTextDummie - Lynch all D1 miller claims!

7) Garmr - "

Everyone seems to be claiming miller these days maybe it's a new meta rolling in.

" No engagement at all with the claim. There is also a lack of opportunism or jump onto the wagon. Speaks more to the skill of the player as opposed to alignment.

8) LolWagons

Smudger

- Smudger never played in a game with one before.

9) Peabody

Kazekirimaru

- Kaze in post 27 says he is not sure how to feel about the miller claim and says that it could be coming from town or faking scum. There is a lot of caution that is expressed here. Says later that miller claims in general are not null in post 62.

10)

Empire

Maestro

- Maestro says "

lol D1 Millerclaim, u so cute. I'll post later when I care.

" - This post shows comfort in the assumption that a miller claim is nothing of concern while not caring about much else. Empire initially hedges on the miller claim in his first post but in his initial reads list (ISO him), he lists Brian as one of his suspects and takes issue with the presentation of the miller claim.

11) Plum - Plum comes into the thread much after the miller wagon has formed and had been talked about. She takes an interesting stance of "

Three acceptances of he Miller claim as legit in a row. Huh. Personally am of the Llamafluff school of first-post Miller claims, and there are a good few I'd lynch before Brian on scumminess merit.

" in her first post. Then she starts attacking people for believing the miller claim.

12) SpyreX - Says that the miller claim is legit and jumps onto Aero. Says that scum would be opportunistic about it. Since he was the SK, I am not entirely sure if he was scumhunting or just pretending to.

---

Out of the players here, I found Plum's stance the most townish on a gut level. She seems to be very inquisitive and wants to find out more information about the miller and asks Bert questions to figure out whether he is town. As scum in the Boat game, she seemed very evasive about Brian's game and seemed to sweep it under the rug and started attacking people for believing the miller claim without actually being inquisitive and probing for more information so she could figure it out. She also spent a lot more time justifying her stance "Lllamafluff school of thought" etc.

I found Kaze's initial reaction scummy becuase he was a lot more cautious to a previous miller claim. However, his insistence in the Boat game that a miller claim is not null followed by his push on Bert here actually makes a lot more sense as town because he seems to have differing reactions based on each claim. He doesn't believe that it is actually null, and in this game, he seems to believe that it is scummy. Kaze, I would like to know what your reasons are and how you differentiate the miller claims.

Bolded one line, cause I want to answer to it. He thinks it's interesting to analyse the reactions of a previous game to a miller claim. Okay... The link is three players and that the mod is the same.

Now, this is page four. What sensible person would put a rather big amount of effort into doing analysis on a different game that early, with that little to gain? Basically, his analysis does very little only put a little bit of doubt on kaze, and F-16 is very passive with the last paragraph as well. It's big effort, low gain, but damn it looks nice.

If a town would have had to make a post in the same spot, he'd comment on

this

game. He wouldn't put a huge effort post that soon into the game because his information still was limited, and in 20 pages he might gain more from a comparison between playstyles in both games, not after 4 pages here. He wouldn't basically put more time in that game then the one he's in

after 4 pages

.

That's why that post stands out so much, first regardless of player. It's an effort post that comes way too soon, it's showing off while doing very little. F-16 pushed kaze again just 2 pages ago and he doesn't mention this post anymore, where he's analysing kaze and comes out with a negative result. And I've seen F-16 now a couple of games, and this is not how he starts out. If anything, F-16's early game is characterized by timidity, he's always watching the game rather then doing stuff till very late in the day compared to other players. The post doesn't make sense for a general townie, and it doesn't make sense for f-16.


It would make a lot of sense if f-16 is aware he makes analysis posts more often (which is why I'm glad someone recognizes that, because I hadn't seen him make such a one), and that it "fits his meta". It might fit his meta, but the timing is way off. It's a scummy post and it really stands out as such. Which is why halfway my first catchup (since you posted 6 pages in the time I slept then, I think), I already thought that there wouldn't appear a better vote in the next 4 pages. It really is that big.

[Brian Skies]

Kagami was actively looking to get other players to claim. Lack of a weak signifier means PR abilities. Kagami not only sought to get people to claim having abilities, but also asserted that only town could have it. She pretended that it was the usual weak like a weak doctor, despite apparently knowing that it is not. She pushed for more discussion and claims over it. Everyone who replied "what do you mean, weak miller?" outed themselves as a PR. But they would not have if she hadn't revealed what it actually meant. I think it is far more likely that she or part of the scum team is a goon and has the weak modifier, hence how they know what it means. They're the only ones who get to see multiple PMs.

It looked like simple rolefishing until page 5, where she was just asking more weak people to claim, back when everyone thought that weak was the town-signifying modifier that it usually is. Then she revealed what it really means, and I (foolishly) hesitated. But after a little more thought, it looks like a deliberate attempt to get people to reveal that they are not weak before they understood the significance.

The explanation of what the modifier really meant gave me pause, but now I feel much more certain.

VOTE: Kagami

Are you her partner, Plum?

Can you point out the rolefishing from her iso? Because it doesn't really look like she was doing it to me. If anything, it looks like she was trying to move away from it.

hmm. Mod stepping in, but I think that goes either way. It's usually a bad sign. But I think I have to give pitoli the benefit of the doubt here. Maybe she would rather put that sentence out if bert is indeed town and we confirm him without intended reason, but on the other hand, I don't know pitoli well enough to say she wouldn't pity town "confirming" scum as town under false assumptions.

I can understand that the timing of the comment from the mod is weird, but all I got out of it is her trying to tell us to "stop trying to break the game and fucking play it."

I have seen f-16 before, a couple of times now. I think I've started to get a feel for the guy. Possibly maybe. I think that's the first place we should look.

I only have one game experience with F-16. We were both town and he read me as scum the whole time (but townread me through meta). I think he can be an extremely valuable player if he's town though, and I agree that sorting him early can be valuable.

also, plum is scum

Vote: Plum

bro might be scum, too. and kaze

I'm curious about each of these reads and if you think they're tied together in some way.

I'm also rather curious about the plum mumblings. How many of you know her?

I have 1 game with her. I claimed miller, wasn't having a great game and ended up lurking for part of it, scum-plum jumps on me for "lurking." I might have to go back through that game and reassess what actually happened, but imo, she and Empire got caught out early and she couldn't mitigate the damage in time.

guys, does anyone of you know plum?

I don't understand why this question is so important. Even if we did know her, there's no guarantee we'd be able to pick up on whatever it is that's tipping you off to her alignment.

what are your thoughts about Pasch?

I don't like his push on Kagami, but that's because Kagami's actions look different to me. I think Kagami comes out better.

I don't believe the scum faction is "Shape-shifter", by the way. I think I've seen the idea kicked around a bit in the thread. I don't think it is so.

I don't think it is either. I think it's probably "Titan" with a possibility of a shape-shifter helping them. We already know that the scum were equipped with fake-claims (or they are now after the mod's announcement).

Bert is town because

-he seems very genuinely confused about the weak thing
-his posts read like a bewildered townie

-I don't think scum would get a weak fake-claim with only one other weak player
-Since scum have been given fake-claims, why would they be given "Weak Human Miller" of all things?

I bolded the parts I agree with. The reason why I think Bert is likely town is that I've seen his play over the past few months. No offense intended, but his recent play hasn't been that strong and I think, without a doubt in my mind, that he would claim outright if he actually received that role.

F-16 is scum because he is and and tammy is in the game.

=/

I fear that one, how annoying it is, is his meta. He doesn't feel like changing it or he enjoys abusing it as scum. Ticked me off before as well.

This actually sounds like it's describing me. But I don't remember every playing with you, so who are you referring to?

also, dan is town. Obvious, even, I think.

I don't know about obvious, but I have a townread on him (the comment about F-16 and Tammy makes me unsure though).

I am aware that Brian got mislynched as miller and knew full well that he wasn't going to fall for "wanna lynch this guy for fake-claiming." Knowing this, why are you acting as if I am being opportunistic?

Okay, I missed this before, but I decided to revisit it because it just occurred to me. If you knew I wasn't going to fall for it, how does it work as a test to get a read on me?

this doesn't really feel like town kaze.

I agree. I need to see more though, because I remember not liking him in Rows and Columns (and he was town there).

the beauty of alts. Also, read a couple of other games last time for exactly the same reason as dan is voting you right now.

Hmmm. I think I

might

know who you are. Not sure yet.

@Bro: Are you seriously using an abbreviation for my username as an excuse to make a push on another player? Zzzzz.

Dan is voting me because he is probably scum.

This is a terrible argument. Town vote town all the time. You legitimately thought I was scum in Mentor/Mentee and we were both town.

BRO, thoughts on Mykonian and Dan?

They're both being coy (I've already looked ahead though). Dan is town (I've already looked ahead to see his concern). Not quite sure on Myko, having second thoughts on who I think it is because the first post from that slot doesn't match up.

but I don't get the impression that we have a lot of gambit-happy players.

I do it sometimes. You even saw it in AG with my entrance post! I also tried to do one in Mismatched. Didn't work so well.

I'm pretty sure I remember empire telling me that Plum isn't very confident in her scum game. (I don't have my chat logs with him anymore, so don't quote me on this). But, she's comfortable with her town game, so I think that she'd be less likely to offer to take a leadership position as scum.

Oh, I remember reading something similar to this in the game (either Scum QT or post-chat or something).

It seems far more likely to me that he suspected Brian in the first place, saw a way to test him, and did.

Interesting thought. I remember him scum-reading me for most of Mentor/Mentee for my in-game actions, but town-read me through meta. So I DO think Falcon would fall back to using some sort of meta ploy to get a read on me. I also remember Bert saying something about him being able to fake meta-reads as scum though. Anyhow, I haven't seen Falcon as scum yet, so I don't know what to look for.

Mykonian, *twitches, cracks neck and knuckles* doesn't explain in Post 198 he rather challenges Kaze to see it.

I'm loving how this sounds like it should get Myko some inkling of a townread, but Tammy still refuses to give one out.

which everyone else seems completely disinterested in; and nobody else pointed out his misinterpreting my post/other people agreed with it, which is something I should go back and look at again

Sorry, not enough time to go back and read your interactions thoroughly. I'll re-read them when I get back. Current opinion: I think Pie comes out better because some of the aspects of your argument seem overplayed. Anyhow, Tammy makes some comments about the discussion in your favor, so I want to go back and check later to see if I'm in the wrong.

*Since I'm revisiting the interactions later anyways and I don't particularly like where they're going with them, I'm skipping Bro vs Pie related posts.

I laid out all the reasons why both Mykonian and ActionDan were playing anti-town and scummy and they responded with "don't let scum cajole you" or were busted as having no case.

I think Dan is town. Myko less town because he's just kind of piggybacking the argument.

F-16 is scum because after this post he never touched this again. He was clearly needling Brian Skies before this and this particular post does not give a sufficient answer to F-16's question.

The question, paraphrased, that F-16 asks Brian is, why is Brian concerned about Pie putting Brian in Pie's town block when Pie also has F-16 (who is scummy to Brian) in his town block. Brian's answer misinterprets the question and assumes Brian was put into F-16's town block also. If F-16 was particularly concerned about this line of inquiry, he would have continued it. It drops completely after post #26.

F-16 has had ample opportunity to look over this since I quoted it again but still didn't pick up on it. That's telling. He thinks it's history, done and over with, and can't remember why it was important to him... which means it never was.

And this is why I think Dan is town. I was unsure of what the question meant, was a bit bothered by Falcon dropping it because I didn't think I answered it correctly, but assumed I did because Falcon did drop it. However, I don't think this makes Falcon scum.

thoughts on ActionDan based on his recent posts?

I know you might not like it, but my read on Dan says town.

What do you think of Brian Skies so far?

That guy is town.

*Long post from Myko regarding post 92. Immediate opinion: Feels town-motivated and the logic in the post makes sense. It resonates with me because this was how ProHawk caught me as scum in Cash Cabd (a lot of effort early on for towncred, made sure town knew what I was doing, was more subconscious than actually intended).

VOTE: F-16

V/LA until Wednesday

Will post when I can.

[zMuffinMan]

someone put f16 at l-1 and i'll quickhammer. go

[zMuffinMan]

It's an effort post that comes way too soon

tbh, even though people keep talking about #92, i haven't bothered to read it til now. agree with this. could maybe see this coming a little later after more people had posted, but it was way too early

[mykonian]

I think Dan is town. Myko less town because he's just kind of piggybacking the argument.

Lets be clear about this one, I'm not. I think Dan thinks correctly, but that the thing he's voting f-16 for is normal for f-16. It ticked me off before as well, I know it's scummy in general, but the tell doesn't work for F-16. All it tells me is that Dan is looking at the game in a way that I can understand and that's town.

I don't understand why this question is so important. Even if we did know her, there's no guarantee we'd be able to pick up on whatever it is that's tipping you off to her alignment.

ok, I don't know plum all that well and you can think what you want of the next little piece of text.

I think mafia is a social game. I don't think we are nice little logical machines who try to find scum and lynch them. Because that would imply we'd lynch everybody equally, depending on reads, which we clearly don't. We lynch some people more, some people less, and part of that has to do with social groups etc. Or in simple words, we are less likely to lynch someone we like, feel more paranoid about someone we know, but on the other hand we do keep back from outright lynching them (why else would paranoia be so powerful in those cases). You can agree with me or not in that case. Now, as far as I can see, plum used to fall squarely in the "liked" catagory. Nice person etc, posts well and thoughtful, is known to be a decent player. All in all, squarely falling in the catagory that I would expect to not be lynched a lot in a group of players that knew her.

Which is why the undercurrent that names plum is surprising to me. It's different than what I expected from this game and I'm trying to find out if the reasons is either that people simply don't know her, or because I'm wrong about my assumptions about her, or because scum is somehow mingling in that discussion and amplifying the noise it's making in this game. Regardless, it says very little about plum's allignment. It might say something about the people talking about her.

[zMuffinMan]

who is talking about plum-scum other than me?

everyone else seems to think she's town for <insert shit reason>

[zMuffinMan]

we are less likely to lynch someone we like

i don't think i'm particularly likeable but i don't get lynched

i think people read my posts and don't feel particularly good about lynching someone who's obviously "special"

so i get sympathy avoidance or something

i also don't determine who i want to lynch based on who i like. maybe i'm weird.

[Kagami]

...

it's complete fucking BS and we need to lynch the fuck out of this before I go any more insane

How does fucking Brian Skies cause us to be more complete???!?!?!

[Kagami]

In case it's unclear, I think the BS/Brian Skies thing is silly. I see no reason why the probability that scum would make such a mistake would be radically higher than town making it. Pie feels very town to me.

That said, it also feels weird that scum Bro would go out on such a limb, but it's def possible. Effort post argument on F-16 isn't terrible. Pasch's crazy post followed by ninja vanish still seems like the most suspicious thing that's happened thus far.

[zMuffinMan]

In case it's unclear

it was very unclear. thanks for clarifying

[Paschendale]

Very well, perhaps I was mistaken in my conclusions over this "weak" modifier thing. The whole think stunk to me, though.

Plum's posts still have me uneasy, but I'm willing to accept being wrong about the "weak" thing. But I don't like the way she handled it at all.

Otherwise, there are so many different things going on. I think F-16 is floudering all over the place. I'm not sure what's going on in his mind, but he's puking all over the page.

I'm not inspired by Dan at all, or Tammy. Tammy makes good points, but then ignored all of them to vote for me. I've seen a couple people say things like "nothing Pasch posts looks like town". Sorry, that's just how I sound. I get mislynched a lot because people apparently don't know how to read me.

Muffin is, in my experience, pretty level-headed and is playing to that in this game. I think he's right about Bro. Bro started out strong, like he had some ideas, but has seriously petered out since. He looks unfocused and defensive. Not sure how I feel about his quickhammer comment about F-16. though. Why wouldn't he cast the l-1 vote? Seems weird.

VOTE: Bro

Pasch's crazy post followed by ninja vanish still seems like the most suspicious thing that's happened thus far.

I was actually on a train all day yesterday. I forgot to post about it in this thread. You can see posts about it in mini 1536 and 1537.

[Tammy]

Myko - I didn't say I've seen falcon do that before, I said it's the type of analysis I'd expect from falcon. He's very meta heavy and comparative in his analysis.


Falcon - what is your read on pascendale?