Mini 1537: ATTACK ON TITAN (Game Over!)

[Tammy]

Tammy, so far I am thinking Plum, Kagami, Bert, and Pie are town. What do you think of Brian Skies so far?

I wish he wouldn't quote stripe so long but I'm leaning town on him.

[mykonian]

Myko - I didn't say I've seen falcon do that before, I said it's the type of analysis I'd expect from falcon. He's very meta heavy and comparative in his analysis.


Falcon - what is your read on pascendale?

the exact same reasoning goes...

I mean, this way we could talk to eachother and people won't know we aren't married. Jeez. (YOU ARE THE MOST ANNOYING PERSON IN THE WORLD AND I CAN'T LIVE WITHOUT YOU)

[Paschendale]

You can see posts about it in mini 1536 and 1537.

Or rather, just 1536.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ The Purple Rose,

The timing of my effort is non-alignment indicative for me. Effort by itself is actually more a feature of my towngames. What you are picking up on are playstyle tells.

You are also off about characterizing my early towngame as timid. I generally tend to be more restrained as scum and moderately aggressive as town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

someone put f16 at l-1 and i'll quickhammer. go

Wtf? Explain this.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Otherwise, there are so many different things going on. I think F-16 is floudering all over the place. I'm not sure what's going on in his mind, but he's puking all over the page.

What the hell do you mean "puking all over the page?" Nothing that you have said in this game makes any sense to me. I start to read your posts and am lost as to what your thought processes are and what you are even saying.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Myko - I didn't say I've seen falcon do that before, I said it's the type of analysis I'd expect from falcon. He's very meta heavy and comparative in his analysis.


Falcon - what is your read on pascendale?

Likely scum.

VOTE: Paschendale

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Bolded one line, cause I want to answer to it. He thinks it's interesting to analyse the reactions of a previous game to a miller claim. Okay... The link is three players and that the mod is the same.

Now, this is page four. What sensible person would put a rather big amount of effort into doing analysis on a different game that early, with that little to gain? Basically, his analysis does very little only put a little bit of doubt on kaze, and F-16 is very passive with the last paragraph as well. It's big effort, low gain, but damn it looks nice.

I generally put in a LOT of effort to get reads in a game. It isn't uncommon for me to read through several games just to get a read on a single player. In one game, I read or skimmed 24 other games to develop reads on the players in that game. I was pretty accurate as well narrowing scum down to 2/3 players and given more time, I would have pegged the scumteam. So, there is a lot to gain from researching Pitoli's last game. I originally thought there was even more to gain because I believed that town and scum would react in alignment indicative ways and thought I could establish patterns hence the analysis of every player in the game as opposed to just the ones that were playing. I realized as I finished the analysis that there were no set patterns and the only information I could gain was an insight into how the players in the game reacted to a miller claim and compare and contrast with how they did here. I developed several reads based off of it. They were early reads but still very good ones. It was high effort, high gain.

You argue it came too soon. I disagree. I think developing early reads propels the game forward and helps better refinement of those reads. I generally try hard to put an end to RVS even if my reasons are a stretch. Mini 1472 (Swagtown) is a good example of that. In this case, I preferred not to wait to post my analysis.

If a town would have had to make a post in the same spot, he'd comment on this game. He wouldn't put a huge effort post that soon into the game because his information still was limited, and in 20 pages he might gain more from a comparison between playstyles in both games, not after 4 pages here. He wouldn't basically put more time in that game then the one he's in after 4 pages. That's why that post stands out so much, first regardless of player. It's an effort post that comes way too soon, it's showing off while doing very little. F-16 pushed kaze again just 2 pages ago and he doesn't mention this post anymore, where he's analysing kaze and comes out with a negative result.

That applies to players who don't spend a lot of time doing metadives. I spend an extremely large amount of time comparing and contrasting play with other games. Most of the scum behaviors I push people on are customized scumtells for that player. Posting information about that game helped me develop reads and advance the gamestate. It allows players to comment, and help refine those reads. Everyone who played that game had reacted to the miller claim. I got the information I needed to sort people so there was no reason to wait 20 more pages. I would gain more if I posted meta-analysis of individual players later on in the game and I plan to do that. My post about miller-reactions was just that - how each player reacted to the miller claim. It wasn't a comprehensive analysis of their playstyle. If it was, you would have been right that posting it early would have hindered future reactions.

My read on Kaze changed after further interaction with him. My reads out of my post are not set in stone and are subject to change. This is obvious. I am not going to keep coming back to it every time my reads change.

And I've seen F-16 now a couple of games, and this is not how he starts out. If anything, F-16's early game is characterized by timidity, he's always watching the game rather then doing stuff till very late in the day compared to other players. The post doesn't make sense for a general townie, and it doesn't make sense for f-16.

You are blatantly wrong about this characterization of my early game play. I don't have an early game "meta" as town or scum because I switch it up from game to game but I've never played "timidly." I sometimes play very aggressively and accuse a lot of people. Sometimes I focus on finding town. At other times, I address certain players I was looking forward to playing with.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

F-16's early game is characterized by timidity

I would really like you to answer from what game did you come to such a conclusion? In the game we played together, I quickhammered on Day 2 after questioning you for answers. In the game, we played under your alt, I was focussed on finding town so I could POE the scum. All games, there was some amount of aggression but the way in which I started off varied heavily.

[Plum]

If this game degenerates into Kagami vs. Bro and F16 vs. ActionDan I won't be a happy camper.

I'd be happy to take up the position.

Then start building some structure.

Because so far everyone's running around with their heads cut off.

I'll try. Just read up to Tammy's first post, and happy so far so, really, either way.

Scum are probably trying to out-WIFOM various townies about when they'll burn their commutes. Having closer to guaranteed kills later in the game is probably something scum are going to want to hold on to.

This reminds me - there's probably not an outright breaking strategy to use of the 3DMG ability. As in the series, we don't necessarily know what scum know or what counter abilities they have (it wouldn't especially shock me if scum had as either a group or one as a character ability a one-shot effective Strongman). But there may be a strategy that will optimize our use of it that will still be beneficial even though it obviously needs to be discussed in the presence of scum. I'm going to think on it, and I hope others will do the same.

For everything good in the world, stop the madness of BRO vs. Pie. More likely Town vs. Town than not (before a meta check on the two of them, anyway. Scum attracting this much attention this early on this basis doesn't seem a good risk/reward ratio at all. Both are being a little overinvested in fairly typical early-game anomalies to my reading, and neither seem scummy or off in general throughout the discussion - though I should do another look at that later I guess maybe, plus maybe a look at the F16 and co. business. I'm most interested in stuff from Pasch, Tammy, Muffin, and sort of Kagami when I have these 7 pages to read for the first time, for various reasons).

Paschendale (3)

: Plum, Kagami, Tammy

This is a nice feeling.

The broseidon / pie clash feels like a big misunderstanding that got blown out of proportion.

Which is why the undercurrent that names plum is surprising to me. It's different than what I expected from this game and I'm trying to find out if the reasons is either that people simply don't know her, or because I'm wrong about my assumptions about her, or because scum is somehow mingling in that discussion and amplifying the noise it's making in this game. Regardless, it says very little about plum's allignment. It might say something about the people talking about her.

I like the way you think - liked the whole post and line of thought, not just what I quoted. Hopefully not just because it's all about me, but still.

who is talking about plum-scum other than me?

everyone else seems to think she's town for <insert shit reason>

Pasch, though admittedly I think that's it? You didn't respond to anything in my post related to your suspicions, which is mildly annoying but in this case doesn't strike me as an issue relevant to my scumhunting (i.e. I've already made a general decision to trust you on stuff for the time being).

Plum's posts still have me uneasy, but I'm willing to accept being wrong about the "weak" thing. But I don't like the way she handled it at all.

Please elaborate. Or not. I'm not interested in letting you off the hook here though.

ActionDan and Kaze are two on whom I have little grasp. More worried about Dan, to be honest. I should read his stuff in more context - I skimmed his ISO just now - but I'm not impressed particularly. It's all one theme - maybe two, if you count the Townread on Kaze. F-16, by contrast, from the outset has irons in many fires.

[BROseidon]

BRO, thoughts on ActionDan based on his recent posts?

I like his trajectory. His recent posts have felt more townish.

[BROseidon]

I don't like his push on Kagami, but that's because Kagami's actions look different to me. I think Kagami comes out better.

Why does it feel like you're making the assumption that any aggressive interaction b/w two players is Town v. Scum?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

BRO, thoughts on ActionDan based on his recent posts?

I like his trajectory. His recent posts have felt more townish.

What of his trajectory did you like? All I have seen of it is that he votes me and continues arguing with me. There is no shift or change in direction.

How have his recent posts felt more townish?

[BROseidon]

@Bro: Are you seriously using an abbreviation for my username as an excuse to make a push on another player? Zzzzz.

No.

I'm using him using it to obfuscate my point and turn the attack on me to push. He misinterpreted my point, used that against me, and then didn't back off on it, instead trying to keep it as a point against me.

[BROseidon]

They're both being coy (I've already looked ahead though). Dan is town (I've already looked ahead to see his concern). Not quite sure on Myko, having second thoughts on who I think it is because the first post from that slot doesn't match up.

Now why are you jumping into a line of questioning not addressed at you?

[BROseidon]

Sorry, not enough time to go back and read your interactions thoroughly. I'll re-read them when I get back. Current opinion: I think Pie comes out better because some of the aspects of your argument seem overplayed. Anyhow, Tammy makes some comments about the discussion in your favor, so I want to go back and check later to see if I'm in the wrong.

Again, are you asserting that there's 1 scum in {me, Pie}

[BROseidon]

Which is why the undercurrent that names plum is surprising to me. It's different than what I expected from this game and I'm trying to find out if the reasons is either that people simply don't know her, or because I'm wrong about my assumptions about her, or because scum is somehow mingling in that discussion and amplifying the noise it's making in this game. Regardless, it says very little about plum's allignment. It might say something about the people talking about her.

Plum's not that widely suspected though...

[BROseidon]

Very well, perhaps I was mistaken in my conclusions over this "weak" modifier thing. The whole think stunk to me, though.

Plum's posts still have me uneasy, but I'm willing to accept being wrong about the "weak" thing. But I don't like the way she handled it at all.

Otherwise, there are so many different things going on. I think F-16 is floudering all over the place. I'm not sure what's going on in his mind, but he's puking all over the page.

I'm not inspired by Dan at all, or Tammy. Tammy makes good points, but then ignored all of them to vote for me. I've seen a couple people say things like "nothing Pasch posts looks like town". Sorry, that's just how I sound. I get mislynched a lot because people apparently don't know how to read me.

Muffin is, in my experience, pretty level-headed and is playing to that in this game. I think he's right about Bro. Bro started out strong, like he had some ideas, but has seriously petered out since. He looks unfocused and defensive. Not sure how I feel about his quickhammer comment about F-16. though. Why wouldn't he cast the l-1 vote? Seems weird.

VOTE: Bro

Pasch's crazy post followed by ninja vanish still seems like the most suspicious thing that's happened thus far.

I was actually on a train all day yesterday. I forgot to post about it in this thread. You can see posts about it in mini 1536 and 1537.

I'm defensive because I'm responding to attacks on me.

Wat.

Also, you have like twice as many scum reads as there are scum.

I'd rather lynch Pie, but I'll probably end up jumping to this since mine and F-16's wagons look counter to this, and his posts suck.

[BROseidon]

Also since apparently everyone else thinks Pie is town.

[BROseidon]

BRO, thoughts on ActionDan based on his recent posts?

I like his trajectory. His recent posts have felt more townish.

What of his trajectory did you like? All I have seen of it is that he votes me and continues arguing with me. There is no shift or change in direction.

How have his recent posts felt more townish?

I like how he's thinking about your posts through the lens of what information you're looking to gain, and developed his position based on that. What he's looking at isn't a bad tell; Mac used something vaguely similar against mastin to figure out that he was scum in Anything Goes. His last part is a little reachy, but certainly something that in the early game can easily come from town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I like how he's thinking about your posts through the lens of what information you're looking to gain, and developed his position based on that. What he's looking at isn't a bad tell; Mac used something vaguely similar against mastin to figure out that he was scum in Anything Goes. His last part is a little reachy, but certainly something that in the early game can easily come from town.

It is a bad tell. Why is dropping lines of questioning scummy? It seemed more like he was pretending to scumhunt rather than actually figuring out my affiliation. His responses when I explained it to him are that a) I made an error, b) I should be self-conscious. Neither of those make any sense.

[Paschendale]

I'm defensive because I'm responding to attacks on me.

Wat.

Also, you have like twice as many scum reads as there are scum.

I'd rather lynch Pie, but I'll probably end up jumping to this since mine and F-16's wagons look counter to this, and his posts suck.

You got defensive before there were many attacks on you, and were disproportionate in your defense. Your tone changed completely from a sensible offense to a desperate sounding defense.

Of course I have lots of scum reads, it's day 1. That's normal. While a lot of players in this game seem to like handing out townreads like candy, I don't. I think a lot more people are deserving of scumreads.

[BROseidon]

Scum motivation behind dropping a line of questioning is that it allows one to appear like they're trying to figure things out without having to push anything too hard.

That said, he isn't implicitly right, either, because the "it became irrelevant" statement can also be true. That said, his position in not believing you on that is similar to my position of not believing Pie when he says that he accidentally misconstrued "BS" and then proceeded to attack me on it. Townies have to cut through what they perceive to be bullshit.

[BROseidon]

I'm defensive because I'm responding to attacks on me.

Wat.

Also, you have like twice as many scum reads as there are scum.

I'd rather lynch Pie, but I'll probably end up jumping to this since mine and F-16's wagons look counter to this, and his posts suck.

You got defensive before there were many attacks on you, and were disproportionate in your defense. Your tone changed completely from a sensible offense to a desperate sounding defense.

Of course I have lots of scum reads, it's day 1. That's normal. While a lot of players in this game seem to like handing out townreads like candy, I don't. I think a lot more people are deserving of scumreads.

I'm not seeing where my tone was "disproportionate."

Hint: Because it wasn't.

Now go fuck off and try to push a less-shitty counter wagon. Tell your scum buddy Pie to join you.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Scum motivation behind dropping a line of questioning is that it allows one to appear like they're trying to figure things out without having to push anything too hard.

And how is it any different from town dropping a line of questioning because they want to figure things out and take a step back? Your answer seems to be "it looks like town, scum try to look like town, so it is scum."