Open 538: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[aptil]

I do not understand post #802 . Please can you explain it again .
@ DP : who are you adrressing in post #812 ? I don't get that either .

[Fusion]

• Tammy
  - Tammy is my strongest townread both based on her own actions as well as Wake88's. I find every one of her arguments to be reasonable, relevant and making a ton of sense. Her suspicion of Cheery and Zeb D1, and claim that Cheery's posts made little sense mirrored my own feelings at that time. Her townread on Does Bo Know and subsequent defense of him from Smudger is logical and consistent. Her questioning of Smudger to probe into why he is scumreading DBK based on the latter's change of reads is a push I agree with. The hesitant townread of BBMolla while also acknowledging the underlying paranoia looks to be coming from an extremely genuine place and matches up with her hesitance to lynch him and to investigate further. I also like her probing of ETL to understand her motivations for checking Zebe N1 and it seems like she is leaving no stone unturned in scumhunting. I rarely agree with nearly
  everything
  that a player says and does but this is one of those times, so I am extremely confident that Tammy is town.
  

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• Zebe
  - I was scumreading Zebe before the cop inno on him from ETL.
  But
  , if he is scum, that would require ETL to be scum as well. While a couple of things bothered me about ETL, I am leaning very strongly towards her being town and by extension Zebe. A key point with ETL's claim is that if she were scum with Zebe, she would wait to see if an actual town cop got a guilty rather than immediately claim the inno on Zeb because if a town cop contradicted what ETL said and had a guilty on Zeb, that would be two scum down (ETL and Zeb). Hypothetically ETL could be scum claiming an inno on town-Zebe although I don't believe that that is the case here. So, regardless of ETL's affiliation, I read Zebe as town.
  

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• ETL
  - ETL has been one of the most productive players D1 as far as content generation is concerned. Several of her pushes felt clearly town and her change of stances and smooth flow from one player to another felt very fluid. Of particular note are her interaction with Wake88 where she defends her vote and says she doesn't care if Wake is okay with it. Her explanation for why she is voting Lucky based on his ms.net vote and the persistent attempts to get through to Wake asking him to learn where she is coming from feels very transparent and honest. The timing of ETL's switch from Lucky to Gamsimbre in post 124 is also more likely to come from town than scum. At that time, the Lucky suspicion was going strong with little reasoning for ETL to backoff if she were scum. ETL’s continued questioning of Zebe from post 145 onwards felt very town and makes me more comfortable about seeing both of them as town as opposed to being paranoid of a scum fake-claiming cop. The one thing I disagreed with was ETL's case on Cheery but hindsight's 20/20 and I read ETL as quite strongly town overall.
  

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• DoctorPepper
  - I strongly disagree with the DoctorPepper wagon. While I initially thought his low contribution looked scummy, there are several things about him that makes him a very strong townread of mine starting with his catchup post 546. His second guessing on Wake felt genuine and arguing against ETL's case made a lot of sense coming from a town POV. I particularly like the way he is blocking out easy avenues to push mislynches and suspicion (like Lucky and Aptil). His points about Lucky's votes not being alignment indicative is far more likely to come from town who think that others are pushing misguided cases. I also really liked his point on Aptil being town for the BBMolla vote and I could see why later when Tammy brought up the history between herself, BBMolla, and Aptil from a different site. I love that he dismisses Aptil as town for a bad vote. Most scum of average skill level (like Pepper) generally hop onto townie mistakes to push them because that's where mislynch possibilities lie. That this came before the westeros reveal shows that his own thought processes came from a very genuine place and not from other players opinions. His defense of Cheery and critical analysis in 549 as to why Cheery is voting him (Pepper) as opposed to DBK and understanding that Cheery has no scum motivation to vote Pepper shows that Pepper is genuinely hunting for scum motivations. Scum also generally don't care as much who is mislynched when two townies are being wagoned (Cheery and DBK) but Pepper cared very much as evidenced by his push against Cheery despite ETL asking him to vote him. All of this points to DoctorPepper being really, really blatantly town.
  

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• Aptil
  - Aptil's initial altercation with Lucky2u felt like a genuine misunderstanding and his response to Mr.Blonde about his vote on Wake was very well-justified. I particularly like the reference to his past experience watching Wake blow up before as town and his hesitance in unvoting because of the lack of it this time around. Another very townish feature of his play is his tendency to go against the grain of popular opinion, first with his interpretation of Wake's reaction to the guilty claim and later on with his vote on BBMolla. His inquiry about BBMolla being a member of Westeros followed up with a vote shows a very genuine thought process of finding something off, questioning it, and following it up with a succinct case and a vote which I think Aptil as scum would find difficult to orchestrate based on what I've seen of him so far.
  

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• Lucky2u
  - Lucky2u is one of my weaker townreads. I liked his initial responses to ETL when she attacked him based on his ms.net vote and I found them pro-active and questioning with the intent of getting inside ETL's thought processes and his responses to Cheery and Aptil on page 6 felt mildly townish. His sequence of posts 321 and 322 feel pro-active since he followed up on his asking why Cheery Dog was townreading Gamsimbre by looking through Cheery's posts to track down his thought process on Gamsimbre which shows a really genuine desire to understand and scumhunt Cheery. I initially disliked his 748 on D2 since it seems like he is saying "scum can fake N1 cop" so scum have faked it but his explanation of it being a reaction test makes a lot of sense especially if he has played with ETL before and knows what her town reactions look like. Him calling out Kalimar who defending him as being misguided town was pretty cool as well. ETL, I am not convinced that his desire to poke holes necessarily came from a scum viewpoint. I felt that him reaction testing you actually felt pretty town. While he may not have been asking questions, I feel he is scumhunting in a way that he finds appropriate and I wouldn't expect him to scumhunt like Tammy or Borophil by asking questions.
  

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• Borophil
  - I am null on Borophil so far. I got gut scumvibes from his predecessor (Gamsimbre) but I like Borophil's entrace and his boldness in persuing BBMolla. I like that his BB push went against popular opinion and his questioning of Zebe seemed genuine. He seems like an overall competent player so I am a little hesitant to call him town - I think it is plausible he can fake what he did as scum. I dislike 761 and I felt that the wagon analysis was rather simplistic.
  

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• BBMolla
  - BBMolla reads null to me. I think his initial gambit was pro-town with the intent of generating discussion although based on his play so far, he seems to be the type of player who wouldn't mind doing it as scum either. A few of his reads (like Kalimar) mirror mine which is a sign in the right direction but I also tend to agree with Aptil in that he hasn't scumhunted or probed in depth for information as much as some other players like ETL and Tammy have. I am not sure if this is alignment indicative for him at all. I dislike his 255 since it seems like he is just throwing a jab at Wake and I also disagree with him telling DBK to lay off of Smudger in 287. I do like his 397 since I had the same feeling about Zebe's change of stances with the information available at that time. I'll need a lot more interaction to develop a solid read here.
  

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• Smudger
  - When I read Smudger's take on events, I tend to disagree with them a lot like his easy townread on BBMolla based on the gambit and I really disagree that sheeping makes DBK scummy which was what Smudger had picked up on in his initial catchup post in 281. However, I like his questioning of DBK in 403 and his skepticism of DBK's buddying of Mr.Blonde as well as his insistence on BBMolla answering his questions in 411. I dislike his sequence of 580 and 595. In 580, he says DBK is suspicious because he is changing direction in whichever way the wind is blowing but isn't sure whether it is scummy or slimy. Then in 595 he votes DBK for changing direction. But DBK had at that point gotten off the larger Cheery wagon because he didn't believe in it and voted his scumread Zebe along with BBMolla and it doesn't seem like he is just going with the flow at all so I heavily dislike Smudger's vote on DBK in 595. I also don't like his current vote on Lucky. Null leaning scum.
  

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• Kalimar
  - Kalimar's catchup post 417 bugged me for its almost complete lack of any new content. He is bored by Wake's reaction and leans town on BB for conducting the gambit both of which were discussed before. He FOSses Gamsimbre (Borophil's slot) for the seeming contradiction of agreeing with both Lucky's attackers and defenders which was also brought up by ETL earlier. He responds to enquiries about him, agrees with Mr.Blonde, and says that it is going to be hard to read Wake. He does FOS Cheery for having a strong townread on Gamsimbre which to some extent justifies his later vote but I found the reasoning for the FOS very, very weak. There is nothing here that shows genuine scumhunting or betrays an uninformed perspective. His catchup mostly repeats what other people have said and he later joins the Cheery wagon at deadline after a perfunctory question to Cheery in 585. He also bit into everything that DoctorPepper didn't bite, pushing on easy mislynches like Cheery (for being certain about a townread) and Aptil (for hypocrisy), and not analyzing the motivations behind people's posts which Pepper genuinely did. I don't like the immediate OMGUS on Pepper in 751 saying that their content is "
  nearly equal
  ." I actually found a world of difference between the content of Pepper and Kalimar the only similarity being the quantity of posts. His questioning of ETL D2 makes him look better but I haven't seen anything that scum wouldn't fake that makes up for his D1 posts. Very happy with a Kalimar wagon today.

VOTE: Kalimar

[BBmolla]

\o/

[BoroPhil]

bit upset that null isn't a different colour to scum

[BoroPhil]

actually Kalimar is a different colour. I think I'm going colour blind

[BoroPhil]

I like some of your reads though. Top 3 I'd agree with, though like you say the only scenario where Zebe is scum is when ETL is as well, so I'd have Zebe at the top (if you are posting a hierarchy which I think you are).

I still think Dr.Pepper is a good vote but I'm certainly not locked into it. From what has happened today we almost seem to have a consensus forming on Smudger so I think I'd be happy to switch there.

Lucky seems pretty much town to me atm, not sure why ETL is so obsessed on him. Aptil I'm a bit meh about.

I'd love BB to be scum based on that N0 gambit, but I've liked his posts today to an extent.

Not convinced at all that there is a strong case on Kalimar but then I liked his 417.

As for you, if you are scum that's a cracking post. I'm a sucker for big posts full of reads.

Smudger
Dr Pepper
BB/Aptil

scummy for me atm

[Tammy]

prod-dodge. My brain is absolutely fried, so I'll get to this tomorrow after work.

[Smudger]

What to say, agree on a lit of what Fusion has said, obviously though do not fully agree. I still feel Lucky is scum.

[aptil]

I do not understand post #802 . Please can you explain it again .
@ DP : who are you adrressing in post #812 ? I don't get that either .

This never got answered .

[Lucky2u]

What to say, agree on a lit of what Fusion has said, obviously though do not fully agree. I still feel Lucky is scum.

I feel like this is a really lazy post or a scum post. You don't say what you agree with, or don't agree with and then you confirm your vote. This post did nothing. Point out something you disagreed with and tell us why. That is the point of the game.

[BoroPhil]

agreed, and two people have basically called you scum Smudger and it barely registers. you either aren't bothered or don't want to get involved in a conversation because you are scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Smudger

[anorway]

Due to Wake88 being banned on the site, his slot, now occupied by Tammy, will be modkilled.

Wake88

(Tammy)

,

Town Doctor

, has been modkilled!

The day will proceed as normal.

Deadline: (expired on 2014-01-18 19:00:00)

[anorway]

Deadline: (expired on 2014-01-18 19:00:00)

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Vote Count 2.4

[L-6] Fusion
[L-6] Zebe
[L-6] BBmolla
[L-6] BoroPhil
[L-6] EspeciallyTheLies
[L-6] aptil
[L-4]

Lucky2u

: EspeciallyTheLies, Smudger
[L-4]

Smudger

: Lucky2u, BoroPhil

[L-3]

DoctorPepper:

Kalimar, Zebe, aptil
[L-3]

Kalimar:

DoctorPepper, BBmolla Fusion

Not voting (0):

[Lucky2u]

Oh well... Shit...

[anorway]

DoctorPepper and EspeciallyTheLies have been prodded.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

ehwat didn't i post yesterday?

bah.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Oops. Guess I didn't Sorry. I was sure I responded to some smudger's reply but it either must have been a dream or the post got eaten somehow.

Anyway, I like my vote and I'm not sure what else to add here. I gave my reasoning for it.

Oh yeah, I really liked fusion's post. I don't remember him being that awesome in Jacob's game. Either he's improving or something else is up. I'll have to go check that game again.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

fucking wake. *sigh*.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

That's not even right. IIRC, the violation occurred on Dec 6, before this game even started, and his slot has already been replaced. Stinky stinky poo.

[BoroPhil]

is that standard rules? seems odd.

[BoroPhil]

Oops. Guess I didn't Sorry. I was sure I responded to some smudger's reply but it either must have been a dream or the post got eaten somehow.

Anyway, I like my vote and I'm not sure what else to add here. I gave my reasoning for it.

Oh yeah, I really liked fusion's post. I don't remember him being that awesome in Jacob's game. Either he's improving or something else is up. I'll have to go check that game again.

interesting that you say that. was Fusion's post a bit too good? his top 3 were maybe a bit obvious, although he didn't have to include Tammy. there's plenty in the middle and then he votes for a leading wagon (although Dr.Pepper might have been easier). Prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt thus far

[BoroPhil]

ah, apologies anorway, you were just following what quadz said in your linked post. I can see why now.

[BoroPhil]

wow, some fascinating bans there. never read that thread before.

[DoctorPepper]

@lucky: not a defence of you, more an attempt to gauge ETL's thought process on the matter. content is subjective but to me refers to the assertion and discussion of posts and opinions that advances the gamestate. i have not asserted or discussed a large amount of posts and opinions in this game, and neither has DP. this wasn't my main problem with DP's vote of me: rather I found it hypocritical (and therefore scummy) that someone who has done next to nothing votes me primarily for doing next to nothing.

i'm decently satisfied with ETL's reasoning on her lucky scumread and cop choice. although i think making the second choice cop contingent on another n1 cop existing was a bit odd i'm not sure it's scummy odd just odd.

1. Is hypocrisy a scum tell in itself?
2. I dont see why you thinking ETL would see a second cop possibility and that first cop may have made the first choice to investigate anyway?

[DoctorPepper]

Zebe and Dr Pepper stayed resolutely on DBK.
ETL, Mr Blonde and Lucky stayed resolutely on Cheery.

Not sure if this essentially proves my case wrong with Zebe/ETL being there, but worth a discussion at least. and again means that we have to discuss the possibility of ETL/Zebe being scum together.

Vote for now is based on the above, his lack of anything else yesterday and a horrible vote on Kalimar today who looks town to me based on yesterday.

VOTE: DoctorPepper

I spent all day on DBK instead of Cheery who we found out was also a townie.
What are you implying here?

And that vague "lack of anything yesterday" for voting me. What was so town about Kalimar when he even said our content was about the same? You said he was pretty town but I lacked anything yesterday?

If anything it means you and Kalimar could be scum together.