Micro 285 - Time: The Distortion (Town Win)

[Breakfast With Sandy]

Why did you claim at L-2? It's mostly a curiosity question. Fakeclaiming is a possibility, but I don't see the scum-profit in prematurely fakeclaiming.

What changed your mind about Lucky?

[/b]
Because we didn't want any fucking derp hammers. And an Adaptive-DOMO-Lucky-Bert train on us seemed pretty fucking likely last night.

@ bold: Bert WKing with bad reasons + Talah setting up for a Lucky waffle + Goading us into putting him to L-1 + Setting up a quickhammer with Bert in thread

^Why did I need to restate all of this?

Because I'm not convinced of AH-scum. I want to go through your interactions a few times and think about his interactions with us some more, because I was leaning town based on his approach to us.

talah has danced around the possibility of me being scum to a larger extent than in our two prior games. One of those games was that OZ hilarity so it's hard to do much with it. But, in the postgame discussion it became pretty clear that he'd spent a fair bit of time trying to figure me out in that game and has meta'd the hell out of me as a hydra and as a solo player. The question remains whether the stuff he mined from all that will turn out to be alignment indicative or even relevant over time.

PEdit: Bert is not best for today. Who is Bert's partner if it's not Adaptive? And if you agree that it's Bert/Adaptive then we murder the strong scum first.

- Des

Someone he's mostly ignored. Which would mean one of my town reads is wrong.

[Messiah Complex]

I'm not sensible, so I advise you to keep away people from lynch -1 in case I lose my marbles.

You know what's funny? I didn't even know this posted existed when I made the above case; I was going off Adaptive's ISO because their accusation gave me whiplash that severe.

It's too perfect.

On a related note, DOMO and catboi are both town. Is Bert ignoring his buddies scum meta?

- Des

[Majiffy]

Scumfuck (L-2): Lucky2u, Bert
Messiah Complex (L-3): Adaptive Heap
Lucky2u(L-3): catboi
Adaptive Heap (L-3): Messiah Complex
Bert(L-3): DOMO

Not Voting: Scumfuck
7 alive, 4 to lynch.

[Breakfast With Sandy]

Bert's scum meta is to attack strong players and act paranoid about them. At least the meta I'm most familiar with. He lurked quite a bit in the last scum game I played with him, but it was more of a factor after day 1 and I was the N1 kill and didn't get a chance to refine that read.

[Adaptive Heap]

Okay then. Back to lucky.

VOTE: lucky2u

I'll just note, Des, that me shifting votes from lucky, to you (pun unintended but nice), put him back on L-3 with only one vote.

And now, coffee.

-t

[Adaptive Heap]

Lucky & Bert really both need to get in here and post readslists.

Messiah, if you're through being wrong and boldcaps ranting then you'll realise that if mastin & I don't get nightkilled tonight, we're probably scum, since it's clear you're not protecting us and well *mastin*.

Also we're entering the edge of that panic-voting stage if we don't figure out the best lynch for today. I can do either Bert or lucky today. mastin said he'd take a look at the thread today too. I feel a bit weird paraphrasing most of the info in our hydra QT but it's honestly not much.

-t

[Adaptive Heap]

Incidentally ffery, I haven't meta-dived you in any sense but I just have a feeling that I could tell the difference between your motivations as town or scum having played in a game or so with you and reading a few others you've been in. It's Beli that has me antsy and I have looked at a scumgame or two of his for *reasons*. Still nothing that outweighs a generally town vibe from you.

DOMO seems to have come good-ish, at least isn't hesitating on explanations and input

catboi's alright but I wish he would post more since most people are townreading him

Someone really needs to step up and take the lead I think. I hate feeling like I have that role.

-t

[Breakfast With Sandy]

My scumgames are awesome, you should read them anyways.

-Beli

[Bert]

Hi guys, I hope I will continue to get to participate and have everyone satisfied.

Just stressed out, that's all. This is a prod dodge, but I don't know what to say about reads or anything...have a good weekend

<3

[Messiah Complex]

Lucky & Bert really both need to get in here and post readslists.

Messiah, if you're through being wrong and boldcaps ranting then you'll realise that if mastin & I don't get nightkilled tonight, we're probably scum, since it's clear you're not protecting us and well *mastin*.

Also we're entering the edge of that panic-voting stage if we don't figure out the best lynch for today. I can do either Bert or lucky today. mastin said he'd take a look at the thread today too. I feel a bit weird paraphrasing most of the info in our hydra QT but it's honestly not much.

-t

Why would you die tonight?

[Messiah Complex]

Lucky & Bert really both need to get in here and post readslists.

Messiah, if you're through being wrong and boldcaps ranting then you'll realise that if mastin & I don't get nightkilled tonight, we're probably scum, since it's clear you're not protecting us and well *mastin*.

Also we're entering the edge of that panic-voting stage if we don't figure out the best lynch for today. I can do either Bert or lucky today. mastin said he'd take a look at the thread today too. I feel a bit weird paraphrasing most of the info in our hydra QT but it's honestly not much.

-t

Did you just suggest that you two will be the NK over the uncountered Doc claim???

what the fuck

- Des

[Messiah Complex]

seriously though

what the fuck?!?

that can't be town

- Des

[Messiah Complex]

I think I'd like to know if lucky is generally this succinct as town or not.

You've still got two votes on you right? I find it baffling that both come with helpful serves of no reason.

btw lucky I thoroughly enjoy your username

-t

Okay then. Back to lucky.

VOTE: lucky2u

I'll just note, Des, that me shifting votes from lucky, to you (pun unintended but nice), put him back on L-3 with only one vote.

And now, coffee.

-t

What happened to this track, Talah? You set up a Lucky waffle, started in on us, and then we claimed and you defaulted back to Lucky with no follow up. Explain?

- Des

[Adaptive Heap]

Go back and re-read the fucking setup will you.

Scum have a roleblocker, town have a macho cop and a doc.

Admittedly it's only the case if we *don't* lynch scum today, but *if* we don't, the best scum play is to roleblock the doc (if they claim like idiots at L-2 with fuck-all pressure and no other currently stated support for a lynch) and shoot among the remaining unknowns trying to hit the cop.

-t

[Messiah Complex]

Admittedly it's only the case if we *don't* lynch scum today, but *if* we don't, the best scum play is to roleblock the doc (if they claim like idiots at L-2 with fuck-all pressure and no other currently stated support for a lynch) and shoot among the remaining unknowns trying to hit the cop.

No shit sherlock. That's why your spec doesn't seem genuine--why assume a mislynch? And then bet your alignment on it?

[DOMO]

Ok I can see AH/bert scum. At the end of page 1, AH announces there's scum between me and masky (bert), the two people yet to post, and he's leaning me. I then make my opening posts, and AH doesn't like them. Fair enough, but when bert enters with a scumfuck vote, AH welcomes him. MC's theory that AH was goading him into an L-1 vote for bert to hammer is reasonable, although I wouldn't call it compelling. Bert would get snaplynched tomorrow and AH might have to defend himself against accusations of goading MC into voting lucky, so it would be a risky scum strategy. I can see it though because I believe AH would feel confident enough as scum that they would be able to fend off the arguments.

I understand the concept of taking out the strongest scum. But I think that's outweighed by the uncertainty factor and that we should go for who would be the weakest townie as a damage limitation exercise. I think if AH is town he'll process night information better than a town bert, a bert townflip means we can reassess AH, while a bert scumflip means it's highly likely that AH gets lynched tomorrow, regardless of how strong he is as scum.

So while I can see bert/AH scum, I stand by my comment that bert is best for today.

[Adaptive Heap]

Admittedly it's only the case if we *don't* lynch scum today, but *if* we don't, the best scum play is to roleblock the doc (if they claim like idiots at L-2 with fuck-all pressure and no other currently stated support for a lynch) and shoot among the remaining unknowns trying to hit the cop.

No shit sherlock. That's why your spec doesn't seem genuine--why assume a mislynch? And then bet your alignment on it?

I've assumed that mastin (and therefore our slot) would be the Night 1 nightkill target ever since we rolled town. I didn't think about how radically scumlynch/mislynch would alter likely night-action outcomes with the doc claim on the table, just had the initial thought that your claim would probably see you through to Day 2, and that there was no reason for the real doc to not claim should you be fakeclaiming. I only thought about the different outcomes in a bit more detail as I was typing post 263. I guess I'm naturally a worst-case-scenario kind of guy.

[Adaptive Heap]

Ok I can see AH/bert scum. At the end of page 1, AH announces there's scum between me and masky (bert), the two people yet to post, and he's leaning me. I then make my opening posts, and AH doesn't like them. Fair enough, but when bert enters with a scumfuck vote, AH welcomes him. MC's theory that AH was goading him into an L-1 vote for bert to hammer is reasonable, although I wouldn't call it compelling. Bert would get snaplynched tomorrow and AH might have to defend himself against accusations of goading MC into voting lucky, so it would be a risky scum strategy. I can see it though because I believe AH would feel confident enough as scum that they would be able to fend off the arguments.

I understand the concept of taking out the strongest scum. But I think that's outweighed by the uncertainty factor and that we should go for who would be the weakest townie as a damage limitation exercise. I think if AH is town he'll process night information better than a town bert, a bert townflip means we can reassess AH, while a bert scumflip means it's highly likely that AH gets lynched tomorrow, regardless of how strong he is as scum.

So while I can see bert/AH scum, I stand by my comment that bert is best for today.

This post really rankles with me DOMO.

I don't know why you reiterate Messiah's assumption that I was 'goading them into an L-1 vote', when what I was specifically doing was 'goading them into an L-2 vote with the threat that I would put Lucky at L-1'. I did this in an attempt to sort Messiah and find out what the hell was up with the wagon analysis/no voting contradiction.

It feels a bit like you're trying to steer today's lynch off Lucky by way of presenting our slot and Bert as the two alternatives.

So - are you townreading Lucky now? Or do you just have a stronger scumread on our slot?

---

So here's the deadline:

(expired on 2014-01-21 20:00:00)

And what I plan to do barring mastin's triumphant game-breaking return, is to put some faith in my read on Scumfuck and sheep them onto their preferred lynch for today, at least if they're thinking one of Lucky or Bert.

-t (above post is me too)

[Breakfast With Sandy]

at least if they're thinking one of Lucky or Bert.

We are.

As to which...

er,

I'll call Mr. Z.

[Breakfast With Sandy]

I'll reassess all my townreads tomorrow, assuming I'm not lynched/killed.

Do you think you are top contender for being night killed?

Hey Lucky, I'm leaning toward voting you today. Talk to me about how I should be able to tell you're town.

[catboi]

catboi's alright but I wish he would post more since most people are townreading him

was sick yesterday but yeah

super lazy right now buuut

lucky/ert are both premium lynches, a quick check of lucky's meta suggests he really isn't this useless as town, which makes bert's defense of him all the worse. Scumfuck's town, domo I feel a little better about, no strong feelings one way or the other on AH but I prioritize lynching one of the first two today.

*shrugs*

[Bert]

AH seems like town.

[catboi]

I'm starting to like the idea of voting you if that's all you have to offer at this point~

[Majiffy]

Prodded Lucky.

There's roughly 48 hours left in this dayphase.

[Bert]

Can we lynch DOMO instead?