Open 538: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[anorway]

Deadline: (expired on 2014-02-03 16:00:00)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Vote Count 3.2

[L-5] DoctorPepper
[L-5] Zebe
[L-5] BBmolla
[L-5] Smudger
[L-5] EspeciallyTheLies
[L-5] aptil

[L-3]

Lucky2u

: BoroPhil, Smudger

[L-3]

BoroPhil

: EspeciallyTheLies, Lucky2u

Not voting (4): DoctorPepper, Zebe, BBmolla, aptil

[DoctorPepper]

VOTE: BoroPhil

Could he BE any scummier?

[Smudger]

Weird wagon on Boro. surely we should follow ETL and Zebe are they not driving this game now? Zebe your thoughts?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Weird wagon on Boro. surely we should follow ETL and Zebe are they not driving this game now? Zebe your thoughts?

Why is it weird? Why are you asking zebe and not the people on the wagon?

What are YOUR thoughts?

[BoroPhil]

VOTE: BoroPhil

Could he BE any scummier?

Because those that seem the scummiest are always scum?

Have a think about it.

[Lucky2u]

VOTE: BoroPhil

Could he BE any scummier?

Because those that seem the scummiest are always scum?

Have a think about it.

The hell did you just say? Is your argument that you seem scummy so you aren't scum?

[BoroPhil]

well I'd have to be pretty terrible scum to be defending my buddy Kalimar yesterday when he was guaranteed to be lynched don't you think?

[BoroPhil]

ETL - what's the argument for a massclaim?

[Lucky2u]

well I'd have to be pretty terrible scum to be defending my buddy Kalimar yesterday when he was guaranteed to be lynched don't you think?

ok, that's a better argument

[BoroPhil]

• Tammy
  - Tammy is my strongest townread both based on her own actions as well as Wake88's. I find every one of her arguments to be reasonable, relevant and making a ton of sense. Her suspicion of Cheery and Zeb D1, and claim that Cheery's posts made little sense mirrored my own feelings at that time. Her townread on Does Bo Know and subsequent defense of him from Smudger is logical and consistent. Her questioning of Smudger to probe into why he is scumreading DBK based on the latter's change of reads is a push I agree with. The hesitant townread of BBMolla while also acknowledging the underlying paranoia looks to be coming from an extremely genuine place and matches up with her hesitance to lynch him and to investigate further. I also like her probing of ETL to understand her motivations for checking Zebe N1 and it seems like she is leaving no stone unturned in scumhunting. I rarely agree with nearly
  everything
  that a player says and does but this is one of those times, so I am extremely confident that Tammy is town.
  

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• Zebe
  - I was scumreading Zebe before the cop inno on him from ETL.
  But
  , if he is scum, that would require ETL to be scum as well. While a couple of things bothered me about ETL, I am leaning very strongly towards her being town and by extension Zebe. A key point with ETL's claim is that if she were scum with Zebe, she would wait to see if an actual town cop got a guilty rather than immediately claim the inno on Zeb because if a town cop contradicted what ETL said and had a guilty on Zeb, that would be two scum down (ETL and Zeb). Hypothetically ETL could be scum claiming an inno on town-Zebe although I don't believe that that is the case here. So, regardless of ETL's affiliation, I read Zebe as town.
  

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• ETL
  - ETL has been one of the most productive players D1 as far as content generation is concerned. Several of her pushes felt clearly town and her change of stances and smooth flow from one player to another felt very fluid. Of particular note are her interaction with Wake88 where she defends her vote and says she doesn't care if Wake is okay with it. Her explanation for why she is voting Lucky based on his ms.net vote and the persistent attempts to get through to Wake asking him to learn where she is coming from feels very transparent and honest. The timing of ETL's switch from Lucky to Gamsimbre in post 124 is also more likely to come from town than scum. At that time, the Lucky suspicion was going strong with little reasoning for ETL to backoff if she were scum. ETL’s continued questioning of Zebe from post 145 onwards felt very town and makes me more comfortable about seeing both of them as town as opposed to being paranoid of a scum fake-claiming cop. The one thing I disagreed with was ETL's case on Cheery but hindsight's 20/20 and I read ETL as quite strongly town overall.
  

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• DoctorPepper
  - I strongly disagree with the DoctorPepper wagon. While I initially thought his low contribution looked scummy, there are several things about him that makes him a very strong townread of mine starting with his catchup post 546. His second guessing on Wake felt genuine and arguing against ETL's case made a lot of sense coming from a town POV. I particularly like the way he is blocking out easy avenues to push mislynches and suspicion (like Lucky and Aptil). His points about Lucky's votes not being alignment indicative is far more likely to come from town who think that others are pushing misguided cases. I also really liked his point on Aptil being town for the BBMolla vote and I could see why later when Tammy brought up the history between herself, BBMolla, and Aptil from a different site. I love that he dismisses Aptil as town for a bad vote. Most scum of average skill level (like Pepper) generally hop onto townie mistakes to push them because that's where mislynch possibilities lie. That this came before the westeros reveal shows that his own thought processes came from a very genuine place and not from other players opinions. His defense of Cheery and critical analysis in 549 as to why Cheery is voting him (Pepper) as opposed to DBK and understanding that Cheery has no scum motivation to vote Pepper shows that Pepper is genuinely hunting for scum motivations. Scum also generally don't care as much who is mislynched when two townies are being wagoned (Cheery and DBK) but Pepper cared very much as evidenced by his push against Cheery despite ETL asking him to vote him. All of this points to DoctorPepper being really, really blatantly town.
  

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• Aptil
  - Aptil's initial altercation with Lucky2u felt like a genuine misunderstanding and his response to Mr.Blonde about his vote on Wake was very well-justified. I particularly like the reference to his past experience watching Wake blow up before as town and his hesitance in unvoting because of the lack of it this time around. Another very townish feature of his play is his tendency to go against the grain of popular opinion, first with his interpretation of Wake's reaction to the guilty claim and later on with his vote on BBMolla. His inquiry about BBMolla being a member of Westeros followed up with a vote shows a very genuine thought process of finding something off, questioning it, and following it up with a succinct case and a vote which I think Aptil as scum would find difficult to orchestrate based on what I've seen of him so far.
  

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• Lucky2u
  - Lucky2u is one of my weaker townreads. I liked his initial responses to ETL when she attacked him based on his ms.net vote and I found them pro-active and questioning with the intent of getting inside ETL's thought processes and his responses to Cheery and Aptil on page 6 felt mildly townish. His sequence of posts 321 and 322 feel pro-active since he followed up on his asking why Cheery Dog was townreading Gamsimbre by looking through Cheery's posts to track down his thought process on Gamsimbre which shows a really genuine desire to understand and scumhunt Cheery. I initially disliked his 748 on D2 since it seems like he is saying "scum can fake N1 cop" so scum have faked it but his explanation of it being a reaction test makes a lot of sense especially if he has played with ETL before and knows what her town reactions look like. Him calling out Kalimar who defending him as being misguided town was pretty cool as well. ETL, I am not convinced that his desire to poke holes necessarily came from a scum viewpoint. I felt that him reaction testing you actually felt pretty town. While he may not have been asking questions, I feel he is scumhunting in a way that he finds appropriate and I wouldn't expect him to scumhunt like Tammy or Borophil by asking questions.
  

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• Borophil
  - I am null on Borophil so far. I got gut scumvibes from his predecessor (Gamsimbre) but I like Borophil's entrace and his boldness in persuing BBMolla. I like that his BB push went against popular opinion and his questioning of Zebe seemed genuine. He seems like an overall competent player so I am a little hesitant to call him town - I think it is plausible he can fake what he did as scum. I dislike 761 and I felt that the wagon analysis was rather simplistic.
  

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• BBMolla
  - BBMolla reads null to me. I think his initial gambit was pro-town with the intent of generating discussion although based on his play so far, he seems to be the type of player who wouldn't mind doing it as scum either. A few of his reads (like Kalimar) mirror mine which is a sign in the right direction but I also tend to agree with Aptil in that he hasn't scumhunted or probed in depth for information as much as some other players like ETL and Tammy have. I am not sure if this is alignment indicative for him at all. I dislike his 255 since it seems like he is just throwing a jab at Wake and I also disagree with him telling DBK to lay off of Smudger in 287. I do like his 397 since I had the same feeling about Zebe's change of stances with the information available at that time. I'll need a lot more interaction to develop a solid read here.
  

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• Smudger
  - When I read Smudger's take on events, I tend to disagree with them a lot like his easy townread on BBMolla based on the gambit and I really disagree that sheeping makes DBK scummy which was what Smudger had picked up on in his initial catchup post in 281. However, I like his questioning of DBK in 403 and his skepticism of DBK's buddying of Mr.Blonde as well as his insistence on BBMolla answering his questions in 411. I dislike his sequence of 580 and 595. In 580, he says DBK is suspicious because he is changing direction in whichever way the wind is blowing but isn't sure whether it is scummy or slimy. Then in 595 he votes DBK for changing direction. But DBK had at that point gotten off the larger Cheery wagon because he didn't believe in it and voted his scumread Zebe along with BBMolla and it doesn't seem like he is just going with the flow at all so I heavily dislike Smudger's vote on DBK in 595. I also don't like his current vote on Lucky. Null leaning scum.
  

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• Kalimar
  - Kalimar's catchup post 417 bugged me for its almost complete lack of any new content. He is bored by Wake's reaction and leans town on BB for conducting the gambit both of which were discussed before. He FOSses Gamsimbre (Borophil's slot) for the seeming contradiction of agreeing with both Lucky's attackers and defenders which was also brought up by ETL earlier. He responds to enquiries about him, agrees with Mr.Blonde, and says that it is going to be hard to read Wake. He does FOS Cheery for having a strong townread on Gamsimbre which to some extent justifies his later vote but I found the reasoning for the FOS very, very weak. There is nothing here that shows genuine scumhunting or betrays an uninformed perspective. His catchup mostly repeats what other people have said and he later joins the Cheery wagon at deadline after a perfunctory question to Cheery in 585. He also bit into everything that DoctorPepper didn't bite, pushing on easy mislynches like Cheery (for being certain about a townread) and Aptil (for hypocrisy), and not analyzing the motivations behind people's posts which Pepper genuinely did. I don't like the immediate OMGUS on Pepper in 751 saying that their content is "
  nearly equal
  ." I actually found a world of difference between the content of Pepper and Kalimar the only similarity being the quantity of posts. His questioning of ETL D2 makes him look better but I haven't seen anything that scum wouldn't fake that makes up for his D1 posts. Very happy with a Kalimar wagon today.

VOTE: Kalimar

I hope everyone has revisited Fusion's rather excellent post. At the minute I don't really agree with it considering Lucky/aptil are top of my list, which either means:

a) I'm wrong (and I was very wrong about Kalimar)
b) Fusion was wrong

a) is probably more likely on the balance of things.

Is it worth speculating why Fusion was killed? Zebe seemed to be the obvious target, so therefore they might expect him to have protection - but ofc a N2 doc isn't guaranteed.

and maybe Fusion was just too useful to town

[EspeciallyTheLies]

ETL - what's the argument for a massclaim?

We have enough possible confirmations to justify getting the missing pieces from other people. If you were town, I'd expect you to understand the motivation for this intrinsically and the fact that you dont is telling.

What I see you doing is stalling while you watch everyone else.

You claim. Now.

[BoroPhil]

You aren't going to bully me. If you want to lynch town, go for it.

I don't see how declaring when I'm active and giving free information to scum is going to automatically help town.

If I me, Smudger, Zebe and DrP all declared N4 (for example) cop now, how would that help town ?

[Zebe]

Weird wagon on Boro. surely we should follow ETL and Zebe are they not driving this game now? Zebe your thoughts?

Mmmk. I don't think Boro wagon is weird.

and maybe Fusion was just too useful to town

Obviously. I'm no use for town.

--

Readlist that was requested the last day. Not a big one though, only brief explanations. I'm not really active, as you might have ( ) noticed.

Town:
ETL for obvious reasons.
DP mainly because of Kalimar wagon. Many of his posts look very town too.
BB for Kal wagon too.

Null:
Lucky, leaning town. I have a general town read on him. I could've put him on town too, but I'm not sure of some posts.
Aptil, I dunno about 932.
Smudger not being town enough.

Scum:
BoroPhil. Makes sense. Lucky as scum makes less sense.

Therefore...
VOTE: BoroPhil
I could see aptil or Smudger as the last scum.

[BoroPhil]

Fwiw Zebe I think you are on the right track, Lucky/Aptil are probably the last 2. Maybe Smudger, but I liked his posts yesterday and if he was scum he would have jumped on my wagon today. So, has to be Aptil/Lucky for me.

[Lucky2u]

Boro is L-1 btw. Not sure why zebe or Boro didn't mention this, no unintended hammers.

[BoroPhil]

Another example of Lucky trying to seem town. was that post necessary?

Think hard people.

[BoroPhil]

I think you are fucked anyway tbh Lucky, because even if you get me lynched today, I'm sure they'll go for you as a result tomorrow.

[Lucky2u]

I think you are fucked anyway tbh Lucky, because even if you get me lynched today, I'm sure they'll go for you as a result tomorrow.

Well you should be OK with this turn of events then if you are town. Of course I was aware of that when i hammered Kalimar, and I'm aware of it again today. I have no problem shooting with my life on the line if I miss. Think about what that means.

[Lucky2u]

And yes it was necessary. If your town you'd know that. Another player could walk in, vote you and claim the hammer was unintended. We would have no way of knowing the truth and if you flipped town it could lead to two mislynches in a row.

[BoroPhil]

I absolutely don't have any problem with it. I recognise I got it wrong on Kalimar and would be number one target today, I hoped people would try and analyse it a bit more, but meh. But if it catches you, it's a good deal for town.

[BoroPhil]

anyone who can count knows it is L-1. it doesn't need to be shouted out.

[DoctorPepper]

Another example of Lucky trying to seem town. was that post necessary?

Think hard people.

Lol dat bus. Its okay we're getting lucky next anyway.

Also no, im pursuing you because of YOUR actions yesterday and NOT Kalimar's flip

[BoroPhil]

fine, if you are going after Lucky tomorrow I'm happy.

punish me and town for thinking you were scum if you like, but it's a strange tactic.

[BoroPhil]

but just to clarify, you think Lucky hammered his dead partner yesterday (true) and then today decided to lynch his other partner?

[Lucky2u]

I hammered Kalimar, and your accusing me of bussing a scum Boro...

Whatever. As long as Boro is scum, I'm OK trading two Scum for my life.