Town won 46% of Matrix 6 games

[emeraldemon]

From the wiki (and updating some), there have been 84 finished games since the introduction of Matrix 6 to the Newbie queue, and town won 39 of those, which is 46.4% .

This stat was easy enough to munge from the wiki, but with just a little more info it would be possible to answer some interesting questions, like

• Do SE's and IC's win more often than beginners?
  Are particular rows or columns of the matrix town or scum-favored?
  Are people more likely to replace out of scum slots?

Most mods use a template, and with so many games of a known format it seems maybe possible to create something that would read these first posts and gather statistics, maybe even updating the wiki periodically. It could create some cool datasets to test theories about good play, fairness, or even particular players' styles.

[quadz08]

I believe that there are some threads about this already, though I could be wrong. They certainly aren't that recent though, so the updated total win % is good to know.

[Toomai]

• Do SE's and IC's win more often than beginners?
  Are particular rows or columns of the matrix town or scum-favored?
  Are people more likely to replace out of scum slots?

I decided to start going through the newbie Matrix6 games to get some of this figured out. Here's the preliminary data from the first 15 games (1370 - 1384):

Once a slot was replaced for any reason (unless it was pregame and the role PM was clearly not read), it counts as "replaced" and not either a win or a loss (because once a slot is replaced its original player type is effectively junk). Modkills were also ignored.

So far, it looks like ICs win slightly more than newbies and SEs, and the difference between newbie and SE is negligible, but with only 15 games so far I can easily see that changing. The difference of replacement rate between town and scum (43% to 47%) is so far not significant.

[Aegor]

That replacement rate is out of control.

[TheButtonmen]

That replacement rate is out of control.

26.6% IC replacement
38.1% SE replacement
45.3% Newbie replacement rate

The only troubling one is the IC replacement rate but it's not an easy problem to address because if we start adding severe punishments to make IC's less willing to replace out then all we'll do is end up with fewer /in'ing.

[saulres]

Counterpoint: ICs shouldn't be teaching newbies that replacing out is okay.

[AgentOrange]

But replacing out IS okay. If you have a legitimate reason to replace out, then there shouldn't be any negative stigma. Besides, for IC's don't you think it would be better to replace out and have a fresh one join in than having an IC that's too overwhelmed to properly teach the game stay in anyway just to set an example?

[Cabd]

for IC's don't you think it would be better to replace out and have a fresh one join in than having an IC that's too overwhelmed to properly teach the game stay in anyway just to set an example?

Short of a death in the family or something of similar seriousness, why the fuck did you sign up to IC if you can't follow through on your promise to teach?

[talah]

That's a bit hyperbolic.

[Aegor]

That replacement rate is out of control.

26.6% IC replacement
38.1% SE replacement
45.3% Newbie replacement rate

The only troubling one is the IC replacement rate but it's not an easy problem to address because if we start adding severe punishments to make IC's less willing to replace out then all we'll do is end up with fewer /in'ing.

You do not see a problem with almost

half

of the new players replacing out and over

one-third

of experienced players replacing out? Are our standards really that low?

But replacing out IS okay.

No, it is not. It should only occur in exceptional circumstances. Circumstances that maybe occur to 1% of players.

If you have a legitimate reason to replace out, then there shouldn't be any negative stigma.

Right, but "life happens" is not a legitimate reason. These are newbie games; they are the first impression of the site to many players and certainly the first experience in a game. We should not be okay with that experience being marred by frequent replacements. It sets an improper tone for the site and simply reinforces the message that games are not commitments to be taken seriously.

Besides, for IC's don't you think it would be better to replace out and have a fresh one join in than having an IC that's too overwhelmed to properly teach the game stay in anyway just to set an example?

It would be better to join only those games to which you can commit fully.

[Tierce]

This is an off-topic subject, but I'm sick and tired of that excuse and frankly people keep using it because they think replacing out when you're not having "fun" is acceptable. I have rather strong words about this matter because it is reaching ridiculous levels and happens in games where the moderators specifically ask for attention to flaking behaviors. Because people like mastin2 make Mafia "guides" where they encourage replacing out of games.


Cabd's take is not hyperbolic. Replacing out is against the spirit of the game and against the commitment you made when signing up to play. Sure, you

want

to have fun, but you cannot forget that Mafia is a psychological game, and "fun" is not mandatory and is not going to be present during a good part of the game.

In fact:

And I've always thought the golden rule was to have fun. Yes, I do understand that it's a commitment to join a game, and I do understand if I would be banned from joining any of Vi's games for a while because of the instability of my slot in this game...but I wasn't having fun, and I figured someone else would've had more fun in my slot in this game. Someone else would give the slot more attention than I was giving it. And I've never been a fan of players that complain that their play was worse for outside reasons...that's exactly what I was doing.

The golden rule is

not

to have fun. Yes, it's a game. But it's also a

psychological

game. Part of the scum's goal is to ensure the Town is so demotivated with their circumstances that they do not have the drive to read the game, to lynch well, to form Townblocks, etc. That can include deliberately sowing apathy. Replacing out because you're not having fun is not an acceptable excuse. If you're Town and you're not having fun, there's probably something in the game that needs fixed, and it's up to the playerlist to do it, not to

quit

. When you replace out, you are abandoning your win condition, so "replacing out for someone to give more attention to the slot" i.e. "for someone to be more proTown" damages a balance that was

deliberately

created

inside

the game with an event from

outside

the game.

If the game is not fun, MAKE it fun. Fight through the apathy. Go up against the scum who are producing it. Yeah, it's hard, but it's a valid scum strategy and your job as Town is to thwart that from

inside

the game. Replacing out because you're not having "fun" is not acceptable in our games and violates the integrity of the game. You made a commitment to play the game when the game started, and it was not a commitment to "play while the game is fun for me".

Besides, for IC's don't you think it would be better to replace out and have a fresh one join in than having an IC that's too overwhelmed to properly teach the game stay in anyway just to set an example?

This kind of argument is a self-serving excuse for why you choose to flake on a responsibility. You're doing it for the sake of the

game

?

No, you're not. You're disrespecting the moderator, the other players, yourself. You're giving up on something you made a commitment to when you know that one of the characteristics of the game is the psychological play, and then justifying it saying that you're making the game "better" by letting someone "better" replace in. Then why did you choose to play in the first place? Wouldn't it be better to let the "better" player in from the start while you keep to a hobby better suited to you than forum Mafia?

You should stay and set the goddamn example. You know what the example is? It is someone who can handle responsibility, who recognizes apathy, and who manages to power through it despite the odds. THAT is the example that ICs should be setting, and that is the example all of our (special snow) flakes should be following. They are not, they are being

encouraged

to replace out of games.

There's no excuse for replacing out outside of a real life emergency. An

emergency

. Something that could not have been predicted and that is actually hindering your ability to make time for this responsibility, not "hey I just remembered I am spending the summer elsewhere so I have to replace out".
Plan your schedule and know yourself. Not just how much time you think you have, but how much psychological stamina you have to handle a game where apathy is a real power and a tool. There's no shame in not signing up to play, but there's quite a bit of shame in being refused entrance to a game because you have a flaking history.


Do I like playing scum? No. Does it kill my motivation to play? Yes. Have I ever replaced out of a scumgame? No. I signed up to play, I play until the moderator tells me I'm no longer part of the game. Because that's the promise I made to the moderator when signing up to their game, to the playerlist that I'm in, and to myself.

[talah]

Just to clarify, I *do* think there is a problem with replacements at MafiaScum, and especially in Newbie games, and *especially* with newer players, which I think exacerbates the problem for SE's and IC's, because let's face it, the main cause of replacing out of any Mafia game is FRUSTRATION.

And before anyone takes the light-hearted version of that as the truth of it all, that can pretty quickly lead to issues with mental health.

If you try to make MafiaScum some kind of elitist-oriented -we-should-stigmatise-unwanted-behaviour- community, -- as opposed to the slightly more correct but still euclidian -we-should-not-accept-unacceptable-behaviour-, then I think MafiaScum is actually being quite backwards. (Please note the "If" at the start of that sentence.) When it comes down to it, there probably should be some kind of penalty periods for replacing out out of games which make people think twice about doing it, especially for first-time players. Players who have been around for longer should be expected to give a *damn good reason* for replacing out if they wish to avoid a penalty, and that might be something that is subject to review by someone other than the mod, and also not something which is subject to first-decision-is-final-type penalties.

People who hang around this joint long enough, ARE a part of the community. You/(let me say it, "we") just need to be inclusive and fair, and consistent. And reasonable. So we need to start with rules which are clear-cut, and they shouldn't be overly onerous, and they should take into account personal circumstances if a person wishes to challenge a penalty.

And I'm just going to say it: three strikes and you're out is the scummiest fucking idea that the great nation of USA has ever adopted. The problem is that the number three has nothing to do with anything except a mechanism for permanent bans for reasons which don't have to be explained further. So don't do it. People as opposed to spambots are people and deserve second chances. Penalties sure. But permanency is not a thing.

[talah]

Yeah cabds take is hyperbolic comparing replacing out of a game to a death in the family.

My last post didn't consider your post, so reading.

[Tierce]

Yeah cabds take is hyperbolic comparing replacing out of a game to a death in the family.

My last post didn't consider your post, so reading.

He's not comparing it. He's saying that if you don't have an actual emergency in your life, you shouldn't replace out, because a Mafia game is a commitment you chose to sign up for (especially an IC case). His wording is kind of funky, but read it in a different order:

"Why the fuck did you sign up to IC if you can't follow through on your promise to teach, short of a death in the family or something of similar seriousness?"

[talah]

There's no excuse for replacing out outside of a real life emergency. An emergency. Something that could not have been predicted and that is actually hindering your ability to make time for this responsibility, not "hey I just remembered I am spending the summer elsewhere so I have to replace out".
Plan your schedule and know yourself. Not just how much time you think you have, but how much psychological stamina you have to handle a game where apathy is a real power and a tool. There's no shame in not signing up to play, but there's quite a bit of shame in being refused entrance to a game because you have a flaking history.

Yeah this cannot be the hard and fast case. There's no way to pre-assess the psychological impact of a psychological game. Sure you might get better at handling that aspect of things but it's not the only aspect of why a person might replace, either.

[talah]

What if I have a death in the family, is that a good reason to replace out?
What if out of nowhere my boss challenges my work performance, " " ?
What if I break up with my girlfriend, " " ?
What if I'm severely frustrated by the game, " " ?
What if I'm just frustrated by the game, " " ?
What if I'm not having fun anymore and want to fuck off from this game, " " ?

Etc etc, obviously the " " in each example is just "is that a good reason to replace out"

[Tierce]

There's no excuse for replacing out outside of a real life emergency. An emergency. Something that could not have been predicted and that is actually hindering your ability to make time for this responsibility, not "hey I just remembered I am spending the summer elsewhere so I have to replace out".
Plan your schedule and know yourself. Not just how much time you think you have, but how much psychological stamina you have to handle a game where apathy is a real power and a tool. There's no shame in not signing up to play, but there's quite a bit of shame in being refused entrance to a game because you have a flaking history.

Yeah this cannot be the hard and fast case. There's no way to pre-assess the psychological impact of a psychological game. Sure you might get better at handling that aspect of things but it's not the only aspect of why a person might replace, either.

Which is why I have no problem with the newbie replacement rate. Yeah, it's kind of irking, but they are new, testing the waters, seeing if they like this game. Doing so outside of a forum specifically designated for that (Road to Rome) is disrespectful, though.

I'm not saying that the psychology of the game is the only reason someone replaces out. But by and large, as you said, people replace out due to frustration with the gamestate. Instead of being encouraged to fight through it, and thus learn progressively to deal with a big aspect of Mafia, we have material on MD by at least one newbie-respected user that encourages replacing out of games. That directly goes against the "we-should-not-accept-unacceptable-behavior" line. People keep replacing out because the game is not "fun", because someone else can do "better", because they are bored, because they fell behind and can't be bothered to catch up, because they are being pressured to contribute. These are aspects that need to be dealt with

inside

the game. You don't get up and abandon a board game in the middle of a session because the cards are against you right then, you do your best to turn the game around, even if you lose in the end--and that's what a lot of Mafia players fail to grasp when they choose to replace out for menial reasons.

There

are

actual circumstances in which I am more than willing to understand why someone replaces out. Merely because they are not having "fun", however, is not one of them.


PEdit: The last three ones are terrible excuses. The first one obviously makes sense. Please,

please

, in the case of the first one, just replace out instead of using it to garner sympathy. You have a right to your grief and my heart goes out to you, but using it to get a foothold in the game is disgusting, and yes, I have seen it happen. I hope that moment never comes again.


It's a not a hard and fast line when it comes to real life events, but I

do

draw it at claims of apathy/boredom/not having fun.

That's part of the game

.

[talah]

Agreed on the last paragraph.

Although I think probably the first four are legitimate, the last three should have a shortish (couple of weeks?) game-joining sanction unless challenged, and the boss and girlfriend examples really deserve judgement calls from admin and token signup embargos.

Something like that so as to prevent excessive replacing but take into consideration the onus on players to be responsible, themselves.

ed: couple of edits.

[Alduskkel]

@OP: I'm most interested in seeing the stats on the individual setups of Matrix6.

And yeah, replacing out should have some moderate penalty for more experienced users, that can be wavered on a case by case basis by either the game moderator or the list mods (if the latter then the system needs to make it at least something of a hassle for the user so that the list mods aren't overworked).

Replacements are just plain annoying and are a disruption to the natural game state. As a player it can be annoying because it drastically changes a slot, especially if I'm scum and have been carefully cultivating the game state so far. As a moderator it's annoying for obvious reasons, but especially when there are so many replacements that deadline extensions are required.

[Mr. Flay]

I just have to ask if the replacement stats include Day-Zero (never confirmed) replacements for Newbies. In one sense those should probably count a little less, but overall the rate is definitely too high. I didn't realize people were actually recommending tactical replacement.

tl;dr See sig.

[Toomai]

@OP: I'm most interested in seeing the stats on the individual setups of Matrix6.

I'm working on that too, and while it's not statistically full enough to publicize yet, it's...interesting.

I just have to ask if the replacement stats include Day-Zero (never confirmed) replacements for Newbies.

I did not count replacements that were pregame, or if the mod had made it visible early Day 1 that they hadn't "picked up their role PM" (or similar). Once a slot makes any post it's fair game.

EDIT: Also note that if a slot gets replaced more than once, it still counts as a single "replaced slot". So the rate's probably even higher when you take into account slots that get replaced multiple times.

[Zachrulez]

@OP: I'm most interested in seeing the stats on the individual setups of Matrix6.

And yeah, replacing out should have some moderate penalty for more experienced users, that can be wavered on a case by case basis by either the game moderator or the list mods (if the latter then the system needs to make it at least something of a hassle for the user so that the list mods aren't overworked).

Replacements are just plain annoying and are a disruption to the natural game state. As a player it can be annoying because it drastically changes a slot, especially if I'm scum and have been carefully cultivating the game state so far. As a moderator it's annoying for obvious reasons, but especially when there are so many replacements that deadline extensions are required.

My current policy is a one year blacklist from any of my future games for replacing out without a legitimate reason. I'd encourage other mods to adopt similar policies.

Specifically on the subject of newbie games, that rate of replacement for ICs and SEs is unacceptable. Even though SEs don't have any teaching capacity, it still sets a terrible example when they're casually replacing out of games.

[Elscouta]

Is there a reason there isn't a 1 or 2 month ban on joining new games when replacing out?

I mean, if you had a real life issue that was bad enough to justify replacing out, why would you rejoin a game immediately?

[Zachrulez]

Is there a reason there isn't a 1 or 2 month ban on joining new games when replacing out?

I mean, if you had a real life issue that was bad enough to justify replacing out, why would you rejoin a game immediately?

For games outside of the newbie queue, I'd leave it up the mods the refuse entry to these kind of players.

In the newbie queue though, I think there probably should be some kind of punishment.

[TheButtonmen]

I didn't realize people were actually recommending tactical replacement.

[citation needed]

Ftfy.

You do not see a problem with almost

half

of the new players replacing out and over

one-third

of experienced players replacing out? Are our standards really that low?

I'm entirely okay with half the newbies replacing out actually, it's their first time playing mafia and they may very well find out that this isn't a game for them. Mafia is already a very niche game and our varient of it just doubles down on that so it's not suprising at all that a fair number of newbies decide to move on rather then stick around.

Because people like mastin2 make Mafia "guides" where they encourage replacing out of games.

That's not an entirely accurate description of what Mastin said, he made the case that if a player has completely lost interest in a game that it's better that they just replace out rather then just posting when prodded and killing the game. I'm not even entirely sure I disagree with him as I'd rather play with / moderate an active involved player then a slot which just posts every 72 hours until they're eventually lurker lynched.