Open 538: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[Lucky2u]

Ok I have one problem with that post. The way you format it seems like your under the impression that only one player can have an action a night.

It was randomly drawn in a way that all the doctors could have been night 1 together.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I am assuming yes. But we have not had any ccs, right? You can move around the unknowns as much as you want. It doesnt change the analysis. Any way, why do you have a problem with it?

[anorway]

Deadline: (expired on 2014-02-11 18:00:00)

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Vote Count 4.2

[L-4] Thor665
[L-4] BBmolla
[L-4] Smudger
[L-4] EspeciallyTheLies
[L-4] aptil

[L-3]

Lucky2u

: Smudger
Not voting (5): Lucky2u, Thor665, BBmolla, EspeciallyTheLies, aptil

Edit: Fixed formatting and names and such.

[Lucky2u]

Because you out Boro and zebe in night 1 and 3 as possibles but they are possibles for all nights, not just those 2. If a cc happens, it can't because of the night number. Multiple people can have the same role and night number. I just want to make sure you know that so you don't lynch someone because they claimed the same night number as another person.

[Lucky2u]

VOTE: smudger

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I just want to make sure you know that so you don't lynch someone because they claimed the same night number as another person.

Where did I ever indicate I was going to do this? Also why do you assume the responsibility of a lynch falls to me? Or rather, why are you giving me that responsibility and taking none of your own?

[Lucky2u]

You didn't, I'm not, and I'm not.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

K so explain your smudger vote. Is it just cuz he's voting you?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

@Thor and BB: Can you guys please give me your impressions of smudger and lucky? Anything standing out to you from D1/D2 or the wagons?

[BBmolla]

If I was going purely off wagons, aptil is probably town?

[Thor665]

@Thor and BB: Can you guys please give me your impressions of smudger and lucky? Anything standing out to you from D1/D2 or the wagons?

That would require me to read Day 1 and Day 2 - what part of my 'I'm lazy' comment isn't sinking in here?

If I was going purely off wagons, aptil is probably town?

How so?

[BBmolla]

It'd theoretically make more sense for it not to be him, cause that'd mean two scum were on the two man DP wagon, I'd assume someone would bus Kalimar.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

-.- Thor. I didn't realize you weren't going to read

any

of it. Some of your comments gave me the idea that you were reading things. It's not like this is one of those 100-page games where scumETL convinces her partner to fake his gunsmith guilty on you.

@BB: My read on aptil is mostly gut, but based on the wagons, I see Lucky on all of them. Looking specifically at Kalimar's wagon, he's the only one there who isn't flipped and isn't you or Thor. I'm questioning my feelings on this one because I had really strong suspicions about him D1 and it was diffused, and his later play didn't line up with what I know of his scum game. Taking meta out of the equation completely points firmly at Lucky again. (And there's also the fact that Boro was all "smudger's the towniest SOB on the block" so I dunno.)

[Lucky2u]

The remaining docs are Thor (cleared) Aptil, smudger, and me.

From my point of view, knowing I am town... The choice is between Aptil and smudger. I choose smudger. I could be wrong. I was wrong about Boro because I used the same logic in my decision there. This time I have a 50 percent chance of being right. Smudger or Aptil, whichever is town, has the same opportunity. Smudger has chosen.

Aptil, who do you think is scum between us two?

[Thor665]

@Lucky - why couldn't both be scum?

[Lucky2u]

@Lucky - why couldn't both be scum?

Actually... They could. Right now, claims and dead flips have us at 7/5 docs/cops. Obviously 1 doc claim is guaranteed to be scum. After that... It could be either a doc or a cop I suppose. So potentially aptil and smudger are both scum.

[Lucky2u]

I didn't look at it that way I suppose.

[Thor665]

Why not?

[Lucky2u]

Too focused on who the guaranteed scum is I guess?

[Thor665]

How is he guaranteed besides the PoE that assumed Aptil was town?

[Lucky2u]

Because there are claims that equal 7 doctors. The maximum amount in this setup is 6.

[Thor665]

So it's just that at least one Doc is guaranteed? That makes sense by itself, but then I feel it once again begs the question - why did you presume a town/scum situation when it could also have been a scum/scum?

[Lucky2u]

My first instinct went to it being split. I don't really have a reason why I didn't think that through.

[Smudger]

To answer the PoE question. If all the claims are yo be believed the April and Lucky are scum. Sorry that was not clear, but that is what I meant. The second question concerning Thor and BB is BB claimed he hsx investigated DP/Thor. There was no counter claim. We have 5 dead cops so there is a possibility that BB and Thor are the scum team. Thus Brilliant okay by them eatlier, my feeling is its a remote possibility and thus April and Lucky are scum. Not either or but both of them.

[Smudger]

That is crap above and why you should not post when on a phone. Hopefully you can see what I was trying to say