Newbie 1471: Italian Ice (Game Over!)

[Sakura Hana]

I really would like to know how Ika's throught process went from TS = Kill it with fire to TS = Sheep.

Ika isn't scum.

Well, I disagree! for now at least, because I haven't seen anything on ika's posting that screams super town to me.

[Nachomamma8]

Because he has offered nothing to relieve my suspicions and keeps acting survivalistic as fuck.

I don't stall the robw lynch, I disapprove of it entirely. If we really really have nothing better at deadline and no one else wants to lynch bjc, I will hammer rob but not happily.

P-edit:
I suppose my next biggest suspicion would be nacho, for his big weak case on a lurker who is unlikely to defend himself. Lynching lurkers is not the way to go in newbie games and nacho knows that.

What do you mean with equal chance of being scum?
Everyone starts out with a 25% chance of being scum (8 other players/2 scum) and I have seen nothing from robw to chance this percentage, while I think bjc has a much bigger chance to flip scum.
This equal percentage talk is awful.

Please tell me why you think lynching lurkers in a newbie game is a bad idea.

[Nachomamma8]

Hi guys, I've been reading since i sent the replacement request and I'm currently at Page 17.

Reads as of now:
Town: Nacho, the snowman avatar guy, TS.
Scum: bjc, Rob, ED (which means im wrong about at least 1 of these)

Not in any specific order.

Unvote

In case my predecessor was voting someone.

I was going to unvote Rob because your posts the past few pages have seemed pretty town. This makes a lot more sense.

[Nachomamma8]

I would never personally call nacho godly in his scumhunting, but I've known him for ages.

That's because you're a hater!

[Nachomamma8]

Well weekend's coming hopefully i can hear from Nacho and he starts showing me his PoV and I can start working with him and Ray since those 2 are my strongest reads atm. And then we form a nice happy townbloc and PoE the hell out of scum and win \o\ \o/ /o/

Ika is town.
Ray is town.
You're town.
LMB is town.
Bjc is town.

I actually liked emerald's recent string of posting, starting to hate Tier's posting more and more because it reads like he's defending a scumbuddy in Rob. There's no reason why someone should be so adamantly against lynching a lurker and I don't believe that's a usual hate in place for TierShift to hate lynching lurkers, sooo

[Nachomamma8]

I may be willing to compromise with ED if ED can convince the town to vote TS.

I'm much happier lynching TierShift than I am ED at this point.
I have no idea why the Rob wagon is being ignored to such a large extent, though. Are people really this afraid of lynchigng a lurker?

[TierShift]

Please tell me why you think lynching lurkers in a newbie game is a bad idea.

Lurking is a non-tell and even more so in newbie games and that's just the way it is.

Let me rephrase it: lynching lurkers for the fact that they are lurkers in newbie games is bad.

If there's more to it, it's fine. If it's a deadline compromise, it's fine. But actively pushing for them because of lurking. No.

[Nachomamma8]

bjc and ika let me ask you, what do you think about tiershift's read on me and how it's progressed this game?

Let me answer this: I think it's bullshit.

[TierShift]

I don't believe that's a usual hate in place for TierShift to hate lynching lurkers, sooo

Hmm?

[Nachomamma8]

Please tell me why you think lynching lurkers in a newbie game is a bad idea.

Lurking is a non-tell and even more so in newbie games and that's just the way it is.

Let me rephrase it: lynching lurkers for the fact that they are lurkers in newbie games is bad.

If there's more to it, it's fine. If it's a deadline compromise, it's fine. But actively pushing for them because of lurking. No.

Lurking isn't a non tell. It is if they replace out, but if they manage to stay in the game while lurking like hell, it isn't.

I also have plenty of townreads elsewhere, which I'm sure is what Sakura is alluding to in my push on Rob. Every townread I get from an active player is a greater probability that the lurker is scum.

[TierShift]

That last part is true. The first part isn't. Lurking like hell while staying in the game is a non-tell for newbies, really.

If PoE it's fine.

[Nachomamma8]

That last part is true. The first part isn't.

Lurking like hell while staying in the game is a non-tell for newbies, really

.

If PoE it's fine.

Now support this statement without acting like it's accepted fact.

[Sakura Hana]

Well i'm going to

Unvote

for now.

[TierShift]

It's my experience so far. I've read a few newbie games, where lurking really hard was done mostly by town. I've played one, in which a lurker who checked in once every few days was town.
I'm failing to see how it is a scum tell. If they don't want to play, the don't post. If they want to play, they'll talk as either alignment.

But this argument is going nowhere. We won't ever agree.

Btw, I have already expressed my interest in lynching rob if not bjc.

[Nachomamma8]

I can agree if you back the statement up even a little bit.
What newbie games have you read?

[Nachomamma8]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... rt_order=d
1450: Scum were Tool and Phokdapolees.
Tool has 38 posts (9 more than the mod), Phok has 12.

[TierShift]

A few, when I just started out. I have no idea which anymore.
I could do a quick search, looking at postcounts in newbie games and determining alignemnt of hc lurkers.

[TierShift]

Hey, I'm talking about newbies here, not SE, if that wasn't clear.

[Nachomamma8]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=28482
Scum replaced out twice in this slot: Fegelein had 86 posts (9 more than mod), Karnage had somewhere around the realm of 60.

[GuyInFreezer]

VC 1.11

Rob W (L-3):

Nachomamma8 | RayFrost

ika (L-4):

Rob W

bjc (L-3):

Lynch Me Bro | TierShift

TierShift (L-2):

emeraldemon | ika | bjc

Not Voting:

Sakura Hana

The deadline is in Feburary 3, 5:00 PM EST.
Deadline counter: (expired on 2014-02-03 17:00:00)

[Sakura Hana]

Also if you want my replace into newbie slot info:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=28585 (Scumslot) Newbie slot.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=30224 (Scumslot) Newbie slot.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=31070 (Scumslot) Newbie slot.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=28769 (Townslot) Newbie slot.

As an addenum:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=31510 <- Wisdom was replacing Mario who lurked and replaced out who was replacing a newbie (Scumslot) Newbie Slot.

[Sakura Hana]

So yeah i have all the reason in the world to believe newbies do lurk and replace out as scum more often than as town.

[Nachomamma8]

+

Okay I now have stats for the first 48 Newbie Matrix6 games (a bit more than half) (games 1370 - 1417).

Spoiler: MOAR GRAFZ

So the IC replacement rate isn't as bad as we thought it was. But the Newbie stats tell the story -

a newbie is 1.5 times more likely to replace out as scum

. The lack of parity for setups 1 and 2 is also evident.

I'll try to post once more once I get through all consecutive completed games.

If newbies replace out as scum more than they do as town, doesn't it make sense for them to lurk more as scum than they do as town...?

[TierShift]

This is awkward. I could swear I've seen at least a couple newbie games with hc lurkers but now I've checked the activity levels of like 10 and not a single hc lurker.
Then, I have a sample size of one and that one is town, rothwell in http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=33357

Even though I can't back up my argument now, I still don't see backup for yours. You are quoting all non-newbie slots.

The graph that you quoted, however, shows something else. Newbie who replace out are scum (I really hope this doesn't become a scumtell), but Rob is not replacing yet and both me and bjc replaced into a newbie slot, so using that on rob is a bit moot.

[Sakura Hana]

You are quoting all non-newbie slots.

All of the games I linked were newbie slots replacing out of a scum slot.