Newbie 1471: Italian Ice (Game Over!)

[pisskop]

he was defending an essentially empty slot. he may as well have taken his logic/defense from a wiki or FAQ.

[pisskop]

I would like a link to replacement data, esp from newbie games. I was under the impression most dropouts were town.

[Sakura Hana]

he was defending an essentially empty slot. he may as well have taken his logic/defense from a wiki or FAQ.

Not really, Nacho provided statistical analysis taken from 48 newbie games, and i showed personal experience from 5 newbie games where i had been part of, and he still rejected it, found a way to say no. Like saying the slots werent newbie slots (when it was obvious they were)

[Sakura Hana]

Anyway here's the statistical analysis: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p5631022 there's also some downloadable excel file or something the person is providing.

[Sakura Hana]

Also I linked earlier to this page: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=775 in this thread where me and Nacho discussed with TS all the statistical stuff, im surprised you missed it during your analysis.

[Sakura Hana]

EBWODP: Wrong link: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=725

[pisskop]

ive already claimed, tier/hana have some splanin to do, and i cant account for lurker.

Tier has made it clear he was defending the slot because it was a zero content slot. now its not.

1) am i scummy enough to lynch?
2) will my death answer more than anothers?
3) where is lmb? seriously.

pedit: thanks. on phone so i would have been at that for awhile. . .

[pisskop]

a newbie is 1.5 times more likely to replace out as scum

so, That leaves us with a 60% 40%. Ill take those odds.

[bjc]

a newbie is 1.5 times more likely to replace out as scum

so, That leaves us with a 60% 40%. Ill take those odds.

Talking about ika?

I won't take those odds. If you're talking about ika this is extreme survivalist on your part.

It's pretty much you, TS, or ED. It's in that order, too.

[pisskop]

a newbie is 1.5 times more likely to replace out as scum

so, That leaves us with a 60% 40%. Ill take those odds.

60% of replacement are slotted as scum
40% are town.

[Sakura Hana]

It's pretty much you, TS, or ED. It's in that order, too.

I already explained the difference with the 1st 2, those were people that didnt even read their role PMs so they wouldn't have known they were scum.
I can imagine the feeling of newbies as scum, considering I had the same type of feeling of "OMG I DONT WANNA DO THIS!" on my second newbie (1st scum) game, but at least i didnt replace out due to pressure.

[bjc]

It's pretty much you, TS, or ED. It's in that order, too.

I already explained the difference with the 1st 2, those were people that didnt even read their role PMs so they wouldn't have known they were scum.
I can imagine the feeling of newbies as scum, considering I had the same type of feeling of "OMG I DONT WANNA DO THIS!" on my second newbie (1st scum) game, but at least i didnt replace out due to pressure.

? What?

I'm not using the replacement stats in any way. RobW did pick up his role PM, and pisskop replaced RobW IIRC.

So many replacements, sheesh.

So again: Kop is #1 on my list for being scummy+being very little help to the town regardless of alignment (unwillingness to help the town at times is key), followed by TS, and then ED.

[Sakura Hana]

It's pretty much you,

TS, or ED

. It's in that order, too.

I thought you were referring to this (since i remember TS replaced in too) but then i saw ED wasnt a replacement so now I see what you mean now. Anyway

vote: pisskop

[pisskop]

So, hana/fferlyt/pisskop/lmb. we all placed in, each w/a 60% chance of being a scum.

nacho, im going to browse your provided data when i get time. again.

[pisskop]

hana, do you have specific evidence that those who did not pick up pm are exempt from this?

[GuyInFreezer]

VC 1.16

pisskop (L-1):

Nachomamma8 | emeraldemon | bjc | Sakura Hana

bjc (L-3):

Lynch Me Bro | TierShift

fferyllt (L-4):

pisskop

Not Voting:

RayFrost, fferyllt

fferyllt replaces ika.
The deadline have been extended for 24 hours.

The deadline is in Feburary 6, 5:00 PM EST.
Deadline counter: (expired on 2014-02-06 17:00:00)

[Sakura Hana]

So,

hana

/fferlyt/pisskop/

lmb

. we all placed in, each w/a 60% chance of being a scum.

nacho, im going to browse your provided data when i get time. again.

You should probably re-read what you quoted earlier...

a

newbie

is 1.5 times more likely to replace out as scum

so, That leaves us with a 60% 40%. Ill take those odds.

And even if you look at the data again:

SEs replace out more often as town than as scum, but they rarely do so (Also i just realized that ICs replace out more often as scum... woot?)

[bjc]

Okay, so.. Will someone PLEASE hammer. This day has gone on long enough.

[Sakura Hana]

hana, do you have specific evidence that those who did not pick up pm are exempt from this?

A person who has read their role PM has info from the game already that can affect their replace out.
A person who hasn't read their role PM has no info whatsoever so they didnt even know their alignment so it cant be indicative of anything.

Also these statistics dont count people that are force-replaced by the mod or ppl that dont read their role PM iirc (it's said somewhere in that thread).

[bjc]

RayFrost, do your part, sir. fferyllt with the cute girl avatar adding a few more of her opinions won't change the game between now and the next day(s).

[Sakura Hana]

In either case tho, for a page or 2 i've had non-statistical related reasons to suspect him anyway, and he's ignoring that.

[pisskop]

You are subject to the same statistics. :p

abbott even dropped out like robw.

but seriously .lurkers no lurking.

[Sakura Hana]

You are subject to the same statistics. :p

abbott even dropped out like robw.

but seriously .lurkers no lurking.

x2

[Sakura Hana]

Does anyone know whether pisskop is always this dense or something.

[pisskop]

sigh. wow, look at those scum se replacement win rates.