Open 538: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[BBmolla]

1. I think I'm really transparent in my thought process
2. I lynched Kalimar when I could have easily lynched DP instead
3. I cleared DP which I probably wouldn't have done as scum
4. I'm being really obnoxious and I personally think that's more indicative of me being town?

It's not going to mean much coming from me though.

[BBmolla]

There's been a death in my family and I don't have time/attention for this right now. V/LA until Saturday. If this is too much, feel free to replace, but I will try to check in a few times at least this week.

I'm sorry for your loss, my condolences.

[BBmolla]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=32904

I just played this as town and got lynched in MYLO, you can maybe look through it to see if there is anything useful?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Lucky moved from Cheery to DBK - so if he's scum then he...what, decided he didn't like being part of the uber scum push on the scum infested Cheery wagon? Meh, not really buying that, nor that the wagon was so heavily scum peopled. Doesn't quite add up.

This is kind of a huge revelation for me dude... it hits a strong chord for me.

Regarding BB: On D1, he claimed N0 cop with [some result - I don't remember], and it caused a bit of a spark and he gave it up quickly enough that no quicklynch occurred. I don't believe that BB would make this kind of gambit as scum (and why I say if he is scum, good show, he deserves it). Second, even though he wasn't very active, it hasn't been inconsistent. His level of activity has remained consistent throughout the game, so I think it's rather hard to believe he could be actively lurking, cuz when he did show up he wasn't just cheerleading, he was actually offering his own conclusions (imo). His posting yesterday and today has been pretty townie too, I think, especially regarding his own investigation and why he made that choice, and I think DP(you) was a good investigation to make. I had originally considered investigating DP myself. Paired with your wagon analysis above (and what I'd already done looking at the wagons from D1/D2, after my result on Zebe), smudger HAS to be scum. The only way DP is scum is if BB is scum, and all three cannot be scum, so that means Thor = definitely town. This, along with the above points on BB, means BB=town.

With your statement I quoted, I'm feeling pretty confident about aptil+smudger.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

2. I lynched Kalimar when I could have easily lynched DP instead

Apparently p-edit doesn't like me. This too, I forgot about that.

(Thanks by the way, for the condolences.)

[Thor665]

2. I lynched Kalimar when I could have easily lynched DP instead

Support this please, because if true you'll sell me.

[BBmolla]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p5585880

[Thor665]

Meh - Boro was hardly a real contender at that point. Am I missing something?

[BBmolla]

Deadline: (expired on 2014-01-18 19:00:00)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Vote Count 2.3

[L-6] Mr_Blonde
[L-6] Zebe
[L-6] Tammy
[L-6] BBmolla
[L-6] BoroPhil
[L-6] EspeciallyTheLies
[L-6] aptil
[L-5]

Smudger

: Lucky2u
[L-4]

Lucky2u

: EspeciallyTheLies, Smudger
[L-3]

Kalimar:

DoctorPepper, BBmolla, Tammy

[L-2]

DoctorPepper:

Kalimar, BoroPhil, Zebe, aptil

Not voting (1): Mr_Blonde

BB you still have more to say or is that just it for now?

I kind of think the lucky wagon sucks, and that we should lynch Kalimar instead.

?

[Thor665]

Why didn't you mention the Pepper wagon at that stage?

[BBmolla]

I don't think DP is such a terrible vote fwiw. I just like a Kalimar vote better. And your contributions today have been decent.

I didn't like the wagon as much as Kalimar's

[Lucky2u]

I need to catch up...

[Thor665]

Hurm...

Vote: Smudger

[Smudger]

@Smudger - looking some stuff over, I think you're scum. Is there any real town evidence for you?

What do you mean by town evidence? All I can say right now is I am not confirmed town. I would like to believe my ISO may provide that to you all but that's up to how you read it. Yes I could be scum, but I know Aptil and Lucky are based on what I know.
Ok the reason you believe I am scum is clear and you cover the only possible alternative to the move of vote by Lucky, why is that not the case, it is highly likely to have been so from where I am sitting. In addition where is Town Aptil in all this?

If we are going to look at Votes and previous lynches then let's look at the Kalimar lynch. I was going to hammer Kalimar and gave intent. Lucky had done so before me, but time was counting down.

Who is hammering? I will if no one will. Back in 12 hours to hammer if its not done

But then Lucky Hammers:

VOTE: Kalimar

So who was going to bus who? Look at the lead up to that lynch.

[Thor665]

What do you mean by town evidence? All I can say right now is I am not confirmed town. I would like to believe my ISO may provide that to you all but that's up to how you read it. Yes I could be scum, but I know Aptil and Lucky are based on what I know.

I suppose it's up to me to read it - but BB was willing to take up the challenge of presenting a town case on himself and he sold me pretty well.
What would you say is/are the core reason(s) you should look town?
Like, has anything happened that really showed you as pro-town or not a Kalimar scumbuddy or something?

Ok the reason you believe I am scum is clear and you cover the only possible alternative to the move of vote by Lucky, why is that not the case, it is highly likely to have been so from where I am sitting. In addition where is Town Aptil in all this?

I'm sure this question makes sense to you - but you lost me. I feel like you're asking me a lot of things in one big jumble. Parse it out please?

If we are going to look at Votes and previous lynches then let's look at the Kalimar lynch. I was going to hammer Kalimar and gave intent. Lucky had done so before me, but time was counting down.
[snip]
But then Lucky Hammers:
[snip]
So who was going to bus who? Look at the lead up to that lynch.

So...basically Lucky gave intent.
Then you gave intent.
Then Lucky hammered before you got back to hammer.
And...that makes it look more like a Lucky bus of Kalimar than a Smudger bus of Kalimar...?
I don't follow. What am I missing here? Looks like you stated a hammer promise after a hammer promise was already made, making it a meaningless promise at that stage unless Lucky had failed to deliver, and then Lucky delivered. I'm not sure why that should make either of you look particularly better or worse than the other.

[Smudger]

What I am saying is

Your VCA reasoning seems clear. You provide a thought as to why Lucky might have moved his vote, i.e. He did not feel comfortable as scum on a scum heavy wagon. But you dismiss that. My point is why could it not be the case as to me it is.

I also ask where "town Aptil" is in all this. In fact IIRC he has stayed away from most wagons. That does not seem particularly town to me.

The hammer shows what it shows, you should be suspicious of us both and, from my PoV, lucky is scum and bussed his buddy.

[Smudger]

This is interesting also

My town reads :
DBK
Wake
Smudger
Scum reads:
BB
Cherry

Where are Lucky and Kalimar?

[Thor665]

This is interesting also

My town reads :
DBK
Wake
Smudger
Scum reads:
BB
Cherry

Where are Lucky and Kalimar?

Where are Zebe and gamsimbre?

Your VCA reasoning seems clear. You provide a thought as to why Lucky might have moved his vote, i.e. He did not feel comfortable as scum on a scum heavy wagon. But you dismiss that. My point is why could it not be the case as to me it is.

I expressed that theory as a 'why would that even be the case'? For that to be the case literally all the scum would have had to hop on the wagon at that stage, and for some reason, with both his scumbuddies clearly focused on getting 'Town A' lynched he decides to hop off and vote 'Town B' for some reason? ...it just feels weird as a scum action. I don't see why he'd bother.

Do you?

I also ask where "town Aptil" is in all this. In fact IIRC he has stayed away from most wagons. That does not seem particularly town to me.

No, it doesn't, but the whiny reaction to me calling out the bad play made me feel like Aptil was more likely town - because I insulted his town play and then he got a little kvetchy at me. Felt townish.
Also, the way Kalimar dinged Aptil for hypocrisy and buddied to Fusion over attacking Aptil really didn't feel much like a scum/scum interaction to me.

The hammer shows what it shows, you should be suspicious of us both and, from my PoV, lucky is scum and bussed his buddy.

I will admit to not being a huge fan of Lucky's slot, but I feel like you're a more assured bet.

[Smudger]

Where are ETL and DP? Yes people are missing but those 2, Lucky and Kalimar stick out now.

Not really I don't see why he bothered, and maybe it is clutching at straws on my part but it should be a consideration.

You need to point at the Kalimar Aptil thing as it did not ping with me. If it is as you say it is, ummm yes it could well be a scum v scum.

[Thor665]

Where are ETL and DP? Yes people are missing but those 2, Lucky and Kalimar stick out now.

Eh, that's weak - you have a theory scum team and are using as proof of their scumminess that they aren't on his town or scum reads list, but he had multiple players not on that list, so it's just as good a tell to prove that those players are his scumbuddies.
Frankly, I would expect at least one of his buddies to appear on that list as either scum or town, and maybe the other to be in the null field. So I am really not being sold by this.

Not really I don't see why he bothered, and maybe it is clutching at straws on my part but it should be a consideration.

I thought I had considered it and dismissed it already?

You need to point at the Kalimar Aptil thing as it did not ping with me. If it is as you say it is, ummm yes it could well be a scum v scum.

Go iso Kalimar for Aptil - his iso isn't huge and it's in there.

[Smudger]

I thought I had considered it and dismissed it already?

you had yes but why should others. anyway we can go around in circles and its not helpful at all. As far as I am concerned this is wrong and the lynch is either Aptil or Lucky.

[Smudger]

Eh, that's weak - you have a theory scum team and are using as proof of their scumminess that they aren't on his town or scum reads list, but he had multiple players not on that list, so it's just as good a tell to prove that those players are his scumbuddies.

most of those not on his list are either dead or basically cleared town in your mind and most minds including mine. My point was now when you look at that list who is not on it one confirmed scum and one unconfirmed regardless of the others who are not on it. but hey you think its weak, I dont. I feel its a subconscious action on his part to distance himself. This also ties into this theory of yours surrounding the Aptil Lucky Kalimar posts you speak of. Lucky makes a post about rolling a dice and voting Aptil, Aptil raises it as a concern calling him out and Kalimar berates him for it as Hypocracy. You do not see that as scum v scum v scum?

and you find this a town hissy fit..

Look man, if you want me to replace out i will. I am not scum here . It's just that i am working for 14-15 hrs a day , so can't login here . I have got up at 5.30 today to make that post .

Thor are you sure you are town?

[Thor665]

Thor are you sure you are town?

Well let me check...oh, wait, snap, I'm scum this game. How silly of me!

[Smudger]

Well let me check...oh, wait, snap, I'm scum this game. How silly of me!

nice, but Ì think you understand what I mean.

[Thor665]

Okay...in that case my answer is 'Yes, I think it looks townish'
Wow, the question's answer is much more useful when answered straight up.