Newbie 1471: Italian Ice (Game Over!)

[pisskop]

I think bjc is town.

hes wanted tier dead half the game, for one.

[pisskop]

for two, bjc the amount of controversy bjc suffered was caused in great part by tier.

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho.

ffery?

[Nachomamma8]

pisskop, why do you think i'm confirmation biased?

[fferyllt]

Nacho.

ffery?

Why do you think pisskop is scum?

Don't give me that statistical shit, either. Statistics work in aggregate for trends, but what we have here is a data point, not a trend.

[fferyllt]

Nacho.

ffery?

Why do you think pisskop is scum?

Don't give me that statistical shit, either. Statistics work in aggregate for trends, but what we have here is a data point, not a trend.

[Nachomamma8]

poe i never believed in any statistical shit

[bjc]

Honestly, I think scum killing the cop was a mistake. Now we have a little insight into the setup.

After Tier's flip I think several of us were set to get a wagon going on ED very early on. That's exactly who I was going to vote until I saw the flip. It would've helped them in that case, but now there's not really a major suspect.

[fferyllt]

poe i never believed in any statistical shit

Hm.

Have you read his completed newbie scum game? I scanned it for tone and textual body language on day 1 after I replaced in. I'll take a look at the night kills.

ED was the only player who still had a strong scumread of him, I think.

[pisskop]

nope your allcapsbold vote supports my bias

tbh im fairly sure its hana by now. or you. or maybe hayate for lylo.

[fferyllt]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=33701

The player who was the night 1 kill had him as town on the prior day. He quickhammered the cop on day 1 and wasn't quicklynched the next day.

The night kills may have been planned by his scumbud, TSO, though. The mafia QT link wasn't posted in that game thread.

[pisskop]

So.

No, we talked. I listed three people in order of who I wished to kill, number 2 was the D1nk.

Does my willingness kill ppl who townread me mean anything in this context?

[Hayate Yagami]

For the record, Scum-Hayate's Devious Gambit this game would apparently be: Call the scum that was bandwagoned to L-1 near deadline town, explain why I thought him to be town, continue to push an emergency counterwagon to save my buddy, yet instead of just staying off MS near deadline and make it dependent on somebody else to push a lynch through, hammer him myself, when it pretty clearly would grant me no towncred given how I had previously made it clear that I thought Tier was town. I'm... not sure exactly where the scum benefit is in me doing all this?

I also don't think that pisskop's meta on killing people he thinks is town means all that much, given how emerald flipped to him being town in their last couple posts.

Went out to dinner and have schoolwork I need to do, but I promise that that analysis is coming.

Also, bjc, why are you continuing to ignore my questions? I have less of a scumread on you given Tier's flip, but you really aren't helping me get a firmer read on you.

[Nachomamma8]

poe i never believed in any statistical shit

Hm.

Have you read his completed newbie scum game? I scanned it for tone and textual body language on day 1 after I replaced in. I'll take a look at the night kills.

ED was the only player who still had a strong scumread of him, I think.

I can't say I have.
I can say that I'm having trouble finding alternatives, though.

[bjc]

For the record, Scum-Hayate's Devious Gambit this game would apparently be: Call the scum that was bandwagoned to L-1 near deadline town, explain why I thought him to be town, continue to push an emergency counterwagon to save my buddy, yet instead of just staying off MS near deadline and make it dependent on somebody else to push a lynch through, hammer him myself, when it pretty clearly would grant me no towncred given how I had previously made it clear that I thought Tier was town. I'm... not sure exactly where the scum benefit is in me doing all this?

I also don't think that pisskop's meta on killing people he thinks is town means all that much, given how emerald flipped to him being town in their last couple posts.

Went out to dinner and have schoolwork I need to do, but I promise that that analysis is coming.

Also, bjc, why are you continuing to ignore my questions? I have less of a scumread on you given Tier's flip, but you really aren't helping me get a firmer read on you.

unvote

I don't feel like answering your questions really helps progress the game, but I don't remember what the questions were in the first place. I'll have more to add to this game tomorrow.

[Hayate Yagami]

Okay, let's do this then.

Interactions with TierShift:

Spoiler: Abott/Sakura

Abbott ignored Tier for the entirety of the early game, only making one response post to him, and never actually attempting to push on him or make much effort to get a read on him. Yet, when he posts his reads later on:

Updated read list:

ED - townish
BJC - townish
RF - patronizing townie

TS - mildly scummy

Nacho - scum

ika - ? (ISO needed)
RW - ? (post or die)
LMB - ? (post or die)

With absolutely no explanation as to why.

Afterwards, Abbott puts literally no pressure on Tier whatsoever. Not a vote, not a FOS, no interrogating. He makes no effort to actually get a firmer read on Tier, or actually make a case for Tier being scum.

And suddenly... 300 posts later...

scum

BCJ
ED
ika

--
RobW
Nacho
--

town

TS
LMB
RF

Tier is suddenly pro-town. Why? Who knows. No explanation.

That's all we get from Abbott in terms of Tier.

When Sakura comes in, she also has an early Tier townread.

Reads as of now:
Town: Nacho, the snowman avatar guy, TS.
Scum: bjc, Rob, ED (which means im wrong about at least 1 of these)

With no explanation, but to be fair she was still reading the game thus far, so maybe I shouldn't expect detailed reads from her as of yet.

After bjc attacks Tier and ika pushes for a Tier lynch on the previous page, however, Sakura's opinion on Tier appears to begin to shift.

Yeah, also TS going a bit down in the town ladder, but still nullish-town because of his last post.

After this, when ika and bjc continue to put pressure on Tier, Sakura shifts, appearing to agree that Tier's #620 is scummy, but saying that she was trying to sort Tier, despite not asking Tier any questions or interacting with him. After this, she states that bjc's posting seems more sincere than Tier's, but quickly adds that they aren't "the only two players in the game", and proceeds to push her Ika scumread instead. She then unvotes 12 posts later, and gets caught in a debate with Tier about whether or not newbies are more likely to replace out as scum.

Then, suddenly in #794, she's fine with a Tier lynch, but pushes for Rob instead, despite saying that Tier was a priority lynch in 798. Then Sakura continues to softly push Tier scum with rob/pisskop, but continually puts actual pressure on the latter and continues to vote him. She then unvotes, saying that she is reconsidering her read, but it just goes back on a few posts later, after pisskop suddenly gets a scumread on TS. Then not much happens in the way of Sakura-Tier interactions (she implies that he's scum if Rob/pisskop is scum a couple more times, but little else, until momentum has shifted towards a Tier lynch, and then Sakura finally votes Tier, like she was saying she wanted to do way back in #798.

So, basically, Abbott has almost nothing to say about Tier, aside from a sudden flip from leaning scum (with no explanation) to one of his stronger townreads (with no explanation). Sakura, meanwhile, says that Tier is scum as pressure from bjc and ika builds on him, but ties it completely to pisskop scum, making it a suspicion incredibly easy to back out of should pisskop flip town. Then, after saying that Tier would be a better vote than Rob, ends up putting all her pressure and votes on Rob, until it is clear that there is much more momentum to lynch Tier.

Sooo... yeah. Feels pretty scummy to me.

Spoiler: bjc

Okay, going through all 200+ of bjc's posts looking for bjc-tier interactions was slightly tedious, but more or less, bjc has a light townread on him at the beginning, but once Tier votes bjc, he continually says that Tier is suspicious (including in an incredibly awkward line where he votes ika but says that Tier and emerald are the two that should be investigated at night), and makes plenty of posts toward Tier that are aggressive in nature. Although he swings from ED to Pisskop to Tier a good deal, Tier does continually remain one of his top sources of pressure/voting. He even says in 509 that he wants to call Tier town, but one key reason why he isn't is because Tier is pushing on him. (He also does list Tier "not being helpful" and "uncooperative/anti-town posting" as other reasons for his scumread, though). Then, after continually calling Tier "meh" (along the same level of scumminess as Abbott), he votes Tier, and continues to attack him.

Then, when it looks like he could get a pisskop lynch, he swings to that. Then, finally, when momentum starts to push towards a Tier lynch, he goes back to Tier.

Really, I don't see bjc being scum with Tier. The only way I can imagine it happening is Tier for some reason deciding to ram his one scum-partner under the bus as hard as possible, and thus bjc responding in kind. The sudden shift to pisskop and going back to Tier only when momentum is pushing towards that lynch is a bit odd, but given his lynch-happy nature at the end of the day, isn't all that surprising or particularly out-of-character. Overall, bjc looks pretty town from Tier interactions.

Spoiler: ika/ffery

Ika starts out with a town read on Tier for most of the early game, but then suddenly pushes against Tier in 239, accusing him of fence-sitting. He then starts to push at Tier for most of the game, saying that Tier's confidence in his rob read was solely based off him being scum and knowing Rob to be town (something I agree with, now that Tier has flipped), and even says "I'm not going to budge on them [Nacho and Tier]" unless damning evidence is presented against somebody else in 257. Overall there isn't much Tier interaction for a bit (he says that he'll post a case on Tier and Nacho, but it never actually happens) until his next read list, where he lists Tier as scum. Then, after his exercise (after attacking Tier once again), he says that they should lynch Tier as, from the data, he feels that that is where they'll get the most information. He then votes Tier for the rest of his time in the game, after attacking bjc and emerald for a bit, until he is replaced out.

Overall, ika's sudden turn on Tier just doesn't feel like bussing, given how little pressure there was on Tier at that point, and more like town legitimately scumhunting. In addition, I can't imagine scum saying things like this-

You're making it too easy for the scum, but okay.

Apparently anything I post is discredited/wrong/survivalist by the fact that I'm scum according to Tier.

if you flip town im gunnung at teir next most likely jsyk.

Because it feels like ika is more or less putting pressure on himself to attack Tier tomorrow, through setting Tier up as an independent scumread. Whereas when you tie your scumread to connects with another player, the way Sakura did, you can easily back out once that other player flips town. And overall, most of ika's posts pressuring Tier just feel genuine, and not scum posturing.

ffery comes out saying that she didn't really like Tier in her read through. She then places a vote on Tier, and it stays there until she turns her attention to Sakura, putting some mild pressure on Tier all the while. Even when she's voting Sakura, she doesn't appear to forget to apply pressure to Tier, and implies that she's still happy to vote him. Then she unvotes and attempts to do some reading on emerald pre-hammer. The only really odd thing is that ffery says that she might not be around for deadline, yet... still doesn't hammer Tier, in case she misses out. On a whole this could be attempting to delay the hammer on her buddy so that they could potentially get a no lynch and Tier could survive to the next day, but this feels like a stretch to me.

On a whole, ika's read on Tier feels sincere, and ffery's hunting on Tier feels at least somewhat genuine as well; the Sakura suspicion feeling more like a genuine read shift rather than a scum-driven counterwagon, particularly the way ffery doesn't use it as an excuse to stop trying to read Tier. The only thing that slightly bugs me is the lack of a hammer, but ffery could still have been invested in giving Nacho and Ray time to come back, and just hoping that she would be able to make it back by then. It's nothing huge.

So ffery looks decently pro-town due to Tier interactions as well.

Spoiler: Nacho

On a whole I agree with Nacho's 250, and feel like him not putting Tier in his reads list is, if anything a sign that he isn't Tier's buddy. Why waste the opportunity to distance/defend, and draw attention to a possible connection between the two of you?

The two then spend some time debating over the rob read; I'd say this is overall relatively null, though it looks a bit... uncoordinated, I suppose, for a scumteam. Why would Scum!Nacho need to put in so much effort to convince Scum!Tier to side with him on pisskop?

However, after this, Nacho puts Tier on his "Lean town" list without much explanation. After Tier continues to defend Rob, however, Nacho turns on him, saying that he's beginning to think that Tier is scum. Nacho begins attacking Tier and stating that he would prefer to lynch him over, say, emerald. After the debate over Rob has ended, he doesn't seem to have much to say about Tier, but then swings his vote to him over Sakura, after the Sakura counterwagon begins to build.

Like I was saying earlier, I see Nacho's vote on Tier as a pretty clear sign that they aren't buddies; Nacho could have either continued to stay on the pisskop wagon in an attempt to prevent the Tier wagon from gaining momentum, or shifted to Sakura. Instead he helps the wagon on his scumbuddy start to gain momentum, for no apparent reason and not too much benefit. And the Tier pressure and interactions prior to that really don't feel like Scum-Scum to me, particularly the argument over Rob.

Spoiler: Rob W/Pisskop

Rob W, of course, has absolutely nothing to say about Tier.

Pisskop's interactions with Tier are more interesting. Despite the constant defending Tier did to his slot (which if scum is Tier desperately not wanting his buddy to get lynched D1), Pisskop refuses to reciprocate, and initially states that Tier is null. On the other hand, a couple posts later, and Tier is one of the towniest players in the game, only below Sakura and Ray.

That said:

tier is looking town and i must admit I see his reasoning. will my death help clear him?

This doesn't look like scum defending scum AT ALL. Like, I don't see any scum motivation for pisskop to post this. None. It wouldn't help Tier one iota for pisskop to flip; if anything, it would make Tier look much worse to pretty much everybody. Yet Pisskop is willing to just roll over and die, if it will help Tier. This feels really, really genuine to me.

On the other hand, pisskop then suddenly turns on Tier later on, saying that he and Sakura had "avoided direct confrontations", a point that I'm not certain I agree with. He then wagons Tier, supposedly for information. Yet, he then turns and says that he has no plans to lynch Tier. This would be some of the most awkward distancing ever if pisskop was scum, which really makes me think he isn't.

On a whole I would say that kop's interactions with Tier look pretty genuine, and if he's scum then it just feels so awkward and weird and their interactions don't really seem to make all that much sense. Tier's hard-defense of Rob feels like scum trying to get town-cred by defending lynchbait to me.

Spoiler: RayFrost

Overall, Ray doesn't talk about Tier all that much. But when he does, it mostly feels genuine. For instance, the frustration in 134 when he's trying to sell the Nacho case to Tier feels real to me, and it really doesn't feel like scum trying to convince his buddy to hop on his wagon. This snapping at Tier feels real too:

Heh. It's actually pretty hard to genuinely defend a scumbuddy, whose scummy things you can see and need to avoid and then make it seem like you didn't.

So, who are you gonna defend starting now?

Since I'm not scum, I don't really need to do this now do I?

I'll stick with how I've been playing, thanks.

He then has Tier in basically the middle of the pack in his reads list, which is admittedly a decent place for scum to place their buddy; not high enough that you're obviously buddying, but not low enough to feel the need to bus. His next comment on Tier is all the way up to #1193, when he votes for Tier to try and stop a pisskop lynch, since he thinks that that's a wagon that could gain traction. On a whole, I don't see Ray starting a wagon out of the blue on a scumbuddy in order to avoid lynching easy-lynch pisskop. Even if you want to keep him alive for a mislynch later in the game, your lone scumbuddy is just such a precious resource that I can't imagine Ray not trying to start a wagon elsewhere.

So yeah, really after analyzing everybody's interactions with Tier, Sakura's slot looks the worst to me quite easily. I already posted a case on Sakura yesterday, so I guess I'm right back to where I started.

VOTE: Sakura

I may look Tier-Sakura interactions and do a wagon analysis later; this has kind of worn me out a bit. So many posts...

I don't feel like answering your questions really helps progress the game, but I don't remember what the questions were in the first place. I'll have more to add to this game tomorrow.

Helping me get a better read on you and hopefully convince me that you're town isn't "progressing the game"? Okay. It's this kind of obstinant behavior that kind of makes me want to vote you, but I'm really beginning to think you're just a stubborn townie.

[pisskop]

o.o

lets lynch her now. so we can all shake hands and move on. I may lack the finesse and logical determination of ya'll but I called it.

ill.mark a second V down for myself.

[bjc]

Heh. Consider me stubborn townie at the moment.

[pisskop]

but . . . but. . .
you can lynch me D3, or in jmos upcoming game. Keep trying, eventually youll get me!

[pisskop]

and ftr, i was looking at tiers arguements with others when I noticed abbott had none and sakura's were weaksauce.

[fferyllt]

Nacho,

What's your Sakura read?

did you look at the interactions between Sakura and me on page 49? And her earlier interactions with pisskop?

She didn't vote Tier until after I said I was going to and you put a vote down. Prior to that, I don't think the Tier wagon was really going anywhere.

[Nachomamma8]

did you look at the interactions between Sakura and me on page 49? And her earlier interactions with pisskop?

yep. what about them is supposed to pursuade me to vote her?
did you read abbott's play? did you not get a great townread on him?

[fferyllt]

I got a pretty good townread on them, but not as good as pisskop.

I could be biased because I would totally have replaced into that slot. I'm going to have to marinate a while in some ISOs I guess.

[pisskop]

Lynch her. We don't need him, and you can lynch me tomorrow if We're wrong. Im telling you its Sakura and Nacho if Im wrong.

She buddied the bullocks out of nacho, and he cant let go.

[GuyInFreezer]

Bump