Xenosaga Mafia (Game Over)

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 3.2

[2] Kazekirimaru (mastin2, Aegor)
[2] MafiaSSK (Skullduggery, ActionDan)
[1] mastin2 (macmollie)
[1] orcinus_theoriginal (Cephrir)
[1] Skullduggery (Angry Frat BROs)

[8] Not Voting (Gooner, Kazekirimaru, MafiaSSK, Metal Sonic, orcinus_theoriginal, Venmar, sangres, zMuffinMan)

With 15 alive, it is 8 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2014-02-27 21:00:00)

[sangres]

I posted my reads list in the neighborhood last night so that in case we were dead today it would make its way into the game thread. This is the lower end of my pile, players I was willing to lynch.

Unsure: Kaze, zmuffin, Mastin (could move him down one)

Scummy: Skullduggery, MafiaSSK (depending on claim), Metal Sonic (depending on 3 neighborhood explanation)

I had Mollie in my unsure pile, but Nacho talked me into moving her up a notch.

[macmollie]

Mollie's reason for scumreading mastin feels a bit off. The whole "mastin would leash an SK" argument feels largely irrelevant in the current game state and mastin's spiel about SKs in this game felt legit to me more than anything else shes said.

Mollie you aren't trying to get suspicion started in mastina's direction are you?

Skull/Mollie?

P-edit: I guess, but shooting a BG is like putting one in the bank so when the Cop claims, you dont have any obstacles. Not saying I 100% believe Pie was shot, but its possible. Its possible someone Docgtor read her after the kill failed and she was still alive.

fuck you ap your interpretation looks forced and I swear to god if I didn't see you do this as town I would think you were scum. do you really want a lord tater redux?

and I am not throwing suspicion mastina's way I AM VOTING HIM COS THAT COMMENT SEEMS VERY DIFFERENT THAN THE MASTINA THAT I KNOW

gotta go now will be back later

[sangres]

I feel better about MS because there was something in the game thread about 3 neighborhoods prior to his post. In fact it was posted on day 1.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Sorrymollie had to be sure

SkullDugg lynch ahoy though

[ActionDan]

No. We lynch mafiassk

[Angry Frat BROs]

Ugh ok. What do you make of mastin defending him?

[Aegor]

I had a townread on Aegor, but need to look back on that.

^ This.

Im not sure why I was townreading Aegor or why I stopped, but I don't feel extremely great about him. Feels like hes just along for the ride I guess and not really exploring avenues of interest.

Are you serious? ISO me. I voted Kaze Day1 and got flack for the vote "coming out of nowhere" and being totally random even though my post had a thorough explanation of my vote. I was one of the few to actually comment seriously on Kagami's posting history and look at associative tells. My posts in my neighborhood are the same. had links to Which is it? Are my votes out of left field and "bizarre," or are they products of my being "just along for the ride?" They certainly cannot be both.

SSK being town requires the nightkill to have disappeared some other way.

ninja, the scum targeted pieguy for the lolz (possible given 2 anti-town kills?), I don't know but Im paranoid and Im gonna waffle anyways? I dont see why SSK would be making the maf kill? could be SK I guess.

The scum did not necessarily target pie. Pie could have died defending someone else who was targeted. His bulletproof could have disappeared N1 when he guarded sangres.

What I'm wondering is, why did pie die instead of sangres last night?

Why would sangres die? Do you know something I do not?

Cabd I get, but the other kill looks odd to me. pie was essentially a VT after the save, and killing him only really served to help validate the "someone NK-targeted sangres N1" theory(especially since pie was 1-shot bulletproof). Killing sangres would have left us with pie, SSK, and Dan alive to duke it out and cause more chaos today, which sounds like a better position for any anti-town role to hide in.

You are still assuming that pie was targeted. How on earth do you justify that assumption?

What I'm wondering is, why did pie die instead of sangres last night?

Simple answer: Because Pie protected Sangres again???????????????????

Still not getting why we are assuming that sangres was targeted again.

I WAS WONDERING IF HOW PIE'S ROLE WORKED AND IF HE WAS SHOT N1 BUT THE BULLETPROOF PROTECTED HIM AND THEN HE SAVED SOME1 LAST NIGHT WHOM SCUM TARGETED IS THAT NOT HOW THAT ROLE WORKS

[Aegor]

^MACMOLLIE'S EXPLANATION SEEMS TO ME TO BE THE MOST LIKELY ONE. I THINK PIE WAS PROBABLY NOT DIRECTLY KILLED.

[Skullduggery]

skull are you softclaiming a neighborhood yes or no

Are you asking me if I'm in more than one neighborhood? If so, no.

Like, I don't see SSK as scum in spite of the potentially-incriminating result, and I believe Cabd said that looking at SSK's iso made it plausible for him to be town with that result.

Which means that you think ActionDan tried to kill Sangres on Night 1, right? Why is ActionDan-Scum more plausible than SSK-Scum in your eyes?

The SK's clearly not someone who'd be wise to leash (both sources of kills have been tremendously anti-town), so they're basically an extra scumbag, just one without interactive tells.

You make it sound like you know which of the Night 2 kills was committed by our theoretical Serial Killer. Do you?

Not exactly sure how, but...SSK is town. Dan's obviously town, too.

...what.

Then who burned up Pieguy's Bulletproof on Night 1? It had to be either SSK or ActionDan. (I'll only entertain the possibility of Ninjas and Strongmen and the like if SSK flips Town.)

Do you think it's possible that SSK is going out of his way to replicate his Town play to fool you since you seem to be skilled at reading him?

If I'm correctly reading some of the hints that people have dropped, it sounds like there might be at least three separate Neighborhoods in this game. I originally thought that there had to be one Scum somewhere between you, AFB, and Metal Sonic, but if there are multiple Neighborhoods, then that theory might not be accurate. If there are three Neighborhoods, I wouldn't be at all surprised if at least one of them was all-Town. What do you think about the abundance of Neighborhoods and do you agree or disagree with my observations in this paragraph?

What hints were these that led you to think 3 neighborhoods?

UNVOTE

Already answered this in 2007.

I just ISO'd Cabd. 722 is the post that made me think that Cabd was in a neighborhood too.

pie was essentially a VT after the save

Pieguy was one-shot Bulletproof, not one-shot Bodyguard. Once his Bulletproof was burned up on night one, he was still a Bodyguard.

17. Skullduggery- dunno. might be scum just bc of neighborhoods; I hate that logic but the flandre possible slip makes this more reasonable

What "flandre possible slip" are you referring to?

she was moaning about being the lynch today in the neighborhood last night I would think if she were town she would here getting her last licks in and scumhunting like a mo fo but she isn't doing that.

Patience. This is my normal level of activity. I'm not the kind of player who makes a dozen posts a day.

[Cephrir]

17. Skullduggery- dunno. might be scum just bc of neighborhoods; I hate that logic but the flandre possible slip makes this more reasonable

What "flandre possible slip" are you referring to?

The post snagres pointed out where he seemed to know one of the neighborhoods (maybe).

she was moaning about being the lynch today in the neighborhood last night I would think if she were town she would here getting her last licks in and scumhunting like a mo fo but she isn't doing that.

Patience. This is my normal level of activity. I'm not the kind of player who makes a dozen posts a day.[/quote]
These things are not as related as you think they are.

[Kazekirimaru]

Why would sangres die? Do you know something I do not?

It made sense to me in the scenario I apparently contrived in my head earlier.

You are still assuming that pie was targeted. How on earth do you justify that assumption?

Confusion.

[Aegor]

You are still assuming that pie was targeted. How on earth do you justify that assumption?

Confusion.

But you are unjustifiably ignoring the other reasonable scenarios, i.e. those in which pie died but was not targeted.

[Kazekirimaru]

Okay?

I'm not exactly on-point right now. I got that. Notice my vote isn't on anyone atm.

What's your take of the situation as it is?

[ActionDan]

Which means that you think ActionDan tried to kill Sangres on Night 1, right? Why is ActionDan-Scum more plausible than SSK-Scum in your eyes?

lmao. I can't tell if this is busywork or not. in either case you should feel bad presenting this as if mastin is low enough to think it

[ActionDan]

sangres was likely the kill N1. he didn't die because Pie protected him.

no one gives a fuck what happened n2.

[mastin2]

Not exactly sure how, but...SSK is town.

?

Exactly that?

I don't give a damn what the role evidence says. I'm sticking by that judgment. This feels wrong. Everyone's interactions with him.

So... you were changing your mind, and that one literally completely innocuous post changes your mind back to lolcephisscumfornoreasonimwillingtoexplain?

Yep!

Makes me think one of mastin and kaze is a serial killer

Kaze, sure, but I play SSK so that I can

plausibly

claim vig. My kills still serve a serial killer agenda. I'm killing threats to me. But I'm not going to kill a player that I myself consider obvtown (and generally, not a player the town feels is obvtown even if I feel they aren't), specifically so that I can claim vig with truthful targets if I need to. (Also, as a serial killer, I would be far more prone to taking the stance of leashing serial killers. )

VOTE: Metal Sonic.

Kaze: SSK can potentially be town because we don't know how pie's role worked.

By the way, you guys are all idiots. Especially those who've played in Gundam, who know EXACTLY how a 1x BP works. And especially ESPECIALLY those who know action resolution. The BP is a passive ability--it activates when pie would die, protecting him from death once, no matter the timing of the attempted kill. The BG an active ability. It allows pie to protect someone from death, but having him be shot in their place. Thus, pie could have been shot at either night OR successfully protected either night. It could be one than the other, or the other and then the one. Pie shot, Pie shot. Pie protect, pie protect. Pie shot, pie protect. Pie protect, pie shot. None of these are any more nor less likely than one another. All are viable, because all are within the boundaries of the role.

oh hell no mastina you are always banging on about how leashing the sk is always good for town

*points to nightkills*

Yeaaaaaaah, no. On N1, Varsoon, and either pie or sangres were killed. On N2, Cabd and either pie or pie's target were killed. IF. If the serial killer's kills were plausibly "good". They could be leashed. But None of the N1 kill options are remotely like that. None of the N2 kills (aside from the incredibly-unlikely pie-protected-vigbait) are even remotely like that. The serial killer has made it clear that they're killing town. Intentionally. If they killed town accidentally, sure. Mercy. If they killed scum, sure. Mercy. But they didn't. They aimed for either obvtown players or conftown players. They're scum. Just scum that doesn't have scumbuddies.

If the serial killer changed their tune suddenly tonight, maybe.

Maybe

I'd give mercy. Assuming the change was legitimate, and that they've honestly changed their tune to that alternative rhythm. But if they continue to kill like they have? Or even have the intention of continuing to kill like they have? (Thus the maybe, rather than definitely.) Hell no, they don't get the leash. Because they're not willing to BE leashed. Yes, I advocate leashing serial killers. Yes, I think it good strategy. Yes, I normally would support it. But not THIS serial killer. Because THIS serial killer is clearly of the opinion that they are not to be leashed. We're not dealing with a rabid dog to be tamed. That, I'd support. We're dealing with a wolf, who's

hunting

humans. That, I cannot.

Which means that you think ActionDan tried to kill Sangres on Night 1, right? Why is ActionDan-Scum more plausible than SSK-Scum in your eyes?

No. In fact, I scumread Kaze for pulling this exact stunt. (And to some extent, Cephrir, too.)

Then who burned up Pieguy's Bulletproof on Night 1? It had to be either SSK or ActionDan. (I'll only entertain the possibility of Ninjas and Strongmen and the like if SSK flips Town.)

Or pie got killed N1. As I said, that's my MO as scum. It could be someone else's MO, here, too. I just don't know whose.

Do you think it's possible that SSK is going out of his way to replicate his Town play to fool you since you seem to be skilled at reading him?

Possible, but not probable. Honestly, the player more likely to be guilty of this is zMuffin.

[mastin2]

Also, I can't help but noticing a lack of deaths of those in the neighborhood. This very well could have meaning, but heck if I know on what.

[ActionDan]

Tbh past behavior shouldn't dictate future behavior of the sk.

[Aegor]

What's your take of the situation as it is?

My take is that either you or MafiaSSK dies today. And honestly, mastin's reluctance to lynch SSK makes me want to lynch SSK more. I will probably move my vote soon.

I don't give a damn what the role evidence says. I'm sticking by that judgment. This feels wrong. Everyone's interactions with him.

Please explain why we should collectively ignore evidence in favor of your nebulous and ill-supported "judgments" and "feelings."

...The serial killer has made it clear that they're killing town. Intentionally. If they killed town accidentally, sure. Mercy. If they killed scum, sure. Mercy. But they didn't. They aimed for either obvtown players or conftown players. They're scum. Just scum that doesn't have scumbuddies...

While I am indifferent about "leashing" the hypothetical SK (I am not sure I even know what that means), that reasoning makes no sense. If the SK killed Cabd, then you are correct. If the SK targeted pie, then you are still correct. But if the SK targeted someone guarded by pie, then you are not necessarily correct. There is a suppressed premise in your argument that pie would target someone who is obvtown. And yet pie may have targeted someone he felt was town and the SK targeted that same person thinking he was scum.

Therefore NKA is dumb. Let us move on plz.

[mastin2]

Please explain why we should collectively ignore evidence in favor of your nebulous and ill-supported "judgments" and "feelings."

...Because I said so?

While I am indifferent about "leashing" the hypothetical SK (I am not sure I even know what that means), that reasoning makes no sense. If the SK killed Cabd, then you are correct. If the SK targeted pie, then you are still correct. But if the SK targeted someone guarded by pie, then you are not necessarily correct. There is a suppressed premise in your argument that pie would target someone who is obvtown. And yet pie may have targeted someone he felt was town and the SK targeted that same person thinking he was scum.

Yet we

do

know the N1 target of pie was sangres. Pie's actions on N2 may not be known, but it's a probability that he'd protect someone widely or even universally townread, like sangres. Thus, my comment: outside the incredible improbability of pie-protecting-vig-bait, the serial killer killed town, KNOWING they were killing town. Yes, it's possible that pie protected, saaaaaaaay, Metal Sonic. But it's such a damn unlikely scenario it's practically impossible. The serial killer has been aiming for town. Period.

[ActionDan]

Serial aimed for town because scum was lynched D1. If we mislynch town today sk may try to kill scum. It's a balancing act

[Aegor]

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p5687313]...Because I said so?

Not good enough.

Yet we

do

know the N1 target of pie was sangres. Pie's actions on N2 may not be known, but it's a probability that he'd protect someone widely or even universally townread, like sangres.

But that is not guaranteed. And I would not say that there are very many universal townreads. Nor is there any guarantee whatsoever that pie guarded someone YOU consider a universal townread.

Thus, my comment: outside the incredible improbability of pie-protecting-vig-bait, the serial killer killed town, KNOWING they were killing town. Yes, it's possible that pie protected, saaaaaaaay, Metal Sonic. But it's such a damn unlikely scenario it's practically impossible. The serial killer has been aiming for town. Period.

Whatever. Agree to disagree. As long as we are lynching scum.

[Kazekirimaru]

I really don't understand why we're discussing "leashing" the hypothetical Serial Killer at all. That should never be a thing. Players with conflicting win conditions can never successfully work together.

[Kazekirimaru]

I'm tempted to start look for possible scum outside the sangres interactions with hopes that it'll be less of a clusterfuck to deal with as the game progresses.