Xenosaga Mafia (Game Over)

[Gooner]

@SSK

why did you visit me on night 1?

Metal Sonic

what was that shit about 3 neighborhoods?

Reading ffery is like trying to make a virus go through a firewall. It just doesn't work. Ffery will pretty much always be my night 1 action so that I at least have some clue.

Cut that last comment, I thought it was from Day One when I read through his ISO. It's not, it's from today which nullifies my read from it.

[Gooner]

Idiot that I am I forgot that FS takes up one scum spot off the wagon. That leaves 2 on and 2 more off.

[Gooner]

VOTE: MafiaSSK

Put simply I can't see anything in his ISO which suggests he's an actual Tracker. If he had been clear about his reads I might have been able to form a viable narrative. As it is I can't and we'll gain a lot of info from an SSK lynch which I'll detail now:

If SSK is town

There is likely one scum in the three-man neighbourhood, either Sonic or Venmar, which means that Aegor and mollie are probably not scum on the wagon on Day 2 which means the scum in the other neighbourhood is either sangres or Skull. Kaze's likely scum off the wagon anyway. The other scum is then probably Dan. Not sure about SK here, I doubt an SK and a scum would be in the same neighbourhood so the potential AFB slip on Day One is irrelevant. Mastin, muffin or orcinus would be decent guesses.

If SSK is scum

The three-man neighbourhood is likely town due to my scumread on Kaze. This means one scum on the wagon on Day 2 with Kaze is likely Aegor or macmollie and they're probably the scum in the neighbourhood instead of Skull or sangres. Orcinus is likely scum instead of Dan. AFB could be an SK in a neighbourhood if not then mastin or muffin would be my picks.

So an SSK kill is a kill on a player who has a very good chance of being scum and who will give us a load of information tomorrow.

[zMuffinMan]

oh yeah

gooner's entrance to the game looked townish and had the previous day phase lasted longer than like 24 hours i woulda been asking about where the scum reads on gooner were coming from

i've seen a lot of people here and there mentioning a scum read on gooner and no real explanations for it

[zMuffinMan]

thought that vca is pretty dumb since there's no real reason to assume x on, y off

[zMuffinMan]

also i believe mafiassk is a tracker, and i believe he tracked ffery n1 (and probably also skull n2) - i just think these actions are more likely to come from a scum tracker than a town tracker

[zMuffinMan]

like 1362, 1368 would be good reasons to believe he'd track me over sangres

or possibly pieguy 1439 if he thought pieguy's vote was weird and wanted to confirm pieguy's role

but sangres is a weird choice given he basically said nothing about them d1 (or d2 for that matter)

[zMuffinMan]

1378*

[Gooner]

thought that vca is pretty dumb since there's no real reason to assume x on, y off

Justifications for my poolings:
Day 1: I went for 2 on, 3 off because 4:1 either way makes little sense as a scum move. Scum generally spread out their votes, bunching them up isn't something they do naturally. I went for 3 off the wagon because believing only 2 scum were off the wagon would mean I would have to think that only one of Kaze, MS, Venmar, MafiaSSK, Mastin and muffin are scum. Which I don't.

Days 2 and 3: 2 on, 2 off seems more likely that 3:1 either way. 3:1 either way is possible but unlikely and I find 2:2 more likely.

[zMuffinMan]

i dunno why you're assuming there's 5 factional scum and if you're including probable SK as part of the 5 then ??? to VCA

if, for example, flandre was part of a 4-man scum team then 3 on the bus is not an impossibility if it was a planned sacrifice (and i'm inclined to think there was at least some bussing going on given how quickly that wagon developed)

likewise, if factional scum is down to 3 now then anything goes D2 (from an objective pov, if you have reasons to assume X on, Y off then go ahead)

15:4:1 seems like a reasonable guess for what the setup is
14:5:1 only makes sense if there's a ton of town power (and the flipped roles are OK but nothing to write home about)

[sangres]

Well, I daresay neither of those is a vig shot.

In other news, I think Kaze is noticeably scummier given Kagami's flip.

Why?

[sangres]

Unless Cabd was lying about his Night 1 results for whatever reason, we know that Pieguy protected Sangres on the same night that ActionDan and SSK performed an action on Sangres. Pieguy was one-shot Bulletproof, which means that one of those two tried to kill Sangres on Night 1.

VOTE: MafiaSSK

Metal Sonic what was that shit about 3 neighborhoods?

Um skull said something about 3 neighbors hoods idk, but there are 8 confirmed neighbors so my point stands

Two neighborhoods are confirmed and Cabd hinted at being in a neighborhood too. Don't quite remember where, but I can go digging through his ISO to find it if you really want me to.

Nacho, I still want an answer to this:

Spoiler:

Also, who is the only player in this playerlist who would kill Varsoon N1?
SKULL SKULL SKULL

What makes you say this? What led you to the conclusion that I'm the

only

person who would want to kill Varsoon?

Why do you want an answer to that?

[sangres]

Sangres, do you guys have a read on metal sonic other than telling me to go look it up.

I mean he's not as town as Kagami was, so there's a start.

[sangres]

SSK being town requires the nightkill to have disappeared some other way. Do we think there's another protective role, or a roleblocker or something? I feel like if it was a roleblock we'd know it by now.

I feel compelled to point out that the top of 2030 sounds like a very preemptive explanation of why you're still going to be alive on day umpteen.

Definitely would like some more insight on why we would lynch Metal Sonic today. I guess a possible neighborhood slip might have nailed Flandre, but that would require that there be three neighborhoods ALL of which contain a scum?

Pieguy was 1-shot bulletproof as well as a bodyguard. How would that work if he bodyguarded the kill target?

Some mods say he loses a shot of bulletproof. Other mods say he dies.
I have no idea which realm bork falls into.

[zMuffinMan]

^ i am assuming the 1-shot bp didn't count for his protects

at the very least, i'm not interested in guessing what is or isn't the case here since it seems irrelevant except for people who are assuming one of {AD, mafiassk} must be scum who performed a kill on sangres - and they're dumb

[sangres]

Do you think SSK is scum?

[zMuffinMan]

scroll up

[sangres]

also i believe mafiassk is a tracker, and i believe he tracked ffery n1 (and probably also skull n2) - i just think these actions are more likely to come from a scum tracker than a town tracker

oh thank god
sorry, I skimmed like a motherfucker after SSK became obviously scum

Vote: MafiaSSK

I disagree with ffery's Metal Sonic scumread now.

[zMuffinMan]

Vote: mafiassk

[sangres]

also i believe mafiassk is a tracker, and i believe he tracked ffery n1 (and probably also skull n2) - i just think these actions are more likely to come from a scum tracker than a town tracker

oh thank god
sorry, I skimmed like a motherfucker after SSK became obviously scum

Vote: MafiaSSK

I disagree with ffery's Metal Sonic scumread now.

Good. I disagree with my MS scumread now, too. Stopped agreeing with it after he explained where he got the 3 neighborhood idea.

[sangres]

also i believe mafiassk is a tracker, and i believe he tracked ffery n1 (and probably also skull n2) - i just think these actions are more likely to come from a scum tracker than a town tracker

oh thank god
sorry, I skimmed like a motherfucker after SSK became obviously scum

Vote: MafiaSSK

I disagree with ffery's Metal Sonic scumread now.

Good. I disagree with my MS scumread now, too. Stopped agreeing with it after he explained where he got the 3 neighborhood idea.

Good! I was hoping we hadn't stepped out of sync this game.

[Metal Sonic]

Damn, if you guys weren't referring to the metal sonic scumread as reference point I couldn't tell the difference^^^^

I mean in this case it is obviously stated but in any other cases hydras are tough

[Metal Sonic]

But I have not used mastin yet not on my phone

I will do it on a computer when I am free

[Metal Sonic]

Isod

[Cephrir]

Gooner, you can't just do that. That's not how anything works. I appreciate the effort though.

Well, I daresay neither of those is a vig shot.

In other news, I think Kaze is noticeably scummier given Kagami's flip.

Why?

Because Kagami being scum was the only thing preventing me from thinking he was a likely buddy for FS.