Xenosaga Mafia (Game Over)

[Angry Frat BROs]

Gooner way, WAY up. Then you've got a fairly decent starting point.

Do you think Gooner could be a Serial Killer this game?

[Angry Frat BROs]

God damn it, that Cephrir ISO is going to make me suspicious of mastina.

[mastin2]

Do you think Gooner could be a Serial Killer this game?

Theoretically? Sure. In reality? No, not really, I don't get that vibe at all. Gooner doesn't just send off not-mafia vibes; he sends off townvibes. Brian Skies did, too. Think about it for a sec, too. Brian Skies let himself be wagoned to L-1. Does that sound like a ballsy-SK move or a town-move? Definitely the latter to me.

[mastin2]

God damn it, that Cephrir ISO is going to make me suspicious of mastina.

Well, duh.

*I* would be suspicious of me if not for my role PM. I self-voted for a darn-good reason.

[pirate mollie]

Townblock?: Sangres, Dan, Mollie
Probably not willing to touch today: mastin2, Metal Sonic, Venmar, orcinus, zMuffin* (is Skulls pressure here sudden; missing mafia kill last night relevant?)

The rest: Skull, Aegor, Gooner, Kaze* (need to review him again, I keep waffling, slight townlean?)

why aren't you willing to touch orci?

kaze had 1 golden moment when he was thinking about things after kagami flipped town it looked like he was trying to do a hard reset but I can't get over that comment.

[pirate mollie]

ap how does skull flipping grpscum make muffina an sk? you are going to have to walk me through that process

[Angry Frat BROs]

Okay, that works for me.

See, I've been mulling over a theory that SSK might actually be a Rolecop who investigated Sangres and I, saw that we don't have night actions, and made up the Tracker claim because it sounded like a more Town-centric role and he wouldn't be taking any huge risks when it came time to report his results.

Why a rolecop instead of a tracker? I mean I guess RC is -slightly- more common for mafia to have (although I think that is more true in minis) What risks does SSK dodge by claiming Tracker as a rolecop? If you -did- have an action, he'd have to try and guess what it was or you'd -know- he was scum and enter a 1v1 with him. It makes a lot of sense for SSK to just real claim either way IMO.

No, I don't know for certain whether Sangres is a regular ol' Neighbor or not, but at this point, it seems like a pretty safe assumption. (I'm not even gonna consider whatever happened between ActionDan and Sangres because that probably wouldn't have interfered with a Rolecop's Night 1 investigation, so it's not important anyway.) Metal Sonic's 2058 looked like it might have been an attempt to help his theoretical partner SSK narrow down his investigation targets by getting the Neighbors to claim whether or not they had any additional night actions. I asked Metal Sonic all those questions so I could see if that theory was plausible or not.

Of course, that was before I knew about AFB's soft-claiming in his Neighborhood, which explained a lot. Combine that with Metal Sonic's subsequent responses and it does look like 2058 was coming from a Town mindset after all. So, that theory is shot down and Metal Sonic is still Town.

I mean I guess you were townreading MS throughout the game? but the phrasing here really bothers me "guess he wa stown after all" sounds like you knew he was town the whole time.

It doesn't clear SSK, though. If we assume that Mastin is the Serial Killer (and I'm going full-force on that theory until we receive convincing evidence that this isn't the case), it makes total sense for him to try to kill Pieguy on Night 1. (If you don't know why this makes sense, you haven't been paying attention.) That would mean that Varsoon was the Scum-kill on Night 1, which means that it now makes sense for Scum-SSK to perform a non-killing action on Sangres on Night 1. Like, say, a Rolecop investigation.


VOTE: MafiaSSK

Cheeky gif, made right after a bus vote? Just makes this feel sorta bussy to me.

I don't know why I hate the above post so very much.

Because you don't understand my moonlogic methods, so like a true classy gentleman, you hate them simply because you don't understand them. That would be my guess.

This reads like distancing.

Because you're scum, and Skull is (or...at least, might be?) a scumbuddy who you're seeing their post as being more scummy than it actually is? There are plenty of Skull's posts to be suspicious of, but the one you have an issue with is utterly and entirely null; I can't see how anyone would have an issue with that particular post.

If you really think I'm Scum, feel free to stab the bajeesus out of me tonight. I highly doubt any protective roles are going to try to stop you. Nothing bad will happen to you. I promise.

TL;DR: MafiaSSK rolecop misprediction feels like somebody trying to go for credit with the bus, but not wanting to show too much of their hand so they mispredict the Tracker as a Rolecop. Skull even defacto assumed that this is what I thought was scummy which tells me that Skull was very conscious about that prediction specifically.

combined with the GIF, it really reads like someone trying to hedge onto this lynch without looking overeager to be grabbing last minute town pants.

The little quip to Cephrir reads like distancing to me although Id like to ISO them together to confirm. It just feels...unnatural? Why is Skull going out of the way to appease Cephrir here instead of being upset or prodding back like she seems to have a tendency to do? Reads like buddying, and not in a town-motivated way.

Rolecop explanation feels a little forced and their definitely seems to be some highlighting of the fact that SSK targeted her (distancing).

Sooooo, would probably lynch. Seems like a mafioso in all probability.

SK could be Gooner/Aegor I think.

P-edit: Its not a well thought out opinion on my end, mostly a note to myself to look at Skull's ISO. The thought though is that there is a mafia kill missing last night. If mafia shot zMuffin and he lived, they might strongly suspect he is the SK. Thats why I said I need to look and see if Skull's pressure on zMuffin was sudden.

[pirate mollie]

I don't get why every1 has gooner as town. like I really don't.

I am looking at his iso and it is shit like this:

macmollie- I disliked this slot early on simply

because it didn't seem like the way mollie normally played

. It still doesn't to be honest with you so this slot concerns me.

that fucking crawl all over me cos I am pretty sure gooner and I have not played together before so how would know what I do or do not do? I could see cephrir going over a player list and putting me as a possible easy person to tunnel but hard to lynch so as not to be incriminating with my flip. some1 told him something and since we do not run with the same crowd I srsly doubt this came from outside communication.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Brian Skies let himself be wagoned to L-1. Does that sound like a ballsy-SK move or a town-move? Definitely the latter to me.

Its not like he had a choice in the matter?

I don't think self-votes are particularly town motivated. Ive self-voted (or threatened to) as town ONLY when the deadline is coming up and Im afraid of a possible no lynch. I think the only time I've ever raged/faked-emotion and voted myself was as scum.

Spoiler:

If he doesn't provide content he's the scummiest of the bunch and should be lynched for it.

Do you really put stock in lurking as a scum-tell?

Basically, this is where Im at.

Majiffy, and Wisdom are strong townreads.
NS, Mollie and SD look townish.

Amrun is fucking scum. Grim is likely scum. Venmar/Enomis/Elyse are PoE scum.

Grim, what is your current read on Amrun?

If I'm wrong about one of my town reads, its probably safety dance.

P-edit: Cheeky! Ok Grim lets dance. UNVOTE: , VOTE: AP

Summarize your opinion on me.

[Angry Frat BROs]

^ I left that vote on myself until I was fake-hammered by Venmar IIRC.

(Then coasted to endgame on probtown status )

[mastin2]

Its not like he had a choice in the matter?

He kinda did?

How he reacted to things was largely, "Eh". Not as in, me looking back on it and thinking 'meh'. As in, he looked at the wagon on him and casually dismissed it. Like...he didn't even bother trying to dismount it. He let it be, even joining it. That doesn't sound like a serial killer, panicking. That doesn't sound like scum, panicking. Not even scum/SK who's calm and collected and cool as the method of dealing with it. It reads as relaxed town, who doesn't give a damn about the wagon on them.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Yes but the fallacy in your reasoning is that relaxed=town and panicked=scum.

Town breaks down and panics at times. Like me on D1 of Switchboard mafia where everyone called me scum for town flailing and OMGUSing my wagon.

Brian read almost OVERLY calm (I need to ISO this) and, lets face it, it was an RVS wagon. The chance of it actually going through was not that high. Brian isn't dumb.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Or ME WHEN I REPLACED INTO MINDREADER MAFIA. I -did- selfvote there, but I was nothing short of panicky and frantic the entire time I was getting lynched

[Angry Frat BROs]

*Shakes fist at Nacho*

[mastin2]

Yes but the fallacy in your reasoning is that relaxed=town and panicked=scum.

Which I address.

Not even scum/SK who's calm and collected and cool as the method of dealing with it.

It reads as relaxed town, who doesn't give a damn about the wagon on them.

Like, not relaxed scum, thinking that this is no big deal. Relaxed town.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Not even scum/SK who's calm and collected and cool as the method of dealing with it.

I guess we just have to disagree about this sentence then?

I could see him being town, but I don't particularly think the way he handled his wagon was a towntell.

He provided reads on his wagon unprompted and was very responsive to people in the thread at the time which was kind of uncharacteristic. And he also pointed out precisely when he was L - 1.

Its clear that it was a concern to him and I think his approach to it WAS calculated to a degree, make of that what you will.

[sangres]

Starting in the post below, I drove a srs-wagon on town-Brian and got him lynched in the Ace Attorney mini game. Part of the reason I was convinced I was right was because there was no townflail happening.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5491707

It wasn't an rvs wagon, so it's not a complete parallel, but plenty close enough that I was happy to call him town for day 1.

[Angry Frat BROs]

From the tiny bit I read, he does read a little different though.

Chiefly he is a bit more OMGUSy directly.

[pirate mollie]

I have chatted with brian outside of games and he is no dummy. he self-deprecates a lot in games but he is actually really good I am just wondering why he would replace out given the playerlist unless it was site-wide.

but gooner. his push on me and for the original reasons he gave which have no basis in reality unless gooner is a seekrit alt of some1 and even then he is wrong about me but I am pretty sure I would have spotted who he was

[Angry Frat BROs]

^ Do you think Gooner is mafia or SK?

His attempts at scumhunting don't feel overly forced to me.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Also I might be biased, but I still want to call him scummy for the whole "I wonder if AFB SK-slipped" -> "Well no I never called you an SK, but if there IS one it might be you" -> *where the fuck did this train of thought go* was suspicious and possibly distancing from inside knowledge of him being an SK.

[pirate mollie]

^ Do you think Gooner is mafia or SK?

His attempts at scumhunting don't feel overly forced to me.

grpscum didn't I kind of imply that. my thing is that I think some1 is feeding him info about me (or was) and that is why he is trying to get me lynched cos he was very gung ho about this in the neighborhood

[Angry Frat BROs]

I was pretty much prepared to go against Kaze today but Ceph turning up scum has given me pause. If we work off of the assumption there are 5 scum Kaze is likely to be scum off the wagon but with 4 scum that would mean there is no scum in either neighbourhood which I struggle to believe.

I might be insane (help?) but this post read off to me as if he were expecting Ceph to flip town last night.

[pirate mollie]

Starting in the post below, I drove a srs-wagon on town-Brian and got him lynched in the Ace Attorney mini game. Part of the reason I was convinced I was right was because there was no townflail happening.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5491707

It wasn't an rvs wagon, so it's not a complete parallel, but plenty close enough that I was happy to call him town for day 1.

does brian have any completed scum games?

[Angry Frat BROs]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=31485