Xenosaga Mafia (Game Over)

[Angry Frat BROs]

I doubt SK mastin would lie about reads in the thread. If mastin thought Cephrir was scum, then I strongly doubt she'd SK him last night since that makes the game heavily townsided with only one more mafia left (probably) for town to find before moving on.
I also doubt mastin shoots Cephrir for reasons even mastin pointed out (self wifom ahoy): the Ceph kill looks like something mastin would make.

I think SK mastin would want to remove a threat. BRO and I are good at reading mastin and have been suspecting mastin. We've even hinted at having a PR. Our death wouldn't really be extremely traceable (imo) and mastin-SK would -probably- be looking to pick off a perceived town threat last night. Kind of speculation heavy on my end, but I think it all adds up to not-mastin.

So much this:

Remember, the SK is trying to build a narrative just as much as the mafia are.

[Aegor]

Why are you making the assumption that both neighborhoods have scum?

I never did. Why do you keep asking me why I believe things that I do not believe?

No I'm gonna back up my hydra partner on this one.

Stupid motivation is one of the four motivations.

Along with town, scum, and personal. It's sort of like the 4 forces in physics.

Force =/= motivation. Unless someone is attempting to be stupid, they do not have stupid motivation. Stupid people can still want to help town or want to help scum, which are the actual motivations.

[Kazekirimaru]

VOTE: Mastin

I'll just leave this here.

[Angry Frat BROs]

I'm not above throwing a hissy fit if you clownfucks try to mislynch mastina today.

-AP

[Kazekirimaru]

Warm up your capslock button, then. Because this is where I'm going today. ;D

[Angry Frat BROs]

I never did. Why do you keep asking me why I believe things that I do not believe?

Did my hydra partner ask you that?

Can you quote me the answer? I'm lazy.

[zMuffinMan]

How is that suspicious? MafiaSSK was very obviously scum. And guess what? He flipped scum. My reasoning for voting SSK -- his position on the FS wagon in addition to the N1 shenanigans -- was more solid than ANYTHING ANYONE had presented on anyone else that day.

my issue with this is how unnatural it felt. the justification for the vote on mafiassk felt like, "hey i need to figure out some original reason for pushing mafiassk so it doesn't look like bussing!" and the conviction here - that mafiassk was "very obviously scum" felt like putting on airs because, really, i thought he was scum

after

i assessed his claim and thought about possibilities, but even i wasn't sure he was very obviously scum. what's more, if he was very obviously scum, the vote on kaze doesn't make a whole lot of sense. 819 and 1693 are the only real cases you've put forth against kaze and at no point in the game have you suggested he is very obviously scum or anything like that. which makes me think the mafiassk conviction is because you knew he's scum and the lack of conviction with kaze is because you're scum pushing a mislynch

Could you please explain how the hell it makes sense for me to push a bus through on my buddy after another player has presented me with a big-ass opening?

because the mafiassk lynch was likely happening with or without you - you did very little to push it through (i don't think anyone even really acknowledged what you said about him) whereas the kaze lynch wasn't happening <- this doesn't necessarily mean you are definitely scum, but there is plenty of scum motivation in bussing here for whatever town cred it was worth (and some people seem to think it was worth some town cred)

You also conveniently ignore my order that someone hammer in post 2211, repeated again in post 2311, not to mention my insistence that SSK could be a Maf Tracker in post 2328.

yes i ignored all posts after cephrir's bus vote because, if you are scum with cephrir, that would be the point where it was obviously scum's plan to bus

but honestly, those posts aren't impressive anyway - and no, you didn't "insist" ssk could be a mafia tracker, you questioned someone saying a mafia tracker was unlikely (well after i put forward the idea); i suppose you could argue this is because you thought he was a mafia tracker, but you never stated this as an opinion iirc

[zMuffinMan]

People who deduce that either ActionDan or SSK must be Scum because of Cabd's Watcher results are dumb...even though you ultimately agree with the conclusions that those players reached and supported the SSK lynch.

learn to read, i'll bold the important part

at the very least, i'm not interested in guessing what is or isn't the case here since it seems irrelevant except for people who are assuming one of {AD, mafiassk} must be

scum who performed a kill

on sangres - and they're dumb

So SSK went from being "Yeah, he's totally a Town Tracker who is tracking people he suspects" to "Yeah, he's totally Scum and we should definitely lynch him" in the span of a few pages, but nothing changed between those few pages to cause such a jarring shift in your opinion of SSK. Sounds legit.

yes, i totally thought mafiassk was a town tracker and you can totally see that from the entire context of the post you're referring to. the first line of the post you're quoting even practically gives away that i think mafiassk is a town tracker, and i backtracked on it so quickly. also this reply is dripping with sincerity.

ISO MafiaSSK and look at his interactions with Muffin. Lurky, noncommittal SSK spends an inordinate amount of time addressing Muffin, and all of those interactions carry the pungent aroma of Scum buddies distancing

oh, really? do go on

I am liking Skull's posts more and more. Will review claims made therein.

heh

[Aegor]

my issue with this is how unnatural it felt. the justification for the vote on mafiassk felt like, "hey i need to figure out some original reason for pushing mafiassk so it doesn't look like bussing!"

So I should just vote people with no explanation because any attempt to strengthen a read using other reasoning could be considered "figuring out some original reason so it does not look like bussing?" That is a great precedent to set, right there.

and the conviction here - that mafiassk was "very obviously scum" felt like putting on airs because, really, i thought he was scum

after

i assessed his claim and thought about possibilities, but even i wasn't sure he was very obviously scum. what's more, if he was very obviously scum, the vote on kaze doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

Of course it does. Kaze should also die. I would rather Kaze have died. But SSK was fine too. And guess what? I was right.

819 and 1693 are the only real cases you've put forth against kaze and at no point in the game have you suggested he is very obviously scum or anything like that. which makes me think the mafiassk conviction is because you knew he's scum and the lack of conviction with kaze is because you're scum pushing a mislynch

k. Then lynch Kaze and lynch me tomorrow if he is town. The suggestion that I was bussing SSK is patently absurd. I would have just ridden the wagon; it made no sense whatsoever for me to repeatedly call for his timely death.

because the mafiassk lynch was likely happening with or without you - you did very little to push it through (i don't think anyone even really acknowledged what you said about him) whereas the kaze lynch wasn't happening <- this doesn't necessarily mean you are definitely scum, but there is plenty of scum motivation in bussing here for whatever town cred it was worth (and some people seem to think it was worth some town cred)

My posts were hardly subtle. In no way am I claiming credit for pushing the lynch through, but after riding the FS wagon, why would I not just ride the SSK one out? Why post in response to mastin instead of letting his defense play out and see what happens? My vote is already on SSK; I could have just posted nothing.

This entire line of reasoning makes zero sense.

yes i ignored all posts after cephrir's bus vote because, if you are scum with cephrir, that would be the point where it was obviously scum's plan to bus

Convenient.

but honestly, those posts aren't impressive anyway - and no, you didn't "insist" ssk could be a mafia tracker, you questioned someone saying a mafia tracker was unlikely (well after i put forward the idea); i suppose you could argue this is because you thought he was a mafia tracker, but you never stated this as an opinion iirc

The fact that I voted SSK, never questioned his tracker claim, and then asked a rhetorical question about his being a maf tracker in the same post in which I asked a rhetorical question about why he is still alive constitutes an opinion that he is a maf tracker.

[zMuffinMan]

I STILL say muffina's incessant trolling is town the only thing that gives me pause is how he is playing up to sangres who are just gobbling it up.

i made a pact with nacho and i dare not break the pirate's code. had he lost the pact, i would expect no less from him.

i think i'm incredibly easy to read but some people seem to have trouble figuring me out so, in the spirit of AP's flowchart, i decided to design a flowchart of my own to help people:

Spoiler:

[zMuffinMan]

@aegor,

i wasn't saying that people who add additional reasoning are scummy - just that the way in which you did it felt like scum who thought it was necessary to tack on additional reasoning to look more town or something. it didn't feel natural.

and saying "of course it does" doesn't explain why you thought mafiassk was so "very obviously scum" - because i don't think (given the reasoning you put forth) he was very obviously scum, which is why i don't believe the conviction there was genuine. mafiassk flipping scum is the REASON i think the conviction was unnatural soooooo being proven "right" about him doesn't help your case

but after riding the FS wagon, why would I not just ride the SSK one out? Why post in response to mastin instead of letting his defense play out and see what happens? My vote is already on SSK; I could have just posted nothing.

i don't really get what you're asking here. are you asking me what the scum motivation is in avoiding prods? or are you simply asserting that, as scum, you would have gone silent after putting a bus vote down?

The fact that I voted SSK, never questioned his tracker claim, and then asked a rhetorical question about his being a maf tracker in the same post in which I asked a rhetorical question about why he is still alive constitutes an opinion that he is a maf tracker.

no it doesn't, but that's not even really an issue for me, anyway, so i don't care about this

[Kazekirimaru]

k. Then lynch Kaze and lynch me tomorrow if he is town.

Why are you so stupid?

Did you recently experience severe trauma to the head?

[zMuffinMan]

I think Skull flipping mafia might make zMuffin slightly likelier to be SK.

first, i don't think i was a very likely NK target last night soooooo this seems like a dumb theory even if skull actually is scum

second, why would factional scum want to get rid of a SK at this point? there is likely only 1, possibly 2 factional scum left - even with the SK killing one of them last night, neither should have any motivation to lynch the other at the moment

[Aegor]

@aegor,

i wasn't saying that people who add additional reasoning are scummy - just that the way in which you did it felt like scum who thought it was necessary to tack on additional reasoning to look more town or something. it didn't feel natural.

Great, so you feel like it was off. What a great way to not have to justify anything that you say.

and saying "of course it does" doesn't explain why you thought mafiassk was so "very obviously scum" - because i don't think (given the reasoning you put forth) he was very obviously scum, which is why i don't believe the conviction there was genuine. mafiassk flipping scum is the REASON i think the conviction was unnatural soooooo being proven "right" about him doesn't help your case

So if MafiaSSK had flipped town, my conviction would have been genuine, but because he was obviously scum and I pushed for his lynch and he flipped...wait for it...scum, my conviction was a sham?

i don't really get what you're asking here. are you asking me what the scum motivation is in avoiding prods? or are you simply asserting that, as scum, you would have gone silent after putting a bus vote down?

Yeah. Please. My posts could have been mere prod dodges and the lynch would have happened. There was no reason for me to draw attention to myself. I was not under any real suspicion and should not be today. There was no need for me to be vehement in any way. I was already on the first scum wagon; there would have been nothing suspicious about hopping on the second one early on too. And if I am scum, going silent after putting a bus vote down is exactly what I did with FS. Why not repeat a strategy that had led to exactly zero suspicion of me?

Your view that SSK's lynch was inevitable is unfounded. It was possible that mastin would successfully make a case to keep SSK alive, so I would gain nothing by expediting a lynch on my scumbuddy after one was already lynched on Day 1.

no it doesn't, but that's not even really an issue for me, anyway, so i don't care about this

It certainly does.


If I am to be lynched, whatever. At least use this day productively. We have plenty of time left. If/when I die, who next? Who is basically conftown? Anyone have theories on night kills/actions? Who is SK? What are thoughts on mastin, mollie, and Kaze? More specifically than "town" or "scum?" Reasons, with references to specific posts?

[Aegor]

BTW, kind-of-but-not-totally game-related:

@Skull:

I offer you my sincere apology for the language I used in a particular post on Day 1 (and language in any subsequent posts that was offensive). I should have guarded my tongue and treated you with the respect that every human being deserves. My behavior was unjustifiable. I hope that you can forgive me eventually.

[sangres]

Hey orcinus what the hell is going on with you in this game?

[zMuffinMan]

how am i not justifying what i'm saying?

mafiassk flipping town wouldn't have made me think your conviction was necessarily genuine (i dunno, maybe i would have in the same way i think mastin's conviction that mafiassk was town was genuine), but i wouldn't feel as bad about you as i do because of his flip and said conviction looking fake

i don't believe you thought you were drawing attention to yourself by pushing mafiassk - if anything, it looks like you believe you were doing something that was unlikely to come from scum

i also don't like that you're conscious of the fact that you rode out the flandre wagon but did something different in regards to the mafiassk wagon

mafiassk was definitely going to be the lynch yesterday - nothing you did or didn't do would have had any affect on this and nothing you did made this more likely

If/when I die, who next? Who is basically conftown? Anyone have theories on night kills/actions? Who is SK? What are thoughts on mastin, mollie, and Kaze? More specifically than "town" or "scum?" Reasons, with references to specific posts?

if you're town, i look for next most likely scum in your neighbourhood (because there is almost certainly at least one scum in there because ~reasons bork doesn't want discussed~). if you're scum, i'm not thinking that far ahead atm

and i'm not going to go into specifics with my reads on the three people you named (too much effort, too little reward atm), but i do think all three of them look town (or at least not factional scum)

[Aegor]

There is no way you can argue that relative silence on my end would have drawn more attention than repeated pushing for a lynch. Therefore I did draw attention to myself when it was unneeded.

i also don't like that you're conscious of the fact that you rode out the flandre wagon but did something different in regards to the mafiassk wagon

God forbid a player have self-awareness. Or do you just post anything and then forget about it?

mafiassk was definitely going to be the lynch yesterday - nothing you did or didn't do would have had any affect on this and nothing you did made this more likely

That is simply not true. If mafiaSSK was not obvscum, then there was a definite chance he was not going to be lynched, especially after mastin started pushing a defense. If mafiaSSK was obvscum, then my conviction was appropriate anyway. Your retroactive fatalism is just wrong.

if you're town, i look for next most likely scum in your neighbourhood (because there is almost certainly at least one scum in there because ~reasons bork doesn't want discussed~). if you're scum, i'm not thinking that far ahead atm

and i'm not going to go into specifics with my reads on the three people you named (too much effort, too little reward atm), but i do think all three of them look town (or at least not factional scum)

Are you fucking kidding me? That is all you have?

[zMuffinMan]

There is no way you can argue that relative silence on my end would have drawn more attention than repeated pushing for a lynch. Therefore I did draw attention to myself when it was unneeded.

i could argue that lurking can draw more attention than being active, actually. do you want me to? i'd rather not wall theory

God forbid a player have self-awareness. Or do you just post anything and then forget about it?

i am usually not self-aware of specific things like that as town. i am usually aware of my reasoning, who i've voted (though sometimes i forget even this), and how my reads have progressed as the game went on, but i don't think i'm ever aware of things like whether i simply silently rode out a wagon as town. mostly because i never do that as town (or at least if i do that, i'm not conscious that i'm doing it). but you being conscious of it suggests it was a decision you were making.

If mafiaSSK was not obvscum, then there was a definite chance he was not going to be lynched, especially after mastin started pushing a defense

no, mafiassk was going to be lynched (with or without you) and it wasn't because he was "obvscum", it was because he was likely scum and almost everyone agreed with this.

so no. i still don't think your conviction was appropriate

Are you fucking kidding me? That is all you have?

yes

[zMuffinMan]

i could argue that lurking can draw more attention than being active, actually. do you want me to? i'd rather not wall theory

actually, i don't think i really need to wall theory to prove this

i'll just use a very obvious extreme example to prove the point

do you think AFB (or insert any name really, but AFB for example purposes) would draw more or less attention if they suddenly started lurking?

the only people who don't draw attention for lurking are chronic lurkers

[Aegor]

i could argue that lurking can draw more attention than being active, actually. do you want me to? i'd rather not wall theory...the only people who don't draw attention for lurking are chronic lurkers

I would not have drawn attention for lurking on Day 3 since my activity level had not been noteworthy earlier in the game. I gained absolutely nothing by altering my posting pattern.

i am usually not self-aware of specific things like that as town. i am usually aware of my reasoning, who i've voted (though sometimes i forget even this), and how my reads have progressed as the game went on, but i don't think i'm ever aware of things like whether i simply silently rode out a wagon as town.

Then my memory is better than yours. I remember in what way I contributed or did not contribute to wagons via my posting. And I almost never am willing to lynch someone without a solid case on them, which is why FS's lynch was so unusual for me at a personal level.

mostly because i never do that as town (or at least if i do that, i'm not conscious that i'm doing it). but you being conscious of it suggests it was a decision you were making.

You have ridden out every single wagon in this game by my standards. I did not "decide" to ride out the FS wagon in the manner you suggest, and if I had, I would certainly not call attention to it on my own initiative. FS amounted to a policy lynch. Everyone rode that wagon. No one had a solid case against her.

no, mafiassk was going to be lynched (with or without you) and it wasn't because he was "obvscum", it was because he was likely scum and almost everyone agreed with this.

so no. i still don't think your conviction was appropriate

Even if one accepts your false premises, the conclusion still does not follow. But because your assertion that he would inevitably have been lynched remains incorrect, we do not even have to go there.

[Aegor]

And even if you did not think that SSK was surviving the day, I thought it possible:

Can we please just lynch MafiaSSK or move on to someone else? I do not like prolonging a lynch-that-won't-be.

Kaze is another good lynch. I have a few others in mind as well.

From post 2311. And since your argument rests on my motivation and mental state, I am surprised that this post does not appear in any of your posts.

[zMuffinMan]

I gained absolutely nothing by altering my posting pattern.

(1) how did you alter your posting pattern?
(2) you say you gained nothing, but you're now using this as a defense - ergo you did gain something

I did not "decide" to ride out the FS wagon in the manner you suggest, and if I had, I would certainly not call attention to it on my own initiative

you did decide to ride it out (i don't know how you can suggest otherwise), though, and you didn't decide to draw attention to it until it became a matter of you contrasting how you approached one scum lynch compared to another as a means of suggesting you cannot be scum because you would have approached them uniformly

also if everyone rode out the flandre wagon, then why are you using it as part of your defense?

Even if one accepts your false premises, the conclusion still does not follow

yes, it does

almost everyone thought mafiassk was likely scum -> there was no such general opinion on anyone else -> mafiassk lynch was definitely going to happen bar new information coming to light (mastin's defense wasn't new information)

since your argument rests on my motivation and mental state, I am surprised that this post does not appear in any of your posts

i have nothing to say about that post. it reminds me of cephrir's posts about mafiassk. namely ones where he was suggesting other lynches but not moving his vote

is that meant to be a town post or something?

[sangres]

FS amounted to a policy lynch.

Maybe it amounted to a policy lynch for you.

[Angry Frat BROs]

k. Then lynch Kaze and lynch me tomorrow if he is town.

Why are you so stupid?

Did you recently experience severe trauma to the head?

When you puzzle this one out, maybe you will stop voteparking probable townies.