Mini 1543--Natirasha's On Parole!(Game Over)

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3425 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:19 am

guyett wrote:I think its muffin and ns

i think you might be wrong

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3426 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:27 am

i had some thoughts about it being selkies+nacho actually

i think someone near the end of yesterday asked whether they thought selkies big wall on goodfather was bussing. at first i thought no, but then i thought about how ffery was handling the goodfather claim and it didn't look natural at all. i prodded ffery about it several times and all i remember her saying was that she still thought goodfather was scum. like yeah, ok, she turned out to be right, but there was a complete lack of analysis going into the read after the nurse claim happened (except maybe a brief mention of protective roles not making a lot of sense or something but given the claimed town power at the time was compulsive N2 vig + doc + nurse i don't see that as a lot of town power in a 10:3)

as for nacho, i remembered him dodging all my questions about how his read on goodfather developed D2 + i just think he doesn't look town in this game

i need to go back and look at some stuff some time today

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3427 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:29 am

though if one of them is town, i think guyett is more likely scum than ns

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3428 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:30 am

selkies wrote:i need to ISO goodfather and muffin side-by-side to see if anything is there

i am interested in what you conclude from this

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3429 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:36 am

also interesting (at least from my pov but i'm obvtown so from everyone else's pov as well) is that everyone off the goodfather wagon yesterday (apart from goodfather) was town

which means scum were eagerly jumping on the bus for whatever town credit it was worth

might go back and look at that properly at some point in the near future

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3430 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:41 am

cabd wrote:I think the most telling thing tomorrow will be looking at the way people handled the claim of nurse

btw

just to fully explain what was going on with how i treated goodfather D2. i picked up on him softing his role pretty hard well before mafiassk claimed doc and concluded the nurse claim was legitimate (though you can see most of this if you look over how i treated him, especially around the time of his claim). turns out i was right about the claim being legitimate, wrong about the alignment part of things *shrug*

side note that isn't particularly important but still: i think scum have a JOAT with 1-shot rolecop, 1-shot roleblock and i think both of those were used on cabd at some point in this game

Selkies · Post Post #3431 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:36 am

In post 3423, Guyett wrote:I think its muffin and ns

reasoning?

Selkies · Post Post #3432 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:45 am

In post 3429, zMuffinMan wrote:also interesting (at least from my pov but i'm obvtown so from everyone else's pov as well) is that everyone off the goodfather wagon yesterday (apart from goodfather) was town

which means scum were eagerly jumping on the bus for whatever town credit it was worth

might go back and look at that properly at some point in the near future

I thought it came down to who was online between Cabd's scumslip accusation and the hammer. I would expect any scum who were around to have voted him.

re GF I figured even if I were right about him, I doubted I'd get any traction on lynching him. Also did some second guessing.

What do you think about game balance now?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3433 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:48 am

i think the neighbourhood with daytalk was designed to be some sort of strong town force or something (it's the only real explanation i can think of if it's 10:3 and scum obviously have at the very least a JOAT on top of the back-up nurse)

i don't think balance discussion really matters at this point, though?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3434 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:51 am

like doc + en vig + neighbours vs nurse (which somewhat nullifies the en vig if scum take out the doc) and at least a JOAT if not two separate roles (roleblocked cabd N2 and rolecopped him at some point)

i dunno how much value nati puts on neighbours

maybe he thinks that's balanced

Selkies · Post Post #3435 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:56 am

In post 3433, zMuffinMan wrote:i think the neighbourhood with daytalk was designed to be some sort of strong town force or something (it's the only real explanation i can think of if it's 10:3 and scum obviously have at the very least a JOAT on top of the back-up nurse)

i don't think balance discussion really matters at this point, though?

You brought balance up in 3430, which is why I asked.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3436 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:59 am

no i didn't. it was something i talked about last night though as the only possible explanation for aronis being town - nothing to do with balance

Guyett · Post Post #3437 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:00 am

In post 3431, Selkies wrote:
In post 3423, Guyett wrote:I think its muffin and ns
reasoning?

Because I'm awesome

VOTE: notscience

Guyett · Post Post #3438 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:01 am

Might be MYLO but I've got the luck of the Irish sure I do.

Guyett · Post Post #3439 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:01 am

I will give actual reasons after work

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3440 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:12 am

i mentioned it because last night i was trying to make sense of (a) the lack of kill on aronis N2 and (b) the scum slip from goodfather yesterday suggesting a rolecop on cabd

two separate roles is unlikely, especially since there's no other evidence of roleblocker in play (last night woulda been a perfect opportunity to block mafiassk and kill cabd, for example, if there was a full roleblocker) sooooooooooo i concluded that aronis being town meant a JOAT with at least 1-shot rolecop, 1-shot roleblock if aronis was town

further (though i'm not entirely sure how much can be gained from this) i was wondering why cabd was blocked N2 if aronis was town and the only real explanation for it i can think of is that scum were worried that cabd was going to shoot one of them

but i don't remember who cabd was thinking about shooting at that point in time - at some point he mentioned making the lynched player a vengeful but that didn't happen coz IK wanted bert dead (and if not bert, mafiassk or aronis) and they were all town sooooooooooooooo don't really get why he was blocked unless they were worried about him going rogue

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3441 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:14 am

also i need to, at some point, go back and read the start of D3 because i'm thinking the lack of kills N2 was a planned no kill in the hopes of getting a mafiassk mislynch to happen and i don't remember who was floating that around

Guyett · Post Post #3442 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:21 am

Town Doc + Town EN Vig + 2 Town Neighbours vs Scum Nurse + Scum Neighbour + Scum JOAT?

Guyett · Post Post #3443 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:26 am

In post 2551, notscience wrote:
In post 2536, Cabd wrote:I'm listening.
If SSK is a scumdoc, he could have blocked his teammate while pulling a NK gambit to try and confirm himself, and your shot hit whoever he was protecting

thoughts?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3444 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:27 am

guyett

does a 2T1S 3-man neighbourhood favours scum or town (in terms of balance)?

Guyett · Post Post #3445 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:36 am

In post 1116, Natirasha wrote:
Vote Count 1.34(aka "You Guys Did It" Vote Count)

notscience(1):

RossWilliam

Nachomamma8(1):
zMuffinMan

RossWilliam(7):

FourTrouble
, notscience,
Guyett
Katsuki
, Selkies,
Aronis, Bert, Idiotking

Aronis(3):

Cabd
,
MafiaSSK
, Nachomamma8

Katsuki(1):

The Goodfather

With thirteen alive, it takes seven to lynch.

Dark green is conf flipped dead town.
Light green is myself and cabd who is 99% town

Either (or both) NS and selkies have to be scum

Guyett · Post Post #3446 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:37 am

In post 3444, zMuffinMan wrote:guyett

does a 2T1S 3-man neighbourhood favours scum or town (in terms of balance)?

scum imo

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3447 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:45 am

so you think a 2T1S neighbourhood is more scum-sided than town-sided, and you think 10:3 is balanced with town having a doc and an even-night vig to counter a back-up doc + JOAT (with at least roleblock+rolecop) + scum-sided mechanic?

IF scum had killed N2 and not blocked cabd's shot, D3 would have been mylo in a 13p game

Guyett · Post Post #3448 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:53 am

In post 2185, Natirasha wrote:
Vote Count 2.26

Selkies(5):

MafiaSSK, Bert, Aronis
, notscience,
The Goodfather

The Goodfather(2):
Selkies,
Cabd

Aronis(1):

Idiotking

Idiotking(1):
Nachomamma8

Not Voting(2):
zMuffinMan,
Guyett

With eleven alive, it takes six to lynch.

Guyett · Post Post #3449 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:56 am

In post 3447, zMuffinMan wrote:so you think a 2T1S neighbourhood is more scum-sided than town-sided, and you think 10:3 is balanced with town having a doc and an even-night vig to counter a back-up doc + JOAT (with at least roleblock+rolecop) + scum-sided mechanic?

IF scum had killed N2 and not blocked cabd's shot, D3 would have been mylo in a 13p game

Actually looking at VC's you're not looking too scummy anymore. NS is my top scum read right now.

Nacho initiated the wagon on SSK at the start of D2, would scum wagon up on a doc if they rolecoped him the previous night? Surely optimal scum play would be to not have him claim and shoot him safely N2.