NY 172: Another Large Normal (GAME OVER)

[PeregrineV]

Wow thread explosion already?

Talah is a he BTW he was in one of the Newbie games I modded.

Yates is correct that vote on BB is rather suspicious, I have played with BB a lot and he replaces out due to RL issues not because of alignment.


VOTE: Pere

I don't think anyone IS voting him.

[Plessiez]

It's day 1. Deadline for the day is March 28th, 21:59 UTC. That's (expired on 2014-03-28 17:59:48).

Vote Count 1.6

Doc Holliday [4 votes] (DeasVail, bjc, Luca Blight, talah)
Damon_Gant [3 votes] (SnowStorm, mastin2, Zdenek)
PeregrineV [2 votes] (Yates, RachMarie)
Luca Blight [2 votes] (Damon_Gant, 4nxi3ty)
4nxi3ty [2 votes] (ThAdmiral, Mister Rogers)
bjc [1 vote] (Peregrine V)
mastin2 [1 vote] (BipolarChemist)
talah [1 vote] (Doc Holliday)

4 players are not voting

: {aptil, Nero Cain, projectmatt, Smudger}

With

20

players alive it takes

11

votes to lynch somebody or to go to night.

V/LA

mastin2 is V/LA until March 31st.

[Zdenek]

Yeah, you're scum. This line of thought simply doesn't come from a town player. Town player? "Why do you think Rogers is town? Why do you think I'm scum?" Scum player? "Why do you think our interactions are town vs. scum?" (Making an assumption that interactions have anything to do with the read. They might contribute to the overall picture, but are largely irrelevant.) "...Also, he unvoted me; surely that makes him either scum or wrong." (That's essentially what talah's saying, here.)

This looks good.

Really? Am I missing something because (no offense to Mastin) but it read to me like a barely substantial semantics argument which would be better suited for RVS.

I think mastin's view of the townie thought process is about right. I think that talah asking about interactions, which mastin never mentioned, is an attempt to get mastin to argue for something that the never claimed, force him into arguing a particular point or have him admit that he doesn't think that the interactions are scummy. The second comment seems to me to be simply manipulative. To me it boils down to Talah saying: if you think I'm scum, then you must think that I've fooled Mr. Rogers, Mr. Rogers is town, but wrong, which is really not a remarkable opinion to hold in a mafia game at all.

[Zdenek]

I would expect a normal town player who is actually trying to determine people's alignments to have come up with approximately the same amount of scum reads as town reads.

At this stage of the game that's just silly.

[PeregrineV]

Why bjc?

He claimed scum with his first post. Maybe to distract from that very fact, maybe to assuage his guilt over the fact.
Maybe he's town and he's trying to catch scum. For everyone assuming he's town trying to catch scum, analyze the total sum of his followup to his scum claim. Then analyze the total sum of the rest of his play. Explain how it is town. Use charts, graphs, links, etc. Use his own words and yours. TIA.

@Mastin- your posts look like scum-Mastin.

Damon is town.
talah is town
ThAd is town.
Yates is town.
Rogers is town.

Some others I want to give town reads, but you have yet to flip the switch.

@Mod-Nero hasn't posted yet, he still in this game?

[Plessiez]

@Mod-Nero hasn't posted yet, he still in this game?

Nero is V/LA until the 19th.

[Zdenek]

Provocative in the right ways. His other posts are neutral, but I definitely feel this one leans town.

Yet Doc is a scum read of yours?

both myself AND DG but

Anx goes back down the list.

@Zdenek - can you explain how you arrived at what must be an obv Town read on bjc that's so strong it lead you to the conclusions posted in posts 50, 51, 53, and 56?

Those have little bearing on any read that I have on bjc. I've explained some of them already.

Also, on a kind of related but unrelated point, can you explain post 144 to me? I mean, I agree with Chemist that Gant calling out a dude [projectmatt] for not posting that has only been in the game for an hour is pretty sketch. Do you disagree? What am I missing, here?

I think Gant is scum and I think that there are positive things that BipolarChemist could have brought up, but he focused on something incredibly boring. It was a really weak interaction between someone and a scum read of mine and I wanted to provoke BipolarChemist.

This all happened in the span of like 15 minutes. This actually looks organic to some of you???

What does the time frame have to do with it?

[PeregrineV]

@Zdenek

- Confused on your bjc read and analysis. Please restate.

[Zdenek]

I don't have a read on bjc at the moment. What I have are reads on people's reactions to his scum claim.

[PeregrineV]

I don't have a read on bjc at the moment. What I have are reads on people's reactions to his scum claim.

How can those reads have any validity without a read on bjc?

[ThAdmiral]

ThAd

??

Ok I take back everything I said about zdenek. The fake-vig was golden. bipolar is now basically conf-town, that reaction doesn't look fake at all.

I'm a sucker for a fake vig gambit. Normally they read contrived to me but I like this one.

I would expect a normal town player who is actually trying to determine people's alignments to have come up with approximately the same amount of scum reads as town reads.

At this stage of the game that's just silly.

Why?

I don't have a read on bjc at the moment. What I have are reads on people's reactions to his scum claim.

How can those reads have any validity without a read on bjc?

Actually this is a good question.

[Zdenek]

I don't have a read on bjc at the moment. What I have are reads on people's reactions to his scum claim.

How can those reads have any validity without a read on bjc?

Because they aren't about him.
The issue I had with ThAd's post was that he shielded himself from complaints that he was taking the bait by making a joke about it.
The issue I had with Doc's post was the comment about this deserves a vote later. It's him opening up the door to get off the Talah wagon.
The issue I had with Damon Gant's post was that he was making out of game excuses. I also didn't like that he called the post peculiar (as opposed to scummy).

[Zdenek]

Why?

Why in God's name should anyone have the same number as town reads as scum reads?

[PeregrineV]

I don't have a read on bjc at the moment. What I have are reads on people's reactions to his scum claim.

How can those reads have any validity without a read on bjc?

Because they aren't about him.
The issue I had with ThAd's post was that he shielded himself from complaints that he was taking the bait by making a joke about it.

(Scum bait or town bait?)

The issue I had with Doc's post was the comment about this deserves a vote later. It's him opening up the door to get off the Talah wagon.

(To vote scum bjc to bus or vote town bjc to mislynch?)

The issue I had with Damon Gant's post was that he was making out of game excuses. I also didn't like that he called the post peculiar (as opposed to scummy).

(so is he distancing from scum-bjc or fencesitting on town-bjc?)

I don't feel you can adequately assign alignments to reactions-to-bjc without assigning a bjc alignment (without MSU).

[Zdenek]

I don't have a read on bjc at the moment. What I have are reads on people's reactions to his scum claim.

How can those reads have any validity without a read on bjc?

Because they aren't about him.
The issue I had with ThAd's post was that he shielded himself from complaints that he was taking the bait by making a joke about it.

(Scum bait or town bait?)

The issue I had with Doc's post was the comment about this deserves a vote later. It's him opening up the door to get off the Talah wagon.

(To vote scum bjc to bus or vote town bjc to mislynch?)

The issue I had with Damon Gant's post was that he was making out of game excuses. I also didn't like that he called the post peculiar (as opposed to scummy).

(so is he distancing from scum-bjc or fencesitting on town-bjc?)

I don't feel you can adequately assign alignments to reactions-to-bjc without assigning a bjc alignment (without MSU).

It's like you just demonstrated how I don't need to have a read on bjc, since you gave possibilities for each of those things regardless of what alignment bjc is.

[PeregrineV]

I don't have a read on bjc at the moment. What I have are reads on people's reactions to his scum claim.

How can those reads have any validity without a read on bjc?

Because they aren't about him.
The issue I had with ThAd's post was that he shielded himself from complaints that he was taking the bait by making a joke about it.

(Scum bait or town bait?)

The issue I had with Doc's post was the comment about this deserves a vote later. It's him opening up the door to get off the Talah wagon.

(To vote scum bjc to bus or vote town bjc to mislynch?)

The issue I had with Damon Gant's post was that he was making out of game excuses. I also didn't like that he called the post peculiar (as opposed to scummy).

(so is he distancing from scum-bjc or fencesitting on town-bjc?)

I don't feel you can adequately assign alignments to reactions-to-bjc without assigning a bjc alignment (without MSU).

It's like you just demonstrated how I don't need to have a read on bjc, since you gave possibilities for each of those things regardless of what alignment bjc is.

So your possibilities from the reactions to bjc are
ThAd could or could not be scum.
Doc could or could not be scum.
Damon could or could not be scum.

Does that sum them up?

[Zdenek]

How do you get from giving me examples of things scum could be doing based on bjc being either town or scum to asking me about whether ThAd, doc or damon is scum or not scum?

[Zdenek]

Your thought progression here makes no sense to me at all.

[Damon_Gant]

Provocative in the right ways. His other posts are neutral, but I definitely feel this one leans town.

Yet Doc is a scum read of yours?

Wrong. You might be confused because of the post where I listed the mastin reads that I disagreed with (with my reads being the opposite to those stated). To be fully clear, my read on Doc is town leaning.

[Zdenek]

indeed.

Unvote.
Vote: Talah

[Plessiez]

Smudger hasn't posted for over 48 hours and hasn't arranged a V/LA. He has therefore been prodded.

Smudger has not responded to his prod, which was sent over 24 hours ago. So I am looking for a replacement.

[Nero Cain]

triplevote:Yates

[aptil]

prod dodge .

[bjc]

dodging here as well

[Mister Rogers]

Ok this game is sort of spinning out of control. Too many players for me to capture and quantify all the data in a collected way before too much new data is introduced. I will post some substantive reads though and attempt to complete a full analysis once I have caught up.

This analysis is good up to post #210.

Well I think we are ahead of the game already. We can effectively remove 10% of the player list from suspicion due to ZD's excellent play.

Let's get the lurkers out of the way first:

Smudge

-- We cannot let him slip under the radar and need to force him to really be substantive to make up for the time he missed and help the game state. If they can't handle the task, they need to replace out for someone that can.

Now the low posters:

Rach

-- Comments on the "thread explosion" & Talah male from game she modded. Pere suspicion good (Yates) because BB replaces regardless of alignment. Votes Pere for the same reason. Up to this point I see too much IOA; the BB issue is a great place for scum to hang their hat while contributing nothing to this game. Queries Talah on his townread of herself. Now this is universally considered a townie thing to do, so much so that its actually easy to fake; not that someone shouldn't do it because its NECESSARY but that it is easily a scum reflex action to appear as town. It is possible that my problems with Rach revolve around her lack of posting but I must have her as

leaning scum

.

Luca

-- Naked Doc vote; I especially don't like this because it was a wagon vote. Fencesitty BJC commentary & unprompted defense stating that early apathy is more likely to come from town than scum (??). I can see nothing that I like from Luca and he too must

lean scum

.

Aptil

-- Comments on Doc's RVS vote & would of voted Doc too but Doc posted good after that; I question this analysis as I disagree but it does appear Aptil actually believes this. Calls BJC

lynchbait

which Talah caught as a town reference; like Luca this is an unprompted defense and an easy thing for scum. What I really don't like is how he blankets Talah with a bad posting label but doesn't follow up with a vote; a vote at least signifies personal responsibility & a scum hunting mindset. Aptil needs to pick up his game as his viable content and player track is far too low.

null to scum

Pere

-- Neighborhood Q/T joke RVS vote with no other comment even though some genuine conflict has begun. Votes low hanging fruit in BJC but does point out that BJC skimming 30 posts sounds faked. Makes a comment about voting BB_replace_scum; obviously faulty analysis on its face but it DID force some people to bring BB meta up AND it created an easy target for those who are so desirous. I like the genuine scum hunting but dislike the target; the benefit of the doubt here lies in Pere returning to this thread for more genuine content.

Conditional null to town

Doc Holliday

-- Starts with a joke vote of BB. Adds to the early Talah case with some original spin concerning coalition building and Votes for Talah which was very strong but then weakens that terribly by indicating that he would be leaving the wagon at some point in the future ("for now") and uses the low hanging fruit BJC as a potential avenue to do so; this reads to me as "Boy I like wagons, let's get one wherever we can!" and because he weakened the wagon he was currently on, it indicates a certain insincerity with his convictions even though he later defends that read strongly; this is cog-dis. With this little to go on and most of it bad, Doc is

leaning scum

Now for everyone else:

DV

-- Votes Doc without explanation. Talah liked this and I will defer. Follows up with accusing Doc of deflecting by voting Talah because there is no game evidence for a Talah vote; I disagree with the conclusion here but like the function which is to draw Doc out. Points out that the Talah vote however is serious because Doc left his vote there in the face of BJC suspicion; this is original logic and genuine effort that I would find hard to fake. He holds Talah as null (early). Queries myself on Talah inquiry. Accuses Thad of posturing with BJC suspicion. Likes ZD's reads except for DG. He seems to slightly overreact however when ZD mentions his name in connection with a scum alignment. Queries Doc's #62 as inconsistent (which I don't understand but man more original and genuine thought/effort). Queries Talah about Mastin lurking/complaining and queries Mastin about Talah's ability to read him. Analysis post #110: Doc, Aptil, Thad as scum & maybe 1-2 more. I have read a game where DV contributes nowhere even close to how well he is posting this game. I certainly hope he keeps this up because he will be a tremendous asset to the town & game state.

Solid town

Talah

-- He is the most prolific poster in this game (density). He also is a very strong player. I would say he got off to a shaky start and then its like something clicked and he was filled with townie light that shone like the sun; I'm not taking credit or anything but it was in response to the pressure I directed at him. This positive change emerged with noting the Pere/Admiral joke interaction as possible scum buddying; I noticed the same thing and was impressed that he was thinking about the same possibility. I agree with the initial Doc push & meta help with DV analysis. Points out that the word "lynchbait"(Aptil) connotes town alignment which I found to be an excellent catch. The townie indignation was quite strong against Doc and what can we say? He went after Mastin with such force and conviction; could he actually fake something like that? I think its highly unlikely. He has some kind of theory about multiball & Mastin which could be quite valuable to the town if it could be true but I think his discretion should rule the day there. An excellent catch about Mastin's posting limitation as an excuse to lurk/complain. Pointed out cog-dis in Mastin's DG vote while so strongly suspecting himself & Mastin should be trying get him lynched. The Mastin vote was the full expression of a townie on fire. I think the Rach read is more along the lines of sentimental than substantial. Back to Mastin pointing out how Mastin gives easy town reads to low posters but a scum read to himself who has very much content to analyze. I agree with his take on Aptil. I can only admire his restraint with Mastin as he pulls away to keep himself balanced. I would say that Talah has obviously put alot of work into his game and can only see him as

strong town

BJC

-- Claims scum. Regardless of opinions regarding this post, it DID help to get the game rolling and its impact can STILL be felt in this game. He seems to overjustify his behavior with a timeline of his actions and makes a strange comment about "the usual people are too uptight" which I still don't understand. Votes Doc after skimming which also appears as over-justification of his behavior along with more timeline regarding content. Then, similar to Talah, something clicks and his posts take on a better character. He starts with cog-dis in Thad's joke criteria being OK for Pere but not OK for himself. He queries Doc on how his post can even be termed a gambit as nobody could possibly take it seriously; I found this to be quite impressive logic. He accurately points out Doc's fencesitting his wagon and then tells me I am talkative because he has read my game on site; that really did impress me. I like how he fully accepts Aptil's lynchbait assertion with a certain free flowing joy that is tough to fake. He actually did skim 30 posts. I like him calling DG out for his vote of himself and can only agree with his Luca appraisal as finger pointing. Man I wish this guy was around more but what I have seen can only be

town

Thad

-- Jokes back to Pere about the neighborhood Q/T; both Talah & I thought about possible scum buddying there. Likes my RVS though forced; I didn't like the fact that none of the content of my case was addressed there but you can't have everything I guess. Votes BJC; ZD actually awakened me to the idea that a player as ancient as Thad really shouldn't be voting BJC here and now that I think about it, I think it would be more consistent for Thad to

applaud

BJC's post in the same way that my posts were addressed; it helped to get us out of RVS. I can't help but notice (along with some other person in this game that I forget) that Thad preemptively hits the "I'm scum for taking the bait" note; I would give this town cred but subsequent posts show that he really believes it and wasn't using it to encourage reads. I liked his calling out of Anx for fencesitting his vote of myself because it showed he was paying attention in an analytical way. I agree with calling out Mastin for DG read (vs. Talah) and of course agree with his appraisal of Talah's "lynchbait" (via Aptil) and his Talah town read. Again showing an active mindset with his inquiry RE multiball ala Talah/Mastin. Thad remains unabashed at voting BJC for his "scum" post to the point of even accusing ZD of WK BJC; I guess this means that Thad is sincere here but man it feels good when a person stops hitting their head against a brick wall. Analysis post #143 Myself town, Talah town, DG inexperienced town (this got me thinking and is more of what I would like to see from Thad ie deeper game wisdom). Doc null-town; I can't really agree here but we both can agree Doc needs to post. Pere null, Luca null, BJC leaning scum for only interacting with those that voted him; here I think we can apply the same criteria that Thad used for Pere/Luca ie low posting. ZD scum for 6 scum reads and no town reads; here I certainly disagree as I had ZD as solid town FOR his scum hunting. I found Thad's view here an oversimplification that again, lacks the wisdom I would expect to see from Thad. Anx weak votes myself/Gant leaning scum, Aptil weak/questionable read on BJC null-scum. I disagreed with Thad's vote of ZD and his accusations that ZD was not scum hunting just sound wrong and the town reads issue contrived even though the logic of balanced reads is correct. I like his defense of DG which got me thinking. Of course I agree with Thad's ultimate clearing of ZD but don't understand why it took that to get him to see ZD as at least leaning town with reservations instead of scum. Thad votes Anx. I need to check my analysis notes but I think I have Anx as improving with more recent posts and I suspect I will again find divergence with Thad. I am terribly conflicted with Thad as I see some of the wise play I would expect but some astonishing play that I would not expect. I can see Thad as town and as scum and so I can only have him as

null

This is what I have so far and again, I will attempt to complete an analysis on the other players once I have caught up (WELP!)