The Reckoning III (Math is Hard) Holy crap, perfect town win

[Your New Gay Overlords]

I have more people I think are town than people I think are scum. Prior to wagon analysis, there was a whole blegh pool of players that all melded together and were the same grey brothy goop of null-ness in my head:

Magua, Jordan, Ythan, Antihero, Pie, Cheery Dog, Axxle

By breaking people up into different categories based on potential scum behaviors, it helped me to process it in bite sized bits. I have no interest in going back and reading the thread to try and find something to fit my theory because that's how fucking confirmation bias happens and it'll likely not help. I'm much more interested in optimizing our chances at hitting correctly.

[Your New Gay Overlords]

here let me explain like this

these are role related things that i care about

confirmed town
confirmed town barring very small % circumstances (godfathers, etc.)
confirmed scum
confirmed scum barring very small % circumstances (tracker guilties or something i guess)

these are role related things that i don't care about

everything else
still everything else
yeah everything else can get fucked

Must be nice when the world revolves around you, huh?

I don't give a fuck what you do or don't care about regarding role related things. I didn't analyze the wagons and come up with potential scenarios to satisfy you.

[Gammagooey]

reck do you have any reason for voting cheery dog that is explainable with the individual actual readable posts he has made in this game that can be attributed to him and only him

[Your New Gay Overlords]

His pushes on mollie have been utter shit?

[Gammagooey]

personally i feel like they're more mediocre than shit

is there a particular reason why they are shit and/or worse than my push on mollie yesterday?

[Your New Gay Overlords]

because none of them are fueled by reasons, he just takes anything Mollie says and calls it bad without reasoning

The only thing he gave reasoning for was his contrived swap back from "oh mollie is firmly town bc meta" to "no nvm mollie isn't town because shes trying to find a waffles buddy". Like how is that even a reason to think she's scum? If she thinks Waffles is scum ofc shee'll look for a buddy

[Magua]

Spoiler alert: In this post I agree with Gamma a whole bunch.

Re: Gamma's message. This is utterly ignorable. The only thing that will ever make it non-ignorable in my eyes is if someone is going to claim to be responsible for it. Until that point, too many possibilities. Could be the truth. Could be Gamma lying. Could be scum messenger lying. Could even be a motherfucking town messenger lying for whatever reason. It's not mod confirmed, so its ignored. Thinking Cheery Dog is scum is fine. Thinking Waffles is scum is lulz, but whatever. Trying to justify either of those based on the message is insane. Trying to lynch one or the other to confirm one or the other is just in

s

anity. The sheer amount of wasted effort in regards to this message is just mind-boggling.

Holy shit, mollie, disengage from posting for two seconds and think about things. Holy. Shit. But, mollie's town. Whole bunch of people are piling on mollie for pushing on UT when there is no conceivable way that UT can be scum without Waffles being scum. Yes, this is bad play on mollie's part. But it's not scum play. Waffles already has suspicion on them from some corners, mollie-scum could jump on that, but jumping on UT just gets her derision. And she sticks to it bulldoggishly, not like, "Oh, didn't think that through, new thing," but "Everyone's wrong but me" (2555). Not scum.

Meanwhile Axxle just jumps into the thread to state a bunch of facts (mollie's VT claim, Waffles' claim), and a vote for Jordan (appreciated), and...well, that's it.

YNGO's posts have also been bad. Information ("Yo mollie, let me explain logic to you"), a whole bunch of prettily-formatted VCAs that completely lack in the A department, and, then a whole bunch of wishy-washy shit ("Gamma's vote on AD could've been scum...or town! Ythan's role could be scum...or town!" Etc.) And even their statements are pretty off, eg, "19 player game? 5-6 scum + survivor sounds totally legit." That last one's not alignment indicative, per se, since it's just so bizarrely wrong, but it does indicate to me that Reck's not

really

trying to figure shit out, and is more just mumbling along. Especially 2599 where he spends time considering the flavor names of the Mafia which, given that Eaglekit fakeclaimed "That one game where Mina was scum and didn't laugh" means that scum has fakeclaims and the whole train of thought is useless.

PEdit: Ooooh, can't wait to see the insults Reck directs my way after the above.

---

Do not think EagleKit was bussing with the guilty on mollie. I think it was a last-ditch effort to solidify the mollie lynch (which had gotten up to the effective L-1) and put off their own.

Still think Jordan's "Eleven was town" post was calculated to look like a townslip. Do not like that immediately after it its all "Going to go away and come back with a mission statement" and then comes back with "What is anti scum" and "This is impossible".

Townsville (S->W): UT-->Waffles-->mollie------->Ythan------->Gammagooey----------->Antihero-->Iecerint (Iece is literally just because of role)

Scum City (S->W): Jordan-->YNGO-------------->Axxle-->Cheery Dog---------->Pie

[Untrod Tripod]

so can I count on you to vote for the gay aliens, magua?

[Magua]

When it's time to lynch, sure. But pressuring Reck won't do anything, whereas pressuing Jordan, Axxle, or Cheery might.

[Your New Gay Overlords]

YNGO's posts have also been bad. Information ("Yo mollie, let me explain logic to you"), a whole bunch of prettily-formatted VCAs that completely lack in the A department, and, then a whole bunch of wishy-washy shit ("Gamma's vote on AD could've been scum...or town! Ythan's role could be scum...or town!" Etc.) And even their statements are pretty off, eg, "19 player game? 5-6 scum + survivor sounds totally legit." That last one's not alignment indicative, per se, since it's just so bizarrely wrong, but it does indicate to me that Reck's not

really

trying to figure shit out, and is more just mumbling along. Especially 2599 where he spends time considering the flavor names of the Mafia which, given that Eaglekit fakeclaimed "That one game where Mina was scum and didn't laugh" means that scum has fakeclaims and the whole train of thought is useless.

- Yeah, getting mollie to calm down and trying to get her to understand the claim is

sooo bad

. Jesus I should just kill myself for trying to explain logic to another player! It's almost like what you're pointing out as being "bad" here isn't actually bad and is instead just a thing that people do sometimes to help other people. Shocking!

- I believe I even stated

in the one post where I put the colored vote count

that I wasn't trying to do heavy analysis and just needed information compiled in a concise/clear manner for me to reference. Congratulations -- you're right, I posted a post with data in it after admitting I was only posting a post with data in it!!

- Explaining reads isn't a bad thing. If I don't have a strong opinion on a certain thing I'm not going to make up a strong opinion on that thing for the hell of it.

- I was way off with the numbers... I forgot we had a third party already flipped. So in my mind, it was 3:9->4:12->5:15->6:18 and I think I was looking at the second number as total number of players instead of number of town players. What can I say? Math is hard.

- The point of scum flavor spec wasn't because I thought we could catch them. No shit they have fake claims. It was to figure out how many scum there could possibly be if they were drinking game based because I didn't remember us playing that many different drinking games and at that point I was thinking 4-6 scum.

[Your New Gay Overlords]

hey look UT still being fucking retarded

YEAHHH EYAHHHH

[Your New Gay Overlords]

Usually I wouldn't care so much and I'd just be a major fucking dick about it in endgame but we're 2/2 for lynches so far and I really want a flawless victory

[Untrod Tripod]

you're aware that you're not going to get under my skin, right?

[Magua]

Reck: Less words into defending yourself that

no one

I don't care about, more words into actually

pretending to

saying who is scum. Your entire case on Cheery Dog, as near as I can figure from the 1% of content you have amongst the 99% fluff, is that Cheery didn't vote for ActionDan or EagleKit. Which is super odd to say because you're in the same exact boat, so if it's a good reason to be voting for Cheery, it's also an equally good reason to be voting for you. You also push Gamma's message, simultaneously saying that it's scum motivated for WIFOM and that we should be lynching Cheery because of it.

That's about the long and short of it. Feel free to enlighten me as to what I missed.

[Ythan]

MOLLIE. HOLY FUCKING SHIT.

are you just NOT READING or NOT THINKING about what you've read

Mollie is literally reading every other post of the thread.

[Ythan]

I hope she doesn't see that one.

[Cheery Dog]

Actually, why is it bad to vote him for being a specific category of people? You just throw that out there like it's this assumed negative thing. He never voted for scum.

Let me fix this then. (Even though mollie and/or anti/nuwen are probably still scum)

VOTE: Your New Gay Overlords

[Magua]

Cheery, can you kindly explain to me how you went from "mollie isn't scum" in 2350 at the beginning of the Day to "mollie is probably scum" in 2515 yesterday?

[Cheery Dog]

Cheery, can you kindly explain to me how you went from "mollie isn't scum" in 2350 at the beginning of the Day to "mollie is probably scum" in 2515 yesterday?

I went not scum due to eaglekit faking a guilty on her.
I then went back into believing she scum because she's still playing scummy. (also a marathon happened in this time frame where scum guiltied their buddy and made me rethink how much I was willing to gamble on just going opposite of what flipped scum fakeclaimed)

[Magua]

So, just to verify. With Eagle-scum and mollie-scum, you think:

It's D2, Eagle's bussing mollie and mollie is voting you. Your wagon and mollie's wagon are both at effective L-2, and mollie-scum sees a proto-wagon on Eagle for no reason other than that Eagle's being a lurker, and decides to jump on that rather than push yours?

[Cheery Dog]

So, just to verify. With Eagle-scum and mollie-scum, you think:

It's D2, Eagle's bussing mollie and mollie is voting you. Your wagon and mollie's wagon are both at effective L-2, and mollie-scum sees a proto-wagon on Eagle for no reason other than that Eagle's being a lurker, and decides to jump on that rather than push yours?

Well I don't consider she had any reason to actually be on mine.
I don't really understand anything to do with the wagon that was on me, so I'm just ignoring it's previous existence.

[Magua]

Well, rephrase then: mollie decides to abandon your L-2 wagon to bus her buddy's L-5 wagon instead?

[Cheery Dog]

Well, rephrase then: mollie decides to abandon your L-2 wagon to bus her buddy's L-5 wagon instead?

It a L-3 wagon at the time.

Bugger if I know, but I can settle with not lynching mollie yet.

[Magua]

*kicks the dead

horse

thread*

I like how on the activity list, alt-slips make up a third of the posters.

I don't like Jordan getting pressure, then disappearing with "I'll be back with a mission statement", then coming back and asking questions, then disappearing, while posting elsewhere.

[A Simple Math Problem]

don't mind me; I'm just bumping this.