Mini 1555 Board Game UPick Mafia--Game Over!

[Porkens]

Yeah, you are right; it doesn't help.

I realize if you didn't use it under those circumstances it would confirm you as town.

I'm not on auto-pilot, honestly. But because of the reasons I stated about SpyreX and Quill, and PoE with myself and Kdub, I don't know what could come up that would sway me about lynching between AUN, you, and Morph. Of the 3, AUN is my first pick. His point, however, is extremely valid. I assume you can appreciate that position.

P-edit: Do you really expect us to have such confidence that your role wouldn't be given to scum?

[Hadrian]

I said I could understand the paranoia, but I still don't know why it would be given to scum. Not the gladiator part, that would, but the double votes thing.

Do you think Aun and morph make sense as a scum team? This is my problem. I do think that a un's responses look self-serving and are fake paranoia. It's obvious we haven't even begun to think of scum uses of our role because we don't have a scum mindset.

I mean, I would love it if it was morph/awesome, that would mean our utility lynch meant something, but I'm not sure they are.

But every scum pairing we thought of yesterday had kdub in it, so our reads were completely off.

The one thing that has me most concerned is that pless has been wondering if morphs role does have a vote thief component to it. Wait a second, I need to think about their role some more.

I mean something's wrong here, but that something wrong is not us.

[Hadrian]

Here's my problem. Aun will most likely be the lynch tomorrow, and I think he knows that. If he's scum with either spyrex or quill, town loses because morph is set up to be the lylo mislynch in that case. AND if it's morph and quill/spyrex then awesome being the mislynch loses the game.

I don't know, they're both scummy and could very well be the scum team but I'm just not sure.

I mean I guess I can take comfort in the fact that it's utility and no one would even be considering lynching us right now if it weren't for this stupid role, but I also think that people are looking where there's no cause for concern, and I get the paranoia but we have the potential to be confirmed town in lylo or actually lynch scum today, which would be better! If I were scum, I'm sure I'd be playing this whole gladiator thing differently. I mean, I'd be playing this whole game differently, but yeah.

Maybe it s aun/morph and I'm just a big sucker.

[SpyreX]

There wouldn't be bluster in the first place if we didn't get criticized

for trying to figure ut the game in the first place

Just lynch us. This is a town loss anyway if it's not awesome/morph. If it is awesome/morph town win yay utility lynches work woohoo.

But if not, kdub and we are the only people trying to figure out the game, so town loss, shame on people for going on auto pilot.

See this. This doesn't help.

Believe it or not I'm not on autopilot. But I also don't feel the need to devote as much energy to scenarios that aren't as obvious. For shits sake I literally asked you to give me a reason to not vote you and its back to "figuring out the game".

Of the grouping I'm most interested in (Hadrian, AUN, morph). I want AUN lynched the most. On top of his role in the pairing lands he makes more sense then Hadrian-morph smokescreen gambit. I haven't "disregarded" Quil but I've asked whats the angle on motivating town. Cred? All the cred in the universe doesn't save scum if a scum gets lynched today.

Then there's AUN's fuckin throwout on you without a vote behind it.

But then there's the last two pages off of porkens single vote and the fuck it.

If porkens is scum he's played me so masterfully I can't help but applaud him. That hasn't happened - I don't meta but I ~meta~ all over him. This is town porkens.
I keep getting bandied about and if you really want to put that spyrex-scum whispers to rest then lets go. If thats what it takes to move this forward then lets do it.

But even if you're offended at the idea of being lynched today because if you are scum it does win the game tomorrow I don't know what to say. I mean good lord you know the 'risk' can't be taken to clear it because at that point the dice would have been already thrown.

[morph the cat]

Maybe it s aun/morph

It's not. We, at least, are town.

But if our card flip is the only thing that will convince the rest of town, then it needs to happen when there's still room for a mislynch.

[morph the cat]

ffery head v/la until Wednesday

[Porkens]

Who is performing the kills? Can we analyze night actions?

Night 1: Madotsuki neighborized, Porkens Self-watched, SpyreX watched hip lop, Shroomish jail kept morph, morph was jailed, Quill did nothing,
…I'll try to finish later.

Wait, before I go, I was reading back and now I'm really confused about something.

Awesomeusername

, how did you know that Kdub was town before he claimed? Am I missing something about your role? I really want you, AUN, to answer this.

[Hadrian]

I'll respond to spyrex tomorrow, I'm crashing.

[Kdub]

Who is performing the kills? Can we analyze night actions?

I was thinking the same thing earlier, but if scum can perform kills along with other actions, then we can't really figure anything out from this. And with Quill's claim of using two actions last night, it seems to be possible.

Whoever you think we should lynch today, you should also think of a plan for tonight's actions in the event that they 1) flip town, or 2) flip scum.

It's pretty much down to awesome vs. morph today. Quill's motivate of Porkens was pro-town, and motivator makes little sense for a scum role anyway. SpyreX would have had to have come up with a crazy gambit that involved him knowing that Mado's neighborize would be a manipulative action and subsequently getting his partner lynched. I kinda think awesome is slightly more likely to be scum than morph at this point because the evidence on him is more objective (oddly structured role claim that is potentially inconsistent with what Porkens got from him). However, his role is confirmed, so even if he is scum, we know he can't mess with anything tonight. morph, on the other hand, could have any sort of ability as scum, so there are more unknowns involved.

[Hadrian]

I haven't "disregarded" Quil but I've asked whats the angle on motivating town. Cred? All the cred in the universe doesn't save scum if a scum gets lynched today.

You've said this or something like it a couple of times now. I guess I must be missing something because I don't really understand your confidence. Suppose that Quill is scum. His partner is in {Hadrian, AUN, Morph}. You lynch those three people, in whatever order. Even if you hit scum first time, doesn't scum!Quill just win?

Motivating Porkens (who does seem to be almost certainly town) is a point in Quill's favour, sure. I just don't think it's a hugely important point - it certainly doesn't rule out the possibility of scum!Quill, to my mind. (And if username is scum, then scum

already knew

that Porkens didn't have a very powerful role, so what were scum risking here?) I'm troubled by the fact he claims to have a roleblock on top of his "normal" night action. I'm troubled by the coincidence of him just happening to roleblock Morph, for reasons he can't articulate very well. I can't find a good reason to rule him out as either username

or

Morph's partner, and (again, point out what I'm missing if I am missing something?) it seems to me that if he's either one then town is going to lose.

However, his role is confirmed, so even if he is scum, we know he can't mess with anything tonight.

morph, on the other hand, could have any sort of ability as scum, so there are more unknowns involved

.

Yes, the bolded is a worry of mine too. Since morph's day 2 gambit, I've been slightly worried about the idea that morph might

really

have the ability to remove people's votes (which is the consistent part of all his claims) but that this ability might not be tied to any sort of post-restriction-giving or whatever else morph has claimed at various times. Because they've (apparently) been blocked three nights in a row, we don't know what Morph was originally planning to do with their role - maybe they really did expect Surye to lose his vote (and were planning to claim "oh, the lie detector stuff was just a gambit" after that?). I'm also worried about the fact Cabd seems to be doing most of the heavy lifting in that hydra since (going by their own words from a past game's postgame discussion) that's apparently a good scum-tell for their hydra.

But ffery has given RL reasons for not being that active this month, so I'm not sure how much to trust that. And some of Morph's interaction with us earlier has felt pretty genuine (I'm thinking not so much about the "oh, lynch me now!" stuff, which I dislike, but of some of the posts during the big Hadrian/Morph exchanges just before today's mass-claim).

[Kdub]

OK, let's say we lynch morph. Maybe we have SpyreX follow Quill to make sure he doesn't perform the kill? If morph flips town, it gets a bit more tricky.

awesome, did you get complete flavor information (i.e. ability names) when you investigate people?

[Hadrian]

OK, let's say we lynch morph. Maybe we have SpyreX follow Quill to make sure he doesn't perform the kill?

There's a pretty obvious reason why this plan doesn't work, isn't there? (Otherwise I'd have agreed with SpyreX that town wins if we hit scum today.)

On the other hand ... say username is lynched today and he flips scum. Then have Morph agree to redirect us to target Quill tonight. Porkens has confirmed our role is what we've claimed it to be, so it would be impossible for us to block or otherwise redirect Morph tonight if we were scum. So if Morph redirects us to Quill and somebody other than Quill dies, we're confirmed to be town (if Morph lies about redirecting us, they're scum). On the other hand, if Quill

does

die, then we're

not

confirmed as town ... but that doesn't matter any more because we've already reduced the suspect pool to {Hadrian, morph} and (unless SpyreX or Porkens are scum, neither of whim seems at all credible) that means town wins anyway.

So I think that if we lynch username and he's scum, town actually

does

win. And if he's town, then (because we'd prove ourselves town by

not

gladiating anyone, as Tammy said earlier), we'd be confirmed town too. And scum would then

have

to be Quill/Morph. (Although, as it happens, I'd rank that as the least likely of the three possible pairings of {Morph, Quill, AUN} right now; Morph/AUN seems the most likely and Quill/AUN at least helps to explains the decision to motivate Porkens, as I said in my last post.)

In fact, I think I've persuaded myself that lynching AUN is actually the way to go today. Can somebody tell me if there's a hole in the above plan I'm not spotting? (I mean apart from the irritating 'but this might be lylo so let's vote for somebody we have a townread on!' paranoia, which I don't know what I can do to address at this point.)

[Quill]

It's pretty much down to awesome vs. morph today. Quill's motivate of Porkens was pro-town, and motivator makes little sense for a scum role anyway. SpyreX would have had to have come up with a crazy gambit that involved him knowing that Mado's neighborize would be a manipulative action and subsequently getting his partner lynched. I kinda think awesome is slightly more likely to be scum than morph at this point because the evidence on him is more objective (oddly structured role claim that is potentially inconsistent with what Porkens got from him). However, his role is confirmed, so even if he is scum, we know he can't mess with anything tonight. morph, on the other hand, could have any sort of ability as scum, so there are more unknowns involved.

I think this is why I'm starting to come down on the fence for taking out Morph over Awesome today. Awesome does seem a little more likely to be scum, but we know some of what he can do because we've seen it in action, even if the part about him losing his role is a little odd. We have no idea what Morph's role is beyond what they've claimed. If they flip town, we autoflip Awesome in the morning and get ourselves down to a single remaining scum.

That said, if town consensus is to kill Awesome just to be safe, I can get on board with that too. Awesome's defense these last few posts hasn't been sitting well with me, and if Morph is scum he's the likeliest partner anyway.

Motivating Porkens (who does seem to be almost certainly town) is a point in Quill's favour, sure. I just don't think it's a hugely important point - it certainly doesn't rule out the possibility of scum!Quill, to my mind. (And if username is scum, then scum

already knew

that Porkens didn't have a very powerful role, so what were scum risking here?) I'm troubled by the fact he claims to have a roleblock on top of his "normal" night action. I'm troubled by the coincidence of him just happening to roleblock Morph, for reasons he can't articulate very well. I can't find a good reason to rule him out as either username

or

Morph's partner, and (again, point out what I'm missing if I am missing something?) it seems to me that if he's either one then town is going to lose.

I don't understand what I'm not articulating well about my decision to roleblock Morph last night, as I've explained it several times in-thread, but I'll be happy to go into it again if you think it's the best tangent to deal with today.

OK, let's say we lynch morph. Maybe we have SpyreX follow Quill to make sure he doesn't perform the kill?

There's a pretty obvious reason why this plan doesn't work, isn't there? (Otherwise I'd have agreed with SpyreX that town wins if we hit scum today.)

On the other hand ... say username is lynched today and he flips scum. Then have Morph agree to redirect us to target Quill tonight. Porkens has confirmed our role is what we've claimed it to be, so it would be impossible for us to block or otherwise redirect Morph tonight if we were scum. So if Morph redirects us to Quill and somebody other than Quill dies, we're confirmed to be town (if Morph lies about redirecting us, they're scum). On the other hand, if Quill

does

die, then we're

not

confirmed as town ... but that doesn't matter any more because we've already reduced the suspect pool to {Hadrian, morph} and (unless SpyreX or Porkens are scum, neither of whim seems at all credible) that means town wins anyway.

So I think that if we lynch username and he's scum, town actually

does

win. And if he's town, then (because we'd prove ourselves town by

not

gladiating anyone, as Tammy said earlier), we'd be confirmed town too. And scum would then

have

to be Quill/Morph. (Although, as it happens, I'd rank that as the least likely of the three possible pairings of {Morph, Quill, AUN} right now; Morph/AUN seems the most likely and Quill/AUN at least helps to explains the decision to motivate Porkens, as I said in my last post.)

In fact, I think I've persuaded myself that lynching AUN is actually the way to go today. Can somebody tell me if there's a hole in the above plan I'm not spotting? (I mean apart from the irritating 'but this might be lylo so let's vote for somebody we have a townread on!' paranoia, which I don't know what I can do to address at this point.)

This plan seems to make sense...my one objection was that it doesn't work if Awesome is town, but if he's town then you're confirmed town already and scum has to be within myself, Morph and Spyrex. So I'm okay with this if we lynch Awesome instead of Morph. In fact, slightly backtracking from the above, it makes way more sense to lynch Awesome instead of Morph, if only because we have the opportunity to try out this trick.

@Quill: I think morph/Quill makes more sense than morph/Hadrian. More of a gut thing, though. Why do you think you/morph doesn't make sense? The roleblock?

The roleblock is part of it, yeah. I guess (not necessarily knowing everything I've done that accidentally looks scummy to the rest of you) it's more that I don't see any interactions where I've indicated that Morph and I are working together, whereas the two of them have had long, distractive spats that don't go anywhere, yet they don't really seem at odds with each other once those are done. Morph/Hadrian is one of the least likely pairs, I'll acknowledge, but there's a handful of points in its favor I'm not able to see in my own play.

[Porkens]

This plan seems to make sense...my one objection was that it doesn't work if Awesome is town, but

if he's town then you're confirmed town

already and scum has to be within myself, Morph and Spyrex. So I'm okay with this if we lynch Awesome instead of Morph. In fact, slightly backtracking from the above, it makes way more sense to lynch Awesome instead of Morph, if only because we have the opportunity to try out this trick.

How does that work?

[awesomeusername]

Hadrian has a point that he's not playing like I would expect scum to play in his position. While I think it'd be optimal for scum-Hadrian not to use his gladiate today, it wouldn't be hard for him to push me to a lynch and win.

In particular, I think a morph-Hadrian scum team could've speedlynched me while Porkens and SpyreX were voting me. So that's out. Let's see, I was at L-2 from 1418 to 1468, and I think everyone posted in between then. Quill and Hadrian were also online at the same time in posts 1435/1436, so a Quill-Hadrian scum team's out, too. That means if Hadrian's scum it's with SpyreX (most likely).

This means from my PoV it's

morph-Quill <-- most likely

morph-Hadrian

morph-SpyreX

Quill-Hadrian

Quill-SpyreX
Hadrian-SpyreX

From everyone else's PoV it's:

morph-Quill

morph-Hadrian

morph-SpyreX

Quill-Hadrian

Quill-SpyreX
Hadrian-SpyreX
AUN-morph
AUN-Quill
AUN-Hadrian
AUN-SpyreX
AUN-Porkens

I'm in over half of these; maybe I am the best lynch...

Awesome - how does you being town make it more significant that we're scum?

Narrows the scum pool. If I'm town, you're in a group of 4 people, two of which are scum (and one is SpyreX). If I'm scum, you're in a group of 5 people, one of which is scum (two are Porkens and SpyreX, unlikely to be scum). I'm willing to bet you're town now, though. (More

likely

, not more

significant

)

Wait, before I go, I was reading back and now I'm really confused about something.

Awesomeusername

, how did you know that Kdub was town before he claimed? Am I missing something about your role? I really want you, AUN, to answer this.

I targeted Kdub last night. I received his role PM (without the alignment), so I knew he was an innocent child. I don't think it's possible to have an anti-town IC, but even if it was, I specifically didn't lose my vote, so I knew I hadn't targeted scum. Make sense?

awesome, did you get complete flavor information (i.e. ability names) when you investigate people?

Yeah. Still awaiting mod's response to my question as to whether I'm allowed to say them. Why do you ask if you already believe my role?

@Hadrian's plan: So lynching me makes us win if neither you nor SpyreX is scum? I'd feel a bit better about this if it was someone else who suggested it, but your play today almost confirms you as town, so… Better hope SpyreX isn't scum.

LET'S DO THIS.

UNVOTE: morph the cat
VOTE: awesomeusername

[Quill]

This plan seems to make sense...my one objection was that it doesn't work if Awesome is town, but

if he's town then you're confirmed town

already and scum has to be within myself, Morph and Spyrex. So I'm okay with this if we lynch Awesome instead of Morph. In fact, slightly backtracking from the above, it makes way more sense to lynch Awesome instead of Morph, if only because we have the opportunity to try out this trick.

How does that work?

Because he targeted you and didn't lose his vote, which he says would have happened if you were scum. I thought we'd established this.

[Quill]

And

Vote: awesomeusername

. That's L-1, so if we need to talk about anything else for overnight we should do it now, before Kdub or someone else hammers.

[awesomeusername]

Actually, this seems kinda silly when I'm pretty sure morph is scum. As long you'll kill him tomorrow after I flip town…

Also, if we do decide that we're gonna lynch me, we should consider having Hadrian gladiate me. If I'm town (which I am) and he's scum, he can win anyways if he's scum, and if I'm scum, then he can't use the gladiate to auto win and we'll figure out whether he's scum or not tomorrow anyways.

@Quill: My townflip won't necessarily clear Hadrian since Porkens might not have gotten the vote-losing thing.

@Hadrian: If you post right now you can confirm yourself once and for all as town (or if you're scum you can win).

And @everyone, make sure not to hammer until we've got everything squared away for tonight.

[Hadrian]

Um, you could unvote him, and then we wouldn't be in danger of anyone hammering and talk about what we wanted to talk about.

[Porkens]

Aren't you talking to Hadrian in that post?

[Porkens]

This plan seems to make sense...my one objection was that it doesn't work if Awesome is town, but

if he's town then you're confirmed town

already and scum has to be within myself, Morph and Spyrex. So I'm okay with this if we lynch Awesome instead of Morph. In fact, slightly backtracking from the above, it makes way more sense to lynch Awesome instead of Morph, if only because we have the opportunity to try out this trick.

How does that work?

Because he targeted you and didn't lose his vote, which he says would have happened if you were scum. I thought we'd established this.

Aren't you talking to Hadrian in that post?

[Porkens]

Awesome, if you think Hadrian can be scum, what the fuck are you doing self-voting?

[awesomeusername]

The plan is as follows:

morph redirects Hadrian to Quill (or vice versa, don't see why it matters).
SpyreX follows morph (to make sure he does what he says)

UNVOTE: awesomeusername (I wanna hammer)

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[awesomeusername]

Hadrian is conftown now.

[awesomeusername]

I was pretty sure Hadrian wasn't scum (he and his possible scumbuddies could've lynched me earlier), but it was still possible (though quite unlikely) that his buddy was SpyreX. And if scum was Hadrian-SpyreX, they'd probably win anyway.

Now I'm 99% convinced it's morph and Quill.

VOTE: morph the cat