NY 172: Another Large Normal (GAME OVER)

[Snork]

Don't be a douche. Just cuz it didn't help YOU doesn't mean it didn't help the rest of us.

[TheWayItEnds]

Alright then, if your new info is helpful for everyone else, what has me being town cleared up for you.

[Damon_Gant]

After overnight reading of all dead scum's ISOs, I think I've identified ThAd as very potentially a member of the scumteam. Peregrine is also implicated by this kind of analysis, but to a lesser extent. I'll present the case in a more substantive way when I'm in a non-procrastinating mood.

Also we still have the very pressing issue of an unaccounted for kill yesterday. I think in this case, it's true that the instinctive answer is the correct one, and that SiX is in fact the SK.

[SiX]

While I don't get why you take a Mafia's last words into account I'm glad that you suspect me of being the SK.
That favours the town very well.

Last night I was considering whether or not I ought to protect Snork or RM. I obviously value trading my life for Snork way more than to trade it for another JOAT. The scums most likely also expected that I would go for protecting Snork over RM and thus they shot RM, who is a power-role and is less risked being protected. The fact that they also did that proves they believe the JOAT story over the SK story. If they wouldn't, Snork or I would already have been dead tonight.

Now, what if I say I didn't protect anyone last night? That would mean my Bodyguard ability is still in action.

*

As Town I wouldn't dare to pass yet another round and would definently use it tonight on Snork.
As SK I may be lying that I even have the bodyguard ability.
Or what if I as Town-JOAT used the protection last round on Snork and now claims I didn't just to increase his safety?

The only way for the mafias to find out is through shooting Snork, not me.
Shooting me, would kill me. Shooting Snork would kill me if

*

is applied.
But through having me die, the mafias would lose a precious SK suspect (lynch) and I highly believe they don't want to afford finding out which is what.

That said, TWIE is in the danger zone now after confirmed by Snork not having a gun.

Also, the mafia(s) out there obviously thinks why the hell I am sharing this with you. Simply to confuse you which really is the truth.

________
Not going to go into details about why I'm not the SK with Damon, since that would obviously lower you guys guards and cease the chance of suspecting me.
But what I want to point out is that i'm abit curious on ThAdmiral and Damon_Giant.
So what's stated above are any of the posibilities and I promise, either of the 3 is the truth. You have my words for that

[Snork]

It eliminated you as a possible suspect. We're looking for at most two people, though I'm thinking 1-4-15 for the numbers, so more likely 1.

DG, that's what I think as well. ThAd looks ripe on the wagons.

p-edit: Ok.

What were RM's two abilities?

[SiX]

Jailkeep and Friendly Neighbourizing. if I recal correctly, she used FN on nero Cain (Dead) and still had Jailkeep stored.

[Snork]

Right. That's what I thought. So why the hell would she jailkeep me? That would block my ability. Seems more likely she jailkept you.

[SiX]

@Snork, So what you're saying is that RM roleblocked me and I couldn't send in a nightkill the same round the mafias would favour me through killing the one who roleblocked me?

[Damon_Gant]

While I don't get why you take a Mafia's last words into account I'm glad that you suspect me of being the SK.
That favours the town very well.

Where did I say that what AP had to say factored into my thinking at all? It did not. I do not believe that mafia rolecopped you or whatever nonsense AP spouted. I just believe you're SK because the second kill came up yesterday, and you're the most logical explanation for it.

[Snork]

She's not a roleblocker. She's a jailkeeper. If they thought you were being roleblocked, they would have killed you.

One has nothing to do with the other. RM didn't jailkeep me. I got my result. The only person she would have jailkept is you.

[TheWayItEnds]

This is all useless.

We arent lynching 6 today.

[projectmatt]

One of Aptil or SiX are mafia for sure, but I'm not sure. How plausible is it for there to be two town JOATS in one game?

Anyway, I'm thinking and trying to figure it out. I'm actually pleasantly surprised that just about all of my reads have been correct so far. Hm..

I'm trying to figure out what to look for.

[projectmatt]

Actually screw it

vote: Aptil

[projectmatt]

Oh wow, I'm a huge idiot who completely misread a crucial part of the text. Forget it.

Unvote

[Damon_Gant]

This is all useless.

We arent lynching 6 today.

Why not?

[TheWayItEnds]

Because hes prob town.

[penguin_alien]

I'm not sure Yates would set the stage for lynching yet another buddy in calling out ThAd. Have been on the go today, more thoughts tonight.

First order of business is to see if RM crumbed a JK target, since an SK or last of a four-man Mafia team would presumably have been foiled by a roleblock.

[Snork]

I'm sure Yates didn't think he was going to be modkilled either.

[penguin_alien]

Sure, but if it was a four-man Mafia team, how much sense does it make for him to push his last buddy like that? Admittedly he was in good position, but I don't think he was in such good position that he could count on getting to 3p LyLo and winning. Especially assuming there's an SK in play, someone generally being town read like Yates would have been at risk of eating the SK NK.

Also worth considering is that we've had three goons flip. A four man team against an SK and a town JOAT and a gunsmith so far with no more than one PR seems weak. Outside chance a Mafia doc who'd be immune to the gunsmith and be able to protect his team from the SK would be enough.

Is it possible we have five Mafia and there's a non-SK explanation for the double kill N2? I'm spitballing here, but something seems wonky.

[penguin_alien]

Nothing in RM's ISO to indicate any JK crumb, not surprising I guess given that she said she was saving it for likely one scum, which wasn't at all likely to be last night pre-modkill.

[Snork]

Outside chance a Mafia doc who'd be immune to the gunsmith and be able to protect his team from the SK would be enough.

I was thinking exactly this last night.

[Egg]

Vote ThAd

[penguin_alien]

So the thing is, Yates was the one who suggested mastin slipped WRT the four-man Mafia team in 2684. We can wander down the WIFOM path all we'd like about how sincere it was, but bottom line is I think we need to consider the information tainted and consider the options. Since no one's taken responsibility for the second kill N2, we have to assume it was from some flavor of scum. I have played in games with scum vigs before, but it seems supremely unlikely such would hold a shot until N2 if given a choice in the matter. Easy answer is still SK.

The idea of a Mafia doc as scum's only power is that it puts a lot of eggs in one basket assuming a 4-man scum team.

Speaking of eggs, Egg, talk to me about ThAd. I skimmed your ISO with my trusty Ctrl + F, and every mention of ThAd from you doesn't come with reasons why you think he's scum, just that you're willing to lynch him to various degrees.

[Egg]

Ignore stuff from earlier. That was mostly compromise. Now it's mostly process of elimination.

[Snork]

On D1, I was suspicious of ThAd because of the way he defended Talah. I was convinced Talah was scum so I found this really pretty odd, but really the town flip doesn't change that. D2, he pushed RM with me and it difficult not to agree with a lot of what he was saying, and to think it came from town. But then he pushed Nero and that was really scummy to me. When I looked over the VCs yesterday and today, his votes just kind of stuck out to me. At first I thought it was the bolding, so I even changed that the italics. But that didn't change anything. His votes were really odd and I can't really explain how, they just are.