NY 172: Another Large Normal (GAME OVER)

[TheWayItEnds]

Egg tell me how ThAd is scummier than PV. Cause theres no way im seeing that.

[Egg]

Well, let's start with this. What is scummy about Pere?

[TheWayItEnds]

Everything?

go read his day 2 iso its all piles of shit disguised as content by asking others to generate content.

the only original thought that came out of that slot day 2 involved a sentence from pisskop that he said was different than others.

Then, after calling him out he says i only think hes scummy because he called me scum, disregarding that i did that first.

Day 3 is his shady as fuck hammer before the entire playerbase had even posted in thread.

You know what, dont even do that.

Just tell me what his stance is on half the players in the game.

Dude has literally zero reads.

[Egg]

Ok.

I mean Pere is on my PoE list anyway and may have had my vote tomorrow if ThAd flips town or we have a SK or there are actually five scum.

[TheWayItEnds]

If i had to guess right now?

PV is the SK and not the last maf.

[ThAdmiral]

Busy at the moment but will be able to get on later and post some analysis. Essentially this has come down to poe and I doubt we can lose this even if I am lynched along the way (which I suspect will happen)

[Plessiez]

It's day 4. Deadline for the day is

May 3rd, 12:58

. That means you have (expired on 2014-05-03 12:58:35).

Vote Count 4.2

ThAdmiral [1 vote] (Egg)

10 players are not voting

: {Damon_Gant, DeasVail, penguin_alien, PeregrineV, projectmatt, SiX, Snork, SnowStorm, ThAdmiral, TheWayItEnds}

With

11

players alive it takes

6

votes to lynch somebody or to go to night.

Activity

PeregrineV is V/LA until April 21st.

[DeasVail]

Ok, so here are my thoughts.

Snork, I know this is overdue, but you did great. I hope this isn't seen as ass-kissing as I'm (almost?) conftown, so please consider it genuine.

-Weak townlean on Damon for 2653. This was exactly how I felt about AP. After mastin flipping scum, I thought that AP being scum made more sense and my scumread on him became more confident throughout the day as well, so it makes sense that someone would feel similarly. The reason why I don't think it's from scum is admittedly rather weak (so this probably will be one of many things that impact my final read here), but I would feel pretty uncomfortable as scum trying to make it sound as if I was legitimately scumreading AP. Note Yates' contrasting reaction and also the speed with which Damon voted for AP.

This may be covered later, but is 2694 from Yates hinting at a doctor role? If so, I would be reasonably confident saying that all innocents are accurate with SiX's role intended as the possible false positive, but I'm not currently sure where I stand on the SK argument.

Skimmed quickly, but catching up for real now. Will say that Yates has found a secure place in my town reads now though. Was it worth the wait, Yates?

I would like to hear an explanation for the above.

This...is not how gunsmith works in normals as far as I know. I hate to give up my pretty Snork town read, but really. Go wiki a role before you fake claim it.

Hmmm?

I dunno, the odds of a new player thinking to claim two-shot JOAT as SK in a game where Rach is also a confirmed two-shot JOAT who had yet to claim when Six did are pretty low in my opinion. I'm kinda thinking Six pretty much has to be telling the truth here.

My thoughts are along these lines, as well as how nicely Aptil's claim matches up with SiX's. (I thought they were both town since their claims despite my posts indicating otherwise, but now that Rach is dead and there is opposition to SiX-town there's no real reason to hide that anymore). Obviously there's still the possibility that scum actually know SiX is SK, but as someone who has been much more convincingly framed as SK it's not something I'm all that concerned about right now!

Snork, AP is the lynch for today, obv. If he flips Mafia, I'll buy that you either don't understand your role or the mod's derping liek woah.

What's with the pretending AP hasn't claimed mafia?

I'm not sure why ThAd is getting suspicion after Yates' push on him. Even though ThAd wasn't a solid townread by town, as his mafia buddy I would be quite hopeful that he'd be able to last the distance and probably wouldn't try to get pressure on him after losing two buddies one after the other. Unless Yates predicted his own modkill somehow???

My thoughts at the moment...

Not for lynching:

Snork
TWIE
Egg
SiX

Probably not lynching:

Penguin_alien- Concerned about what I've quoted earlier in this post. Would like answers to these to improve my read.
Projectmatt- As possible scum are dwindling, my weak townread on him becomes an issue. Still can't justify a strong townread, but would still prefer to hold off lynching this slot.
PeregrineV- Again, despite a townread, he's someone I need to look at more closely. Again, probably would not lynch.

Maybe?

SnowStorm- Others see him as town and he's someone I definitely need to look at more.
Damon_Gant- Despite some vaguely town things I'll need to find more if he's to move up my lists.
ThAdmiral- Would probably be my favoured choice if not for Yates' push on him. Might still be my favourite option. We shall see!

I also have no idea where the N2 kill comes from and don't really care right now, but I will later, don't you worry.

So, I obviously have to sort out my reads properly and will go through ISOs and whatnot and share my thoughts. I'll start this tonight and may even get a post up, but I'll most likely finish it over a couple of days.

[ThAdmiral]

basically conf town:
Snork
TheWayItEnds

probably town vig:
SiX

remainder:
Damon_Gant
DeasVail
penguin_alien
PeregrineV
projectmatt
SnowStorm
Egg

Of these:
egg, penguin_alien, peregrineV were on the mastin wagon. Egg gets bonus points for being on early and trying to push it through as opposed to jumping on late. Pv's vote was interesting as he didn't wait for mastin to claim. Not sure whether that is more likely from town or scum.
snowstorm is likely not aligned with mafia as ap and mastin were voting him and pushing pretty hard day 2.

Will look in to damon, deas, and projectmatt, and also check out peregrine.

[Egg]

Unvote, Vote Pere

[penguin_alien]

On tablet, being lazy for holiday, but short answers to DV's questions are that I thought the way Yates came in after the scum lynch was a towny attitude and so was enough to push him over in my mind, gunsmith normally gets gun results on cops and other such gun-toting types, and as for AP having claimed Mafia I don't trust what claimed scum says even if it seems straightforward.

[Damon_Gant]

After a further reread of scum ISOs I have a slightly changed position. I think I can build the most coherent case on Peregrine rather than ThAd based on interactions. I'm busy today and tomorrow, but for now the basic premise of the case is that there are strong similarities between the ways that the known scum treated each other and how they treated Peregrine.

AP - gives constant non-commital reads on Peregrine, exactly like he does with mastin.
mastin - Peregrine is stated as a moderate town read several times, with a similar treatment given to AP and Yates. mastin is known for being anti-bussing so this is unsurprising.
Yates - Has lots of discussions with Peregrine with little accusation - exactly as with AP.

There are other specific posts that I could easily interpret as scumbuddies interacting as well and I will get to these later.

[SnowStorm]

I need to re-read some stuff, but the players who currently worry me the most are ThAd, Peregrine and Damon, to a lesser extent. I'm not as sold on scum-ThAd as I was before, but I think he'd also make sense as an SK. Peregrine is mostly PoE, he was in the null pile, which has mostly sorted itself out with mastin and Yates flipping scum and Way being cleared by Snork, so I need to check him. Egg was on the null pile too iirc, but I'm not as worried about him. Damon, I still find him very scummy, but I'm not sure if he'd fit as a partner to the flipped scum or as an SK, so I really need to check him.

[DeasVail]

basically conf town:
Snork
TheWayItEnds

probably town vig:
SiX

remainder:
DeasVail

Ok

[TheWayItEnds]

Vote: PereV

[Snork]

I'm fine with lynching PV.

VOTE: PeregrineV

[DeasVail]

I feel more conflicted on PV now that I've gone through his ISO. Still need to work out my read on other people but I'll elaborate once I've decided where he stands in my reads.

[SiX]

VOTE:

Elaborate why not in case you want my vote gone.

[PeregrineV]

After a further reread of scum ISOs I have a slightly changed position. I think I can build the most coherent case on Peregrine rather than ThAd based on interactions. I'm busy today and tomorrow, but for now the basic premise of the case is that there are strong similarities between the ways that the known scum treated each other and how they treated Peregrine.

AP - gives constant non-commital reads on Peregrine, exactly like he does with mastin.
mastin - Peregrine is stated as a moderate town read several times, with a similar treatment given to AP and Yates. mastin is known for being anti-bussing so this is unsurprising.
Yates - Has lots of discussions with Peregrine with little accusation - exactly as with AP.

There are other specific posts that I could easily interpret as scumbuddies interacting as well and I will get to these later.

You have 12 days, so you could actually do this with all living players.

[projectmatt]

I'm actually gonna try to get through all the living players in this game so I can understand who to vote, starting tomorrow. For real!

[Damon_Gant]

You have 12 days, so you could actually do this with all living players.

I didn't just pick your name out of a hat. I have looked at this with every player - that is how I ended up with a shortlist of yourself and ThAd, both of you who I previously believed to be town. I will openly post my interaction analysis on each player in the coming days to show why I came to this conclusion though.

[PeregrineV]

You have 12 days, so you could actually do this with all living players.

I didn't just pick your name out of a hat. I have looked at this with every player - that is how I ended up with a shortlist of yourself and ThAd, both of you who I previously believed to be town. I will openly post my interaction analysis on each player in the coming days to show why I came to this conclusion though.

You should. It would help us all.

But, you should also know that Mastin will bus exactly one of his teammates.

[Damon_Gant]

But, you should also know that Mastin will bus exactly one of his teammates.

This is something I've thought about, but in this case I'm not seeing the bus. I've moved on from thinking SnowStorm is scum, and this is all I could think on this front. If there was a 5th scum then perhaps someone like SnowStorm fits in. Mastin was not on top form this game though and was quite flippy on her reads, so I definitely think that Yates and especially AP's interactions are more interesting

[PeregrineV]

But, you should also know that Mastin will bus exactly one of his teammates.

This is something I've thought about, but in this case I'm not seeing the bus. I've moved on from thinking SnowStorm is scum, and this is all I could think on this front. If there was a 5th scum then perhaps someone like SnowStorm fits in. Mastin was not on top form this game though and was quite flippy on her reads, so I definitely think that Yates and especially AP's interactions are more interesting

Well, it's there. It was pointed out a while back about he doesn't bus. Next few Mastin scum-games, sure enough, a single bussed scum.

[Damon_Gant]

Well, it's there. It was pointed out a while back about he doesn't bus. Next few Mastin scum-games, sure enough, a single bussed scum.

So who is it this game then?