NY 172: Another Large Normal (GAME OVER)

[Plessiez]

It's day 4. Deadline for the day is

May 3rd, 12:58

. That means you have (expired on 2014-05-03 12:58:35).

Vote Count 4.4

PeregrineV [4 votes] (Egg, TheWayItEnds, Snork, SiX)

7 players are not voting

: {Damon_Gant, DeasVail, fferyllt, penguin_alien, PeregrineV, SnowStorm, ThAdmiral}

With

11

players alive it takes

6

votes to lynch somebody or to go to night.

[fferyllt]

hi guys!

I'm going to start by reading some ISOs, but please feel free to point out stuff you think I should focus on right away.

[fferyllt]

Anyone want to catch me up on what the current thoughts are on balance and factions?

[fferyllt]

First runthrough is a triple ISO of AP, Mastin and Yates. I was especially looking for their reads lists to see what they said about each other and how that compared to their comments about other players, hoping to get some probable townies from it as well as a potential scumbuddy.

Long and not pretty. Read at your own risk.

Spoiler: a few things that jumped out of the ISOs

Im caught up.

I have moderate town reads on: Gant, Anxiety, Rogers, peregrine, DV and bjc.
I like mastin's presence in the game so far but need to talk to her more (tentative townread).

Talah, Chemist, and more recently Zdenek, look bad. Zdenek keeps toying with the Talah vote but hopped onto me for agreeing with PV about him which is pretty sketch. Voting me and simultaneously backpedaling on the inherent seriousness of his reads that I brought up makes me pretty willing to lynch that Today

Admiral is a weaker read, for no real reason other than he feels lackluster.

P-edit: I thought you called him obvtown? I need to read that sequence again, there was way to much towncred being thrown at him from too many people.
Do you believe them or not? You clearly at least partially believe those points since you are bothering to argue them with PV.
P-p-edit: Ok. Like The Doc holiday suspicion in particular bugged me. Saying he needs to vote someone later is scum motivated because? Hes panic-bussing bjc? He wants to see who is willing to ML bjc before hopping on? I mean, it -could- be from scum, but I dont see why town couldnt make that post.

Mastin was probably his townread-scum. Yates isn't mentioned. The comment on ThAd is the sort of thing I catch myself posting about a buddy as scum. :/ Dunno if AP would do something like that. He's a more assertive scum player than I am. Still, something to think about.

Checked Luca's meta - Luca pretty much doesn't have a meta, with as far as I could see, only 1 finished game to speak of. None of Luca's posts from that one game read as scummy as the one post Luca has here. I reiterate - I'm happy with my vote.

What on earth. How are you going to apply a metaread to somebody who has posted a grand total of 3 sentences, one of which was a proddodge?

I feel like he was talking to town here.

557 makes me think pisskop could be town.

AP, since you're here...

Blue below are additions I've made just now.

The only thing that really bugs me about Luca is the fact that my scum reads are advocating it as an acceptable lynch.

My top town reads right now are you

[Snow]

, MR, AP, Pisskop, Zd and mastin. Second tier would be Yates, DV, 4nx and pmatt.

Adding a third tier of null, maybe town, here: DG, Luca

Top scum reads are Talah, Thad, aptil,

DG,

Nero,

Rach.

Nulls are

nero (for now - his ISO is on my list), Luca,

and PV (who I was originally scum reading, but not sure if correct yet based on other posts).

Where would you disagree?

Actually, I'd like

MR,

penguin_alien

, mastin, PK, AP, and Zd to collab with me on these as well.

Ok, is there something you wanted to talk about specifically?

As far as reads go I'm somewhere around:

Town core: Penguin, Snork, PV
Probably town: Nero, Yates, DG, anxiety, snowstorm, Luca

I liked DV, but some of his recent opinions are less than sensible so Im bumping him into "not willing to lynch Today, someone should probably investigate this"-ville.
Zdenek I really don't know what to make of this game. I sort of like his reads, but not quite comfortable calling him town.

RM, matt, mastin are great targets for investigative PRs right now.

Scummy: Talah, Admiral, aptil, pisskop, Bipolar

Peregrine is this true? Are you town core?

And Mastin is now "investigate this" while Yates is probably town. If there's a teammate maybe in the scumpile? the comments on zdenek and DV have that "not calling my scumbuddy town or scum" feel that I have trouble avoiding. :/

- Talk to me about Pisskop. Why are you scumreading him?

My scumreads are Yates, DG, Anxiety. Ive got room for mild reads on AP, Luca, RM, and increasingly talah.

All of his main scumreads are on probable townies. His back up scumread on me has no development, Luca/RM are easy reads, and his "increasingly Talah" read sounds an awful lot like "Oh shit, Talah's getting lynched. Better get some towncred for it" and it doesnt really make sense with his other stated reads.

Another top detective, deducing that voting for a scumread is scummy.

This just feels fake and like scum caught for the wrong reasons.

Im pretty sure at one person everybody (else) considers town is a scummy scummy man.

This is such a weak opinion. It looks like doing something for the sake of looking busy.

He was apparently scumreading Rogers, then later unvotes and drops some awkward tidbit about not having meta on anyone. Annnnnd its gone! His scumread on Rogers is just gone after that.

And I dislike that hes trying to mislynch Yates for ~reasons~.

And this case on pisskop also makes me think pisskop is town.

Mastin I do understand that you are having issues with reading all the pages, with the consideration of time limit to deadline, maybe just focus on stuff regarding the two main wagons? That should at least give you some reads and something to discuss.

Assessment: they both suck. We need another option.

Your alignment is irrelevant to this. Your short-sightedness is that you fail to see how people might prefer a Luca lynch to a talah lynch. Also, talah, if you're town, get that vote off yourself. If you don't want to play anymore, then vote Luca, see how the day pans out and then replace out tomorrow if that's still the case. Don't screw the game up.
As I've said before, I will do what's necessary to avoid a no lynch, and that includes moving my vote to talah. However, for now I see no need to do this and instead would call on those who are not on talah or Luca to choose between these, because we're not lynching anyone else today. A vote elsewhere is a vote for no lynch, which is a horrible outcome for town.

Damon's scum, talah/Luca's alignments regardless. Luca's definitely not scum. talah

could

be, but this doesn't come from a town player.

/65.

I also think his self-voting is purely manipulative, especially in light of wanting the town to get information from the lynches.

Self-voting manipulative, sure, but that's the TOWN manipulation. If talah had a major-near-100% town/scumread (or better yet, both), he'd have pulled off a classic Mastin gambit. He could be scum manipulating, but I sincerely doubt that.

meh

vote: Talah

more than willing to switch to Luca if it makes it further

Yep. This? This is scum.

Talah and Luca are both town. Damon and anxiety are both scum.

I know it's an unpopular position on this site but I'd literally rather no-lynch than lynch someone I think is town.

fuck it I'd rather talah stay around than luca

vote: luca

Lucy. You've got some 'splainin' to do.

Another post that gives me ThAd scumbuddy vibes.

1804 makes BPC look town.

Town: Nero, Peregrine, Anxiety, aptil (pretty town for vig claim)
Probably town, want to talk to them more: Yates, mastin
Town? Possibly stale reads, could be (probably is?) a scum here: Snork, PA, Snowstorm, Damon Gant
Meh: Pmatt, RM
Scummy: TheWayItEnds, Bipolar, ThAdmiral, DV

this reads list almost makes me think that the mafia team is defunct. ThAd in the scumpile looks like team disagreement on the slot, so maybe he's town?

@Snork

- I love post 1790 right up until the NKA. I see others have addressed this but yeah - NKA is p-much a wifom bomb.

I'm surprised to see Chemist in the Town list. Can you explain? Other than that, I like your Town list. [oh - bc of his return post? meh]

Also, pisskop slot [TheWayItEnds] is scum. I'm putting matt in the scum pile too.

I might come around on ThAd scum but I want him to be Town. I still have him in my "to be sorted" pile with mastin, Pere and Nero.

SnowStorm is playing a good game. I have him leaning Town but my confidence is shaky. When I start thinking I may be wrong, he responds with a strong post or good logic when pressed. I haven't played with him enough to know what this means but I don't remember him being this - logical? focused? organized? - in Rocky Horror.

I think PA is going to help me read the Rogers slot so I'm not voting there.

how likely do ya all think it is that we have one large scum team or two scum teams and how likely do you think it is we have a SK?

I wouldn't rule out a limited shot SK or some kind of odd-night vs even-night scum team. But I'm inclined to believe Aptil. While I don't do NKA I also don't think scum would waste a shot on a potential easy mislynch. [then again - what an awesome play for an SK to earn an obv-Town read!] I'm playing as if we have one scum team because I don't think it matters.

I'm going to:
VOTE: TheWayItEnds

Looking forward to seeing death or contribution from this slot.

And this post also suggests maybe different stances on Town-ThAd.

1821 and surrounding posts suggest the run on Snork was scum going after a townie.

Also town reading ThAd and 4nxi3ty for seeing what I did yesterday. Mild town read on mastin2 for not trying to blend into a wagon.

Really? Can you explain the Thad and Anxiety reads?

And this feels like a realllly weak reason to be townreading mastin. I could easily see mastin hard defending 2 town lynches as scum, why can't you?

More evidence against ThAd scum I think. This is one of the few posts where he mentions mastin in day 2 so far, and it's all been "town read but I need to see more from him" and "I could get paranoid about him". He's not calling her wrong on the mastin read. It's a subtle discredit.

Ya, but he was calling RM town for that reason before Thad got involved at all. I can understand thinking that a scummy player making a scummy push on an easy target makes them more town, but "Bad case on someone --> they are town" baffles me.

But I have less than zero interest in arguing Nero's townread on RM with him right now since I ultimately think both are town.

I've been sort of all over the place Today, so lets monologue about people in the spirit of regrouping:

penguin_alien - I dislike her posts about mastin. She seems somewhat undecided on mastin and shows no real interest in talking to her to resolve that. I'd expect her to be interested in mastin swooping in to add to her snowstorm wagon since she is apparently loosely suspicious of mastin when questioned about her. Reads more like posturing than actually trying to determine mastin's alignment, meh. Still Rogers posts feel unlikely to be from scum? Meh.

Snork - Town. Already largely discussed.

TheWayItEnds - I liked the original posts with Nero, felt like he wasn't nervous. Later contributions have fallen off and his RM votepark is pretty lame and easy. Sketchiest vote on the RM wagon just to take it off, post some bullshit about Yates who voted him, and go back to lurking? Scummy.

Egg - Egg has done fuck-all so far, but replaced BipolarChemist so Scummy.

Nero Cain - Pretty sure he's town. Reads like HPATPL/GoW Nero, aggressive, pointed.

aptil - Gets a pass for Vig claim. Is town barring reason to suspect SK/multiball.

Yates - I like his TWIE vote and that TWIE isn't gaining any traction makes TWIE less likely to be town tbh. Mindset and frustration reads town to me. His follow up on PA looks town-motivated. Town.

projectmatt - Who? Mostly a non-presence. Not doing anything that looks like scum hunting. Throws some townreads around and lurks. Meh leaning toward hm.

PeregrineV - Has basically done nothing Today. Still think hes probtown from Yestreday's posts, would like to see him step it up though.

mastin2 - Lurking is generally not a mastin thing regardless of anything and this is getting a little ridiculous, I realize RL sucks, but I could reallllly use you to bounce reads off of if you are town in this game. 2004/5 feels like town stream of thought, but mastin can fake that sort of thing as scum so meh. Meh. Probably not scum if PA is.

SnowStorm - Shows up to respond to case on him and not much else recently. Writes off my pressure as bullshit and justifies to Anxiety that its easier to detect bullshit about him than other place. Defense is scummy and general lack of proactive play; very reactionary. Scummy.

Damon_Gant - Actually back to leaning town here on an ISO skim. Dont at all get what mastin is seeing here and she should back that up.

4nxi3ty - Suspicion on Snowstorm is town as fuck, since that is something townies tend to be paranoid about. Could be dropping fake tells as scum, but strongly doubt it. Reaction to pressure has felt genuine.

RachMarie - Lol.

ThAdmiral - Meh?

DeasVail - I'd lynch it.

Ok, so it looks like he was setting PA up for scumbuddy with Mastin.

The ThAdmiral and DV are the ones that stand out as possible buddies. Also Matt but I can rule that one out

K. Are we seriously back to 5 days left until deadline?

Nero, RM, Yates, Anxiety, PV, Snork, [aptil-slot], thadmiral are all pretty town.

Townblock, start suggesting good lynches and why.

I want TWIE, Matt, or Snow right now the most. Could maybe do mastin (not really a scumread, but decent compromise at this point), Egg (replaced Bipolar, doesnt feel like town-egg really).

I think I'd rather not lynch DV today actually. Someone throw something out.

Ok, so ThAd has rehabilitated at this point and he's searching for an alternative to Mastin. Hmm. Not sure what to think about this but I'm getting ThAd-scum vibes again.

Talk to me about my reads.

Alright.

Mister Rogers/PA
Snork
AngryPidgeon
BipolarChemist/Egg
Yates
PeregrineV

PA's null to me overall right now.
Snork's posting looks town, but feels like it has to be an alt. It feels like this level of drive and familiarity could only come from an insider. So if Snork really weren't an alt, I'd actually feel like scum if that makes sense.
AP's a concern, since he's not feeling the townvibes.
I liked BipolarChemist's posting and Egg's has continued the trend.
Yates is null, as is PV. Don't really remember anything from either of them.

With a lynch list of {Snork/PA/Yates/AP/PV/Thad}, basically the only one I wouldn't want lynched is ThAd, whose posting does look town to me.

This is from a quotestripe wall and part of a hurried catchup. The ThAd comment is interesting. She's nullpiling/concern-reading other known scum.

Yates, where are you? Talk to me about your thoughts on current events please. I don't think mastin is a good lynch today. Where do you stand on Thad?

@Matt: I may go summarize that in a bit, but Ive talked about Snow quite a bit Today.

That first paragraph is pretty cool!

I also really liked the comment about "the 2 off the wagons because RachMarie said so". When the wagons were almost ENTIRELY split in half the playerlist, AND were both on town, you cannot use that kind of dumb logic to scumhunt... by some kind of arbitrary fucking formula.

I meant it when I said RM is blacklisted. I hope someone fucking shoots her. I want her out of this game regardless of her alignment. She's a fucking liability.

VOTE: Snork.

This is not town ranting.

Wondering about a Snork-PA-TWIE-4nxi3ty scumteam.

I'm tempted to say there's no scum at all in the proposed scumteam.

So after those posts the triple ISO got pretty funny and I'm not sure what I think about all the crazy claim counterclaim stuff on the 3rd page of the triple ISOs.

And holy shit I'm awake past 5 am working on this.

This helped me identify some other isos and some contextual areas to focus on, but probably not until I get some sleep.

[penguin_alien]

Hey, so game-wise we have an unaccounted for kill. SiX's predecessor claimed the talah NK as a one-shot vig, so that one is at least claimed. Night two is unclear; both kills were on targets I thought were pretty towny. I'd suggest reading SiX's posts to form your own impression of what happened based on follow-up to the claim.

Re: your ISOing, bottom line is I think ThAd was being set up. Especially if it's four mafia, one SK, because for Yates to be pushing him that hard when buddy two of four was nailed to the wall by an investigative result seems unlikely given how much town cred Yates had. Could be five Mafia full stop with something weird to account for the extra kill. There are set-up spec points in favor of both.

You mentioned Zdenek in your breakdown; he died and flipped town N1.

I'd be interested in your take on Snork.

My own triple-ISO based thoughts will be incoming in a couple hours.

[DeasVail]

FFery, not sure if you've seen this but Snork has claimed gunsmith with 'no gun' results on me N1 and TWIE N3, and a positive result on AP night 2.

[SiX]

Fatal Error, maximum words exceeded.

Spoiler:

Nice flash wagon there!

Sorta busy, but quick thoughts. Still dont like DV, especially after the mastin flip.

2 kills last night surprises me and I think that means Six is probably just scum?

Ok. So. Six is accusing me of being a Serial Killer.

He is accusing me of not shooting last night (despite there being two kills?)...and framing him for a kill that I apparently didn't make and that his slot claimed on N1.

He is a claimed JOAT now but didnt use his bodyguard action on cofnirmed town RM or anyone else last night.

Sometimes, it really is this easy.

VOTE: 6

Guys 6 is the Serial Killer. Guess I can tell ya'll that much.

This is why Gunsmith needs to be more standardized for normals.

But 6 is confirmed SK, trust me on this one.

Lmao AP. So desperate.

No, Im just benefiting my team by getting the SK outted on my way down.

I guess everyone will have to accept that I dont want to spill more than I have to, but ya hes guilty and probably BP.

I'm claiming mafia. I'm claiming that my team knows you are sk

Uhhhh, most SKs are BP? Like 90%? Any SK I can recall being in a game with.

Mini 1408 - BP sk. (orcinus)
NY 165 - bP sk. (js)
House Party (my game) - bp sk. (surye)
gay mafia 2 - bp sk (dgb).
hpatpl mafia- semi-bp SK (tammy)

I cant actually recall running into a NON bp sk ever.

P-edit: My deal is that Im claiming a guilty on a non-town entity whose lynch benefits town becuase they have been shooting townies lol. t

echnically 6 is a better lynch than me today since that removes one of the anti-town kills altogether, but I realize no one likes me

6 really actually is confirmed SK though , >.>

W/e, feel free to lynch him after however many day phases it takes ya'll to stop being derpy

.

The mafias obviously wishes for there to be a SK in this game and what they want is to make the town believe it's me.

mastin2 [9 votes] (Yates, Nero Cain, Egg, 4nxi3ty, Snork, RachMarie, TheWayItEnds, penguin_alien, PeregrineV) [LYNCH]

If you check, Yates was the first one on the bandwagon. Everyone sort of expected him to be town larer (check PA) but unforeseeingly Yates got modkilled and flipped mafia. PA himseld was also rather late in voting Mastin2 for the lynch.

AngryPidgeon [8 votes] (SiX, Damon_Gant, Egg, ThAdmiral, SnowStorm, Snork, Yates, PeregrineV) [LYNCH]

Here you didn't vote at all, PA.

Skimmed quickly, but catching up for real now.

Will say that Yates has found a secure place in my town reads now though. Was it worth the wait, Yates?

But, you could always make yourself obvtown instead.

You don't think I'm obvtown already? I'm hurt, really.

Remaining players who aren't of known alignment:

Snork--likely town, enough weirdness that I'll have doubts but we'll see what shakes out

Yates--town read

Damon_Gant--town read
Egg--town read, don't remember why, but town

Likely two Mafia scum and one SK scum in:
TheWayItEnds--unlikely scum, but not getting a clear town vibe
projectmatt--possibly scum, although not with AP?
PeregrineV--I lean not-scum, but I'd like to see more from him. Plus I like to

drag him to LyLo

sort him late game.
SnowStorm--still kind of like him for scum
ThAdmiral, DeasVail--not likely both scum, as that would mean AP put them both on his list as afterthoughts.

SiX--very suspect at this point, especially after AP claimed JOAT too when he was put under suspicion initially

So I suspect SiX is an SK who is suffering from some whiplash in between aptil's plans and his. Mafia-wise, if we do have a four-man team, I think it's {SnowStorm, ThAd/DV} but I don't have good reasons for the last slot.

Promised delving into ThAd:

Hm, not seeing ThAd-SnowStorm as a team here actually. ThAd begs off the mastin wagon because it's meta-based, which, um. Meta for me, yeah, but a hell of a lot of people just didn't like that she wasn't posting here. Which isn't meta.

I'm also not sure about his interactions with Nero Cain. I favor the NC kill being from the presumed SK-SiX, but we'll know more about that once AP flips and we figure out how much stock to put in his last-ditch message to his team. In which case the disconnect between ThAd fighting with NC all day and then NKing him is non-existent.

Most of yesterday stemmed from the RachMarie FN to NC business, which I'm not sure how much to read into that.

Bottom line, ThAd is a pile of 'not sure' from me, and I don't have a reason to town read him, but I don't recall a persuasive case.

Did you miss the part where I'm not 100% sold on you being what you claim? And if he's a Mafia Doctor, for example, he could be scum without a gun. Although under your odd version of a gunsmith, that might be out the window.

Well, doesn't matter for now.

AP's today's lynch, and SiX is likely the next day's lynch, and whoever's alive can see from there.

What's your current take on ThAd? Specifically, why did he go from weak town in 2689 to presumed scum in 2807?

I'm not sure Yates would set the stage for lynching yet another buddy in calling out ThAd. Have been on the go today, more thoughts tonight.

First order of business is to see if RM crumbed a JK target, since an SK or last of a four-man Mafia team would presumably have been foiled by a roleblock.

Sure, but if it was a four-man Mafia team, how much sense does it make for him to push his last buddy like that? Admittedly he was in good position, but I don't think he was in such good position that he could count on getting to 3p LyLo and winning. Especially assuming there's an SK in play, someone generally being town read like Yates would have been at risk of eating the SK NK.

Also worth considering is that we've had three goons flip.

A four man team against an SK and a town JOAT and a gunsmith so far with no more than one PR seems weak. Outside chance a Mafia doc who'd be immune to the gunsmith and be able to protect his team from the SK would be enough.

Is it possible we have five Mafia and there's a non-SK explanation for the double kill N2?

I'm spitballing here, but something seems wonky.

So the thing is, Yates was the one who suggested mastin slipped WRT the four-man Mafia team in 2684. We can wander down the WIFOM path all we'd like about how sincere it was, but bottom line is I think we need to consider the information tainted and consider the options. Since no one's taken responsibility for the second kill N2, we have to assume it was from some flavor of scum. I have played in games with scum vigs before, but it seems supremely unlikely such would hold a shot until N2 if given a choice in the matter.

Easy answer is still SK.

On tablet, being lazy for holiday, but short answers to DV's questions are that I thought the way Yates came in after the scum lynch was a towny attitude and so was enough to push him over in my mind, gunsmith normally gets gun results on cops and other such gun-toting types,

and as for AP having claimed Mafia I don't trust what claimed scum says even if it seems straightforward

.

You don't trust him, still you trust him calling me SK and pushes for the existence of a SK?


The idea of a Mafia doc as scum's only power is that it puts a lot of eggs in one basket assuming a 4-man scum team.

Speaking of eggs, Egg, talk to me about ThAd. I skimmed your ISO with my trusty Ctrl + F, and every mention of ThAd from you doesn't come with reasons why you think he's scum, just that you're willing to lynch him to various degrees.

Hey, so game-wise we have an unaccounted for kill. SiX's predecessor claimed the talah NK as a one-shot vig, so that one is at least claimed. Night two is unclear; both kills were on targets I thought were pretty towny.

I'd suggest reading SiX's posts to form your own impression of what happened based on follow-up to the claim.

Re: your ISOing, bottom line is I think ThAd was being set up.

Especially if it's four mafia, one SK, because for Yates to be pushing him that hard when buddy two of four was nailed to the wall by an investigative result seems unlikely given how much town cred Yates had. Could be five Mafia full stop with something weird to account for the extra kill. There are set-up spec points in favor of both.

You mentioned Zdenek in your breakdown; he died and flipped town N1.

I'd be interested in your take on Snork.

My own triple-ISO based thoughts will be incoming in a couple hours.

I can't believe you're still sticking with the existence of me being the SK, after everything AP has been bullshitting about. I mean, c'mon? Only a fool believes a scum.

VOTE:

[SiX]

At the second last quote, I noticed I put my own sentence into the quote.
"You don't trust him, still you trust him calling me SK and pushes for the existence of a SK?"

[penguin_alien]

:rolls eyes: I wanted fferyllt's unbiased take on your slot, but OK. Also, I'm female; please use the right pronouns.

With a guilty result on AP, he was the lynch. It mattered not a whit if I voted him or not. As far as mastin, look at what I and others actually said during the day. And hey, with fferyllt here, that's one more person who can testify to my complete inability to bus.

Tell you what, do you or do you not think there's an SK? Let's start there.

There's an unaccounted for kill N2. We either have an unclaimed vig shot, which is dumb as hell, a mafia with a vig shot, or an SK. Could be you, could be someone else.

[SiX]

Penguin, you're always going forth with "We have a scumteam of 4 and a SK" - Unless you're scum knowing the numbers of the mafia team (since 20 players would usually be 5, as 13 makes 3.) You're the Serial killer

herself

.

[penguin_alien]

For fuck's sake. WE HAVE AN UNCLAIMED KILL FROM NIGHT TWO. This points to more than just a mafia in play. What the everloving fuck do you want?

Off to do the promised reading.

[SiX]

For fuck's sake. WE HAVE AN UNCLAIMED KILL FROM NIGHT TWO. This points to more than just a mafia in play. What the everloving fuck do you want?

Off to do the promised reading.

Why are you so simple minded to only consider one posibility? 4 mafias with 1 sk? I'm NOT the SK and that's why I consider the majority of your statements invalid.
A hidden vig shooting R2 without claiming even now at R4 would just be retarded, so that one is definently out of the question.

A SK has nothing to lose to non-shot R1, hence the double shot from Mafia + JOAT. R2 came with an odd secondary shot

(Anyone claiming 1-shot vig as SK, would obviously not double kill the following round)

- Hence the setup on making me look SK through sending in a stored shot. R3 was back to only 1 kill - How can you even consider the possibility of RM roleblocking me? Are you out of your mind? I have / had my bodyguard protection and she wouldn't risk jailkeeping me when I would eventually use it on Snork to prevent his eventual death.

But have you even considered a

Strongman or anything like that

in the Mafia team?
No you haven't, you're so stubborn that it bugs me.

[Snork]

Well then. Fferyllt has just solidified my pmatt read. Thank you.

That entire bit of analysis of the 3 ISOs is town as fuck.

Fferyllt:

Some data:

I claimed town gunsmith, these are my results thus far:
N1: DeasVail does not have a gun.
N2: AngryPidgeon has a gun.
N3: pisskop/TheWayItEnds does not have a gun.

Other claims:
Aptil/SiX - JOAT with 1-shot vig and 1-shot bodyguard. Claimed to have used his 1-shot vig on Talah N1.
RM - JOAT with 1-shot jailkeeper and 1-shot friendly neighbor. Confirmed to Nero Cain N1. Did not use JK N2 (afaik). Likely used JK last night.

Wagons/discussion/night kills:

D1 two main wagons were on Talah and Luca Blight. Luca was lynched, flipped town.

N1, talah died (shot by aptil/SiX), flipped town; Zdenek shot, town.

D2: I pushed RM, ThAd followed, scum gave him shit for it. Nero defended due to friendly neighbor mod confirm. Egg noticed RM's JOAT crumb. SiX full-claimed from vig to JOAT. Major wagon on SnowStorm, and some scattering elsewhere. Day ended with what appeared to be a flashwagon on mastin, flipped mafia goon.

N2: 4nxiety shot, town. Nero Cain shot, town. <<< second nightkill unexplained!

D3: I claimed guilty on AP, we quicklynched him after he spouted a bunch of BS about the scum team KNOWING SiX is the SK. PA was also pushed as a possible partner, along with PV.

N3: Yates, mafia goon, modkilled for posting a picture of his thumb that also included his computer screen showing the mafia secret QT in another tab. RM shot, town. No second kill. (Likely jailed SiX, imo).

So, 3 mafia goons, and at least 2 confirmed town power roles. It is unlikely scum do not have a role blocker of some sort.

Given that, another explanation for N3's lack of a second kill could be scum tried to RB SiX and shoot him in hopes the roleblock would nullify his bulletproof and it didn't work. If SiX is telling the truth, N2's second kill is baffling.

Today, TWIE yelled at me for investigating him instead of PA or PV, and we're lynching PV.

Clearly I had doubts about PA or I would have investigated there. I'm likely dead tonight.

Haven't read posts after your analysis as I only had 10 minutes on break to read it and formulate my response. Hope this helps; would like to discuss things with you later when I finish work.

[Snork]

Penguin, you're always going forth with "We have a scumteam of 4 and a SK" - Unless you're scum knowing the numbers of the mafia team (since 20 players would usually be 5, as 13 makes 3.) You're the Serial killer

herself

.

This is dumb considering we've discussed where the numbers are coming from.

[SiX]

So what you're saying is that:

- Aptil (SK) after intentionally having killed a Town player would go out saying "Hey, I used my 1-shot vig ability to kill a villager. Now I'm conftown, Hurra!"

Note: Madness doing that as one of the first posts R2.

- Six (Aptil's replacer) would full claim JOAT even though not suspected (Claiming JOAT with bodyguard, gave the villager PRs' a little more confidence to go out claiming, with my bodyguarding as support for at least 1 round)

Note: First to publicly claim JOAT, had exact 2 abilities just as RM, have never heard of a JOAT before.

- Six (SK) would double kill the following round aswell after having claimed only having 1 bullet.

Note: Madness.

- Scum pushes Six for being SK

Note: Proves how much I'm not the SK.

- Six all of sudden stops shooting.
#1 If I would have been retarded enough to shoot R2, I'd have continued to shoot R3.
#2 Why would RM roleblock me? I claimed JOAT (Having exact 2 abilities just like her), I pushed for scum) +

I have / had my bodyguard protection and she wouldn't risk jailkeeping me when I would eventually use it on Snork to prevent his eventual death.

Seriously, wtf? I'm getting a braindamage from the logic used against me here.

[penguin_alien]

But have you even considered a

Strongman or anything like that

in the Mafia team?
No you haven't, you're so stubborn that it bugs me.

A strongman penetrates interference with the NK. It doesn't give its faction an extra kill.

I also tend to think you're overestimating any belief RM had that you were town, but we don't know because there wasn't time for her to indicate if she'd use her JK and on whom. Not to mention that the mid-night kill might have changed things for her.

What is interesting is that you were the first to claim 2-powered JOAT. The odds of claiming a two-powered JOAT, which is relatively uncommon in comparison to a three-four powered JOAT is low.

OK, ideally here we lynch Mafia and you eat the NK via bodyguarding properly anyways. Back to Mafia analysis.

[fferyllt]

FFery, not sure if you've seen this but Snork has claimed gunsmith with 'no gun' results on me N1 and TWIE N3, and a positive result on AP night 2.

I saw there was a gunsmith guilty on AP in the iso, but didn't stop to figure out who the gunsmith was.

[Snork]

I'm getting a braindamage from the logic used against me here.

Ok. Well you should just stop worrying about one or two of the 80 possible theories to explain the night kills that have been floating around and help figure it out.

Someone made that second kill. I can't think of a single mechanic that allows scum to get a second kill

in a normal game

. The only possible explanation that would support a single killing faction is that the mod somehow lost his mind and decided to give them a vig as well. This is retarded.

So SOMEONE NOT MAFIA shot one of those two on N2. If we were all super duper convinced you were the SK we'd be lynching you instead, and we're not.

And tbqh, if it's a town vig, they need to fucking claim like right the fuck now because we're all wasting time and brain power trying to explain it when we could be focusing on narrowing down our suspects. If we continue to have double night kills, we only have 2 mislynches left before 5p LYLO. That's it. I'm dead tonight, and then that's it. No more gun results.

We're looking for 2 fucking people, and only one of them is mafia. It's not about ignoring other possibilities, it's about selecting logical information in order to formulate working hypotheses. If you're town, help us and stop arguing about the number of scum because it's not something we know for sure and we all know that. Everyone knows that. BUT SOMEONE WHO IS NOT MAFIA MADE THAT SECOND NIGHT KILL. WHICH MEANS THERE IS ANOTHER KILLING FACTION IN THIS GAME. WHICH MEANS MAFIA CAN'T BE MORE THAN 4 UNLESS THE MOD DECIDED TO SAY FUCK YOU TO BALANCE.

Peregrine - you need to claim. Now.

I'm tired of fucking around, I really am. I'm dead tonight. Do you guys understand that? I'm dead. Stop playing this game of lies and hidden information and help your team mates. There's only one mafia left ffs!

[penguin_alien]

OK, reading through this triple ISO with a few baseline assumptions. I'm going with the straightforward answer that Snork didn't spontaneously throw AP under the bus with a fakeclaim, in large part because I am assuming there's an SK in play, which with the relatively low level of town power displayed thus far likely means a four man Mafia (and if SiX doesn't like this assumption I kindly invite him to tell me why a second kill went unclaimed Night Two). If the second kill was from town it should have been claimed. If it was from Mafia, that means they got a vig shot as in FEA Large Theme, and that would be a very unusual choice for a Normal game. Plus no SK would mean a five-man Mafia, which in turn means a five-man Mafia with an extra vig shot...eh, unlikely.

The only other thing I can think of is that we have a werewolf and Mafia faction in play and the kills are indistinguishable in flavor, which would likely be a 3:3 breakdown. That leaves us with the scum overlapping on Zdenek N1...possible but less likely. That would also make the choice of including a gunsmith pretty bizarre, and unless we had a counterbalancing Seer rather unfair. And with three Mafia dead, if someone had info that we have a Werewolf faction in play that should have been revealed so that we'd know not to rely on further gunsmith results and that we should be hunting for a completely independent faction at this point.

Also assuming that DV and TWIE are clear as per Snork's results. Assuming that Egg is clear because BipolarChemist was town as hell in his reaction to the fake dayvig. In terms of what I can expect to get out of the Mafia ISO, I'm also assuming SiX wasn't aligned with AP.

That leaves: fferyllt/projectmatt, PV, SnowStorm, Damon_Gant, ThAd, and DV. My own biases are that Damon_Gant and ThAd are extremely unlikely to be Mafia, fair warning.

In other news I like being out of rvs within 3 live posts. While its sort of forced (what super early day 1 case stuff isn't) I still like rogers better for it.

I'm scum.

Lemme guess: "reaction testing"?

vote: bjc

There you go, now you can call me scum for "taking the bait".

ThAdmiral, you are a

boss

. (Of course he is, being an admiral means being a boss of a lot of captains! But seriously, ThAd's town.)

I'm scum.

There is no legitimate purpose to this as Town. bjc is either scum or not worth listening to. Obtuse gambits are anti-Town.

Sticking with talah for now, but this deserves a vote later.

This is probably scum, too, though not certainly so.

I'm scum.

What a peculiar post. No meaning, no purpose, no humour. Everything else in this game thus far is smoke clouding my vision.

Vote: bjc

This, however, is definitely scum. You want a town voting bjc? (Or, at the least, more likely to be town.) Look at PV's. That, genuine-or-at-least-appearing-so. This, not so much.

Hi, hello.

Vote: Damon Grant.

You're going to have to excuse me for being stupid here. The only point I see zdenek making about me is "#4", which you'll forgive me if I don't find it to be spectacular analysis. Obviously I'm missing something here so can someone explain it to me? I'll pre-emptively point out that I barely read the post I was supposed to be sheeping. Honestly,

there's only so much one can say about a post that says "I'm scum", so it's unsurprising we have similar things to say about it.

And yes, I guess I did overjustify my absence which is turning out not to be so much so anyway thanks to this nifty iPad keyboard I got today. I appreciate the birthday wishes, even if they are laced with poison!

Why say anything about it even? It looks like you just picked up the easiest thing to comment and base a vote on and didn't even bother to read the posts after it. It looked like posting just for the sake of posting, as if you just wanted to blend in.

The defensive tone of this post also bothers me.

Also town.

I'm assuming that mastin was likely proceeding according to her gameplan in early game when she wasn't yet checked out, making her early posts useful. The above is trimmed for relevant reads. ThAd town read (suspect mastin wouldn't have considered ThAd an easy lynch); TWIE-slot mild scum read, likely hedging her bets; Damon_Gant: classic mastin saying someone is scum with no real substance behind the read. Just proclaiming it and moving on. It sounds good, with the comparison to another player's vote and all, but there's nothing there. SnowStorm town read is perfunctory and apparently based on SnowStorm concurring with mastin's 'scum read' on Damon_Gant. Something she'd want to support but not elaborate on.

Next post 107 has a whole argument for talah-scum yet...Damon_Gant's the vote? mastin might bus, but she wouldn't bus in favor of a supposed slam-dunk scum read.

Yates starts out pushing PV very hard.

Argh, posting this here because my computer's power cord is being incredibly unreliable. Plus this might go on a bit.

[fferyllt]

I want to read RM's reaction to the JOAT Claim

Since it looks like most claims are on the table I'll add mine so's to add another target to the mix for scum.
I can clear up the N2 4nxi3ty kill.

That was Matt. I'm an X-Shot vig.

[SiX]

Sigh. Sorry guys, I tried. I thought that I would have a free reign to dedicate a lot of time to this game but a lot of new personal stuff happened and it just didn't work out. I still stand by the fact that my reads this game (so far) have been fairly accurate, but unfortunately I can't help out this game in an essential way without being able to post at a somewhat regular basis. So replace me, sorry again! I'm gonna try not to join another mafia game until I'm sure I can do it.

P-R-O-J-E-C-T-M-A-T-T WHERE... ARE... YOU?!

[Snork]

Well ok then. We're looking for 5 scum. Which puts scumThAd theory back in play, if Yates knew he had two more partners and wasn't expecting his own death.

Ffery, stop shooting.

p-edit:

OMFG SIX. FFERYLLT REPLACED PROJECTMATT YOU DODO.

[penguin_alien]

Excellent. fferyllt, if you have shots left and any doubt's about my alignment by the end of the day phase, I invite you to shoot me tonight.

Here's RM's reaction/CC

[SiX]

Snork, didn't you understand? That was me raging at Projectmatt for his incapability to pay attention to the game. For about 20+ pages the R2 nightkill was a headline mystery and now fferyllt claims Matt all along shot Anxiety?
Seriously? The braindamage I was about to get just cracked. I'll take a shower.

[penguin_alien]

Snork, no, I think we can narrow this game down, and a vig will speed things up. It comes down to PV, SnowStorm, and ThAd for me. I doubt my opinions on record will change much, and this isn't a case where I think much useful info can be gleaned from any wagon on me.