NY 172: Another Large Normal (GAME OVER)

[Damon_Gant]

TWIE is very much town. Once mastin flipped scum that became pretty clear to me. DV is the false innocent if there is one, but I very much doubt it. If there were a gunless mafia I think that would become clear as the game progresses anyway.

[TheWayItEnds]

I could, but i assume those reads have changed now that you've done your read over.

Do you want me to still point out the reads I think are quite bad after seeing the posts you made changing your reads?

[fferyllt]

Revised Reads

Town

Mister Rogers

penguin_alien

bjc

Snork

aptil

SiX - the parallels with other roles are troubling and I'll freak out if we're both alive for much longer but here for now.
SnowStorm - based on review

Doc Holliday

pisskop

TheWayItEnds - based on review

Maybe Town

Damon_Gant - ISO including interactions looked town, but I don't feel as strongly town about him as I do the other two I moved up.
PeregrineV - effort since I've been in the game looks like town game-solving. As he points out, reads haven't been good.
DeasVail - I almost always scumread him. The scum triple iso makes me lean town. By PoE this and Pere are my weakest townreads and given the game state it means I'd consider both possibly scum.

Not So Town

ThAdmiral - like deas, I've scumread ThAd in nearlly every game we've played, but there's something about his play under pressure when he's town that always speaks to me. I'm not seeing it here.

NoEffenCllue

BipolarChemist

Egg - Still on my homework list.

[SiX]

Isn't DeasVail cleaned by Snork?

[penguin_alien]

Given that Snork keeps getting results scum likely don't have a way to interfere, which means they should have some way of not having the whole team nailed by a gunsmith via investigative immunity.

Other thoughts on what all this implies, but nothing that helps to speculate on openly.

[fferyllt]

Isn't DeasVail cleaned by Snork?

I don't want to put someone aside purely on the basis of a gunsmith inno. These are ISO based reads.

[fferyllt]

PA I hate to be a lazy ass but I need a break from ISOs. What are your current thoughts about Egg?

[penguin_alien]

PA I hate to be a lazy ass but I need a break from ISOs. What are your current thoughts about Egg?

His entry was weird as hell. It took forever to get him to explain that his 'scum reads' were based on wagon position of the Day One lynch. I don't think he'd have come in like that as scum. The reaction testing, it's dicey for scum to get results they can use in that situation. I guess he could gamble on getting one usable result, but it's such a divergence from his teammates, and at !east AP and Yates were in decent position upon his entry.

He really spurred the mastin wagon. It was a time when the urgency was believable, but not so close to deadline as to be futile. And the mastin lynch triggered the AP one. I have a hard time seeing a replacement coming in and screwing over his team like that. Only reason that changes is if scum have daytalk, and even so I think it's a very unusual line to take.

With what happened on D3, he showed flexible thinking in considering my reaction to Snork. Scum would have tried to chain my mislynch off AP's.

His reactions and thought processes feel pro-town and genuine today.

That doesn't take his predecessor into account.

[fferyllt]

BipolarChemist/Egg

BPC's early posts have a relaxed feel to them.

115 pings a bit. both the comment about Mister Rogers "seemingly", and the reply to Mastin's joke post.

Didn't like the Rach read after that and reading further I smiled to see Matt agreed.

147 also pings. fishing for reasons for the scumread.


151 I dunno. I could be already developing a nasty confirmation bias. I could read this as setting up for an eventual mastin scumflip.

lol right here is where the dayvig shot happened. I had to flip to context and finally read through it.

I dunno. I hate to give up that scumread. Will flip back through the scum ISOs later. For now, I'm resetting.

...and then he washes dishes plays a game and disappears for 2-3 days, makes 2 comments and then disappears for the rest of the week. 1000 posts later, rejoins the game.

1660 - first reads list. Has Mastin null-scum. Has Yates scum. Has AP town.

Enter Egg

2133 is a strong-looking catchup post, though I totally disagree with his MR read obv. The reaction to Deas looks town, I think. The comment about AP later in the post looks like the kinda thing scum-me would say to or about a scumbuddy. :/. The call out of Mastin's read looks good.


2286 is better. 2306 though not so much. Huge pile of players happy to vote and only 1 known scum in them. There's been no mention of Yates to this point either.

He voted ThAd. then:

2340 "wait Mastin and projectmatt" could happen? Then in next post votes...PA. Fairly big gap there, but the PA vote has trajectory via 2286 and earlier comments.

2422 Kind of explains some of that vote shuffle.

2449 is a reads list. There are some against the current reads here, which I kinda like.

2463 This is also something I would do as scum if I noticed a PR. But, would Rach still be alive at that point if scum were aware of the crumb? Probably not.

2474 and 75 give me a townsense.

2482 - are there theories on why this didn't happen?

2589 - looks town given Mastin's flip.

The back and forth with SiX at the start of day 3 looks town as fuck. so is 2701 and 2711. Basically all of his day 3 posts look town.

Day 4 since I showed up hasn't impressed me. But I have to remember that town must feel like the game is nearly solved. I felt like Egg since I started was as apathetic looking as ThAd, but his play is actually stronger looking in ISO than I thought.

Ok, so that was a roller coaster of an ISO but I'm leaning town now.

[fferyllt]

PA I hate to be a lazy ass but I need a break from ISOs. What are your current thoughts about Egg?

His entry was weird as hell. It took forever to get him to explain that his 'scum reads' were based on wagon position of the Day One lynch. I don't think he'd have come in like that as scum. The reaction testing, it's dicey for scum to get results they can use in that situation. I guess he could gamble on getting one usable result, but it's such a divergence from his teammates, and at !east AP and Yates were in decent position upon his entry.

He really spurred the mastin wagon. It was a time when the urgency was believable, but not so close to deadline as to be futile. And the mastin lynch triggered the AP one. I have a hard time seeing a replacement coming in and screwing over his team like that. Only reason that changes is if scum have daytalk, and even so I think it's a very unusual line to take.

With what happened on D3, he showed flexible thinking in considering my reaction to Snork. Scum would have tried to chain my mislynch off AP's.

His reactions and thought processes feel pro-town and genuine today.

That doesn't take his predecessor into account.

I didn't see this until I posted my wall. I'm kinda happy it confirms my overall feel as I read through the ISO.

[fferyllt]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

[fferyllt]

lol. rereading that post, I see how certain my gut is about pere vs ThAd.

I've been fully expecting there to be a night 4.

Pere isn't in the lynch lead anymore? I have a mental L-1 beside his name but Snork unvoted last page.

[SnowStorm]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

Are you going to ISO ThAd? (Or have you already?) I'd like to know what you think of mastin's read on him, since you seem to have some experience with her meta, because that read is the only question mark I have on my ThAd scum read. Does that read fit her scum meta? Or would she have a good reason to town-read a town-Thad, even if he didn't really look town?

[penguin_alien]

There's no way we have a 16:4 setup here...? Not with three flipped goons and minimum four town PRs. So night four is pretty much a surety.

[fferyllt]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

Are you going to ISO ThAd? (Or have you already?) I'd like to know what you think of mastin's read on him, since you seem to have some experience with her meta, because that read is the only question mark I have on my ThAd scum read. Does that read fit her scum meta? Or would she have a good reason to town-read a town-Thad, even if he didn't really look town?

ThAd, Pere and Deas tonight I hope, but time is growing short.

I'm a little reluctant to make my shot any easier to guess than I already have because I want the biggest bulls eye possible drawn on me tonight. But otoh I want my thoughts about possible lynch targets tomorrow in the thread. My research order has had some competing goals.

[fferyllt]

There's no way we have a 16:4 setup here...? Not with three flipped goons and minimum four town PRs. So night four is pretty much a surety.

And vig kills (from two sources), which statistically aren't very pro-town. I could see 3 goons and a jk given what we know of the setup.

[TheWayItEnds]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

Do you wanna vote PV so we can lynch scum today?

[penguin_alien]

Mafia doctor, maybe. A JK should have been blocking Snork, since they didn't shoot Snork anyways.

Thought to look into tomorrow: if we do have a four-man Mafia team with a doc, that doc is the only one immune to the gunsmith, and AP knew he was going down anyways. Which means the play D3 should have been to put that fourth man in optimal position. Yates was good to go via general read.

Town power revealed:
1 shot each vig/BG
x-shot vig
Gunsmith
1 shot each FN/JK

Mafia doc actually goes up against that fairly well. Non-investigative immune members can be made temp BP, investigative immune member can't be made BP.

Also interesting, if JK showed as having a gun, all the revealed town PRs would have tested positive to the gunsmith, also a counter to potentially low numbers.

Also hate to say it, but if we do have one Mafia standing who's investigative immune, that would explain why Snork hasn't been shot.

Sorry, easily distracted. I think it does dictate play going forward though, and I'd like ffery's more elaborated thoughts, because if we're down to one Mafia who's immune to investigation, that changes the scum hunting pool tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

Do you wanna vote PV so we can lynch scum today?

I'm hoping for more posts from him before the game day ends. I'm willing to move my vote when it's closer to nightfall.

Why do you think PV is more likely scum than ThAd?

[fferyllt]

ThAd

Very early day posts looked good. Easy going scumhunting and good questions. 91 is an example.

94 I probably wouldn't think about at all if it weren't addressed to mastin. The "glad you're townreading me and all" preface to the meaty question pings a tiny bit.

103 - is good pushback to MR's question about him taking the bjc scum claim seriously.

110 - more pushing Mastin. If this doesn't either slow down or get more hardball further down the ISO page the ping will be louder.

143 - readslist. no known scum mentioned. Not even Mastin who he's questioned twice prior to this post.

201 - reaction to the vig claim, seems almost overdone.

235 - interaction with yates, who called him on the reaction to the fake dayvig. I'm going to call it a town point because Yates calling attention to the post if he's scum seems off. Could be bussing though. the comment about having roughly the same number of town and scum reads directed at zdenek pings too. numbers at that point in the game are mostly driven by scumhunting style and ThAd's been around too long not to have noticed that.

261 - he backs off zdenek when MR challenges him.

271 - about Yates. positive associative?

278 - has a trying to get along feel to it

338 - long post with more get-along and stuff. standout is where he asks pisskop to elaborate on his Yates read. No questions or observations. Just "elaborate". Which stands out compared to his earlier ISO, and this question was about a vote on known scum. Am I overreacting? Maybe.

375 is this a wink wink?

520 this kind of follows on from the earlier posting with AP about never sharing the same alignment before. The "next time I'm scum I'm gonna blah blah" has a cheeky scumfuck feel to it.

796 has more of this feel, now with Yates. I feel like I'm blowing this up out of proportion, but whether ThAd is part of it or just an guileless foil to AP and Yates, I'm seeing a lot of hubris and overconfidence and "we're going to roll this town over" in these exchanges.


]797 part of the self declared campaign to get 4nxi3ty lynched.

1170 feels like a townpost. pissed about his 4nxi3ty wagon failing, doesn't like the luka wagon because of lack of opposition.

1197 is perceptive of Talah's mindset. Slightly different emphasis, i.e., "I have a bad feeling about this wagon" without the perceptive bits would have pinged hard.

1322 a potentially flawed meta case on someone is the easiest thing to ignore and let go on for a scum player. Questioning this, when the person you're interacting with is a strong town presence is something that a scum player simply doesn't need to do. Townpoints for this post.

1323 - this surprised me though I probably saw it from a different vantage point in one of the other isos. MR was not an easy target, and here ThAd is saying he's considering voting him.

1333 Reasons for the sudden stance on MR. Feels town.

1437 Also feels town. This is the STOP THE PRESSES post about aptil (later SiX) Of course the timing was bad...and he later gets some stick for that.

1603 "lol keep digging" gives me a townfeel.

1657 bold words about willing to nolynch rather than lynch a townread. Not words I would expect from scum. Especially considering the main wagons at that point.

As deadline approaches he defends Talah, including to AP.

1744 interaction with Mastin doesn't feel scum-scum.

1836 From this vantage it's hard to see why he became so certain about Rach-scum and she became his reason d'etre.

The interactions with Nero about Rach look like they could be town-motivated.

2114 reads exasperated town, but could be scum caught for wrong reasons?


There's a big post gap between his next 2 posts. In 2116 he asks Yates "Am I scum?" This reminds me so much of something I said to groupscum when I was traitor in a recent game. The scum player asked me if I was scum. My reply was something like "No. Are you?" Then in his next post, 2172 he replies to AP. 2 scum liking his wagon when the pressure on him was at its height?

2296 reads pissed off town. Some scum can do that kind of pissedness as well. I don't know if ThAd is one. Next few posts are more of same without the wall.

Ok, so 3 days later when Nero flipped friendly neighborizer and Rach claimed, it looks like he did a hard reset. It also looks like he kinda lost motivation.

Then 4 days and it's the start of Day 4. His posts look like he's burnt out regarding this game. I think part of the reason I've scumread him based mostly on day 4 plu s the scum ISOs is because the burnout made me think "defeatest scum" and after Days 2 and 3 that's probably how I would feel as scum.

The Damon vote seems odd given that his second pick was so much closer to lynch.

I dunno. The early posts bugged me. The passion of the argument with Nero about Rach looked like a lot for a scum player to invest in at that point. And Day 4, like I said looks pretty defeatest compared to other players working out how they want to proceed, even though the words he's writing are about how good things look for town at this point.

[fferyllt]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

Are you going to ISO ThAd? (Or have you already?) I'd like to know what you think of mastin's read on him, since you seem to have some experience with her meta, because that read is the only question mark I have on my ThAd scum read. Does that read fit her scum meta? Or would she have a good reason to town-read a town-Thad, even if he didn't really look town?

Mastin's official stance is that she hates to bus. I haven't played many scum games with her, but I've followed a few in real time, and meta'd her to hell and back a few times for other games. I think she mostly holds to that principle as scum.

This MD thread she started on the subject might interest you: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=31660

[fferyllt]

I haven't played many scum games with her,

This probably isn't clear. I haven't played any games where we were both scum. She has never played with scum-me, though she may have followed some of the games I've played as scum. I have played maybe 2 games where I was town and she was scum, and have read games I wasn't playing in real time when she was scum.

Her playstyle varies a lot. I think it's the underlying principles that stay more static.

[Damon_Gant]

I think the situation is this:

PV: L-2
ThAd: L-2
Me: L-3

Just over 8 hours to go. Time for us to make a decision. I believe that PV is more likely to flip scum than ThAd but I will acknowledge that PV is contributing a lot more to the game right now.

[TheWayItEnds]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

Do you wanna vote PV so we can lynch scum today?

I'm hoping for more posts from him before the game day ends. I'm willing to move my vote when it's closer to nightfall.

Why do you think PV is more likely scum than ThAd?

Sorry I left after I posted that.
I see that you went ahead and looked at ThAd but this is what I posted earlier:

ThAd is saved because day 2 happened and he was town in it. I mean sure hes town with shit reads... but hes still prob town.

I mean I'll admit that he isnt really helping himself out today, and maybe theres a reason I'm like the only person in the game town reading him but hand me a hammer and I'd hammer PV 10 out of 10 times here.

And I think I've been pretty clear about PV today.

Your PV read surprises me because its almost exactly opposite of mine, in that I dont think hes put in anything that resembles town effort today. I mean its almost deadline and he barely scraped reads together on 2 out of the 6 players we havent cleared yet.

I mean I know it sucks to fake a bunch of reads when we're just going to kill you anyway but if you're going to pretend to be town at least pretend to be town and actually come up with reads on the player base.

I know this probably isnt as verbose as you wanted but I just got back home and I'm about to pass out so its pretty much all I got.

I think the situation is this:

PV: L-2
ThAd: L-2
Me: L-3

Just over 8 hours to go. Time for us to make a decision. I believe that PV is more likely to flip scum than ThAd but I will acknowledge that PV is contributing a lot more to the game right now.

So we should keep scum around for longer because he has more posts? Thats.... an interesting way of doing things.

.... Time for sleep. I'll try to be awake before deadline but I would much prefer to wake up to a dead PV.

[fferyllt]

PeregrineV

It's 1 am. This may be a ramble.

223. This was his first substantive post after being prodded early day 1. And it's an interaction with Yates. Kind of a sparry interaction. I don't remember him being salty in games this early, but his overall meta has been shifting toward more active and more aggressive recently iirc.

225 is a pretty early reads list. He's called Mastin out as scum and has Yates as town.

234 starts a kinda silly argument with zdenek about the bjc wagon. This is the kind of thread that town-Pere tends to yank and keep worrying.

444 yates accusation of dishonorable play strikes me as something scum probably wouldn't say to/about a partner in the game thread somehow.

455 has a cheeky townfuck feel.

458 this comment about the whole dayvig thing being null has a parallel universe feel to it. By that I mean, he's perfectly happy seeing the game in a completely different way from most other players here. I dunno if this is a town marker, but I think it maybe? My recollection is that he's less in-your-face about being in his own world as scum.

463 another example of him processing the thread differently.

562 response to the accusation of being on the sideline. More disconnect.

563 so AP defended him here with a very similar observation to what I just posted above. It's been kind of eerie going through isos, making comments and then finding these sorts of parallels. It makes me think I'm not too badly synching with this game. But synching with scum is kinda disconcerting. Note to self - scum AP and I may agree more than town AP and I do. :/

564 so, disagreeing with his pisskop read here, but his explanation of what he's doing feels pretty town.

569 some null scum reads on players, mostly who are still in the game. There hasn't been any mention of that mastin scumread in a while.

579 interaction with AP about his "vapid" scum game. poormouthing one's scum game is alignment neutral. AP's post he's replying to doesn't feel like scumbuddy talk :/

588 this is transparency. There have been several examples of it, where he's let players behind the curtain to see what was driving his lines of questioning. This feels town to me.

611 what's missing from this list is...Mastin. Why did she fall of the radar?

769 finally I find the mason stuff. I've seen scum do mason buddy shtick with town players a few times. Never with scum. I don't think scum-Pere would be the trailblazer on this stuff. If AP started then it could be a scum marker.

773 holy fuck the Mastin scumread raises its head.

1464 and 1465 Ok, so here he's given up his Mastin wagon and is moving to Talah, and is getting a ton of attention from AP and Yates. I don't think this looks like a scumteam conclave. I just don't.

2051 Day 2, takes PA to task over not following up on Yates.

2191 Interested in Mastin wagon.


2201 asking yates about Mastin

2322 This defense of ThAd makes me feel bad for Pere given they're now competing wagons. :/

2327 I like this post. AP is testing the waters to see if Pere will vote nero in defense of ThAd. Pere's not interested.

2432 Yates a conditional scumspect. This was prompted by Deas.

2433 Makes me wonder why he didn't push harder for a Mastin lynch?

2911 I'm curious where this Mastin-Bus lore comes from? exactly one? or at most one? 2923 explains it.

This brings me up to day 4, where his posting since my replace-in seemed more town than ThAd.

I would hate to vote him after reading his ISO. It would be pure and suboptimal PoE on my part.