MS Fantasy Camp 2: Reaper's Tale! (Finished!)

[kanyeknowsbest]

Do you really think Nero Cain and Venmar are scum together

even just role speculation wise it seems reasonably unlikely that they are scum together.

dont really agree w. this @ all

[Plum]

I am less convinced than Penguin about Plum-scum at this point but I want to outline the reasons I feel UT is town. Plum, if you could take a look at it and give me your thoughts, that'll be cool.

• UT's Post 719 in defense of Zdenek feels town because he respects Zed as a player and the reasoning he gives resonates on a lot of levels. Now that Wicked Mafia, is over, I'll point out that UT was in the scum QT agreeing with his hydra partner T-Bone that Zdenek "had his shit together" and ought to be killed N1. However, UT also mentioned that he didn't think people were listening to Zdenek. UT's hydra was the primary reason we killed Zdenek N1. From that context, him saying "
  I've watched Zed laser through scumteams and not be taken seriously and I really want to give him the opportunity to shine here
  " came across as incredibly natural. I also like the positive, pro-active encouragement to Sixty and Shadoweh in the rest of that post.
  
• His back-and-forth with Sixty where he tries to persuade them to join the Venmar wagon felt town and I like his engagement with the game in general. Particularly him wanting to change his attitude from the Reckoning game and taking steps to improve that felt very genuine.

1. Some things that are natural to say as Town are just as easy to say in a natural way as scum? I'm sure he sincerely believes Zed has a strong Town game. I don't feel that the instance of his defense of Zed or explanation for it is particularly indicative of Town motivation for his behavior. I find it odd that his analysis of Zed in that defense references motivation as something relevant . . . we sorta disagreed on that when it came to something regarding me (i.e., he seemed to reject the idea that motivation analysis could be relevant to me showing the so-called beetlejuice tell).

2. I didn't think that his desire to change his attitude from the Reckoning game was alignment-dependent? Unless you think he would have abandoned any notion of trying that on drawing scum because e.g. he felt he could manipulate the game better in the old, more acerbic mode he mentions? I don't know, I'm just not seeing these specific interactions you mention as the most relevant or interesting aspects of UT's play. There's so much he's

not

saying, which is part of what I'm seeing as a problem.

Shadoweh, Empire, Plum, Chamber: I need your help for a moment.

I've been looking back at the first day, and there's some thoughts I've had.

Firstly, Reck and UT's interactions are off for me. Really off.

Secondly, UT's interactions with the Katsuki/Tim Howard/Plum wagons are very weird.

Can someoone go back and confirm I'm not going insane?

1. Your Townblock senses are on-point.

2. Gladly! But I'm not always confident looking at things just in ISO, which is all I have the brain for at the moment.

Reck is . . . another player UT never references once as anything but Town? It's possible it's just a quick read sort of thing, but the first few things Reck does that UT finds questionable he talks to/about Reck about not in a way that suggests Reck's alignment motivations for them are in question. It's not egregious like the one-off expression of a similar attitude to Shadoweh? Not sure what to make of Reck's side of things, if anything is actually notable. I'm with chamber, can you highlight stuff?

pleasiez is probably scum

I was kinda feeling it - kinda - kinda - I felt the replace-in posts were a little on the not saying much/easy to fake side, but then I checked and remembered it was CDB he replaced in for, so I'll have patience. CDB looked pretty Town to me.

Cerulean

- Cen you explain to me something from yesterday? Why were you so keen on Zed using his Frame? You were reading him as Town, the claim was pro-Town there's some potential negative utility of the frame whoever it's used on - why did you care that he use it?

[Nero Cain]

ok, I'm satisfied about the mechanic though I still think Venmar's play is on the scummy side. Although I actually kinda agree with him about UT not voting him and that's strange.

I'd also be ok with a Reck lynch.

unvote

Why the Unvote?
What are your thoughts on Kanye, Tim and LLD?

I am not sold on UT scum. Kayne and Tim, nothing has really jumped out at me though Kayne suggesting a 5 man team in an 18 player game is
Maybe he's going for one of those fake derp tells. It also sounds like he's trying to chain lynch Venmar and I. I think LLD is prob scum, she hasn't been doing squat since early day1.

pleasiez is probably scum

Why?

Do you really think Nero Cain and Venmar are scum together

even just role speculation wise it seems reasonably unlikely that they are scum together.

dont really agree w. this @ all

yeah, alignments are random so role speculation doesn't work. We've been over this on d1. Either Venmar is scum or neither of is scum.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'm putting this here as a placeholder for a comment I want to make. I'm waiting to see a few things first.

[Plessiez]

pleasiez is probably scum

Why?

It's a mystery! Oh, wait:

I didn't really understand where the kanye votes were coming from, but the points made in 1313 and 1318 seem pretty strong and I'm not sure why the kanye wagon basically collapsed soon after this. Kanye says he moved his vote away from Tim Howard because (1) nobody was interested in voting for him and "even Venmar was a bigger wagon" and (2) he didn't realise how close deadline was. Zdenek and Shadoweh point out the conflict between this and the actual vote counts / what kanye said at the time and the result is ... general indifference?

Have you given up on lynching Kanye then? Because that's looking like a better option to me at the moment.

Maybe it's not such a mystery .

VOTE: kanyeknowsbest

yeah, alignments are random so role speculation doesn't work. We've been over this on d1. Either Venmar is scum or neither of is scum.

I agree that chamber is wrong to say that Venmar and Nero are probably not scum together because of role speculation stuff -- as others have said, that's not how Faraday uPicks work. However, I think the

conclusion

is right even though the reasoning is off - I don't think Venmar and Nero are scum together (because of their day 1 interactions, particularly the 'Nero didn't even realise I was Majiffy!' / '... obviously I did' stuff).

[Plessiez]

I mean, look at these posts:

vote sangria

do we only have 1 day thats fucked up

1 day 12 hours

iove made flash wagons happen faster than that

Kanye clearly knows how close the day is to deadline when he moves his vote to a wagon that isn't going anywhere.

i would have moved it

even if i had realized

how close we were to deadline

And now he's saying "even if". Suggesting that actually he didn't realise. But the posts above make it obvious that he did.

What is the town motivation for lying like this?

[Nobody Special]

Plessiez is pretty much town, as is LLD. UT/Reck I have no read on. Nero is almost certainly town. chamber & Shadoweh are probtown.

Scum is within Plum, Tom Hortons, kanye, (and to a lesser extent) Cerulean, Flipping.


Okay, my current read on Shadoweh is current. I can't recall precisely why I thought she was scum earlier. Sorry!



-Nobody Special

[Cerulean]

Cerulean

- Cen you explain to me something from yesterday? Why were you so keen on Zed using his Frame? You were reading him as Town, the claim was pro-Town there's some potential negative utility of the frame whoever it's used on - why did you care that he use it?

Heading to work but real quick. We didn't necessarily *care* that he use it, though him using it on someone else we thought was pretty town on the off chance we were wrong about him made sense. For me, I hoped it would put an end to what looked like was going to become a distraction. First there was the bit about how he couldn't be a town framer and then Chamber wanted it used on him and would wagon zdenek if he didn't use it. I thought it would be best to use it on chamber as iirc he'd said he'd be able to tell if it was used on him whereas empire just wanted it used on a strong town read, he suggested sixty. It seemed to me that getting that taken care of would go a long way to stopping a burgeoning distraction that could potentially lead to a lynch on someone I thought was town. I was having flashbacks of ASoIaF where day one there was this huge distraction over whether or not Thor was really a miller, would Faraday put a miller in his games, should he be a policy lynch, and in the end he was the day one mislynch. I really didn't want to have to fight that fight again if it could be helped.

[Plessiez]

Right, so I finished reading day 1.

Still pretty confident in my town-reads on Shadoweh, chamber, Cerulean, Zdenek and Flipping Awesome. Also town-reading (but more weakly) LLD and obviously I think kanye is scum.

That leaves seven people.

Spoiler:

Nero Cain

I'm ... really confused about how Nero missed the fact that his vote would trigger a hammering double vote. I mean, it seems almost incredible. Nero's not an idiot. Venmar made a big deal of how the extra "sheep Majiffy or Thor" vote would only appear if he and Nero were both on the same wagon (first when he self-voted to demonstrate it, and then again when he (sarcastically?) urged Nero to join the Katsuki wagon). And it is in fact clear that Nero had quickly picked up the fact that Venmar had the Majiffy role.

On the other hand, I don't really see the scum motivation for this sort of "accidental" hammer. Katsuki was probably going to be lynched anyway (he was unlikely to be saved by a role claim in a uPick). Why would scum!Nero draw attention to himself this way for such a small reward?

I want to iso both NC and Venmar together later, but for now I'm leaning null-town.

Nobody Special

Really needs to post more. The "I'm just going to lurk because it's day 1 and I don't like day 1" attitude annoyed me (I mean,

nobody

likes day 1; if everyone lurked because of it nothing would actually happen worth dicussing). But it's an attitude I've seen from town before and it's apparanetly par for the course with NS. It's not day 1 now though. I'd still like to know why NS thinks Plum is scum.

Plum

Not really many posts to judge here.

I found the sequence of posts from 1262 to 1272 slightly odd. This seems like a strange way to interact with somebody you're scum-reading (or to "lead a discussion about them", which she later claims to be attempting to do.)

I'm also slightly confused by her current claim that "CDB looked pretty Town to me". Can't really find anything in her iso to support that.

I think Plum could easily be scum, but that's as much a case of her not having enough posts for me to have formed a solid read as it is anything else. I'd like to here more from somebody who's town-reading her (which is ... um, chamber?).

Reckoner

I started my day 1 read thinking Reckoner was likely scum, but now I'm much less sure. The argument with Tierce was pointless, but later posts (in particular 1029) were much better and give a strong sense of somebody who's actually interested in putting effort into solving the game. (Plus, he's simply

right

about Tim Howard's "both sides made good points" remark being all sorts of odd.)

A fairly weak town-read at the moment.

Tim Howard

As I said in my earlier catch-up, Tim has some

horrible

posts. There's the pointless bickering with Sixty ("you made somebody playing mafia feel bad! you should feel bad about this!") which all takes place in a weird vacuum where he doesn't even acknowledge that the person Sixty upset (by accusing her of posting unfunny spam) is Cerulean. Of whom Tim says "a lot of what they've posted is useless fluff". Plus there's the ridiculous "I think Venmar is town because he probably can't fake frustration as scum" / "oh, Tammy rage-quit because she was upset? eh, that slot's probably scum" aspect of things. And more generally, his reads just seem bizarre and I can't really follow the thought process behind them (the attack on Zdenek for trying to be a town leader / having cast unexplained votes, for instance).

This all just feels like Tim Howard is more interested in stirring up arguments than in trying to understand the game. (There's also the very odd "Reck and Sixty both made good points ... no, I refuse to say what these points were".)

Main points in Tim Howard's defence are that there are people I know to have been town (namely sangres and CDB) who seemed pretty convinced that all this stuff was not alignment indicative and that Tim Howard is town. And I noticed that Tim Howard's issues with Sixty actually started

before

Tammy's replace out, which suggests that the later stuff is just another case of "these two people don't get along" as opposed to anything calculated or game-relevant.

This is still a scum-read, but weaker than it would be otherwise.

Untrod Tripod

I'm struggling to remember a single post UT has made in this game. And as he's got 90 of them, that's a bit worrying.

There's the Plum stuff, I guess. And ... um. I guess that things like like 1444 followed by 1446 suggest a certain degree of spontaneity that's more likely to come from town than scum?

Solidly null still. (I suppose it's somewhat unlikely that UT and Plum are scum together, too.)

Venmar

His posts are irritating, and the (apparently genuine) "it's not my job to seem transparent, it's up to everybody else to learn how to read me" attitude infuriates me. Towards the end of day 1 I actually started leaning towards town-reading him though . I think it's because of the

way

he revealed "his" extra vote (I agree that there's no reason to think scum

can't

have a double voter). I'm not really sure about this -- he just reminds me of other players who I've seen lynched more for playstyle than anything concrete.

A weaker scum-read than Tim Howard, but still that side of null for now. As I said earlier, I don't think Venmar and Nero make sense as scum together, but I'll reread them both in iso later.

(I should probably also read some of Venmar's past games, but I just ... really don't want to, honestly.)

Still to do: I'm going to look at the Katsuki wagon a bit more, compare my current scum suspects with sangres's and Sixty's and do the isos I talked about in the spoiler tag above. But in any case I think a kanye lynch would be a pretty good idea today.

[Tim Howard]

Not impressed with UT's sheepy OMGUS vote on us and I approve of the additional votes on him!

quadz is Nexus even posting in your hydra anymore?

Also you know better than to use OMGUS as a scumtell so this is just gross.

No, as I said before, I'm now the primary posting head and we talk occasionally about what we think of the game.
Also no I don't


God dammit CDB WHY MUST YOU FLAKE ALLATIME

LLD might be scum for her interaction with sangres early in the game.

What about it?

That is, I am saying Regfan would only replace into slots he thinks are town and if Cerulean are town. If either condition isn't met, he wouldn't replace in. Cerulean feels town so.

This is shitty and bad. Stop it.

I didn't really understand where the kanye votes were coming from, but the points made in 1313 and 1318 seem pretty strong and I'm not sure why the kanye wagon basically collapsed soon after this. Kanye says he moved his vote away from Tim Howard because (1) nobody was interested in voting for him and "even Venmar was a bigger wagon" and (2) he didn't realise how close deadline was. Zdenek and Shadoweh point out the conflict between this and the actual vote counts / what kanye said at the time and the result is ... general indifference?

I really don't like Tim Howard's 1337. UT's 1340 captures my reaction to that fairly well. Reasoning like "I think X is town, Y is pushing them so might be scum" just seems ... off. Who scumhunts this way? (Also, Tim says they don't think

Venmar

could fake frustration but they still can't get a read on a hydra with

Tammy

in? After Tammy's big replace out post in day 1? This doesn't make sense to me.)

Kanye wagon died because he lurked it away, basically.
Wanna explain what else you don't like about that post? You mention one thing in particular I said ("considering my townread on Venmar, the fact that UT keeps pushing him is really making me feel like he could be scum angling for a fairly easy mislynch.") which I think is a solid additional reason to scumread somebody given the context (namely D1 which you have not read). I'm not going to argue that I'm having a million original thoughts with my pushes and cases this game, cause I'm not and I realize that. Heaven forbid I recognize good cases and followup on thinking that they're good.


Yeah, my vote stays on UT for now. Nothing's happened since my last post to change my opinions on anyone, with the exception of reminding me that I could vote Kanye still and that Plessiez is probably town (not so much a change as a confirmation of our opinion on CDB).

[Lost Butterfly]

Day 2, VC 13

Venmar - (1):

Cerulean

Tim Howard - (5):

kanyeknowsbest, Shadoweh, xRECKONERx, Untrod Tripod, chamber

Untrod Tripod - (3):

Plum, Tim Howard, Venmar,

Plum - (1):

Nobody Special

Lady Lambdadelta - (1):

Zdenek

kanyeknowsbest - (1):

Plessiez

Not voting - (3):

Flipping Awesome, Lady Lambdadelta,

Nero Cain

With

15

alive it takes

8

to lynch.
Deadline for Day 1:

11th of May at 8:10pm

Irish Time - countdown: (expired on 2014-05-11 15:10:00)

No one is V/la.[/area]

[Shadoweh]

That doesn't look much like a claim Mr. Howard. The off-wagon people are scumreading you and there's no Katsuki for everyone to hate. Just let it out compardre.

[Shadoweh]

On the other hand, I don't really see the scum motivation for this sort of "accidental" hammer. Katsuki was probably going to be lynched anyway (he was unlikely to be saved by a role claim in a uPick). Why would scum!Nero draw attention to himself this way for such a small reward?

Well, people are too forgiving of derphammers sometimes, see Spyrex in ASOIAF nearly escaping. There IS reward in lynching/nightkilling in a cycle where no one gets to know what roles we just missed out on. I mean, if Katsuki had claimed a regular vig, its entirely possible people would have wanted him to live to make a kill. It helps that Nero's posts have eclipsed being awful.

[Plessiez]

I'm not sure what "eclipsed being awful" means.

[Shadoweh]

it means he's gone beyond 'bad poster' into 'obvious faking scum'

[Plessiez]

it means he's gone beyond 'bad poster' into 'obvious faking scum'

Other than the hammer stuff, what makes you say that? (I mean, I know you've talked about hating Nero's posts before, but I can't remember you why.)

[Zdenek]

Its on!

Vote: KKB{/b]

[Zdenek]

Vote: KKB

!!!111!!11111!!!1!!!11!!

[kanyeknowsbest]

pleasiez is probably scum

Why?

It's a mystery! Oh, wait:

I didn't really understand where the kanye votes were coming from, but the points made in 1313 and 1318 seem pretty strong and I'm not sure why the kanye wagon basically collapsed soon after this. Kanye says he moved his vote away from Tim Howard because (1) nobody was interested in voting for him and "even Venmar was a bigger wagon" and (2) he didn't realise how close deadline was. Zdenek and Shadoweh point out the conflict between this and the actual vote counts / what kanye said at the time and the result is ... general indifference?

Have you given up on lynching Kanye then? Because that's looking like a better option to me at the moment.

Maybe it's not such a mystery :roll:.

VOTE: kanyeknowsbest

yeah, alignments are random so role speculation doesn't work. We've been over this on d1. Either Venmar is scum or neither of is scum.

I agree that chamber is wrong to say that Venmar and Nero are probably not scum together because of role speculation stuff -- as others have said, that's not how Faraday uPicks work. However, I think the

conclusion

is right even though the reasoning is off - I don't think Venmar and Nero are scum together (because of their day 1 interactions, particularly the 'Nero didn't even realise I was Majiffy!' / '... obviously I did' stuff).

lol

[kanyeknowsbest]

plum, i wasnt really impressed with cdb to begin w. so pleasiez replace in posts jive pretty well w. my expectations,.

[kanyeknowsbest]

nero btw thats not how chaining lynches works btw.

[Zdenek]

nothing has really jumped out at me though Kayne suggesting a 5 man team in an 18 player game is
Maybe he's going for one of those fake derp tells. It also sounds like he's trying to chain lynch Venmar and I.

Sounds like you should be scum reading Kanye.

Have you even tried to read Tim? They're quite horrid.

[Nero Cain]

Nero is almost certainly town.

Didn't you want me dead a few pages ago? What made you change your mind?

it means he's gone beyond 'bad poster' into 'obvious faking scum'

Well this rather ironic given that you were claiming that my blue name made me town.

i wont get hung up on those details til one of them flips scum

nero btw thats not how chaining lynches works btw.

You think we are both scum...if one of us flips town your 1499 makes it sound like you don't care.

nothing has really jumped out at me though Kayne suggesting a 5 man team in an 18 player game is
Maybe he's going for one of those fake derp tells. It also sounds like he's trying to chain lynch Venmar and I.

Sounds like you should be scum reading Kanye.

Have you even tried to read Tim? They're quite horrid.

*shrugz* I need to do

some

alot of rereading. I'll iso Tim later tonight. I'm pretty much in the same camp as (plum and Ple?) that this game has been hard to read. On d1 I was focused on Kat and Venmar the most so I kinda glazed over the TH stuff.

How do you feel about, LLD?

[Venmar]

Okay, I think I am feeling better now, my leg is good.

However.

Nothing I care about, please lynch UT

[Zdenek]

How do you feel about, LLD?

Not obvious?

Scum.