-Analysis of me in
1689 is good.
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1812 leans town because I think that scum would actually feel obviously manipulative posting it and may avoid it, while I think it's all reasonable and makes sense from town.
-Ffery wall in
2157 feels very over-the-top for scum. More likely from town concerned about a read on them.
-Assuming RBD is scum because of the miller claim is odd, just because set-ups often have quirks like two millers etc. where town chaotically argues about it to their death. Until now I always thought that CF had claimed miller and that the consensus was that people weren't sure whether it was a true counterclaim or not (that was the part of the game I never actually read). However,
2184 seeks to make it a 1v1 and doesn't even consider the possibility of multiple millers in what is obviously a complicated set-up. I also disagree that the way CF did it makes him town, as there aren't really any consequences. If scum, it's clearly designed to get the RBD lynch, and if RBD is lynched and flips as a town miller, then the question of why he would counterclaim, and lolCabdsetup would probably make him regarded as obvtown who can get away with not being killed because of their miller + claimed status. This is definitely not my biggest concern about CF (as looking at it objectively, it's certainly possible town), but it is odd to me.
I think this is scummy. With other people thinking that two millers in a game is possible, there has to be some sort of doubt in CF's mind, and I very much doubt that town-CF would want to be lynched/vigged if RBD flip town. It looks like scum making a nice bold claim that they know is not actually going to go through. I see the strength in read here as similar (if not less strong than) to the read of a cop on an innocent result in a set-up where there may be a godfather. It's pretty unlikely that the innocent result is scum, but there's no way the cop's going to say 'well if they flip scum, lynch me!' because the possibility is there, just as I think it has to have been in this scenario. On the other hand, I think it can easily come from scum trying to fake conviction and be town when lol it's not actually something reasonable town would say. The more I'm writing the better I feel about this and I think it may actually be really strong. I'll have to read over it again to make sure I'm not just latching onto anything I can find, but at this point in time DV believes he may have something to get excited about!
2916 may be interesting to look at later.
3036 too.
3116.
This is part of what makes me suspicious of his read change. It's understandable if he has a problem with my suspicion of him, but he goes beyond that to suddenly claim he doesn't like any of my recent posts. I don't understand how this can be the case, as obviously my alignment hasn't changed mid-game and I don't see how my posting has changed so much to justify such a change. If anything I've been more transparent and been putting more effort in than before.
3971 is townish to me though. I don't know if F-16 would have no trouble with that kind of thing as scum, but I could see scum being uncomfortable saying that kind of thing.
I find
4112 pretty town as well. The point about reinforcing is pretty accurate, as I think the same thing happened with Ceph and I with our Mastin read Day 1. The frustration feels town too.
5121 does actually feel like it could be fake, but looking at it now the Tammy thing in general doesn't make a whole lot of sense as scum. It's possible that it'd make CF look more town, but what's the point really? It actually reminds me a lot of how I get when I'm in a mood, and realise that what I was thinking was not quite right at the time.
Ugh I want to read you as town so much, but this is hard!!!
5334 just feels really town to me.
His day 3 play does feel flat though. There's a lot of interacting, but apart from the Tammy thing, you don't get a real idea of who he wants to lynch. AP is a clear scumread, but you don't get the impression from his posts that he actually cares about getting him lynched even before the JSU result (if you're town and did then I apologise). The vibe is much more one of just sitting back and seeing what happens, while talking to people about game-related ~stuff~.
5610 shows that he's 'considering all the possibilities' and thinks that bussing is unlikely.
In post 5712, CarbonFiber wrote:We're still close to the same page except I have Magenta and Cupcake switched around. But we're lynching either Cupcake or AP today and that should help clear things up.
Now this is one of the posts that I feel is a strong example of my concern's about CarbonFiber's Day 3 play. This post (following Stalin's read list) indicates that Cupcake is a strong townread for CF. If Cupcake vs. AP was a true 1v1 then I'd understand him not really fighting a cupcake lynch if flipping town meant that AP was scum and everyone would know it, but it wasn't really like that. There were scenarios where they could both be town, so if he really thought Cupcake-town and AP-scum, I think he'd be less likely to restrict the lynch to them two, and at least try to lynch another scumread (e.g. Nacho, Penguin) if he didn't think he could get AP lynched that day.
5907 and following posts are pretty ugh.
In post 6116, CarbonFiber wrote:@ DV, if you have info that there are multiple roleblockers in the game, I think that makes a crucial difference in whether or not Katsuki is lynched today so you should definitely out it.
Ok, so we do claim something that indicates roleblockers may not be a rare thing. We still think Cupcake is scum based on play, but it's odd that CF says this, but doesn't do anything with the information we provide if he apparently thinks Cupcake is town.
