Tales of You (Endgame)

[Just Sheep Us]

The part you quoted is referential to the penguin-town hypothetical. I'm saying that making that play wouldn't make sense in that gamestate because penguin town implies tammy-scum, and going for a moderate to high-risk play with another viable and relatively easy to achieve mislynch on the table would be dumb.

[AngryPidgeon]

I dislike that you aren't giving me something solid. I realize that you are presented with conflicting information but it feels like you are trying to keep as many avenues open as possible.

[AngryPidgeon]

Also I dislike that you were on the RBD, mastin, Katsuki, and Magenta wagons. The only person that was also on all those last 3 was PA afaicr.

The Nacho wagon seems really uninformative to me.

[AngryPidgeon]

What went down in the neighborhood last night? I dont know how much you are allowed to quote but Id like to know how you both responded to magenta's flip.

[Just Sheep Us]

I dislike that you aren't giving me something solid. I realize that you are presented with conflicting information but it feels like you are trying to keep as many avenues open as possible.

So me describing my thought process with all contingencies and options explained with which ones I think are most likely is "trying to keep avenues open?"

You realize that mafia is a game of uncertainty/acting on probabilistic information, right?

[Just Sheep Us]

What went down in the neighborhood last night? I dont know how much you are allowed to quote but Id like to know how you both responded to magenta's flip.

We were both surprised by the magenta flip.

We didn't talk to much. I had graduation yesterday and was largely absent from the thread. F-16 and I started talking before the day started, which is when I laid out the thought process I presented to you, and we've since been discussing which of RG/FoxHound we'd prefer lynched based on our certainty levels on each of them and which is more likely to long-term net town a win.

[AngryPidgeon]

I realize that. I was asking you specifically to make a judgement call and all I got was a rundown of how everyone could be scum.

[Just Sheep Us]

I'm leaning towards it being RG/Foxhound scum theatre over Tammy being scum at this point. I've thought Tammy was town at more points in the game than FoxHound/RG. RG's been pretty scummy for a while, and him pushing a bus on Nacho for a long time seems like the sort of play Nacho would set up. Also, there's the fact that the day 1 positionality put Tammy in the center of just about everything with FoxHound buddying it hardcore in a way that looks suspect.

Oh look I made the judgment call. Yeah, I didn't use "I THINK IT'S DEFINITELY THIS LOL" language, but I indicated that I have made a conclusion based on the information and potential gamestates in front of me.

[AngryPidgeon]

Well I'm slightly more inclined to trust Fox since they have essentially confirmed they know at least 2 peoples names and I got a PM confirming that they took an investigative action. Also if you could conftown them or something, that'd be amazing. Assuming of course you are town. But Im not sure I'd be inclined totrust anything that happened there since there seems to be another source of roleblocks unaccounted for[1] and the odds of you both being town is kind of low.

[1] Citation needed.

[Just Sheep Us]

Scum can have investigative PRs.

[AngryPidgeon]

Scum can have investigative PRs.

No shit, sherlock. But Rg is sort of kind of claiming that Fox is lying about their role and, from multiple angles, I don't see that they are.

[Just Sheep Us]

RG's contesting that one result couldn't have happened based on their role, iirc.

Also, if RG is scum lying about one of FoxHound getting a result, that negates the scum-theatre case how, exactly?

[AngryPidgeon]

RG's contesting that one result couldn't have happened based on their role, iirc.

Also, if RG is scum lying about one of FoxHound getting a result, that negates the scum-theatre case how, exactly?

Yes I realize that. Nothing has happened to show that one/none/both of these players is lying or not.

But Fox has correctly identified RG's role name. They (sortof) correctly guessed CF's rolename Today, I'll give them that their actions make sense assuming they knew it. I also KNOW they have taken an investigative action last night.

So if RG is town and Fox is scum, what gives? Fox pretty clearly has the role they are claiming or at least something very similar.

[Just Sheep Us]

I'm not getting where that last question is coming from, and that makes me think we're talking past each other.

There are 3 possible gamestates.

Fox/RG
Town/Scum
Scum/Town
Scum/Scum

What you've just posted is a pretty compelling argument against the second case, but what about the first and third? Does the information provided say that either of those aren't possible? I'm arguing that the Scum/Scum instance is most likely.

[AngryPidgeon]

What you've just posted is a pretty compelling argument against the second case, but what about the first and third? Does the information provided say that either of those aren't possible? I'm arguing that the Scum/Scum instance is most likely.

No, I suppose that either of those is possible, which sort of points to RG being scum. Im having a hard time committing to that belief for whatever reason though, part of me just wants to ignore everything thats happened between them.

[The Fox and the Hound]

Also, there's the fact that the day 1 positionality put Tammy in the center of just about everything with FoxHound buddying it hardcore in a way that looks suspect.

This has never been a thing and still isn't.

[Titan]

The part you quoted is referential to the penguin-town hypothetical. I'm saying that making that play wouldn't make sense in that gamestate because penguin town implies tammy-scum, and going for a moderate to high-risk play with another viable and relatively easy to achieve mislynch on the table would be dumb.

Nothing implies Tammy!scum!

[Titan]

Tammy...I don't know. Im not going to writer her off anymore, the multiple days of self-voting and apparently lakc of desire to lynch PA who she thinks is bamboozling her is not going to fly any more. Feeling somewhat similarly about PA, who has been kind of V/LA and not doing much.

Uh no. I only remember voting myself yesterday, and as I didn't die last night when an extra kill would have meant the win for scum, I won't be voting myself today as apparently my gift was not something that could kill me.

I have a great lack of desire to lynch anyone because I think everyone except for me is some shade of scum, the only person I had even the sightest bit of confidence on being scum was nacho and I wasn't even convinced of that.

woooooooooo

I wish I were scum though! This feeling lost as hell thing sucks. I just want one person I think is town that I don't feel is manipulating me on some level. The only person I felt that from died last night, so.

Also, I'm still v/la, family is still here, I won't be doing anything serious until Wednesday.

Although if you guys just want to quicklynch town, so we can congratulate the scum team on a well-played game, that's cool too!

[CarbonFiber]

I am waiting on RG to post and crossvote. I am 100% confident Titan and JSU are town and I know I am town. So, {3 scum, 1 town} in AP, Fox, RG, Penguin. I'll post more thoughts after they vote.

[Red Gyarados]

Don't care. Don't see how they can be town.

#YOLO

Vote: Fox

I'm not talking to anyone that was on that wagon the previous day.

So fucking dumb.

Also, PA could be scum I guess. I thought her vote onto the wagon was pretty bad. Everyone else at least displayed some ounce of uncertainty or stupidity. Except for Fox. Fox is just scum.

[The Fox and the Hound]

So, here's what I'm thinking (most of it's pretty obvious, but I'm going to go ahead and say it anyway!)

I don't think any of Titan, JSU, CF, AP make much sense at all as scum, but with the only scum possibilities left being PA and RG, something's obviously up. In the first group of four, I'm leaning towards AP being the scum, but for now I want to lynch PA or RG and I don't really care which. The chances of more than one scum being in that first group is like !!! and yeah no I don't think I'm going to consider it. JSU/AP could work but I really don't think JSU is scum based on play so there's that.

If Ceph has a particular inclination between RG and PA then he can go wherever his heart leads him.

[CarbonFiber]

What do you make of RG's vote on you?

[The Fox and the Hound]

I actually do have an inclination. Fancy that.

VOTE: RG

I'm torn on the third scum being JSU or AP with CF being a pretty distant third. Hopefully I'll have some time to figure that out.

[AngryPidgeon]

Can you explain to me why JSU is town for their play?

[CarbonFiber]

Angry Pidgeon.

Nachomamma8.

magenta_thegreat.

Red Gyarados.

There is your scumteam.

Good to know for amusement purposes.