MICRO 350 JESTER NIGHTLESS GAME OVER

[pieguyn]

votecount 1.4

ActionDan (3) - Xayzeck, Rubicon, shos

DoctorPepper (2) - Xegarus, ActionDan
shos (2) - DoctorPepper, Shinobi
Xayzeck (1) - ZZZX

Not Voting (1) - Psyche

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is 6/24, 21:00 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2014-06-24 21:00:00).

[Psyche]

So the jester has one unreal and two real courses of action available to him:
- A get-lynched-quick scheme where he does things that would normally be considered obvious scumslips and maybe gets lynched
- A diffuse scheme where he just does what he considers scummy but not jestery and hopefully eventually gets lynched
- An extended scheme where he first makes an honest effort to seem like town (which is a more realistic imitation of scum behavior), and then later slips into "scummy" play, if at all

The first is unreal, because it won't work in this setup. Scum have a temporary incentive to "play" jester, but because the jester is set to commit suicide eventually and predictably, that incentive is weak. We can assume that the obvious anti-town wackos are the jester.

The other two are more challenging. The third is definitely the strongest, except with the caveat that its first step may be executed so well that the second won't be executable except in a really caricatured manner. In the end, we just have to always keep in mind that a person's jesterhood cannot be ruled out by evidence of otherwise sound play; every time we're about to lynch someone, we have to ask ourselves, "Is he acting this way on purpose?"

The second is the easiest, and perhaps the most probable strategy being used. By either lurking or being only somewhat obstructive or both, they can attract compromise lynches and win the day. Same question as above.

I had some ideas for detecting jestery behavior, but it might just work as advice for him/her. It's important that we roundly call out all scummy behavior as scummy behavior, even if we do suspect that it's jester behavior. How the player reacts to this calling out is very important for determining their actual role.

Such fun...

[Psyche]

DrP is very probably scum and certainly not the jester.
I think we should lynch him today, not D3 unless we find someone more scummy/safe to deal with.
There's really no point in delaying safe behavior for D3 when we'll probably have good enough reads on everyone that another safe lynch (ex. Xayzeck who is pretty clearly town) will be available.

Nothing DrP has done indicates town, and nothing about the pattern of reactions to his lynch indicates town. There's a lot about him to call scummy. And he's definitely not the jester. What more could you want in a D1 lynch with this setup???

vote Doctor Pepper

[Shinobi]

Shinobi, jester suicides if he isn't lynched by D4, so D3 is his LAST day to fufill his wincon.

If we know that someone ISN'T the jester, then should we lynch them on D3, so that the jester won't be able to fufill his wincon at the last minute? What seems to be the problem you're having with this?

I had a point I was making but I forgot what it was. I'll get back to you on it.

I won't, though.

[shos]

if DrP is scum, it does not matter WHEN we lynch him, as long as we do. so we have no incentive to lynch him NOW over D3. this helps us get rid of option #3 in psyche's post, cuz jester will have to get himself lynched in TWO days instead of three. also, VOTE: shinobi

his play is 100% not jester, and is 80% not town imo.

[DoctorPepper]

V/LA until the 20th

[shos]

this game has the fastest pace I've seen. even faster than this topic, and that is a reaaaalllly fast growing topic

[Psyche]

if DrP is scum, it does not matter WHEN we lynch him, as long as we do. so we have no incentive to lynch him NOW over D3. this helps us get rid of option #3 in psyche's post, cuz jester will have to get himself lynched in TWO days instead of three. also, VOTE: shinobi

his play is 100% not jester, and is 80% not town imo.

You're either not thinking this through or you have some antitown agenda. Our incentive in lynching him now is the same as it is on D3: to avoid lynching the jester. All we gain by delaying our lynch is the off-chance of pressuring the jester IF our other two lynches before D4 go well.

D1 and D2, because of the little information we have, are the Days we're most likely to lynch the jester, not D3

There is absolutely no chance of the jester winning as long as we don't play stupidly, as long as we only lynch people who have an obvious survival instinct. Choosing risky lynches over perfectly safe lynches is a very obvious example of what counts as stupid play.

[Psyche]

, VOTE: shinobi

his play is 100% not jester, and is 80% not town imo.

Based on this rationale for voting shinobi, your vote is in the wrong place.

DrP is

actually

100% not jester and much more likely to not be town. If you disagree, why don't you save shinobi for D3 and lynch DrP now?

[shos]

psyche, your post 107 is horribly naive. at the moment we have the least chance to lynch jester (1/9). also, jester can allow himself to lynch someone else today, so the jester might actually help lynching someone else in a plan to be lynched for it later.

there is a not bad chance to lyncht he jester, you know. the naivity of that second paragraph - 'lynch thsoe with survival instinct' is so stupid - jester can easily fake that.

being committed to lynching DrP in D3 helps us because that means that the jester will oppose any lynch other than him on D2. in whatever way he can, he will try to avoid having a lynch-not-him on D2, because he knows he's screwed if that is done. today, everything is a wildcard, so there's no reason for you to lynch DrP unless you TRULY think he is scum, which I can't see why you'd think so quickly into the game with the amount of posts he has.

Shinobi is your scummate isn't he?

[Shinobi]

shos, you're my scummate.

That's why I'm voting you.

[shos]

how is that beneficial?
I mean I am voting YOU so are we doublebussing?
do scum have daytalk btw.? :< :0

[Shinobi]

I have no idea. I've never rolled scum so I don't know how the mechanics work.

Also, yes, we are double bussing. Nobody will suspect us.

[ZZZX]

Well o now have a list of 4 people with a 90% chance of not being a jester including myself that I'll share soon

[shos]

dunno bout you I think it's AD

vote shinobi with me come on.

[Psyche]

lulz "naive"
coarse ratios like '1/9' only matter if you're planning to lynch at random for the next two days
are you, shos?

[Psyche]

i have 3 confident not-jester reads right now and it's only p4 — and that's not even including myself.
You have at least two confident not-jester reads yourself.
How many do you think you will have by D3?

The answer: more than enough.

[Psyche]

you've even admitted yourself that the jester will be soooo obvious come D3

[Rubicon]

Your #101 is a pretty good post. I'd add that the difference between jester and mafia is that the mafia are a team, with team dynamics and no night kill which adds a unique set of pressures on them.

I don't think the jester is going to be obvious at all, though. Or we'll be lucky if they are. I'm focusing on team hunting and jester PoE, but considering the range of behaviors between good-bad jester, good-bad scum, good-trolling town, etc...

[Rubicon]

of course it's not a good wagon. but again: we'll lynch him on D3 as safety measures.

I want this explained, though. Why is DoctorPepper not a good wagon in your view?

[Rubicon]

actually I think my objection to that shos line is here:

which I can't see why you'd think so quickly into the game with the amount of posts he has.

...this is not scumhunting DP, and shouldn't == "DP is not a good wagon".

[Rubicon]

Well o now have a list of 4 people with a 90% chance of not being a jester including myself that I'll share soon

Could you also answer the questions I directed to you? I'm sure you must just have missed them.

[pieguyn]

ActionDan has been prodded.

Xegarus has failed to pick up his prod and is being replaced. Searching...

[shos]

you don't understand, do you? you want to keep your cards as long as possible. if you know DrP is not jester, and I mean KNOW, not 'confident', then you should use it last. you just don't get it - jester's goal is to MAKE YOU CONFIDENT that he is not the jester. why leave it open when you can get a safe D3 lynch? by that time jester will have quite enough time to 1. look scummy 2. make *some* effort to find scum to appear non-jester....jester needs to prepare himself for a lynch.

go read 'knightless jester' by moneybags(quick and VERY enjoyable read) to see how I won as jest. you're being naive

[Psyche]

oh my god