Ikaruga Mafia (Game Over!)

[Bulbazak]

Field Polarity:

Light

Vote Count

Shiny Hydreigon (0):
Doublade (1): Titus
Saki (1): Dry-fit
ZZZX (0):
PeregrineV (0):
Spring Starflower (1): ZZZX
Eddie Fenix (0):
TiphaineDeath (0):
Sharpest-knife-on-tree (2): Xayzeck, Jordan_Downey
Dry-fit (3): Saki, RachMarie, Doublade
Malakittens (2): Thor665, Jon_h61
Nachomamma8 (0):
MafiaSSK (0):
Thor665 (0):
Jon_h61 (1): The Necromancers
Xayzeck (1): TiphaineDeath
The Necromancers (0):
Titus (3): Spring Starflower, Sharpest-knife-on-tree, Malakittens
Jordan_Downey (0):
RachMarie (0):

Not Voting (5): Shiny Hydreigon, PeregrineV, Eddie Fenix, Nachomamma8, MafiaSSK

It is day 2. With 20 alive, it takes 11 to lynch. Day ends on Saturday, July 5 at 9:45pm EST. Countdown: (expired on 2014-07-05 21:45:00).

Shiny Hydreigon is V/LA until Wednesday, July 9.

[Sharpest-knife-on-tree]

Oh and Jordan, If I were scum I would just go right along with whatever you said, FYI. (of course you can turn that into WIFOM as well.) I am open to hearing what your case is and let me see if you once again include lots of null behavior, mafascum labled "anti-town" actions, and other elements that are sketchy or if you actually think you have a reasoned argument. Whatever you think you are looking, if town, it is 1000% confbias and flawed. I can already predict the case that might be brought up.

Let me had Jordan, if you state a case please include why it is that you think scum would do such and such regarding my behavior. What you think scum would gain from it. TIA.

[The Necromancers]

Necro, how the hell do you get off chiding me for not working with anyone and then blatantly ignore my posts.

I said temporarily ignore you. Not permanently. Your post had one or two things in there, but was mainly telling me to compile the case against talah/jon. Which I didn't really feel like putting much time/effort into doing, since I was focusing on finding other scum.

TSO was pushing Xayzeck with me all day, then he followed me off him, then he died. Simplest explanation as to why he died is that xayzeck is scum, not to mention existing information that points in that direction.

When it comes to scum nightkills, the simplest answer is very often not even close to remotely correct. The guideline for scum nightkills is

simpler

answers, not the simplest answers. There are multiple variables involved in scum NK decisions.

For a start:
-Who scum are.
-Who scum are considering for a nightkill. (They typically have a pool of ~5 players at this stage in the game: TSO was selected above the others, but you can be GUARANTEED that there were other options discussed, ultimately decided against.)
* Are the scum aiming for PRs?
* What do the scum know about each player?
* Are the scum aiming for players they think will not get mislynched?
* Are the scum aiming for a

successful

nightkill?
* Are the scum killing as part of a broader scum-PR scenario? (This is actually a HUGE one. Scum PRs play a MASSIVE influence over their NKs. For instance, scum typically use their other roles on other members of the pool.)
* Are the scum killing the player for the threat that player theoretically presents?
* Are the scum killing the player for what that player has actually said?
~If so, are the scum killing them for defending a townread (Dry-fit), advocating a scumread (Xayzeck), or both?
* Do the scum kill for WIFOM, or kill because they can get away with their kill being dismissed?

All factor into scum discussions. I'm probably missing a ton of other things, too.
Xayzeck being scum is slightly more likely than him being town to me right now, but I'm taking all of those factors into consideration for why TSO above all other candidates. (Among others, knowing that jon's a scum PR.)

Why was my rvs interesting may I ask? And how does that make me look scum?

Not so much your RVS, so much as you as a player. Scum's interactions with you are vaguely buddy-like. I'm kinda sorta leaning against you being scum at the moment, but I still have a few isos to do.

ZZX, Spring is a decent townread of mine so far in the game. Why she she a scumread for you?

I can answer why Spring's a worry-read of mine. Interactions play a part in it, combined with a voting pattern that looks vaguely sketchy. As with ZX, still need to do a few isos to confirm.

I made a mistake yesterday, I will not make the same mistake again. Occam commands me, VOTE: Xayzeck.
Also acceptable lynches would be titus or zzzx, though I have an unfortunate history of scumreading titus when she's town so I'm a bit more leery of that one.
In other news though anyone still scumreading necro should be shot to increase the intelligence of the gene pool. And thor is probably town.

So this kind of posting yesterday is what made me think TD was town.

That same type of posting today is making me think that TD's scum. (TD's a top-priority iso.)

Why do you feel there's a set time before you lay a vote down? This seems really preemptively defensive.

(That's because it is, and he's scum.)

Three random posts do not justify a vote. I cannot see your logic train.

(That's because he's scum.)

I think Malakittens received a scum Role this game. (Slinks off into the corner to hide)
I'm borrowing a page of Saki's playbook today.

(Still scum, btw.)

Titus is likely scum and I'm probably thinking she's your partner.
Really, you or her are the only two lynches I'm accepting this day.
VOTE: Titus

Hi, my name is Mastin, and I fully endorse this product and/or sheep of me.

(Titus is so scum that I'm actually considering moving her below jon, just because she's

that

scum, like Mara's

that

town.)

[The Necromancers]

Why doesn't necro need whiteknighting?

A hydra. Of Antihero. And Mastin. Needing WKing.


Let that statement sink in for a bit. Not only Antihero. But MASTIN. (Who just got a justified don corelone nomination, btw.) Needing defense.
As Antihero would likely say,
Lol.

(I told you he's a bit of a bad influence. I typically take on the tonality of my hydra partner quite a bit when I synch up with them well. I sound a lot more like Nacho in Calcifer, for instance. I also sometimes begin sounding like MafiaSSK in MastinSSK, and he can be me fairly well too, but which is which becomes fairly obvious with time.)


Also, I note again the use of WK.
WK has a very specific meaning: scum, white-knighting a town player, to act as their defender.
There is no such thing as scum-WKing-scum. That's scum-defending-scumbuddy.
There is no such thing as town-WKing-*alignment*. That's town, defending a player who they have a townread on.

WKing, as a term, has a very strict definition of scum-defending-town.

If Necro fears me because I'm town having the game wrong, Necro needs whiteknighting as well to prevent his mislynch and to have Necro encourage more mislynches.

Bluntly, the only thing about your play I fear is that you'll slip through the cracks when we end up NKed.

@Titus

- Necro is pushing jon as scum. You are saying "No, he's a lurker. Lurk, Jon, Lurk." Is that whiteknighting on your part, or is it more akin to coaching an unresponsive teammate?

Well, the scum have daytalk, but it's still in-thread scum-scum interactions.

(Josh post coming.)

[The Necromancers]

The plan had a couple of different levels, but the first is purely math. Optimal scumplay with even or close to even numbers is to shoot using whichever polarity has more scum. This leads me to the belief that the scumteam had more dark players than light players.

Hey, Anti.
Remember that thing I said?

Yeah, that?
About what scum likely did, compared to town, and what they likely did?

...Yeah. Jordan's scum.

The second level to the plan is that scum would naturally attempt to derail the plan.

Unless, y'know. It was a scum plan, neutral or beneficial to them, and town players reacted to it as being exactly that.

SKOT's posting, which Jingle is attempting to paint as being scum-motivated, is actually hilariously townposting. There was no townier way to take that stance, and frankly, it was one of the towniest stances to take towards the whole affair: "People will do what is best based on their role". Meaning if following the plan is good for their role, they'll follow; if bad, they won't. It's exactly the kind of post I'd expect from town having doubt in the plan--not scum derailing the plan. Let's assume Jordan-town; scum can derail the plan by remaining silent and using their roles in a way to circumvent and subvert the plan, making it work for them instead of against them. That's optimal scum play, in fact: turn the town's gamebreaking strategy into a web of confusion that ultimately does break the game...in favor of the scum, who know more about the setup than the town, and thus, can coordinate their actions better to cause more cohesion that the town would lack.

SKOT knew this, essentially, and pointed it out. That wasn't scumposting; that was townposting. Because he's right--the plan is flawed. I happen to think some of what Jordan has said is true: keeping roughly-even polarities is probably beneficial to the town overall. I don't think town should be switching polarities that often, either. I think any polarity shifts should be claimed, and whether they were willing or not. I also do not think claiming polarities is a good idea. That does not mean I think Jordan's plan is going to work. Nor did I particularly put effort into following it.

[TiphaineDeath]

Did not change polarity.

[Jordan_Downey]

Back and responding to all questions asked of me. If anyone wants to ask more, I've got some time atm to interact.

[Jordan_Downey]

@Jordan-

what post was this initial plan that Sharpest is trying to scum-derail?

I specifically didn't post the full plan until today, just now, in the post you clearly read. I'll post the back and forth between me and SKOT where he tried to derail it under a spoiler.

Spoiler: A bunch of quotes you should have already read.

Claim: Polarity locker. We can target a player at the beginning of the night and they will not be able to change their polarity. I'm not sure how utility that is, but it specifically notes that it will not be blocked by polarity, and is a 'neutral shot.'

It is positive utility to have the town at a neutral polarity, or as close to a neutral alignment as possible. This gives us extra information we can use when solving for alignment. To this end, I suggest no one switch their alignment tonight.

The mod clarified that the NK can be blocked by polarity, which implies to me that 1. The scum team is larger than it would normally be. 2. This game is multiball. 3. There are multiple killing roles.

In order to accurately get knowledge from the polarity mechanic, we need to get a claim from each lynch candidate at L-1 before the hammer.

I'm not telling them to claim what polarity they are. We do not know what polarity they are, unless you've got some special insight you'd like to share with the class. I just want them to attempt to change polarities from what they are now to the other option, and confirm tomorrow whether said change actually happened. Hint: it won't. I can't tell if you're being dense or just scum afraid of my plan.

To anyone doubting my plan here is a brief rundown of how it doesn't hurt us to trust me right now:

1. No one's alignment is known. That means that staying the same and switching have roughly the same chances at being effective.
2. My plan effectively doesn't change anything until I reveal it tomorrow, where we will have a day phase to discuss it. This can only add content to analyze.
3. Should scum be afraid of it, then they will likely kill me tonight, resolving a slot of contention and confirming my alignment, which can only be a good thing for town.
4. If my logic is flawed, we will be able to figure that out, without having changed our play substantially.

There is no reason, at all, from a town POV not to at least humor me tonight.

I honestly don't want an aegor vote just because tso wants it.

Still don't see anyone else sheeping you TSO, do you have a money back guarantee?

aphix

I can understand the sentiment but it was not a TSO push it was more either/or here right?

Also I am not sure the value of your plan.

At worst, my plan does not hurt us. At best, it gives us an advantage over scum. Why not give it a chance. I promise to full reveal tomorrow, as well as the rest of my setup spec so far.

At worst, my plan does not hurt us. At best, it gives us an advantage over scum. Why not give it a chance. I promise to full reveal tomorrow, as well as the rest of my setup spec so far.

there is no way you are going to get full town compliance with this. 1st of all you can be interfered with or blocked so focusing on 1 player is flawed. 2nd you will not get full compliance as each person will make the decision best for there particular role. Add in lurk-a-derps who will not even read the plan. It really does nothing to narrow things in on scum and provide them less place to hide. And I personally am not going to confirm or deny what I am going to do or not do regarding polarity.

Your argument is basically that my plan is going to fail because you will not cooperate. Am I getting that right? Not that there is no benefit to be had, nor that there is a reason not to follow it, but that you (or 'lurk-a-derps') won't. You'd better have a damn good reason should you fail the plan, because I see no town motivation to that. From my POV I believe choosing not to change polarities is optimal play today. Be ready to justify yourself if you don't agree.

My role is confirmable, you're being stupid. If my plan is bad, lynch me for it tomorrow. The goal here is to get as much information as possible. If you don't follow the plan then you'd best have a damn good reason. I'm promising full disclosure tomorrow, so stop being an idiot.

Your argument is basically that my plan is going to fail because you will not cooperate. Am I getting that right? Not that there is no benefit to be had, nor that there is a reason not to follow it, but that you (or 'lurk-a-derps') won't. You'd better have a damn good reason should you fail the plan, because I see no town motivation to that. From my POV I believe choosing not to change polarities is optimal play today. Be ready to justify yourself if you don't agree.

No, I said I am not going to let scum know what I am going to do. People will choose to do what they think is best based on there role or being ignorant of it. It has nothing to do with whether I change my polarity or not, there are others who will not. And what possible benefit is there? Maybe a polarity cop? There is no substance to your plan and thinking you can pick one person to "switch" and try and lock them is fool hardy as it tells scum something they wouldn't know right off the bat.

I WILL EXPLAIN THE BENEFIT TOMORROW. There is no town motivation behind not at least seeing this through. You're not making any reasonable arguments for why you shouldn't give my plan a shot. There is no additional information tonight. The only information is that you don't change alignments. Explain to me how that benefits scum? Our polarities are unknown. Either explain to me using logic why my plan benefits scum or be ready to explain why you didn't fucking listen to me tomorrow.

He never responded to me after 1702 despite posting again before the thread closed.

Hey, mastinhero, would you please be my bestest friend ever and link me to whichever post is the best summary of your talah/jon case? I need to read that ISO and I'd prefer if I didn't have to hunt it down myself. I will if you're not nice though.

[Jordan_Downey]

The second level to the plan is that scum would naturally attempt to derail the plan.

Unless, y'know. It was a scum plan, neutral or beneficial to them, and town players reacted to it as being exactly that.

Please, mastin, tell me what about my plan is beneficial to scum. What about the posts where I explained how my plan does not hurt town in any way? Please, pick over my plan with a fine toothed comb to find any exploits I might be missing.

SKOT's posting, which Jingle is attempting to paint as being scum-motivated, is actually hilariously townposting. There was no townier way to take that stance, and frankly, it was one of the towniest stances to take towards the whole affair: "People will do what is best based on their role". Meaning if following the plan is good for their role, they'll follow; if bad, they won't. It's exactly the kind of post I'd expect from town having doubt in the plan--not scum derailing the plan. Let's assume Jordan-town; scum can derail the plan by remaining silent and using their roles in a way to circumvent and subvert the plan, making it work for them instead of against them. That's optimal scum play, in fact: turn the town's gamebreaking strategy into a web of confusion that ultimately does break the game...in favor of the scum, who know more about the setup than the town, and thus, can coordinate their actions better to cause more cohesion that the town would lack.

SKOT knew this, essentially, and pointed it out. That wasn't scumposting; that was townposting. Because he's right--the plan is flawed. I happen to think some of what Jordan has said is true: keeping roughly-even polarities is probably beneficial to the town overall. I don't think town should be switching polarities that often, either. I think any polarity shifts should be claimed, and whether they were willing or not. I also do not think claiming polarities is a good idea. That does not mean I think Jordan's plan is going to work. Nor did I particularly put effort into following it.

1. If you can find a theoretical situation where this plan can hurt us speak up now.
2. SKOT's initial stance is understandable from town. The rest of his activity is decidedly not. First, he's subtly directing people to not follow the plan. He's outright stating that it will fail. This is leading town towards not even attempting to follow the plan.
3. How is scum going to derail a plan they don't have details on, other than exactly how SKOT tried (and succeeded) to? How is scum going to turn my strategy into a benefit to them without the details? How is this plan in any way breakable?
4. So my plan is going to fail, but you're completely willing to follow it anyway? You're adorable. Please, enlighten me as to the flaws you appear to see.

I'm gone for a bit, but I should be back later tonight.

[Dry-fit]

Someone vig Saki and TIP, tia.

Why not just lynch Saki instead?

VOTE: Dry-fit

since this wagon didn't actually end with a lynch yesterday

Hi Saki are you interested in doing any actual scumhunting?

When it comes to scum nightkills, the simplest answer is very often not even close to remotely correct. The guideline for scum nightkills is simpler answers, not the simplest answers. There are multiple variables involved in scum NK decisions.

I think whoeer wanted to kill TSO didn't realize he basically claied locked vt. And you're apparently in that group. I'd wager Saki is in that group as well.

[Saki]

pdodge

I think whoeer wanted to kill TSO didn't realize he basically claied locked vt. And you're apparently in that group. I'd wager Saki is in that group as well.

refer to 1927, kindly linked to you by yours truly.

[EddieFenix]

So, I've been reading a bit today... And, who's big ass bright idea was it to push Aegor?!

[TiphaineDeath]

Guilty your honor :/.

[Bulbazak]

Prodding Spring Starflower.

[EddieFenix]

Guilty your honor :/.

Alright, after looking over your ISO, to me, it looks like one of those wagon hops to get a lynch when the one you wanted didn't rack up high enough and you wanted some answers coming into day 2. Did you happen to get them?

[TiphaineDeath]

I didn't get my lynch, the only other guy pushing that lynch, and the guy pushing it harder than I was died, so yeah I'd say I got answers.

[Shiny Hydreigon]

Ive got some time today!

About 5 pages behind, But one question, did the (aphix?) head explain what he said he was gonna? Because otherwise, we should just push the lynch that should have happened yesterday

[Shiny Hydreigon]

Uh.. well, fuck me, jordan might be town? That said, it does have a pretty big flaw, in that it means ALL of town is going to have to trust them, in which I still do not, and claiming whether or not one has changed would peg them as a target for NK, and make it easier for scum to figure out who is light if those among them are dark, because of the field change

[Shiny Hydreigon]

Other than that, I want to switch mala with titus in mastins list, I think but...

If youre around, can we talk? Ill try and be around sunday

[RachMarie]

mara how about dry fit? The aegor wagon really took off in response to that wagon


no polarity change for me BTW

[Shiny Hydreigon]

Meh, I dont really have a read on him one way or another, I wouldn't mind pinching him, I guess. What's the scum case on him?

[Shiny Hydreigon]

Pinching = lynching

lolauto-correct

[RachMarie]

Besides the wagon on aegor in counter to his, and his response to the wagon on him? I would have to go back to find it I have been out of the loop a bit since we had cable issues, now fixed

[Shiny Hydreigon]

Thats awesome!

And, I

think

dryfit is the one I called town in my irritation yesterday, But I dont recall him doing much, or standing out a whole lot, which is typical dryfit, so

[Shiny Hydreigon]

Eh.. just Isoed him, leaning town