MS Fantasy Camp 2: Reaper's Tale! (Finished!)
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- SleepyKrew
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SleepyKrew he/himSnark Attack
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- Cerulean
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Cerulean Mafia Scum
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FTR I had no intention of ever changing my read on Hyperion. I intended for him to be the person I'd just town read until I got lynched. Hyperion is from westeros and I never get to play with him; he's literally the only reason why I stayed in that game as I almost outed before the game started but I saw him join so I stayed in; he also really has a tendency to get scum read, and I felt bad that circumstances made it so that I pretty much had to change my read on him and hammer him for the win. He's also the person I kicked myself for because someone cleared him as town if I was scum based on my read on him, and man I just felt bad for that as far as what would happen when I flipped. If he'd legitimately caught me, I'd probably just have been proud of him for it. That sounds dumb, but I sometimes get a bit protective of people from westeros; I had the same problem in Rocky a couple years ago when I played with Expecto and Snowstorm even though I was scum. IDK how much sense that makes.In post 2788, Flipping Awesome wrote:Okay, Tammy, just read through your wall and it gave me awesome townie feelings and explains a lot of stuff like why you don't feel like re-reading the game and why your read on Kanye changed. I know it can't have been easy going over all of the D1 play so thanks for posting it. I feel like I understand your take on the game a lot better after reading your wall. That's part of the reason I got paranoid in that I didn't think you would be so certain in your Reck read only to flip it late game like you did with your Hyperion read in Fairies but reading through your explanation, it makes so much sense as town and I really shouldn't have been doubting my townread on you at all. Anyways my activity will be reduced after tomorrow since I'm going to visit family so I'm going to try and get in as much analysis as possible. I'm on page 28 of my re-read at this point so I'll have more thoughts as I get through it.
My only experience with Plum is Attack on Titan where I correctly read her as pretty obviously town based on spontaneous posting as compared to the On the Boat game which I had followed because Empire replaced in and had used me as a rant buddy. The next game I played with her was the Wizards game, which you've at least read part of because that was the game that Kanye was scum in and manipulated me in, but I was convinced that Plum was scum there but she wasn't. I still do like the "look at this guy" case she had for UT. I'd have to look back at the On the Boat game to see how her posting was there, but and this is where I totally need to get on my reread from at least day two and reset because I was convinced that Chamber had a innocent clear on her, so I've been operating from a Plum is confirmed innocent space since early day two from that. Empire had her in his POE pool even after that, even after I kept saying um I think chamber has a weak neighborizer innocent on her and he was like eh she's still in POE because we can't be certain that you picking up on those pr hints are real. Still though Nacho and Plum hydra'd for the ADwD game and weren't super active there either. This is where I need to reset in my rereading the game from a you had the wrong impression all game standpoint. I still like Plum though. I do need to reread that On the Boat game; if she's capable of reversing and rethinking her reads as scum then my early points might not be as strong, but the fact that she made that case and then backed off and hasn't revisited it? UGH I want to call that town, but much like my fangirl namesake I'm feeling like too many people are town.falcon wrote: What are your updated thoughts on Plum? I still don't like her early push on Nobody Special and the subsequent backtracking of it after being asked for a case. It felt like an attack on low hanging fruit which she later backed down from when people challenged her on it. I also haven't seen a lot of analysis from her in the later stages of the game besides the push on Reck when Tim Howard was being lynched but no vote or any real push to see it through, but she was V/LA which is messing with my ability to read her. Do you have any insights from your past games that I should be looking for when I re-read. I haven't played many games with most of the playerlist here and I am sort of relying on you to help me sort out reads and that's part of the reason I felt so much pressure to read you correctly here, I think it was somewhat similar to you feeling a lot of pressure to get a good read on Nacho in Tales after giving him that power N0 and I do think I was focussing on you more than I should in normal circumstances. Plum's reads make sense to me. She is going from a you/Venmar obvtown reads to POEing the rest of the game. But I am not sure how big a towntell it is. I don't like that she came after me citing Shadoweh's incisive questioning but then I thought Shadoweh was scum too when she came after me following Chamber's nk.
Okay when Empire gets back in the country, I'll ask him what he meant about that. I'm not sure when he's due back though. All I know is he let me know he was going out of the country some time ago, and when I messaged him to take over for me this week, he was urg and then i tried contacting him today but his friend contacted me to say that he's out of the country and data roaming is expensive so he'll talk to me when he gets home but didn't tell me when that was. OH you're worried about the doc claim, sorry I thought that was empire and I was getting confused. I want to think about all the claims, so give me a minute on that. I have to play claim dreamscape to get everything situated. One thing I do want to stress is that we can't really play what would proper balance due to claims be in a faraday upick. There is some merit to that, as in ASoIaF upick I did not believe all the roleblocker claims could possibly be town. AND they weren't, but iirc the only scum roleblocker was the person who could universally block all roles at night. All of the rest of us who were roleblockers ended up being town, and Shadoweh and I who had similar marriage/neighborizer roles both ended up town. In Faraday Upicks, he makes the roles first then he sets alignments, then he makes tweaks. So, claim dreamscape where I need a minute to ponder. This is my fifth? maybe fourth? Faraday modded upick and I kinda feel like I have a little handle on what he would tweak. As far as what UT has chosen to do with his role, I need to think about that to, and think about it as I reread from day two. I think I would have expected either a protect on you or Pless night two? And maybe us after Venmar? I don't know, but I know I've thought I was the obvious protect in games and the doc hasn't even considered me before, so I need to look at context, which I'll do probably tonight, though I caught d3x in Chef mafia partially for not protecting me on night one when I drove the hell out of a lynch on scum.falcoln wrote: What do you think of UT at this point? I was worried about him late game as I spent time re-reading because it felt like he was buddying Reck and Empire's "evil chancellor" comment does have some merit. But looking at UT/Reck interactions in the Reckoning, I can see why UT doesn't want to suspect Reck and go down that same rabbit hole again. There are things that bug me about UT though, one is the doc claim, the other is the reluctance to vote Kanye and I am wondering if Nero Cain is right about it being a Reck/UT team. Also, I figured UT as town would want to protect obvtown rather than Reck each night. Reck who was being suspected by a lot of people. Kanye also spent time defending UT but it came right after you said that the UT wagon was bad. I don't know if Kanye would jump in to take a stance against a declining wagon on a scumbuddy whereas it would make a ton of sense as a weak whiteknighting. Role-wise, I have trouble seeing both UT and Skrew as town so I am not sure I buy a Reck/Plum team although individually I find them scummy.
I have no completed games with SleepyKrew. We talk somewhat often and he named my cat, but we've not played together. The only thing I know about Sleepy is that he prefers scum. That's about it. He was in the On the Boat game, and he was obvious town, once he flaked, but yeah that's about all I know for SleepyKrew. Everything else I know, or think I know, is tied up in ongoing games. but his predecessor was Nobody Special whom I have no clue how to read. Empire might have had him in his poe pool but I just looked at can't find it, also I can't find it in our skype chat, but we talk a lot pretty regularly until recently, so. I depend on him to keep me centered on nobody special since castle zar. Oh in Castle Zar, Empire did a meta work up on nobody special, and I guess one thing I liked was how he came back and jumped on Kanye, but I do know that as scum his meta is to be more involved or at least that's what he told me in NY146 when we were in LyLo and I was trying to decide between him and MoI, but when we were partners in Kanye's waterworld he definitely wasn't. I think he replaced out because of Reck though if I'm being presumptuous and that would be weird for partners to do? So that's a lot of nothing?falcon wrote: Also, how much experience do you have playing with SleepyKrew and do you have a read on him yet? I think I've heard him say you haven't played together but I'm not sure. The commuter claim actually makes sense with the flavor so I buy it but it isn't alignment indicative.
I don't know what Reck's scum motivation could be for keeping Nero and I in his POE list for kanye/venmar partners and thinking nobody special is town based on very little. Reck and I were masons in a skype mafia game though last night and he thought everyone else but his mason partners seemed scummy, except for someone else based ON META, though so I could kinda see him thinking a bunch of people were scummy. Um that sounds stupid and I hate it when mollie uses skype meta to read people with in forum games, so it's not stable, but I don't see at all why he could say that Nero could be bussing but Nobody Special couldn't be. I'm gonna read from that link in a minute and get back to you. Actually in a bit longer than a minute. I'm gonna play a game and do this at the same time. So, I'll get back to you on this.falcon wrote: As far as Reck is concerned, I found his play a bit different from The Reckoning at least the way he reacted to suspicion. It felt very over the top there especially in response to Fate scumreading him and I can see why you townread him here based off of his reaction to Sixty. What do you think is the scum motivation for Reck objecting to your meta-read on him here? I just strongly dislike him having you and Nero Cain in his POE pool as it feels like he is stretching credulity by still considering that either of you could be scum over say SleepyKrew/NS. The "he could be bussing" response when asked why he targeted Nero Cain upon Venmar's scumflip feels too simplistic and not like he was actually trying to read Nero Cain because Nero/Venmar didn't look like a bus at all. While hypothetically, it is possible, I don't think it is very likely. I also thought there is far less scumhunting here than in The Reckoning. What do you make of him voting Nero Cain in Post 1603 and then coming back and saying to hammer Nero in Post 1930. ISO him from the first link and there isn't actually a lot of content and it feels like he is somewhat disengaged from the game. But it could make sense from a town viewpoint as well if he genuinely thought Nero was scummy but the actual reasoning for voting him was pretty weak.
Overall, I am back to thinking at the same place as I was at the beginning of the day. I am sure that you and Nero Cain are town and not sure which two of Reck/UT/Sleepy/Plum are scum. We can't lynch them all so I'm going to have to figure out at least one more strong townread to bank the game on.- Cerulean
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Cerulean Mafia Scum
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Okay I'm looking at 1603, and all I see is him voting and saying it seems bad, the saying it seems bad is IDK. I'm sorry, I'm not sure I can actually finish this. tomorrow?- Lost Butterfly
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Lost Butterfly Mafia Scum
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Nero Cain
Not voting - (3):Cerulean, Plum, Flipping Awesome
With7alive it takes4to lynch.
Deadline for Day 5:30th of June at 3:30pmIrish Time - countdown: (expired on 2014-06-30 10:30:56)
--[/area]Mafiascum Fantasy Camp 2 - Day 7 ongoing- Cerulean
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Cerulean Mafia Scum
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- Untrod Tripod
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Untrod Tripod Fat and Sassy
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- xRECKONERx
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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- SleepyKrew
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SleepyKrew he/himSnark Attack
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Here Reck I'll requote this for you.
-SleepyKrewIn post 2728, SleepyKrew wrote:
That explanation makes perfect sense as scum...In post 2714, xRECKONERx wrote:Because they never expressed suspicion of me. My use of the ability was to try and use HOT OR NOT to dissuade people who suspected me from suspecting me -- akin to how I'd invent stuff to give my biggest suspects to keep them from suspecting me.
BTW MASHUPS & MAFIA FINALE IS LIVE NOW
Plus here you're saying you didn't use it on someone you suspected because you only used it on people suspecting you, whereas earlier you said you used it on people suspecting you instead of suspects of your own because you had no suspects.In post 2647, SleepyKrew wrote:
Why not on a scumread?In post 2611, xRECKONERx wrote:#2 my philosophy both nights was to target the person who was most vocal about wanting me lynched or who I at least remembered expressing interest in lynching me the previous day, I think. I definitely know I did that with Sixty & Nero, and I'm assuming Venmar too if it followed the same train of thought
-SleepyKrew
VOTE: ReckIn post 2648, xRECKONERx wrote:because i have had like no scumreads this entire game
I'm all ears about Plum, and any explanation you might have for this.
-SleepyKrewTo be clear: my avatar was drawn by SaveTheDragons.- SleepyKrew
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SleepyKrew he/himSnark Attack
- SleepyKrew
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Look forward to it. In the meantime, I'll requote these for you.In post 2805, Untrod Tripod wrote:In other news my doc is still restricted to people who haven't been the third vote on a wagon. I'll show you the lists when I have real internet, but the "why didnt he do x" is a dumb game because not everyone was on the table every nightIn post 2770, SleepyKrew wrote:
"My townread is based on something that he easily could do as scum, but I'll doc him."In post 2766, Untrod Tripod wrote:And yeah I guess he could but im really not going to drink that wine
That's not pointless WIFOM. That's something you should actually think about and try to figure out.
-SleepyKrew
-SleepyKrewIn post 2772, SleepyKrew wrote:Oh UT who did you protect the other nights and how come you didn't claim those protects as well?
-SleepyKrewTo be clear: my avatar was drawn by SaveTheDragons.- xRECKONERx
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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Tim Howard was the closest thing I had to a scumread but you can even see me second guessing and doubting myself the whole time.
green shirt thursdays- Flipping Awesome
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Flipping Awesome Goon
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On page 30 right now and I reached the next Plum wall. I don't like this one either.
You defend your position that NS isn't an easy target and then undermine it by saying that you may just be <expletive> this game due to a combination of vague "internal" and "external" factors. You then say that he may be an easy target after all, negating your previous statement and defend that it is a still a read "will I or nill I" whatever that means. The entire paragraph here says nothing at all other than NS may or may not be easy target.In post 725, Plum wrote:I'd argue that NS isn't an easy target inasmuch as he is not easy to get traction on, only easy for others to dismiss as an easy target. Or maybe I'm just shit this game so far due to a combination of internal and external factors. He may be an easy target, and I'm not super confident in my read here, but a read it is, will I or nill I.
This is really vague. I at least like that you made a direct accusation i.e. NS blending in but then use really hedgy and flowery language to describe NS's votes.In post 725, Plum wrote:I do believe NS is deliberately blending into the background. I think the placement of his votes is opportunistic - not in the traditional overblown "lol I can take advantage of it to drive a Shadoweh lynch here and now!" but come out of a desire to take advantage of certain things in the gamestate. I think that was possibly the case with his TH vote and more likely than that was the case for his Shadoweh vote. The stagnation of the Shadoweh wagon is largely to his discredit in this matter.
So, you are basically dismissing CDB as town for no reason. If he is minimally readable overall, why do clear him in a faux-POE of the Shadoweh wagon to go after NS? Your "townread" on CDB is incredibly weak, too. Why is mere interaction with the wagon he started point to him being town?In post 725, Plum wrote: Take a look at the others on it: CDB I'm meh on, but he's interacted about the way the wagon he basically started has been moving a little, at least. I feel there's a reasonable chance he's sincere even though he's minimally readable overall.
This is again really vague. I can buy having a gut townread but your reasoning here reads as somewhat contrived. "Honesty about the wagon he's on?" What does that even mean?In post 725, Plum wrote:Chamber, besides other Townish signals, I think is also showing honesty about the wagon he's on and how it's developing.
What I hate about this post is that there is no conviction and no real scumhunting drive behind Plum's posting. It feels like too much surface level analysis that is meant to look good but doesn't feel as if Plum thought she actually caught scum that she was pushing.In post 725, Plum wrote:Same with Cerulean (the distractions/multiple foci/getting into arguments with the target all normal). Is it *typical* of NS to do what he's doing? To place this sort of vote and just not give a damn, even though for someone complaining of the pervasive Day 1 malaise in this game, his hook on the game is much stronger and more useful than, say, mine: he having convictions that the one he's wagoning is scum, and she has the largest wagon? Meh.
To votehop a series of bad, irrelevant nonwagons like Rack when he'd done as little as Reck, skip over to the momentarily popular TH wagon, Shdoweh, quick vote off onto me because everything is meta (and for me, being meta is suffering), back to Shadoweh just kinda because? The wagons here that had meaning because they were large or controversial were there for him to merely be on, not remotely participate in.
To hell with it, I'd take that fourth wagon vote twice in a row, no drive, trajectory-obscuring thing as scum. I might well be wrong. And I don't feel super confident about anything here because it all sucks, mkay, will try to get myself together here and IRL, but for the time being, NS.
And now she switches over to Tim Howard upon Sixty's request. Granted this is just D1 and Plum's D2 posts are better so I'll get to them soon.In post 725, Plum wrote:Sixty, I'd have even said you're right about me being on a nonwagon no one will follow except that every possible wagon has been completely stagnant for about three days and that I'm far from the only one complaining of horrible Day 1 unmooredness, but for you, MIRACLES. They come cheap.
MIRACLES:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Tim Howard
You are also on a bad wagon for mediocre reasons and ALSO a wagon that should have gone further and stalled and retreated later than it did, huh. If we want to move things? We'll move them. I'll try to help.
V/LA through Tuesday evening, more Passover- Flipping Awesome
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Flipping Awesome Goon
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- Flipping Awesome
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Flipping Awesome Goon
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Also, note to myself to read this: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5780877- SleepyKrew
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SleepyKrew he/himSnark Attack
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Alright probably last question.In post 2809, xRECKONERx wrote:Tim Howard was the closest thing I had to a scumread but you can even see me second guessing and doubting myself the whole time.
If your play has not been helpful to the town, and you are aware of this, why did you use your power for survivalistic purposes when there were (probably) better uses?
-SleepyKrewTo be clear: my avatar was drawn by SaveTheDragons.- Flipping Awesome
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Flipping Awesome Goon
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Okay, re-read through the UT meta I posted above. Note, I was scum in that game but some of the meta part of the analysis was genuine.
UT definitely buddies townies as scum as well as interacts with his scumbuddies in a way that looks like town-scum. His interactions with Venmar aren't unfakeable nor do I believe UT/Reck team is particularly unlikely.
What I do believe is unlikely is a UT/Plum team. UT's response to Plum engaging him was to evade her and say that he has no interest in letting her lead a discussion about him. Reading from Post 1262 onwards should make that clear. I don't think UT as scum would miss the chance to engage and refute her arguments.
I also think that he wouldn't have reacted the way he did if he and Plum had decided N1 that they would orchestrate scum theater.
I believe the scum are one of {Reck, SleepyKrew} and one of {UT, Plum}.- Cerulean
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Cerulean Mafia Scum
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- Cerulean
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Cerulean Mafia Scum
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Disregard that please, I meant to save it to drafts while I looked at something.- xRECKONERx
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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I have two thoughts about this:In post 2813, SleepyKrew wrote:
Alright probably last question.In post 2809, xRECKONERx wrote:Tim Howard was the closest thing I had to a scumread but you can even see me second guessing and doubting myself the whole time.
If your play has not been helpful to the town, and you are aware of this, why did you use your power for survivalistic purposes when there were (probably) better uses?
-SleepyKrew
1) I didn't know how else to use my ability, my default play was something like survival, but...
2) I thought using my ability each night would confirm myself to that person, a la a fruit vendor, and given the power roles we'd be able to determine there was no way I committed the kills. A confirmed slot is useful.green shirt thursdays- Flipping Awesome
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Reck, you said that you initially voted Kanye because you thought Zdenek was crumbing a guilty which makes sense from the first two of the following posts. But why did you vote Kanye again after unvoting and voting Tim Howard?In post 1260, xRECKONERx wrote:I wish I had anything interesting to add but I don't.
I kinda jumped on the kanye train for reasons I don't want to make public.- Flipping Awesome
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Flipping Awesome Goon
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Here are links to Plum's town and scum games:
Plum
TOWN: Mini 1537: Attack on Titan, Mini 1538: Powerful Wizards, Mini 1531: Mafia Pinnipedum
SCUM: Mini 1501: We're on a Boat, POWERFUL WIZARD MAFIA, Open 298: Follow the Cop, Might of Mordor
Reading through Plum's posts on Attack On Titan, there is a world of difference between her posts here and her posts there. In AOT, she came across as very direct, inquisitive, and aggressive in a way I don't think she can fake. She exudes confidence in her pushes that look like she actually believes what she is doing. A brief example below:
Subject: Mini 1537: ATTACK ON TITAN (Game Over!)
She also occasionally does cases as evidenced by the following post:In post 122, Plum wrote:Because he's scum.
Plum says that scum rarely make themselves as obvious to her as Pasch did in that game so I took a look at another game to see how she posts. Reading through her ISO in the Wizards game, her posts there came across as a lot more fakeable and much less obvtown. One thing I did notice though is that she's genuinely trying to figure the game out and interact with a lot of people. Structurally her posts in both AOT and Wizards seem similar. A lot of short posts, one liners, responses and questions with the occasional "case" as shown in AOT.In post 497, Plum wrote:Kaze: Pasche literally and directly misrepped Kagami. He stated that she pretended that Weak meant Normal Weak even though she knew that wasn't true - but sheneverdid so; from the beginning she stated clearly that itwasn'tNormal Weak. So, besides an outright lie and a bunch of fallacious accusations that I lied -
Spoiler: This is really tl;dr because cases are scummy, yo
You know what? Remember how CTD found me out in Boat? 'Assess posts based on how hard they'd be to fake for scum.' So. Looks at Post #115, Post #398. Look at them in context. Tell me that they're not easy to make and fake as scum, especially given context. Tell me that those cases aren't contrived and lacking in actual substance. Tell me Pasche is scumhunting. Tell me it's not just words words words. Go on.
There is a massive world of difference in her posts in her scumgames both structurally and in content. Most of her scumposts are long, quote-striped walls and feel less spontaneous than her shorter posts. This is true in all four of the scumgames I linked above. Tonally, she comes across as a lot more hedgy as she does here. Most of her early posts are fluffy walls that don't say or do much. She barely commits to positions. There are minor similarities in her positions here and in the Wizards game but major differences from AOT in every way imaginable. I'm going to go into a more detailed meta dive to be sure. I lean scum at this point but I'm not certain.- xRECKONERx
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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- Flipping Awesome
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Flipping Awesome Goon
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- Cerulean
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Cerulean Mafia Scum
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can someone please shoot me?
I mean my vca analysis mostly turned into a big ball of nothing, but making sure I was logged in before I submitted aparently is not in my fucking vocabulary, so losing it is frustrating regardless.
deep breath, try again. - Cerulean
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